USD/CAD:USD Faces Pressure Amid Eurozone Political UncertaintyEid Mubarak to all our Muslim brothers and sisters,
Permit me to do a detailed commentary of economic event on EUR, CAD, and USD.
Eurozone Political Instability Impacting the Euro
The Euro remains under significant pressure, primarily due to escalating fears of a financial crisis in France. Political turmoil and economic instability in the Eurozone, particularly in one of its key economies, have shaken investor confidence. This instability has led to a weaker Euro as investors seek safer assets, impacting currency markets globally.
Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Positive Economic Data
The Canadian Dollar, commonly referred to as the Loonie, saw a notable increase in value on Friday. This upward movement was driven by positive economic data from Canada, which reported a 1.1% rise in factory sales. The stronger-than-expected performance in the manufacturing sector has boosted investor confidence in the Canadian economy, thereby strengthening the Loonie.
Federal Reserve's Policy and Its Effects on USD
The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting introduced a slightly hawkish tone, which initially led to a rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. However, following the meeting, these expectations have diminished. The Fed’s stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, which has implications for the USD's strength. The reduced likelihood of significant rate cuts has provided some support to the US Dollar.
USD/CAD Outlook and Market Sentiment
Looking at the USD/CAD outlook for Monday, bearish momentum is evident as the US Dollar experiences a decline. This drop is largely attributed to the ongoing political uncertainty in the Eurozone, which has ripple effects across global financial markets. Despite the Fed’s hawkish hints, the prevailing sentiment reflects a cautious approach among investors, influenced by geopolitical and economic concerns.
In summary, while the US Dollar initially climbed due to Eurozone instability, the overall outlook for USD/CAD appears bearish. The interplay between Eurozone political issues, positive Canadian economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will continue to shape market dynamics in the near term.
Cheers and happy trading!
Canadiandollar
USD/CAD Edges Lower as Traders Eye Key US Economic DataUSD/CAD is trending lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.3750. This recent movement follows a notable reversal from the 1.3790 area, where technical indicators suggested a potential change in direction.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair exhibited signs of overbought conditions around the 1.3790 mark, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe. A divergence was observed, signaling that the bullish momentum was weakening and a reversal was likely. The pair has since edged lower, reflecting these technical signals.
Market Sentiment and Economic Data
The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which are anticipated to inject significant volatility into the trading environment. The key events include the release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.
Core CPI Data
The Core CPI data, set to be released today, is a critical measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices. This indicator is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the US Dollar and influencing the USD/CAD pair.
FOMC Decision
In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another pivotal event for the day. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will offer guidance on the central bank's outlook and future monetary policy actions. Market participants will be keenly observing any hints regarding the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments. The FOMC's tone and projections will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the USD/CAD pair.
Anticipated Volatility
Given the significance of these economic events, traders are preparing for heightened volatility. The Core CPI and FOMC decision are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a potential continuation of the reversal observed in the USD/CAD pair. Depending on the outcomes, we could see significant movements as traders react to the data and adjust their positions accordingly.
in conclusion USD/CAD is currently consolidating its recent losses around 1.3750, following a technical reversal from the 1.3790 area. The pair's future direction will likely be influenced by today's Core CPI release and the FOMC decision. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the economic data aligns with the technical indicators pointing towards a reversal.
NZDCAD: Bearish scenarios...! (Details on caption) By checking the hourly NZDCAD chart we can figure out that the bearish scenario is high probability.
the price cleared the liquidity above the daily candle and then shifted the market structure and also had a bearish reaction to the bearish order block.
Now, we can see the sell side liquidity which formed as equal lows, trend line liquidity, and daily FVG which can be our last target.
For seeing this bearish move I can expect two scenarios that you can see on the chart.
First, the price can move down from here.
second, because of the clean buy-side liquidity we can expect the price to sweep the liquidity first and then move down. (I prefer to follow this scenario)
As always we need LTF confirmation for entry.
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🔎 DYOR
🗓️07/06/2024
💡Wait for the update!
Something big is comingThe Canadian Dollar is loosing steam, for some reason is losing value across the board. Maybe bc oil apparently has peaked and now is turning over. I opened a long position last week on NZD/CAD but I think this pair looks better, EUR/CAD looks good too, even USD/CAD. It could take a few more weeks to break out. Keep adding at every pull back. CAD is the new Yen.
SL if price action turns bearish: lower lows.
CADJPY Buy signal initiated. Channel Up intact.The CADJPY pair extended the Channel Up flawlessly and hit our latest Target (April 02, see chart below):
The price is now breaking above the short-term Ascending Triangle, which within the long-term Channel Up has always issued a buy signal after the price approached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The immediate Target on both previous break-outs has bee the -0.382 Fib extension.
The 1D RSI is also posting that pre break-out consolidation. As a result we turn bullish again on this pair, targeting 116.500 (slightly below the -0.382 Fib).
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AUDCAD About to test the 1W MA200 after more than 1 year.The AUDCAD pair has been on a structured rise since the September 25 2023 Bottom, which technical is a Double Bottom formation for the long-term. The price is about to test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 as well as the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the February 22 2021 High.
Every time the pair approached the 1W MA200 to this distance, it broke above it, even just for the medium-term. We expect a similar development, which would be conveniently a Lower Highs test. Our Target is 0.92250.
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USDCAD Bearish trend intact. Not too late to sell.The USDCAD pair gave us a wonderful sell trade on our last analysis (April 17, see chart below) as we caught the exact moment of the rejection and reversal of the 4-month bullish trend:
The price has now broken below not just the (dotted) Channel Up but closed below the 1D MA50 too, confirming the trend shift to bearish. As you can see on this 1W chart, the pair always declined more following a break below the 1D MA50 and the minimum drop it has has been -3.23%.
As a result, our 1.34500 Target remains intact. A Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame may confirm an even deeper drop.
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EURCAD Short-term buy signal.The EURCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down for the past 15 months and right now is on a Bullish Leg towards its top. The 1D RSI is approaching the overbought barrier of 70.00 and we believe it will give a sell signal after it breaks above, just like November 21 2023 and July 14 2023.
Until then, we will stay bullish, targeting the top of the 15-month Channel Down at 1.49750.
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Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks.
Tuesday, May 28
Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia
Wednesday, May 29
Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc.
Thursday, May 30
Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada
Friday, May 31
8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP
Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank
The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
USDCAD Strong sell following today's rejection.USDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.081, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 32.778) as it formed a Lower High yesterday and today got sold aggressively. This is a Channel Down since the April 16th High, which having broken under the 1D MA50, has confirmed the continuation of the bearish price action. We expect the 1D RSI to at least hit the 30.000 level, as every rejection on the R1 Zone, saw the pair reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. We are bearish, aiming at that level (TP = 1.34350).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AUDCAD:🔴Bearish scenario...!🔴
Hello Traders
As you can see the price purged the daily buy-side liquidity and then the market structure was shifted on the hourly chart.
Now the price is inside a range, creating the double purge scenario for us.
If the price sweeps the buy side liquidity first, it is a chance to enter the sell position with LTF confirmation.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
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Will EURCAD pop higher?EURCAD EASYMARKETS:EURCAD
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Canadian Dollar Futures Trading Plan and ExplanationAfter analyzing options trades on CME, we found a promising opportunity to short Canadian Dollar. The option contract is for April with an expiration date of April 5, 2024.
We noticed an interesting option portfolio on March 22 that aligns with the trigger level on the futures chart (refer to chart). A trigger level is a graphical pattern on the underlying asset that
prompts traders to take or avoid specific trading actions.
For the Canadian futures chart, the trigger level is the price breakdown of the local resistance at 0.7403-0.07406. Opening long positions at the breakdown point was encouraged by the bullish shape and intensity of the candlestick with minimal shadows. This level was attractive for making purchases for both chartists and adepts of candlestick analysis.
The study of options trading has revealed that these levels are useful for opening counter positions when the price reaches them. To execute this strategy, smart traders use naked options in advance, specifically PUT options with a strike of 0.74. By utilizing the leverage effect of options, traders can create substantial short positions on futures contracts while maintaining a risk-free position for a limited time.
IMPORTANT! We do not expect the price to move towards the strike level. Instead, we recommend using the obtained exchange data and analyzing it to gain an edge when opening a trade, providing a better starting point and improving the risk/reward ratio.
NZDCAD Going for a 0.786 Rejection. Trade at the right time.The NZDCAD pair just completed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first since June 20 2023. Even though the price rebounded inside the 1.5 years Higher Lows Zone, the prevailing pattern since December 2023 is a Channel Down.
With the July 14 2023 High formed (and rejected) on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, it is possible to see a rejection on the new 0.786 Fib, which now happens to be exactly at the top of the Channel Down.
As a result, as long as the pair doesn't close a 1D candle above the 0.786 Fib, we are bearish, targeting 0.80300 (the -0.136 Fib extension). If the 1D candle gets closed above the 0.786 Fib, we will take the small loss and buy, targeting 0.85000.
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CADCHF About to turn bullish long-term.The CADCHF pair Has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since January 2023 but recently it has shown growing signs that the long-term bearish trend is coming to an end. First of all, it formed the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since April 01 2022. Since then, it has held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as Supports.
The strongest bullish development is that it turned the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), where it was rejected on September 29 2023, from a long-term Resistance to Support. The last time that this series of events happened following a 1D Golden Cross, was within December 2020 - January 2021. Even the 1D RSI fractals between the two are similar. What the past fractal did after turning those MAs into Supports, was rally aggressively above the previous Resistance.
As a result we turn bullish now on this pair, expecting the Channel Down to break upwards, and target 0.69650 (Resistance 1).
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