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Canadiandollar

EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Accelerating policy normalization, but just don’t call it that. The March ECB meeting saw the ECB surprise markets by speeding up their normalization pace with the APP set to increase to EUR 40bln in April and then lowered to EUR 30bln in May and EUR 20bln in June, with an aim of ending APP in Q3. This was quite a shift, and alongside 2024 HICP expected at 1.9% it meant a hike for 2022 is still on the table. However, even though the statement was hawkish, the ECB tried very hard to come across as dovish as possible, no doubt trying to get a soft landing. The bank broke the link between APP and rates by saying hikes could take place ‘some time’ after purchases end (previously said ‘shortly’ after they end). President Lagarde also stressed that the Ukraine/Russia war introduced a material risk to activity and inflation (and it’s too early to know what the full impact of this will be). As a result, she stresses more than once that their actions with the APP should not be seen as accelerating but rather as normalizing (pretty sure going from open-ended QE to done in the next quarter is accelerating but maybe owls play by the different rules). To further add dovishness Lagarde also said that the war in Ukraine means risks are now again titled to the downside, compared to ‘broadly balanced’. After the meeting STIR markets and bund yields jumped to price in close to 2 hikes by year-end again, but the dovish push back from Lagarde saw the EUR come under pressure, failing to benefit from higher implied rates. 2. Economic & Health Developments Growth differentials still favour the US over EU capital flows, but differentials have turned positive against the UK. Given growing stagflation fears the ECB is in a tough spot, possibly being forced to normalize policy to try and combat inflation but could as a result damage growth. Ongoing EU fiscal discussions to possibly allow ‘green bonds’ NOT to count against budget deficits remains in focus, alongside debt issuance for energy purchases. If approved, it will offer a flood of fiscal support which would be positive for the EUR and EU equities. Geopolitics The EUR pushed lower aggressively after initial geopolitical scares but have been trying to carve out a base. Proximity to the war and the impact of sanctions remains a risk if the situation deteriorates. With the already priced, chasing the lows on bad news is not as attractive as chasing the EUR higher on good news. 3. CFTC Analysis CFTC data gave very little sentiment signals with mixed positioning changes as upside in Large Specs and Leveraged Funds was mostly offset by a hefty reduction in net longs from Asset Managers. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI , noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation . With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics remain a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish positioning signal with Large Specs and Asset Managers increasing longs and Leverage Funds decreasing shorts. With Asset Manager net-longs reaching top 80 percentile levels (2007 base year) we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’ll wait for a potential hawkish BoC to use outsized strength for AUDCAD & USDCAD long opportunities.
by thunderpips
CAD/JPY Buy Set Up - Interest Rate Differentials The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Canada continues to aggressively raise Interest rates to fight off high inflation. Japan's domestic inflation is in stark contrast as Japan continues to struggle to hit the Bank of Japan's 2.00% target. I show the historical difference in interest rates on 10Year Government bonds having a big impact on the CAD/JPY exchange rate. Oil accounts for nearly 20% of Canada's exports and commodities make up a large proportion of export income. With commodities prices rallying around the world, the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen as more money comes flooding into the country, increasing the demand for the currency in exchange rates. #Forex #Currencies #Investing #CanadianDollar #CAD/JPY #Interestrates #InterestRateDifferentials
Long
by KayansMarkets
USDCAD Clear Channel Down until its invalidatedTime to update my USDCAD outlook made a month ago: As you see the Channel Down eventually prevailed and the divergence was created as the condition I set (breaking the dashed Lower Highs trend-line) was not fulfilled. The price is now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break above still has to overcome the top (Lower Highs) trend-line of the Channel Down. The RSI is also under Lower Highs pressure. A rejection there or on the 1D MA50, will extend the Channel Down pattern and the natural target will be the 1.22875 October 21 Low, currently the Support. A break above the Channel Down will be enough to restore the bullish trend on the long-term horizon, targeting the 1.33880 Resistance (October 29 2020 High). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI , noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation . With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics remain a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish positioning signal with Large Specs and Asset Managers increasing longs and Leverage Funds decreasing shorts. With Asset Manager net-longs reaching top 80 percentile levels (2007 base year) we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’ll wait for a potential hawkish BoC to use outsized strength for AUDCAD & USDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead Hoping for a hawkish BoC and a 50bsp but not for buying opportunities in the CAD. Following decent economic data as well as comments from BoC’s Kozicki (who said the bank will be 'forceful' to fight ‘hot’ inflation ) markets are pricing in close to a 90% chance of a 50bsp hike for this week’s meeting. At their previous meeting, Governor Macklem explained that starting QT would be the logical next step for policy, which means a QT announcement is also on the card and in line with consensus expectations. Given our med-term neutral outlook for the CAD, we are hoping for a hawkish BoC that not only delivers on a 50bsp hike as well as a QT start, but also providing signals of another 50bsp in June. The faster the market moves to price in another 50bsp hike as well as QT, the faster we’ll get to a peak hawkishness scenario. With >9 hikes expected by the end of 2022, a market that fully prices in another 50bsp hike after a hawkish BoC will such a lot of buyers in at the highs and when markets start repricing the curve lower that will set up good shorting opportunities against the CAD. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy No surprises from the BoJ at their March meeting. As usual, the BoJ continued their three decade long easy policy with Governor Kuroda dismissing any chances of starting to debate an exit from the current policy stance. The language and tone were very similar to their prior meeting where the bank remained committed to provide any additional easing if necessary and noted that the current geopolitical situation increases the risks and uncertainty for Japan’s economy. The bank did note that they expect inflation to rise to close to 2% in Q2 as a result of the recent upside in oil prices, but the governor did explain that recent fears of stagflation in places like Japan, EU and US are overdone. Furthermore, Governor Kuroda explained that rates in Japan will remain low and the rate differential between Japan and other major economies are expected to lead to a weaker currency and higher domestic price pressures in the months ahead. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is usually the primary driver. Economic data rarely proves market moving, and although monetary policy expectations can affect the JPY in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically more dominant. Even though the market’s overall risk tone saw a huge recovery and risk-on frenzy from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, recent developments have increased risks. With central banks tightening policy into an economic slowdown, risk appetite is jittery. Even though that doesn’t change our med-term bias for the JPY, it does means we should expect more risk sentiment ebbs and flows this year, and the heightened volatility can create strong directional moves in the JPY, as long as yields play their part. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares a strong inverse correlation to moves in US yield differentials. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y isn’t perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the market environment from both a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place. In this environment there could be mild upside risks for the JPY, but we should not look at the influence from yields in isolation and also weigh it up alongside underlying risk sentiment and price action in other safe havens. 4. CFTC Analysis Another increase in net-shorts for Large Specs & Leveraged Funds while Asset Managers trimmed some shorts, but net shorts for all three participant categories remain in the bottom 20% of lows going back to 2008. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the recent downside in price and increased net-shorts increases odds of punchy mean reversion with equities, US10Y and oil in focus. 5. The Week Ahead New Japan fiscal year, US yields and jawboning will be key focus points next week. After the big flush lower in the JPY in recent weeks, there is some question markets over how much part the Japanese fiscal year end played, and now that a new year has started whether that leads to some JPY repatriation. On the yield side, our med-term bias remains bearish on yields given the slowdown we’ve seen in growth data from the US, but with inflation expected to reach close to 9% the inflation story has been in the driver seat. That means, US CPI will be an important focus point for the JPY this week. After the big dip in the JPY, we’ve had numerous official chime in about the weakness, and even though they didn’t exactly push back against it, they’ve clearly taken notice. The bad attention does make any moves into the 130 for USDJPY both interesting and risky for bulls, so watching for further jawboning from Japanese officials will be on the radar as well. On the energy front, it’s important to keep in mind that Japan imports more than 90% of its energy consumption, and research from JP Morgan suggests that a WTI price of $150 could erode Japan’s current account surplus (which is one of the reasons the currency enjoys safe haven appeal), which means yields and oil remain very important drivers.
by thunderpips
1
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see a solid recovery, also thanks to expected recovery in China China – With the PBoC stepping up stimulus & expectations of further fiscal support in 1H22, the projected recovery in China bodes well for Australia as China makes up close to 40% of Australian exports. It also means the growing virus cases and lockdowns and subsequent miss in recent Chinese PMI data does pose short-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, and rising prices has seen huge support for AUD on the terms of trade boost. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments are important. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis It’s taken many weeks of stretched positioning, but AUD net-shorts have continued to unwind and have moved out of stretched territory with the recent CFTC data update. After a decent run higher, price action has been looking stretched, which means we’ll prefer deeper pullbacks before initiating new med-term AUD longs. 5. The Week Ahead The jobs report will be the highlight for Aussie data this week. Markets are not expecting a monster print but forecasting enough employment gains to push the Unemployment Rate below 3.9% (close to record lows of 3.8%). At this stage in the game, it’s unlikely that either a miss or a beat would change anything for the rate outlook as markets already pushed back unrealistic rate expectations for a May hike to June. Given stretched pricing for the AUDCAD, a miss would suite our bias well if it can be accompanied by a hawkish BoC as that could provide us with a decent pullback to buy back at more attractive levels. Apart from the RBA focus will also be on China and commodities. Any further stimulus promises or measures from China will be important. For commodities, the geopolitical tensions have seen commodity prices surge and have given Australia’s terms of trade a solid boost. As commodities have been supported by geopolitical stress and stimulus hopes from China, anything that dents that optimism and sees mean reversion in commodities will be important to watch for the AUD. This also means that the AUD might counterintuitively trade mixed on geopolitical de-escalations depending on how commodities react. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI , noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation . With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics remain a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish positioning signal with Large Specs and Asset Managers increasing longs and Leverage Funds decreasing shorts. With Asset Manager net-longs reaching top 80 percentile levels (2007 base year) we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’ll wait for a potential hawkish BoC to use outsized strength for AUDCAD & USDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead Hoping for a hawkish BoC and a 50bsp but not for buying opportunities in the CAD. Following decent economic data as well as comments from BoC’s Kozicki (who said the bank will be 'forceful' to fight ‘hot’ inflation ) markets are pricing in close to a 90% chance of a 50bsp hike for this week’s meeting. At their previous meeting, Governor Macklem explained that starting QT would be the logical next step for policy, which means a QT announcement is also on the card and in line with consensus expectations. Given our med-term neutral outlook for the CAD, we are hoping for a hawkish BoC that not only delivers on a 50bsp hike as well as a QT start, but also providing signals of another 50bsp in June. The faster the market moves to price in another 50bsp hike as well as QT, the faster we’ll get to a peak hawkishness scenario. With >9 hikes expected by the end of 2022, a market that fully prices in another 50bsp hike after a hawkish BoC will such a lot of buyers in at the highs and when markets start repricing the curve lower that will set up good shorting opportunities against the CAD.
by thunderpips
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Friday’s CFTC update had mixed changes with no clear sentiment shifts. Large Specs increased net longs while Leveraged Funds reducing recent net-shorts. Asset Managers slightly trimmed net longs but with Asset Manager longs in top 80 percentile going back to 2007 some unwind is to be expected at some stage. 4. The Week Ahead Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be in focus for the USD in the week ahead. The focus for the USD with the incoming data points this week will fall to the growth side. With close to 9 and an earlier start to QT priced in, the odds of an upside surprise to inflation providing policy-inspired upside is looking thin, but if an upside surprise starts to spark more growth concerns that could give the USD another lift. In the off chance that inflation surprises to the downside, the stretched upside we’ve seen in the USD alongside recent policy expectations could see some decent downside in the USD. But chances of a surprise lower seem very unlikely, but also means that the reaction could be exacerbated given the one-side expectations for higher inflation in. That also means that Retail Sales and Industrial Production will once again be in focus where both data points have been showing signs of faster deceleration with recent prints. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another faster-than-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that Retail Sales and Industrial Production surprise higher, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI, noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation. With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand, global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term. Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility. We remain cautious oil, but geopolitics remain a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish positioning signal with Large Specs and Asset Managers increasing longs and Leverage Funds decreasing shorts. With Asset Manager net-longs reaching top 80 percentile levels (2007 base year) we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’ll wait for a potential hawkish BoC to use outsized strength for AUDCAD & USDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead Hoping for a hawkish BoC and a 50bsp but not for buying opportunities in the CAD. Following decent economic data as well as comments from BoC’s Kozicki (who said the bank will be 'forceful' to fight ‘hot’ inflation) markets are pricing in close to a 90% chance of a 50bsp hike for this week’s meeting. At their previous meeting, Governor Macklem explained that starting QT would be the logical next step for policy, which means a QT announcement is also on the card and in line with consensus expectations. Given our med-term neutral outlook for the CAD, we are hoping for a hawkish BoC that not only delivers on a 50bsp hike as well as a QT start, but also providing signals of another 50bsp in June. The faster the market moves to price in another 50bsp hike as well as QT, the faster we’ll get to a peak hawkishness scenario. With >9 hikes expected by the end of 2022, a market that fully prices in another 50bsp hike after a hawkish BoC will such a lot of buyers in at the highs and when markets start repricing the curve lower that will set up good shorting opportunities against the CAD.
by thunderpips