EUR/CAD: Leveraging Range-Bound Trading OpportunitiesThe EUR/CAD pair, since January 1st, 2023, has been traversing within a defined range, characterized by notable reversals between support and resistance levels. Recent market movements have unveiled a potential reversal pattern, signaling opportunities for astute traders.
Initiating from its recent peak at 1.5050, EUR/CAD has embarked on a new trajectory, marked by a reversal pattern that warrants close attention. Notably, during Friday's trading session, the price encountered resistance, failing to surpass the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its preceding lower low. This development underscores the significance of technical analysis in discerning potential market movements.
Moreover, seasonal trends play a pivotal role in shaping price dynamics, and EUR/CAD is no exception. Historical data indicates a seasonal pattern where prices tend to decline until October. Armed with this insight, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalize on anticipated price movements.
At our trading desk, we are closely monitoring these developments, poised to seize opportunities presented by the current market configuration. Leveraging our analysis, we are inclined to open a short position, targeting the 1.4200 level. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the possibility of further downward movement, potentially breaching the support level of the established range area.
Canadiandollar
GBPCAD Sell the spikeThe GBPCAD pair gave us a solid short-term sell signal last time (January 29, see chart below):
At the moment it is declining within a Channel Down pattern which emerged after the 6th rejection on the Resistance Zone. Having broken below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we are expecting a short-term rebound to price the new Lower High and fail on the 1D MA50 test as a Resistance.
There is a strong Support confluence below, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and Support 1 (1.67685), our Target is at 1.6700, marginally below those on the dashed Higher Lows trend-line, always above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
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CADJPY: Follow the breakout or rejection. Low risk trades.CADJPY is just above the bullish barrier on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.297, MACD = 0.230, ADX = 26.548) despite the fact that it is near the HH trendline of the Ascending Triangle and supported at the same time by the 1D MA50. Technically this calls for a decline and the minimum inside this pattern is the 1D MA200 (TP = 109.350). If it crosses over the HH trendline and closes a 1D candle over it, we will go long, aiming at the top of the Channel Up that will prevail (TP = 115.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCAD Near the 5-month High. Strong SELL.The USDCAD pair hit our 1.36200 Target (February 09, see chart below) and even broke above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone:
The price now sits at the top of the 2024 Channel Up, a similar pattern with the July 14 - November 01 2023 Channel Up. In fact the pair is approaching that November 01 High (Resistance 1) and being at the same time on an overbought 1D RSI while the 1W RSI is approaching the 13-month Resistance Zone, is turning into a very strong sell again.
Such tops have given a minimum of -3.23% declines (February 02 2023) during this 18-month period that the pair has been ranging. As a result, our new medium-term Target is 1.34500.
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AUDCAD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.713, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 36.219) as it is testing the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 periods at the bottom of February's Channel Up. This is a technical buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk, since as long as the Channel Up holds, we can target a Higher High at +2.30% (TP = 0.90500) like the one before. If the Channel Up breaks the loss will be minimal and we'll be able to short and target the S1 level (TP = 0.87300).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCAD Best sell entry in 6 months.The USDCAD pair is crossing over the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the long term range since October 2022.
The last two times it did that break out, it turned into the most efficient sell opportunity. Last time to do so was on November 1st 2023.
With the 1day RSI also deep into the overbought region, we turn bearish.
Sell and target 1.3300 (0.236 Fib, it has been hit all times the pattern gave this sell signal).
Previous chart:
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EURCAD: Quick short opportunity + bonus for long term.EURCAD marginally turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.842, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 27.243) as it hit both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 today. That is dead neutral on a 15 month basis as the pair has been on a wide ranged price action since the start of 2023. Currently it sits exactly at the middle of this pattern on the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This gives us the opportunity for a quick short term sell on the HL trendline (TP = 1.45750). The HL trendline has always been crossed downwards these 1.5 years so if we see a crossing under the 0.618 Fibonacci, we will sell again and target the 0.786 Fib (TP = 1.43650).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCAD - Long Trade IdeaThis is a long trade idea I have, based on the abundance of buyside liquidity in the form of relative equal highs that extend beyond the left of the chart, as well as the trendline resistance building up below it. Whilst it is possible for price to make new lows, my focus is on HOW and WHEN price reacts when it gets to this POI.
Although the DXY seems overextended, many of the XXXUSD pairs have yet to reach their draw on liquidity, furthermore, they have created even more relative equal lows. This further adds to my USDCAD bias. My only concern is that the DXY generally sees more seasonally bearish sentiment during the month of April.
Let's see what pans out.
- R2F
CADJPY Triangle break-out buyThe CADJPY pair delivered us a very strong buy opportunity last time we made a buy call on it (December 22 2023, see chart below) :
Moving back to the 1D time-frame, the pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 07 2023 Low. Currently on its 2nd Bullish Leg, the price has entered a Triangle consolidation, similar to the pattern of January - February.
So far the fractals appear to be quite identical as following a +3.34%, the price pulled-back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is at the moment holding. As long as it continues to do so, we expect a bullish break-out similar to February's towards the -0.382 Fib extension, hence our Target is 113.500.
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AUDCAD Sell opportunity with Death Cross emergingThe AUDCAD pair is on a Lower Highs rejected and ahead of a Death Cross formation on the 1D time-frame. Since 2022, we have seen two Falling Wedge patterns, which accelerated selling after the completion of a 1D Death Cross. The first target on both occasions was the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we are bearish on this pair, targeting 0.86500 (Fib 1.236 ext).
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EURCAD Medium-term Sell SignalThe EURCAD pair has been trading within a 12-month Channel Down and is currently reversing after a Double Top rejection on Resistance 1 (1.47825). Following the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, this has the potential to initiate Phase 2 of the Bearish Leg that started on the November 21 2023 Lower High.
Technically this should be at least a -4.47% Bearish Wave, similar to the rejection that started on August 30 2023. As a result our Target is 1.41600 (Support 2).
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USDCAD: Short term buyUSDCAD is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.021, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 15.874) as the price has been mostly ranging within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci zone for the past two months. The 1D MA50 held and the push crossed over the 1D MA100 again, so on the short term we expect a HH on the 0.382 Fibonacci (TP = 1.36400). After that test, the price action since October 2022 (which is sideways) shows that most likely a pullback under the 0.618 Fib is to be expected.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCAD Short-term sell signal to the December Low.The USDCAD pair gave us a strong buy signal last time we traded it (February 09, see chart below) but was rejected right under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
A similar rejection happened on December 07 2022 and April 25 2023 which resulted into a sell-off to the lower Support Zone. Even though the medium-term pattern is a (dashed) Channel Up, the recent Bearish Cross formation can initiate a sell-off to the lower Support Zone similar to those we mentioned before. The confirmation would be a 1D candle closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up.
As a result our short-term target is 1.32300 (just above the Support Zone). A closing above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone, invalidates that.
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EUR/CAD Analysis: Daily Zones and Cautions
Traders,
Let's assess EUR/CAD's daily zones and accompanying considerations:
Wait for LTF Confirmations: Exercise patience and await confirmations from lower time frames before making trading decisions.
Monthly RSI: Suggests a range zone, indicating potential stability.
Weekly RSI: Indicates a potential bearish move, urging caution regarding long trades.
Daily RSI: Signals more bearish days ahead, reinforcing the need for caution.
Daily Chart: Presents a bullish channel, providing a potential avenue for upward movement.
1-Hour Chart: Identifies a buy zone around a broken level and a sell zone near the supply zone.
Be mindful of these dynamics and ensure thorough analysis before entering trades.
Best regards,