GBPCAD Analysis(➡️RR=2.00)🏃♂️ GBPCAD is moving near 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡and 200_SMA(Daily) .
🌊Regarding Elliott Wave theory , GBPCAD is completing the Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) corrective structure.
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys .
🔔I expect GBPCAD to rise to at least the 🔴 Resistance zone(1.715 CAD-1.700 CAD) 🔴 after breaking the Resistance line .
British Pound/Canadian Dollar ( GBPCAD ) 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Canadiandollar
USDCAD,🟢Possible scenarios (Read the caption)
Well, as you can see the market structure is still bullish.
Now there are two modes that I will explain.
The first one, there is a strong demand zone that can hold the price and push it up. This demand zone is located at the 0.705 Fibonacci level which makes it more reliable.
The second scenario is the price continues the retracement to the extreme bullish order block which grabbed the liquidity and created the FVG.
The TPs of both scenarios are the same, the first TP can be the strong supply zone that we expect the bearish reaction on this zone and the final TP is the previous high.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️29/01/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
USD/CAD Faces Strong Resistance:Technical / Fundamental AnalysisUSD/CAD Faces Strong Resistance:Technical / Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair has encountered a pivotal juncture, rejecting the 78.6% Fibonacci Level around 1.3530 during the early European hours on Friday. This article explores the technical and fundamental factors influencing this rejection and delves into the broader economic landscape affecting the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Technical Analysis:
The rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci Level, situated at 1.3530, signals a noteworthy development. The price is met with strong resistance, marked by the confluence of the Fibonacci level and a bearish dynamic trendline. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from overbought conditions, hinting at a potential downward move aligning with the prevailing trend.
Market Overview:
Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 103.40, reflecting the broader strength of the USD. Notably, the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons stand at 4.35% and 4.15%, respectively. Despite these positive indicators, the rejection at the critical Fibonacci level suggests a potential shift in momentum for the USD/CAD pair.
Fundamental Influences:
Monthly US Housing Starts exceeded expectations in December, reaching 1.46 million against the anticipated 1.426 million. Building Permits (MoM) also reported growth, surpassing the market consensus at 1.495 million. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on January 12 decreased to 187K from the previous reading of 203K, showcasing resilience in the US labor market.
On the flip side, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has found support from elevated crude oil prices, a critical factor given Canada's status as the largest oil exporter to the United States. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $73.90 per barrel, contributing to CAD strength as Crude Oil stockpiles decline.
Conclusion:
The rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci Level for USD/CAD, coupled with the confluence of technical resistance and bearish signals, suggests a potential shift in the pair's momentum. While positive economic indicators support the USD, the Canadian Dollar gains strength from robust crude oil prices. Traders should monitor these technical and fundamental dynamics closely, as they navigate the complexities of the forex market. As always, prudent risk management and a keen awareness of market conditions are crucial in making informed trading decisions.
Our preference
SHORT positions Below 1.36300 with targets at 1.34000 & 1.32500 in extension.
GBPCAD SHORTSGBPCAD since the beginning of the week have been moving bearish and in respect to this, I plan to stick to the trend, the daily and the weekly also shows the bearish trend, and to follow this I expect this pair to retrace to the 50 Exponential moving average and we short to the 800 Exponential moving average.
GBPCAD Quadruple top on 1D?The GBPCAD pair delivered a solid buy trade last time we analyzed it (October 05 2023, see chart below), easily hitting the 1.71110 Target, on a structure rise:
The price is now signaling a bearish call as it has been rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the July 17 2023 High. This is technically a Quadruple Top if it stays that way and naturally there is strong sell potential behind it. The natural support levels are the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the latter of which is trading exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line, which is our first Target (1.6950).
If the price closes below the 1D MA200 and Higher Lows trend-line, we will re-short and target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is just below Support 1. What makes selling a stronger probability right now is the formation of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross, which has been a sell signal with 100% accuracy for the whole 2023.
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Cad/Jpy Capturing the Yield SpreadThe recent Houthi attacks on oil tankers have escalated geopolitical tensions, particularly impacting the global oil market and consequently influencing the Canadian dollar (CAD) as a commodity currency. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) cautious stance post-earthquake suggests potential extensions of accommodative measures.
Geopolitical uncertainties, especially in the oil market, tend to affect the CAD due to its correlation with commodity prices. This situation may create an opportunity for a CAD/JPY long position, considering the CAD's sensitivity to oil price fluctuations amid heightened tensions.
Strategic entry points, coupled with diligent monitoring of oil market developments and BOJ's policy announcements, could present favorable conditions for a CAD/JPY long trade, with the anticipation of potential CAD movements amid evolving geopolitical dynamics
CADJPY - BULLISH MOVE 📈
As We Talked in The Previous Analysis:
On Thursday 07 Dec, The CADJPY Reached a Support Level (106.050 - 105.536).
The CADJPY Price Broke The Resistance Level (107.694 - 108.284).
This Key Level Becomes a New Support Level.
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Currently,
The Price Pull Back to Important Structure
and Now it Will Continue its Bullish Movement !
TARGET: 109.230🎯
Cad/Jpy bounce backTrade Idea for CADJPY
Bias: Very Bullish
Overall Score: 9
Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: 3
Institutional traders are showing a robust bullish sentiment towards CADJPY, indicating a forecast of continued upside.
Retail Sentiment: 1
Retail traders appear to be bearish on CADJPY. Given the tendency for retail traders to often be on the losing side, their bearish sentiment serves as a contrarian bullish signal for us, supporting our bullish view.
Seasonality: 1
Current seasonal trends favor a bullish momentum for CADJPY.
Trend Reading: 2
CADJPY is on an upward trajectory, further underscoring the bullish momentum.
GDP Growth: -1
A slight negative in GDP growth, but the dominant bullish indicators more than compensate for this.
Inflation: 2
Inflation metrics are aligning favorably, adding to the bullish outlook.
Unemployment: 0
Unemployment figures are neutral and do not sway our primary bullish perspective.
Interest Rates: 1
Interest rate dynamics are pointing to CADJPY strength.
Additional Factor: Increasing Oil Prices
Canada's role as a major oil exporter means rising oil prices often buoy the CAD. This backdrop solidifies our bullish stance on CADJPY.
Conclusion: With a mix of strong bullish indicators, particularly the COT bias, retail sentiment (considered contrarily), trend direction, and rising oil prices, CADJPY appears poised for bullish movement.
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CADJPY Confirmed buy signalThe CADJPY pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the March 2020 market bottom. The recent rejection on the 1.5 Fibonacci level back to the 0.5 show it test and hold an important Support, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has only broken once in 3 years (since November 2020) and that was during last year's inflation crisis.
As long as it holds, it is a strong buy opportunity and evidence for that is the 1W RSI which has printed the same pattern (Channel Down break into a rebound) as the September 26 2022 and August 16 2021 lows. Both initiated rebounds that hit their prior Resistance levels.
As a result, we are taking this opportunity to buy and target the previous Resistance (from the September 25 High) at 111.000.
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AUDCAD Buy signal on 1D Golden Cross.The AUDCAD pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern that has currently been rejected twice on Resistance 1 (0.905500). With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing today (or tomorrow the latest) above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to complete a 1D Golden Cross, and the 1D MACD forming now a Bullish Cross, we have a strong case for a break-out above Resistance 1 this time.
Once this takes place, we will buy and target 0.9200 as the new Higher High of the Channel Up. It will be a +3.76% rise from the recent Higher Low, which is roughly the % rise of the previous 2 bullish legs.
Bonus material (past AUDCAD trade):
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USDCAD Bullish signal emerged inside a 15 month Rectangle.USDCAD has hit the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the 15 month Rectangle pattern after a continuous decline since the November 1st High.
This level has been a technical buy entry on 5 occassions.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.36350 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has printed a Falling Support, which has been a bottom formation on April 13th and June 22nd.
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