Canadian Dollar Futures6C Futures hit a major support level
Bullish push has already started
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Trading with proper risk management.***
Canadiandollarfutures
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.77970
Pivot: 0.77300
Support : 0.76465
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.77300 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.77970 where the swing high resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.76465 where the overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: Stronger than anticipated Canadian sales data on Friday helped to balance out the DXY's volatility, allowing USDCAD to trade in consolidation below 1.29. The USDCAD is projected to trade lower because to the recent drop in energy prices and the weakening in the DXY. This gives us a weak bullish view of the Canadian Dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77305
Pivot: 0.76450
Support : 0.75615
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76450 where the overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection are to the 1st support at 0.75615 in line with the swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance is.
Fundamentals: As a result of the BoC rate increase of 100bps recently, we have a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77305
Pivot: 0.76850
Support : 0.76430
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76850 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.76430 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: The BoC is expected to increase rates to 2.25%, a 75 bps increase, giving us a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77125
Pivot: 0.76835
Support : 0.76460
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76835 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 0.76460 where the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing low support are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77125 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.
Fundamentals: As sentiment over the BoC increasing rates by 75bps continues to grow, we have a bearish view of the canadian dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77755
Pivot: 0.77410
Support : 0.76840
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 0.77410 in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.76840 where the swing low support and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head to the 1st resistance at 0.77755 where the swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Recent Canadian Dollar strength had been slightly reversed with Canadian GDP month-on-month being released at 0.3% (Previous: 0.7%) indicating a slow down in economic activity and growth, giving us a medium bearish view on the Canadian Dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.78315
Pivot: 0.77760
Support : 0.77475
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken out of descending trendline which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.77760 where the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.78315 in line with pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 0.77475 in line with the overlap support.
Fundamentals: As oil prices climb due to the introduction of more sanctions from the G7, and as sentiment for a 75bps rate hike firms, look for the CAD to continue strengthening against the USD, giving us a medium bullish view.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.77455
Pivot: 0.76955
Support : 0.76460
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline which gives us a bearish bias that prices will drop to the pivot at 0.76955 where the 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has dropped to pivot , we would expect bearish momentum to carry prices to 1st support at 0.76460 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance level at 0.77455 in line with the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: A stronger than expected CPI data (Actual: 1.4% Expected 1.0%) overnight helped the CAD find some strength against the USD. With the CPI data reinforcing market expectation for the BoC to hike rates by 75bps at the next meeting, look for the CAD to continue strengthening into the US session, giving us a medium bullish bias for the canadian dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77520
Pivot: 0.77310
Support : 0.76480
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 0.77310 in line with the swing high resistance to the 1st support at 0.76480 in line with the 161.80% fibonacci extension, 100% fibonacci projection and swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77520 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: The prospect of a more aggressive Fed saw further gains in the USD/CAD pair. At the same time, an oversold CAD is deemed from the equally hawkish BoC and firm oil prices resulting in mixed to weak bullish view for the Canadian Dollar Future.
USDCAD hitting the support of channel | A good long opportunityPriceline of US Dollar / Canadian Dollar forex pair is moving within an up channel and now hitting the channel's support.
Volume profile of complete channel is showing less interest of traders at channel's support
But MACD is strong bearish and Stochastic is strong bearish so i would suggest if the MACD turns weak bearish or Stochastic gives bull cross then buy or take the long position.
I have used Fibonacci sequence to set the sell targets:
Sell between: 1.33413 to 1.35527
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
CADUSD broke out the triangle but a strong resistance aheadThe price action was moving within a symmetrical triangle and after hitting the support it made double bottom at the support of triangle.
In the meanwhile the price line had also completed the formation of gartley and entered in potential reversal zone moreover the volume profile is also showing a very low interest of people to trade below that area.
The double bottom formation and potential reversal zone of gartley and low interest of people as per volume profile produced a powerful bull thrust so the price action broke out the resistance of the triangle.
Now the price action is moving up the trader's interest is too high between 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci (upto $78.50), and above @78.50 can be a strong sell area coz.
The pivot resistance is above the strong sell area.
And we have a pivot point beneath the price action which can pull down the price action after hitting the area between 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci of A to D leg of gartley.
But the final decision can be made when the price action will be entered in 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci after that we need to see the movement of price action and all indicators if they will give bearish signals then we can sell.
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
LOONIE (CANADIAN DOLLAR INDEX) (CXY) DAILY TIMEFRAME SHORTThe Loonie index is currently moving in a downtrend, as shown by the lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe. This is also in sync with the commodities markets (crude oil, well and even gold), which have been experiencing bear pressure lately. It is no secret that currencies like the Loonie (Canadian dollar), Aussie (Australian dollar) and the Kiwi (New Zealand dollar) are driven by commodities. The outlook of the commodities market can give us a bias towards these currencies especially if their movements are in harmony.
If the index can break above the 75 price level, then we could see a potential bull run. For now, our bias remains bearish with potential targets around the 72 price level.
Canadian Dollar: Potential Bullish Butterfly at 50% RetracementI am looking for a buy in the PRZ shown based on the bullish Butterfly pattern as well as 50% retracement level.
From an Elliot Wave perspective, if the move up from the recent bottom was all a first wave then this is the minimum retracement I would expect for the second wave. In this case we are getting ready for Wave 3 which would likely be pretty amazing.
This was also previously a supply zone which now could be turned to demand, if you believe that sort of thing (I am not too sure about it myself).
My stop loss for the butterfly is below the 1.414 extension, shown by the red horizontal ray. However if I am stopped out I will likely still look for chances to long from lower, perhaps based on a larger bullish pattern, unless there is a strong move down before then.
This will be a continuation of my previous CAD trade which I have linked below. I will be looking to employ the same strategy as in that idea once price reaches the PRZ, and still optimistic that bull flag will break up someday!
Canadian Dollar Futures: FlagI know it is not advisable to try and pick a bottom..I have learned this lesson many times. However when I noticed today price had dipped below the .618...Daily RSI was in oversold territory... and it made a pinbar on the 5 minute chart with decent volume...I decided to take a shot. But I am going to try a different approach to catching a bottom this time.
My plan is to try to long from this .618 area when I see a bullish candle/pinbar on the low time frames with my stop below that candle. I will move the stops to breakeven/cover costs after I am up some pips.
This might not be a great plan, but I see it as a way to potentially catch a large move without using a large stop loss which might get spiked out anyway. If the Canadian Dollar is going to start a large move up anytime soon, then I might just get lucky enough to get in with the small risk and hold on for the longer term move.
I believe this idea is also in accordance with a quote I have recently found by Paul Tudor Jones:
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”
I am not saying he means exactly what I am trying here but...I think it fits the overall strategy for this trade.
I am happy to hear (read) any comments on this idea or strategy. Wish me luck!
P.S. A big thank you to @MaryJane for her educational posts on the 1-2-3 Trading Strategy and the Flag Pattern (linked below), both of which have helped me with my trading and analyses!
