EUR/USD - Are We On The Verge Of A Sustained Bull-Run?From the opening on Monday to Fridays close, Euro has been on an absolute TEAR to the upside with little to no manipulated spikes to the downside confirming this weeks bullish bias with flying colours.
Originally, the first point of interest was the 1.04542 - 1.04444 daily inverted SIBI but as we saw aggression when trading through it, 1.05368 is the next bullish draw.
We have yet to reach buyside liquidity yet but we have attacked the consequent encroachment of the last up close candle wick @ 1.05127 in which we saw a rejection.
Bullish projection this week has been superb! Looking out for a continuation to the upside, closing 1.25127 and a rally up to 1.05368.
Longer term bullish draw up to 1.06826 - 1.06098 is still in play but I want to see how the delivery above 1.05368 plays a role in the possible continuation of bullish price action.
Candlestick Analysis
Dow Jones (March Contract) - I Am Sceptical About All-Time HighsUnlike Nasdaq and S&P 500 where their PD arrays was discounted, Dow Jones is showing a different story.
45000 is a stanch psychological resistance level for a number of reasons. For one, a weekly liquidity void in the past aligns with a prior daily SIBI (which price redelivered into and rebalanced 100% of the range) and another gap in the form of a volume imbalance created last week Thursday 6th going into Friday 7th which Dow has rejected this Friday.
Very tight range Dow is working in at the moment and I don’t have the confidence yet to predict Dow jones reaching up into the all-time highs territory yet. There is still a lot more resistance levels to break through compared to ES or NQ.
Going into next week, I want to see 45000 cleared.
Ideally, I want to see a candle body closure above 45227.
Dow Jones is last in the race to attack ATH.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Taking Nasdaq On A DateMe and Nasdaq had a GREAT time last week; riding the lows and highs from sunrise to sunset. Even though the initial target of Mon 27th Daily candles wick encroachment was met, the upside potential was astounding.
Besides that, NASDAQ’s price action over the past 2 months has been lacklustre, struggling to trend and stay in one direction but it’s no surprise as with all the geopolitical drama happening all over the world has caused many institutional traders to sit on their hands and wait.
S&P 500 (March 2025) - A Whole Heap Of Mumbo JumboThe markets is not presenting low resistance liquidity runs due to all the politics and tariffs being implemented right now but once things settle, ES will be in for the chance to test all time highs once again.
What we saw is perfection with the alignment of my bearish bias and how price respected the daily FVG @ $5,950 (mapped out with the red rectangle tool) on the Sunday going into Monday before repricing higher inside of the gap.
Dollar Index - Trump & TariffsWith a lot of fundamental conflicts at play, one being the tariffs war on China, EU, Mexico and Canada (we don’t know yet if any more countries will be affected), we are seeing the result in price action.
We are trading in a range from 110.176 - 106.969 and so far, Dollar has managed to support the weekly BISI @ the 107.500 region but also trade up to and reject the 109.770 HTF PD array.
Ultimately, it will be fundamental news that will grant dollar the necessary volatility to run to liquidity pools. My guess, to the downside
Long trade
Buyside Trade
Pair: BTCUSD
Date: Sunday, 16th February 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 8:15 AM (NY Time)
Trade Details:
Entry: 96,672.5
Profit Level: 97,635.5 (+1.00%)
Stop Level: 96,626.0 (-0.05%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 20.17
Reason: Observing price reached a pivotal demand level confirmed with a buyside momentum once the price reached 96,672.5...
ZB1! - Immaculate Draw on Buystops! What’s Next?This weeks breakdown covers the similarities bonds and yields have and as mentioned in my most recent analysis with Yields, I was loooking for a draw down to discounted prices.
With that bias in mind, Bonds would be more likely to trade higher as they both highly correlated.
Short trade
15min TF overview
Sellside Trade
Pair: BTCUSD
Date: Sunday, 16th February 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 7:15 AM (NY Time)
Entry 30min TF
Observed 4Hr TF
Trade Details:
Entry: 97,198.0
Profit Level: 96,863.5 (+0.34%)
Stop Level: 97,320.5 (-0.13%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.73
Reason: This sellside trade is based on market structure, liquidity sweeps, and session timing, proceeding from NY to LND Session.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Period of Consolidation and Uncertainty⚠️ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Wave Analysis
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a wide horizontal range on the daily chart after a strong bullish rally.
- **Resistance Zone:** 106,027 - 109,582 (Aligns with the All-Time High resistance)
- **Support Zone:** 89,378 - 92,797
There are two possible scenarios based on price action at these key levels:
1. **Bullish Breakout:** A confirmed breakout and close above resistance could trigger another upward wave, targeting at least 120,040.
2. **Bearish Breakdown:** A break below support may indicate a corrective move.
It is advisable to wait for a decisive breakout before making trading decisions.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Consolidation and Complete Indecision Here is the wave analysis for ⚠️BITCOIN
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a wide horizontal range on a daily, following a strong bullish move.
The resistance of the range is between 109,582 and 106,027, while the support is between 92,797 and 89,378.
The upper boundary of the range aligns with the All-Time High resistance.
Depending on how the price reacts to the range boundaries, there are two potential scenarios. If the price breaks and closes above the resistance, we can expect another bullish wave towards at least 120,040.
On the other hand, a bearish breakout below the support could signal a correctional movement.
It is advisable to wait for a breakout before making any trading decisions.
GbpUsd could continue its reboundAfter breaking above the falling trendline from the end of January, GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase between 1.23 and 1.25.
Recently, the pair tested the support zone once more and began to rebound.
In my opinion, the upward movement will continue, and we could see a test of the next resistance above 1.26.
In conclusion, I am looking to buy dips below 1.24, with invalidation occurring on a daily close below 1.23.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
PENGU Update: Not looking as good. I was hopeful for a nice rally from here, but PENGU is now looking quite questionable after its failed breakout.
It has room to make it to the next fib level down which is the .786 pocket if it wants to. That is from .005591-.006454.
We could still pivot from this area, but I wanted to post this because I called a long from this area, and now it is looking a lot more grim after we got reversal candle on the 12H, followed by a confirmation candle. That is strong for a new coin that is in a downtrend.
Thank you!
S&P 500 (March 2025) - A Whole Heap Of Mumbo JumboThe markets is not presenting low resistance liquidity runs due to all the politics and tariffs being implemented right now but once things settle, ES will be in for the chance to test all time highs once again.
What we saw is perfection with the alignment of my bearish bias and how price respected the daily FVG @ $5,950 (mapped out with the red rectangle tool) on the Sunday going into Monday before repricing higher inside of the gap.
Made in England.. FTSE 100 Triangle BreakoutFinally the long term triangle pattern in blue chip UK stocks has broken - and the weekly chart for the FTSE 100 index is looking very positive.
The breakout weekly candle is a long one with a close right near the highs - showing bulls are well in control of the market.
We can see the triangle break in more granular detail on the daily chart with the break confirmed on Thursday and a strong follow-through move on Friday.
Support is found first at the former all time high (8450-8475) then back at the broken trendline from the triangle pattern.
These support levels define our risk - the price back inside the triangle will inform us the breakout has failed - this time at least.
But if things move as we expect, using the height of the triangle pattern as a price objective from the breakout point, the UK 100 could reach 9,000.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Comments welcome :)
cheers!
Jasper
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Weekly USDCAD Short - Wyckoff Upthrust & a triple topAfter the second week closed below the highest bar that poked the previous high we have a strong confirmation to short this Upthrust to the downside. The Poke bar on its own is a sizable one. Our final target is the downside of this range. We also have a Triple Top bearing. On the monthly chart, we are coming from a big downtrend although, on the weekly chart, we can say this is a countertrend trade - we bet that we are in a range at the moment.
Giving and option for take profit target and a final one.
That will be a fairly long trade if it works out properly.
Next week Idea The rejection at 33.165 was massive. I saw it late that's why I didn't share in my insight before the massive drop form that point of interest.
Next wee might just be bearish for most of the days, probably Tuesday would be the weekly high, Thursday and Friday weekly low.
What's your insights on Silver?
Kindly boost of you find this insightful 🫴
Near Protocol AnalysisNear Protocol Analysis:
Near Protocol is currently trading at 3.565, having recently broken through a critical support level. This breakdown has altered the technical structure of the asset, as the price now appears to be retesting the previously breached support zone, which has since transformed into resistance. In technical analysis, such a retest of a broken support level often serves as a key confirmation point for potential trend continuation. Should the current candle close decisively below this newly established resistance level, it could indicate a resumption of the bearish momentum, potentially paving the way for further downward movement.
It is important to consider that the reliability of this bearish outlook will depend on several factors, including the volume accompanying the price action and the broader market sentiment surrounding Near Protocol. Traders should also remain cautious of any signs of rejection or potential reversal patterns at this critical juncture, as these could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a shift in market dynamics.
In conclusion, while the current price action suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend.
We would be interested in hearing your perspective on this analysis and whether you concur with the potential bearish outlook for Near Protocol. As always, trade responsibly and prioritize risk management.
NQ heading down until AprilBased on time fib the top should remain Dec 17th. I think it will reverse down from the daily FVG and head down towards 195xx, which is another daily VIB and 3,5 std from last manipulation leg up. Time fib with Feigenbaum projection suggests the bottom will happen around April