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Candlestick Analysis

ES / MES Weekend Update Dec 8We continue OTFU on the weekly and daily. I want to be slightly cautious above here, not because it's bearish, but simply because we're above a 2 sigma deviation (SPX 6073) of the YTD vwap (SPX 5405). In the past, price has whipsawed at this deviation up to the 2.5. While I remain long, I also must have one foot out the door. Last week created a double distribution profile with Friday ending in the upper part. Thursday saw a pretty large seller come on around 6106 which then saw some resistance on Friday. Friday's initial move at the open from the NFP data left a poor high. This will most likely be revisited. Main concern for buyers here would be an excess move above Friday's high creating a look above and fail. I would watch 6114-6119 for exact scenario. For longs, I would be interested in a look below and fail of 6092-88. There is a LVN between Friday's low and the 12/5 Spike base. Take this up to 6100-06, trim and see where we go from there. A break above Friday's VAH, 6104 would target Friday's Poor High. Afterwards, we observe for the look above and fail possibility. Otherwise, trail the long. Above then targets 6124 and 6136, Friday 50% and 100% extensions respectively. If we trade and get traction below Friday's low, the NFP event candle low would be first target at 6075. Further weakness may finally see the gap fill at 6066 where I do expect buyers to pop in. Further weakness, would then target Nov RTH ATH 6060 and old balance top at 6045. In the end, buyers really are not in serious trouble until back below 6k. Weekly Expected Move: 61pts - 6038 / 6160 12/9 Daily Expected Move: 20pts - 6079 / 6119
CME_MINI:MES1!
by bluenotes
2
XAUUSD Short SignalAnalysis: Why XAUUSD is bearish 1. fair value gap incl. deep golden pocket (FVG): The price has reached a fair value gap (FVG) incl. the cosequent encroachment and the deep golden pocket in the 2,717.53 area, which acts as resistance. Such untested liquidity areas are often used by sellers to take short positions. As long as the price remains below this area, selling pressure is likely to persist. 2nd Fibonacci retracement level: The market is below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (2,664.31), indicating a dominant downtrend. In addition, the area between the Fibonacci levels 0.705 (2,716.04) and 0.79 (2,737.48) is in a resistance zone that has already triggered selling on several occasions. This confirms the weakness of the buyers and the control of the sellers over the market. 3. break of structure (BOS): A break of structure (BOS) is clearly evident. The market has formed both lower highs and lower lows, which is typical of a downtrend. This structural break signals that buyers are no longer able to maintain control and sellers are determining the market movement. 4. consolidation below the FVG: After the sell-off, the price consolidates in a narrow range below the fair value gap. This consolidation shows that the market is gathering energy to execute a further downward impulse. Without a return above the FVG area, the market remains strongly bearish. 5th target area (take profit zone): A potential price target is marked at 2,528.47, which is close to a strong support zone. This area could be defined by previous lows or liquidity zones and serves as a potential target point for sellers. 6. market momentum: The weak retracements to the upside and the structure of the chart indicate clear downward momentum. Buyers are currently showing no strength to initiate a sustained countermovement. Conclusion: XAUUSD is showing a clear bearish bias supported by the break of structure, fair value gap and Fibonacci resistances. As long as the price remains below the 50% retracement and the FVG, a further sell-off towards the support zone at 2,528.47 is to be expected. Traders should favor short setups and monitor potential reversal signals at the lower timeframes.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DavidOakFx
Monthly CLS, Model 1 is forming. Target 50% of rangeMonthly CLS, Model 1 is forming. Target 50% of range. you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. Monthly view What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Long
by Dave-Hunter
6
Testing Candlestick Patterns on Real DataIn his fundamental book "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts," Thomas Bulkowski tested dozens of candlestick patterns using S&P market data. His research revealed that many well-known patterns perform quite differently from what conventional wisdom suggests. In this video, I’ll show you how to conduct a similar analysis using your own data to determine whether those fancy "Hammers" and "Shooting Stars" actually give you an edge in trading.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
IRCON can move upwards after consolidation. IRCON International Ltd. engages in the provision of engineering and construction services. It specializes in major infrastructure projects, including railways, highways, bridges, flyovers, tunnels, aircraft maintenance hangars, runways, extra high voltage sub-stations, electrical and mechanical works, commercial and residential properties, development of industrial areas, and other infrastructure activities. The company operates through the Domestic and International geographic segments. IRCON International Ltd. 225.88. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Effectively using its capital to generate profit and High Volume, High Gain. The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 23.1), MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter, Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income. Entry can be taken after closing above 227 Targets in the stock will be 246, 265 and 285. The long-term target in the stock will be 316 and 352. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 180. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:IRCONLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Beml Land And Assets seems to be rising after forming a bottom.BEML Land Assets Ltd. operates as a special purpose entity which develops, acquires, manages, holds, licenses and sells real estate properties. BEML Land Assets Ltd. CMP is 243.49. The positive aspects of the company are Company with No Debt, Strong cash generating ability from core business - Improving Cash Flow from operation for last 2 years and Company with Zero Promoter Pledge. The Negative aspects of the company are Negative Valuation (P.E. = -246.6), MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter, Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter and Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects. Entry can be taken after closing above 245 Targets in the stock will be 274, 291 and 304. The long-term target in the stock will be 320, 343 and 356. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 215. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:BLALLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Long trade 30min TF Entry Buyside trade Thu 5th Dec 24 6.00 pm NY to Tokyo Session PM Entry 95900.23 Profit level 103214.31 (7.63%) Stop level 95714.89 (0.19%) RR 39.46 Reason: I initially anticipated that the Bitcoin would reach 100,000 on my previous buy-side trade attempt on December 4, 2024 (PM), but I was stopped out. However, observing Bitcoin’s strong momentum and breaking through the 100,000 barrier at this time gave me the conviction to enter another buy-side trade.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by davidjulien369
Reading a chart is not a very difficult art. Today we will try to understand how to read the charts how to make assumptions based on the same. First thing that one must understand that it is not a rocket science. One has to be creative, attentive and a sort of meditative. Albert Einstein once said that "it is not that I am smart but I stay with the questions much longer". For reading the chart one must ask questions to the chart and observe the answers by reading between the lines and understanding the patterns. Everything has patterns. Even time is not linear even as per Vedas the time is cyclical. That's why we have God (Generator, Operator and Destroyer). If time is cyclical the cycle is a pattern. We say that history repeats itself. Stock market legend Jesse Livermore once said "All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. Patterns repeat because human nature hasn’t changed for thousands of years” If you want to know more about Jesse Live more you can watch the movies like The American Clock, The day the bubble burst or The bucket Boy. Thus by asking the question to the chart and by observing the chart and searching fo the answers by noticing the patterns, historic layouts, supports, resistances and applying certain amount of basic maths and common sense one can come to know about the risk is to reward ratio in buying a stock or a derivative. 'Breakout' or Breakout level is what we are searching for. The coveted breakout may happen or it may not even after calculations and chart study and fundamental analysis. So if break out fails you must have a stop loss to protect your capital. If breakout actually happens you let your money work and reap the benefit. After having understood this basic concept let us try to analyse the chart of IDBI Bank for the purpose of education. I will mention below my observations of the same. The purpose of this analysis is educational and one must not treat it as a buy or sell call. The First thing that I observe here is that the stock is moving in a particular parallel channel. Many of the stocks do move in channels. There are different kind of channels and this one is a parallel channel. In a parallel channel channel top works as a resistance, Channel bottom works as a support and mid channel might work as a support if stock price is above it. The same mid channel will work as a resistance if the stock price is below it. Thus we get a Long term target 120 which can be the channel top. We get a long term support 75 which can be the channel bottom. The point to note is that 75 level has been supporting this stock since March 24. The stock has bounced from there many a times as indicated in the chart. In this particular case mid channel will work like a resistance. The real breakout might happen after we get a closing above it at the levels of 91.6. CMP of the stock is 85.12 but before we reach 91.6. There is a scope of trend line breakout if the stock closes above 87.6. Thus 91.6 is my first target. The closing above 91.6 can also be treated as a compounding point for stock's further journey. You can also think of takin partial entries at 87.6 and 91.6. If I am a Short term trader, I can even trade the stock for the target of 91.6. After closing above 91.6 further targets can be 96, 99, 101, 105, 107 and finally 120. Partial profit booking can also be done at these various levels. Trailing stop loss can also be increased step by step as the stock moves northwards. You can never be overconfident in your analysis. Stock market is a graveyard of lot of over confident people. The design of stock market is such that it transfers money from the impatient to the patient. Thus you need a stop loss in case your break out fails. In this particular case I can keep my stop loss at either at a closing below 83 as there are Mother and Father lines (50 and 200 days EMA) at this point. To know more about stuff like parallel channel, Mother Father and Small child theory and much more interesting ways to make your money work through Techno-Funda investing. You can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in (Paperback) and Kindle version (E-Version). The book has potential to become your handbook or an investment guide. If I am little bit more risk taking person I will keep the stop loss at closing below 75 in this case as 75 has historically provided a great support to the stock. Additionally now it has also become more powerful by becoming a channel bottom support (Importance of channel bottom support is discussed earlier in the article). A person who looks at the risk reward ratio can see that down side risk is Rs.2 or Rs.10 considering my risk taking ability and upside potential is around Rs 35. If you consider 120 as a channel top. So incase I keep my stop loss at 75 and my long term target at 120 my risk reward ratio can be 1:3.5. In case if I keep my target at 99 and my stop loss at 83 my risk reward ratio is 1:7 or so. So the risk reward ratio is a dynamic number which will keep changing depending on your target and risk taking ability. You need to calculate it personally. There can not be a universal risk reward ratio. As different people will keep different targets and different stop losses. Once you have determined your target and stop loss adhere to it strictly. In case of stop loss you have to be particularly strict. In case of target you can let the stock fly even higher than your target but you have to adhere to a trailing stop loss strictly. My book about which I have a description earlier talks at depth about stop loss and trailing stop loss. I sincerely hope that this write-up will help you in reading the charts, understanding the importance of charts and becoming a better investor. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:IDBILong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
SWING IDEA - CHAMBAL FERTILIZERSChambal Fertilizers , a leading manufacturer of fertilizers and agri-products in India, is presenting a compelling swing trade setup with strong technical indicators. Reasons are listed below : Break of Cup and Handle Pattern : A classic bullish continuation pattern indicating potential for a significant upside. Bullish Marubozu Candle : A strong bullish marubozu candle on the weekly timeframe highlights sustained buying pressure. 500 Zone Breakout : The price is attempting to break above the 500 resistance zone after consolidating near its all-time high, signaling strength. Prolonged Consolidation Breakout : The stock is breaking out of a consolidation phase spanning over 3 years, suggesting a fresh trend initiation. Target - 675 Stoploss - weekly close below 440 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:CHAMBLFERTLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
GBPUSD longs to close off the week.Having a look at W1, we can see that the previous week closed strong bullish engulf. This, to me, indicates and possible shift in momentum. The current weekly opened and pushed straight down and is currently making the top side of the candle. With NFP due today in like 5-6 hours, we could see a huge buy-up of price. Having a look at the current daily, confluence for buys can be seen as the candle formation is favourable. Waiting to see a break of 1.27750 to see price continue with an immediate push to the upside. 1 hour left till the H4 close, so will most likely wait for that. :)
Long
by LeruoM
1
Will NFP give Gold a boost?In my comment yesterday, I mentioned that the price was trading within a tight range, making it better to stay on the sidelines until there is more clarity. Although the price briefly broke below both the 2635 and 2620 support levels, it quickly reversed and moved back above them. This suggests that bulls remain strong above the 2600 level, indicating that a higher low might be forming. With this in mind, I anticipate the price to continue moving upward today and in the coming days, with a clear breakout above 2650. If that happens, Gold could gain momentum and potentially reach the next significant resistance level around 2680. For now, I’m looking to buy on dips, but I will reconsider this approach if Gold closes the week below yesterday’s low.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob