Candlestick Analysis
Nifty spirals down yet again in full flow. Where is the bottom?As Nifty Spirals down in a full flow investors have following questions in mind:
Q1 Where is the bottom?
Q2 How much more pain left in the system?
Q3 When will the recovery start?
Answer to all the questions is interlinked.
Answer 1) Predicting exact top and exact bottom is very difficult but with MMI at 23.71 it is clear that extreme fear has gripped investors. Those who invest during extreme fear zone make profit in a long run that is very clear cut long term scenario. FII have withdrawn enmasse in search of greener pastures. HNI investors and retail investors are worried that FII is going away. Also they feel the fear of increased taxation while budget 2025 is about to arrive supports for Nifty which can act as bottom are at 22740 (near lower bandwidth of bollinger band), 22465, 22175 and 21886 (Channel bottom support). Any of these levels as of now can act as support for Nifty.
Answer 2) As the levels suggest short covering can happen anytime alter this week as market looks oversold. Current RSI 28.66 is and RSI support is at 22. So we can expect a technical bounce upto 23K or 23.2K any time soon. Only if the Nifty closes 23550 we can see a momentum build up which can take Nifty further up towards 24K or 24.2K as of now.
Answer 3) Short term recovery can start very soon probably later this week. Long term recovery and march towards 25K or 25K+ will take some time and might start in end of Q1 or mid Q2 2025. As per the charts.
EURUSD: Back to Bullish Trend?!The EURUSD is starting to bounce back after a long period of downward trend.
There is a clear indication of a bullish breakout above an important daily/intraday resistance level, showing the dominance of buyers in the market.
Following the trend, I anticipate a potential bullish movement from the highlighted blue zone.
⚠️I suggest considering buying EURUSD only after it breaks below this zone.
Short idea
Sell-side trade
Tokyo to LND Session PM
Entry 681.07
Profit level 639.07 (6.!7%)
Stop level 690.79 (1.43%)
RR 4.32
Sun26th Jan 25 3.00 pm
Reason: The price level reached a pivotal supply level on the 1Hr TF, which seemed indicative of a Sellside trade as well as alignment with (discount) PD array for confluence
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Significant Structure BreakoutThe Dollar Index experienced a significant decline on Friday, with the market violating a key support level.
The previously intact range of 107.99 - 107.75 is now acting as a resistance zone.
I anticipate a downward trend towards the 107.23 level.
Key Resistance Level for AUDJPY: Towards 98.000?OANDA:AUDJPY is approaching a critical resistance level that has previously seen bearish reversals. The ongoing bullish momentum could provide an opportunity for sellers to step in and take control.
Key point: If we observe bearish signals such as rejection wicks at this resistance, the price could potentially drop towards 98.000. However, a breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup and shift the bias to a more bullish outlook.
It’s important to wait for clear rejection signals before considering any short positions. I'd love to hear your thoughts or different perspectives in the comments!
FOUR IDEAS ON EURUSD 1H CHARTGood morning ladies and gentlemen hope you had a wonderful weekend.
We start off the week with this setup on EU which I see four possible outcomes. I would prefer seeing a deeper pullback into the 50% first before we start seeing bullish action but if that does not happen I will flow with the market towards the high.
We have three key areas to look for confirmation from and that's the 1H FVG above the OBs, the 4H OB and the 1H OB.
Skilled traders can look to trade with the internal structure, counter the 1H swing, into the key areas.
Hope this helps you out, follow your plan and keep good risk management
Duo-Reversal Patterns Show USDCAD Rally "Hanging By A Thread"Price has rallied quite a bit for OANDA:USDCAD since its last visit of the Rising Support @ 1.34189 and we currently see Price showing quite a bit of exhaustion at the March 2020 Highs @ 1.44664!
This exhaustion comes in two Reversal Patterns:
Advance Block - 3 Candlestick Reversal Pattern
+ (Bearish Confirmation Candle)
Hanging Man - Single Doji Reversal Candlestick Pattern
Both these Reversal Candlestick Patterns and RSI in Oversold territory, spell possible trouble for Bulls in which signaling Bears could potentially overcome and Push Price Down!
This suspected drop in Price could be a Retracement to Previous Structure of Past Resistance @ (1.39775 - 1.38784 ) which happens to land right in the 50% - Golden Ratio Fibonacci Zone.
Fundamentally, USD and CAD both last week showed flying colors when it came to their Employment and Unemployment Results both showing an Increase in Work and Lowering in Jobless. This week will be news heavy for USD with:
Core PPI/PPI - Tuesday
Core CPI/CPI - Wednesday
Core Retail Sales/Retail Sales/ Unemployment Claims - Thursday
If overall week results are negative, we could see USD lose all strength and CAD take the stage!
Pepe’s Weak Price Action Signals Trouble AheadAs with many coins, Pepe saw a massive pump following Trump’s election, with the coin hitting a new all-time high (ATH).
However, the bullish momentum quickly faded. After a marginal new ATH at the beginning of December, the price dropped back to the old resistance level, which had turned into support.
In early 2025, bulls made two more attempts to push the price higher, but both efforts failed, sending the coin back to the support zone.
This kind of price action suggests growing weakness. I expect the current support zone to eventually break. If that happens, the coin could accelerate its decline, potentially targeting the 0.000007 area.
XAUUSD 16/01/25XAUUSD continues to hold the same bias as the past two weeks. As always, trade from the lows and aim for the highs. Orion provides us with a clear rule set to follow, allowing us to sit back and wait for our alerts to trigger.
This week, the main plan is to build more upside momentum while waiting for price to return to the lows. This would align with our long entry criteria. If the current target highs are reached, we’ll look for new lows to form and trade from.
Our approach remains simple: trade long to the highs, then wait for the next setup to appear. With Orion guiding the way, we simply follow the rules.
Trade within your risk limits and trust Orion.
EURUSD 26/01/2025EU this week giving us the bullish bias that we carried over from the Tuesday morning bias change. of course Orion told us as soon as the bias changed and we stayed on its tall the whole way to its current position. as it stands we are looking for longs into the target highs we have marked on our chart, but of course without a pullback we expect price to keep running and hit our targets . if we do carry the bullish move to our targets without hitting an entry low we will look for a new low to be created to then trade up into the highs once again. but our plan currently is the lows to be ran and the current targets remain in place giving us a strong target high to aim for.
Trade safe stick to your plan and always follow Orion!
NKN Analysis: Breakout Brewing – Buy Zone IdentifiedA technical breakdown of NKN’s descending wedge pattern, buy-in levels, and key targets for traders.
COINBASE:NKNUSDC CRYPTO:NKNUSD
🔥 Key Takeaways from the Analysis:
Descending Wedge Breakout Setup: The chart shows a descending wedge pattern, a bullish indicator that often leads to upward price movement.
Accumulation Phase Identified: Prolonged sideways movement and volume patterns suggest significant accumulation, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
Double (or Similar) Bottom Confirmation: Key support levels around $0.076 have been tested and confirmed, solidifying the bottom.
Anticipated Pullback Zone: Expect a retracement to $0.79–$0.82 before the breakout. This zone offers a strong buying opportunity.
Breakout Target: Initial breakout target is $0.1075 (~20% gain). Further moves could extend higher if momentum sustains.
Volume & Bollinger Bands Analysis: A breakout will likely come with high volume. Watch for pullbacks to the Bollinger Bands' midline for re-entry opportunities.
Long-Term Perspective: Weekly chart suggests a larger trend reversal, signaling potential for sustained bullish movement.
📝 Video Summary:
Chart Overview:
NKN/USD daily chart shows a descending wedge pattern, often associated with bullish reversals.
Clear signs of accumulation over a prolonged range with high volatility.
Support Levels & Patterns:
Key support confirmed at $0.076 with consistent wicks rejecting that level.
Pattern resembles a double or "similar bottom," reinforcing the breakout potential.
Buy Zone & Strategy:
Anticipate a pullback to $0.79–$0.82.
Monitor behavior around this zone, including volume and Bollinger Band interaction, for entry.
Volume Insights:
High-volume spikes are expected at the breakout, but excessive volume may cause short-term pullbacks.
Use Bollinger Bands to gauge retracement levels before re-entering.
Breakout Targets:
Initial resistance at $0.1075 for a conservative 20% gain.
Potential for further gains depending on market momentum.
Weekly Chart Perspective:
Signals suggest a larger trend reversal with opportunities for significant upside.
Bollinger Band analysis highlights the importance of sideways consolidation before a major move.
Pro Tips:
Sell during high-volume spikes to avoid overextensions.
Watch mid-channel levels (Bollinger Bands) for support during retracements.
💡 Extra Notes for the Audience:
Patience Pays Off: Wait for the pullback to $0.79–$0.82 for an optimal entry.
Risk Management: Monitor $0.795 support. Closing below it could indicate a failure of the setup.
Be Ready for Profit-Taking: The $0.1075 target is a key resistance zone where traders might offload positions.
Indecisive candle Nifty looking for a Breakout on either side. Like last week this week to Nifty has remained indecisive could not go up with the momentum and could not break the critical support on the down side. Such things happen generally when Nifty is in search of bottom or it has formed the bottom.
If Nifty has already formed the bottom and support at 22935 holds we can see an up side where the resistances will be at 23270, 23419 (Mother line on Weekly charts, very strong resistance), 23806 and 24203.
If Nifty dives down searching for a bottom we have supports at 22935, 21886 (Channel bottom support) and finally 21232 major support which is also pretty close to the lows of June 2024 Election result day lows which was at 21281. things hanging by the thread and shadow of the candle is Neutral to negative. Hoping for a short covering / Technical bounce anytime next week. Everything depends on the budget now. If the budget is good we can see a comeback rally in Nifty if not we will see it forming a bottom in mid or end February 2025.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Short trade
1Hr TF overview
Sellside trade
Sat 25th Jan 25
7.00 pm
NY to Tokyo Session PM
Entry 104746.6
Profit level 103083.0 (1.70%)
Stop level 105573.8 (0.79%)
RR 2.15
Reason: Sellside trade based on the narrative of supply and demand observed the 4Hr to 1Hr TF along with trendline liquidity for directional bias, target (0.618) Golden ration for a risk-reward of 2.1