Candlestick Analysis
CHFJPY: Move Down Ahead! 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
We see a strong bearish reaction to that after its retest.
I think that the pair will drop and reach at least 168.75 support soon.
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Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Mon 31st March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 0.62668
Profit level 0.61308 (2.17%)
Stop level 0.63038 (0.59%)
RR 3.68
Reason: WMA (100) and EMA (50)
Observed for sellside directional bias
along with the price failing to make a
higher high.
Target 0.382 (PD Array)
4Hr TF overview
Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Fri 28th March 25
9.00 am (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 194.679
Profit level 192.079 (1.34%)
Stop level 195.101 (0.22%)
RR 6.16
Reason: Trade Rationale:
PD Array for Bias & Price Range:
Using the Premium/Discount (PD) Array, suggesting entry from a premium zone for a short trade.
The bias aligns with sell-side liquidity targeting the double button (liquidity pool) on the day TF.
Short trade
1Hr TF overview
Pair EURUSD
Sellside trade
Tokyo to LND Session AM
Mon, 24th March 25
4.00 am (NY Time)
Entry 1.08514
Profit level 1.06839 (1.54%)
Stop level 1.08601(0.08%)
RR 19.25
Reason: Based on the supply-and-demand narrative, the 1Hr TF price had reached a pivotal supply level indicative of a sell-side trade idea.
Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Pair NZDUSD
Sun 30th March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 0.56969
Profit level 0.56389 (1.02%)
Stop level 0.57247 (0.49%)
RR 3.68
Reason: Price action seems indicative
of a Sellside momentum since Sunday
30th March 25.
Target Wed 5th March - liquidity low
Short gold, profit target: 500pipsAfter reaching a fresh high of 3150, gold pulled back and has since been consolidating in a narrow range around 3132. While there is no denying that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, I believe it is now at its peak and could top out at any moment. This is why I continue to look for shorting opportunities rather than blindly chasing long positions—because I must first evaluate whether I have the risk tolerance to withstand a potential long-side drawdown.
Currently, gold is showing signs of exhaustion, retreating from 3150 and stalling near its ascending trend channel resistance. There is a strong possibility that this marks the end of the parabolic uptrend, leading to a rounded top correction, similar to the previous price cycle. A potential retracement zone aligns with a $50 pullback.
From a risk management perspective, going long at elevated levels presents significant challenges in setting a stop-loss (SL). A tight SL increases the probability of being stopped out due to market volatility, while a wider SL or no SL at all could expose long positions to severe drawdowns or liquidation if the market collapses.
On the contrary, short positions allow for better-defined SL placement, and gold tends to correct sharply after an extended rally, offering favorable exit opportunities. The worst-case scenario for short sellers is missing out on further upside gains, but in return, we significantly reduce the risk of capital destruction. This is the primary reason why I remain firmly bearish on gold at current levels!
Gold has retreated from its 3150 high, showing signs of momentum exhaustion. Given this price action, traders can consider initiating short positions within the 3135-3145 zone, aiming for a pullback toward the 3100 level. This setup offers a potential $50 profit per trade.
NZDCAD ShortsMarket structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at both DW
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.82000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 4.3
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
GBPJPY Sell idea/analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a downtrend forming by having a Lower high and a low that has been broken, and I can see a rejection off of the low that can be a confirmation for a downtrend to shape. The uptrend trendline is broken, and the downtrend trendline has been respected so far, so these are enough confirmations for me to take this trade.
US30 Scalping Ideas for NYSE open todaySince the NYSE brings a lot of volume, we can look for both buy and sell ideas depending on how the candles behave. I will wait for the first 5-minute candle after the NYSE open to plan my trade.
Higher timeframes (weekly, 4H, and the hourly) all look bearish except for the bullish close yesterday, so my bias is still bearish. Unless we see some tariff related good news or any other fundamental news release, the continuation most likely can be towards the downside.
Happy trading!
Gold Investors Beware: Bears Are Quietly AssemblingGold’s candlestick chart has displayed multiple upper shadows above the 3025-3030 zone, widely regarded as a clear rejection signal. With repeated failures to break through this resistance, gold is showing signs of forming a potential short-term top. This not only caps the upside but could also act as a key indicator of a possible bearish reversal.
Following the Asian session's opening, gold experienced a slight gap up but failed to sustain its momentum, maintaining a range-bound movement instead. The lack of strong bullish follow-through reflects weak buying interest.
Additionally, recent statements from Trump suggest a softened stance on tariff policies, with his rhetoric appearing less aggressive. If the tariffs are implemented in a more moderate manner or market reactions are less severe than anticipated, risk-off sentiment could subside, leading to a significant pullback in gold prices.
But given the presence of strong buying interest and bullish sentiment consolidation, expectations for an extensive decline remain limited. The primary support to monitor lies in the 3110-3100 range. If gold break below this zone, it may trigger an accelerated drop, with the next downside target at the 3095-3085 region.
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Long trade
Day Tf overview
Pair GBPUSD
Buyside trade
Mon 31st March 25
9.00 am (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 1.29046
Profit level 1.29691 (0.50%)
Stop level 1.28968 (0.06%)
RR 8.27
Reason:
The buyside trade idea is
based on the supply and
demand narrative...
Observed Sun 29th March 25.
Entry reached Mon 31st 9.00 am (NY time)
4Hr TF overview
W14 Daily Edge – Play Likelihood ThesisMomentum structure. Strong weekly open. Large Initial Balance. Breakout bias remains dominant unless we hit exhaustion.
🔭 Likely Play Occurrences
✅ Clean breakout long – Very High
🟡 Rejection-and-hold near VAH – Moderate (watch for retest)
🟠 Failed breakout then rotation long – Low–Moderate
🔒 Shorts – Only valid after AWR High (3170) is hit
🎯 Key Reference Levels (W13 Context + W14 Targets)
W14 AWR High: 3170
50% AWR Target: 3134
W13 High: 3086
W13 VAH: 3046
W13 POC: 3016
W13 VAL: 3004
W13 Low: 3002
Holding structure above 3046 keeps breakout thesis alive. Watching for reaction near 3134 and exhaustion into 3170. Shorts only considered above AWR.
Good news for bears, gold will fall back to 3095-3085Driven by Trump’s tariff policies and geopolitical risks, gold has sustained a strong upward trajectory. However, after reaching around 3128, its momentum has visibly slowed, with multiple signs of pullbacks emerging within the short-term structure.
From the candlestick chart, it’s evident that gold has faced repeated rejection signals above 3125, characterized by long upper shadows. The 3125 level has now formed a notable resistance zone and appears to be acting as a short-term consolidation high. This price action increases the likelihood of a potential top formation.
Moreover, gold’s recent strength is largely attributed to growing concerns of a global trade war sparked by Trump’s tariff policies, prompting investors to rotate out of risk assets like equities and into safe-haven assets such as gold. However, if Trump softens his stance on the tariffs or adopts a more diplomatic approach to maintain confidence in the U.S. dollar, risk appetite may recover. This would likely drive funds back into equities and other risk assets, leading to an outflow from gold.
For gold trading, I prefer to avoid aggressively chasing long positions at this stage, as downside risks persist. If gold fails to decisively break through the 3125-3135 resistance zone, the bullish momentum may weaken, increasing the likelihood of a downward move. If gold break below the 3100 level during a pullback, it could accelerate further declines, with potential targets in the 3095-3085 range.
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