NZDJPY: Strong Bullish Signal 🇳🇿🇯🇵
I spotted a nice example of the application of SMC trading
with multiple time frame analysis on NZDJPY pair.
After a test of a significant daily demand zone,
first, we see a liquidity grab where the price went beyond
the underlined zone.
A consequent bullish imbalance and CHoCH confirm
a real strength of the buyers and indicate a highly probable
bullish continuation.
Next goal - 86.43
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Candlestick Analysis
EURAUD: Bearish Movement Confirmed?! 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
Sellers demonstrate a clear strength after a test
of the underlined blue resistance cluster.
A formation of a bearish imbalance candle and a confirmed
intraday CHoCH leave strong reversal clues.
I think that EURAUD will likely retrace today, at least to 1.738 level.
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XAUUSD remains bearish unless it breaks 3265🗞News side:
1. India considers using new Indus River project to cut water supply to Pakistan.
2. Pay attention to the news of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations today
📈Technical aspects:
Today's opening correction is due to technical repair and adjustment, which is why I shorted. The support of 3200-3210 is of great significance to the short-term trend. If it can be supported here again, it may further promote the upward expansion space. However, after the rebound in the morning Asian session, it did not break through the 3265 line. On the contrary, the bulls began to weaken. Today is Friday, and the market is not expected to show a unilateral strong attitude. It will be treated as a shock during the day. Before breaking through 3265 above, we can short at a small level during the intraday rebound. Short-term operation suggestions, temporarily look at 3235-3240 on the upper side, and look at the support of 3210-3200 on the lower side.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Can a V-shaped reversal continue the bull market?🗞News side:
1. Hamas official: If a permanent ceasefire is achieved, control of the Gaza Strip can be handed over
2. Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rates are no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to fall to 2.2% in April.
3. Russia and Ukraine reached a ceasefire at the technical level
📈Technical aspects:
Yesterday, the gold price staged a V-shaped reversal and once rose to close near 3244. Although the technical indicators in the hourly chart show a favorable situation, there has been no correction in the current round of gold price increase, and the rise is slow. In addition, the RSI has entered the overbought area, so we need to be alert to the possibility of gold price correction today. Focus on the 3250-3260 resistance on the top and the 3210-3200 support on the bottom.
SELL 3245-3250 TP 3210-3200
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Is there still a chance for short sellers to make a profit?At present, gold continues to rebound to around 3230, and the intraday rebound has reached $100. Today, both short trades have touched SL, giving back most of the profits of the long positions in the morning. So are there still opportunities for shorts to make profits?
I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for shorts. Although gold has rebounded strongly to around 3230, it will soon face the short-term resistance area of 3240-3245, which happens to be the 38.2% split area when it retreats from 3435 to 3120, so this area has a certain suppression effect on gold in the short term! Then there is the suppression effect of the area around 3260; so I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for gold shorts. As gold rebounds, the short-term support below is raised to 3200-3190, followed by 3175-3165.
Trading strategy:
Consider trying to short gold in the 3235-3245 area, TP: 3200-3190
Short trade
15min TF overview
🟥 Sellside Trade Log
📉 Pair: NZD/USD
🏷️ Type: Intraday | LND Session AM
🧠 Setup: Continuation (Ascending Channel Rejection)
🆔 Trade ID: #NZDUSD-0515A
📅 Date: Thursday, 15th May 2025
🕘 Time: 9:15 AM
🔹 Entry Price: 0.58856
🔹 Profit Target: 0.58537 (-0.54%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 0.58955 (+0.17%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.22
🔍 Reasoning:
This sellside continuation trade was executed following a rejection at the ascending channel resistance. Price action showed bearish follow-through during the London AM session, with the channel's upper boundary providing a key pivot. Momentum favoured downside extension, supported by structure and session timing.
BTC/USDT Scalping Opportunity – Fib & Trendline Confluence!As analyzed, BTC is sitting perfectly at the Fibonacci level combined with trendline support – a strong confluence zone for a long scalp.
📌 Entry 1: 101.8k
📌 Entry 2: 101.6k
🛡️ Stop Loss: 1hr candle close below 101.4k
🎯 Target: 300 – 1000 points
This zone has been tested and respected multiple times. We either bounce strong from here or hunt the liquidity at 100.7k before reversal. Both plans are marked in green – stay sharp!
#Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Scalping #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #Trendline #FibStrategy
Long trade
1Hr TF overview
30 TF entry
🟩 Buyside Trade Log
📈 Pair: USD/CAD
🏷️ Type: Intraday | Tokyo Session PM
🧠 Setup: Breakout
🆔 Trade ID: #USDCAD-0512A
📅 Date: Monday, 12th May 2025
🕔 Time: 5:00 PM
🔹 Entry Price: 1.39273
🔹 Profit Target: 1.41764 (+1.79%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.38991 (-0.20%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.83
🔍 Reasoning: Price action context
Buyside trade initiated based on Wyckoff methodology, identifying accumulation phases during the Tokyo PM session. Breakout entry was timed as price moved out of the accumulation zone, aligning with Phase D, where price begins to mark up toward higher liquidity zones.
Short trade
1Hr TF overview
🟥 Sellside Trade Log
📉 Pair: ETH/USD
🏷️ Type: Intraday | Tokyo Session PM
🧠 Setup: Breakout (Shelf Method)
🆔 Trade ID: #ETHUSD-0514A
📅 Date: Wednesday, 14th May 2025
🕘 Time: 9:00 PM
🔹 Entry Price: 2,585.17
🔹 Profit Target: 2,456.05 (-4.99%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 2,600.06 (+0.58%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.67
🔍 Reasoning:
A sellside breakout trade was initiated after the price broke decisively below a key horizontal shelf support level, confirming bearish continuation. The shelf method was used to identify price consolidation just above support, followed by a sharp breakdown, signalling a shift in directional bias. Order flow and structure supported a downside expansion, with the entry positioned to exploit clean inefficiency beneath the base.
NZdUSd SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTF 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.59500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Gold V-shaped reversal? How to solve the short order quilt🗞News side:
1.PPI has fallen for three consecutive months
2. Russia-Ukraine talks are ongoing
3. Powell says the era of long-term low interest rates is over
📈Technical aspects:
Gold rebounded from oversold in the European session, hitting a low of 3120 before pulling back and rising. After a second retracement to confirm 3130, it made a V-shaped reversal. Currently, gold is still testing the 3190-3200 resistance line. Before breaking the resistance range, gold may still usher in a second bottom detection
🎁SELL 3190-3200, SL 3210, TP 3170-3160
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Nifty Analysis EOD - May 15, 2025 - Thursday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - May 15, 2025 - Thursday 🔴
Heart-Throbbing Wild Weekly Expiry by Nifty
📈 Nifty Summary
What a day! In yesterday’s report, we highlighted the potential for breakout on both sides—and Nifty said, “Why choose one? Have both!”
Opening with a modest gap-up of 28 points at 24,694, the index wasted no time and took a sharp dive, breaching the Previous Day Low (PDL) and hitting 24,494. This test of the 24,483–24,528 support zone sparked an immediate V-shaped recovery.
By 10:30 AM, Nifty had reclaimed its mean level, and breaching 24,600 triggered short-covering that pushed it sharply toward PDH, which was taken out in just 10 minutes. A rumored update from Trump on a USA–India tariff deal (unverified but possible catalyst) might have played a role—though, as always, price is the final news.
However, within the next 30 minutes, Nifty wiped out all the gains, only to enter a consolidation phase until 1 PM. Then came the real action—another breakout above PDH with strong short-covering and fresh buying. The rally took Nifty to a fresh weekly high of 25,116, closing near the highs at 25,035.
This wasn’t a regular expiry. This was a thriller.
📊 Intraday Walk
📉 Breach of PDL to form 24,494 low
🧲 V-shaped recovery from 24,500 zone
🚀 24,600 breakout triggers short-covering to PDH
⚡ Spike to PDH wiped out → range-bound for 2 hours
🟢 1 PM breakout → new weekly high 25,116
🔚 Closed at 25,035, a solid 341-point day
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Candle Type: Bullish Marubozu-like Engulfing
Range: ~622 points
Key Observation: Engulfed previous two candles and broke 12th May’s high & close
What it Implies: Strong bullish momentum, signs of sustained short-covering
🎯 Gladiator Strategy Update
Strategy Parameters
ATR: 376.94
IB Range: 212.3 → 📏 Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Balanced
Trade Highlights
✅ 1st Long Trigger: 13:05
🎯 Target Achieved: 1:4 Risk-Reward
💼 Total Trades: 1
📍 Support & Resistance Levels
🟩 Resistance Zones:
25,116 ~ 25,128
25,180 ~ 25,212
25,285
25,399
25,485 ~ 25,511
🟥 Support Zones:
25,000 ~ 24,980
24,882
24,800 ~ 24,768
24,730
24,660
24,590
24,530 ~ 24,480
🧠 Final Thoughts
The Nested Inside Bar setup we spoke of yesterday? It delivered. Clean breakdown of PDL without triggering trade saved us from a trap, while the PDH breakout delivered a 1:4 reward—textbook price action setup. With a strong bullish engulfing on the daily, expect continued strength with dips being bought.
“When the market offers clarity, act. When it offers confusion, observe.” — Stay nimble.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
GBPCHF LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.10000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 3.75
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
NZDCHF SHORT Price did not do much the previous week, There was no break of any structure so now reposting the trade idea;
Market Structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.50000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.98
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDJPY – Potentially More Volatility AheadUSDJPY experienced a significant move higher at the end of April/beginning of May, as first, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) started to indicate caution towards further interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the introduction of President Trump’s trade tariffs, a potential negative for the JPY. This was followed by dollar demand linked to Monday’s announcement by US and China trade representatives of a significant de-escalation of tariffs on imports from each country for a 90 day period.
This upside squeeze saw USDJPY trade from a low of 139.89 on April 22nd to a high of 148.65 on Monday May 12th, as FX traders were forced to pare back weak short positions as short term upside resistance levels were broken.
Since then, however, the rally has come to an abrupt halt with USDJPY falling to a low of 145.60 on Wednesday, with a potential catalyst for this drop being a news report outlining currency policy discussions between US and South Korean governments at the start of May which may have led to increased speculation that President Trump’s administration may be open to a weaker dollar.
Looking forward, this pick up in USDJPY volatility may not be finished as traders now have to digest 2 scheduled events today and one overnight that may impact where this popular currency finishes the week.
The first 2 events, includes the earnings and forward guidance from the US retail colossus Walmart (due today before the open) and US Retail Sales data (1330 BST today), which will provide FX traders with an important update on the current appetite of US consumers to spend through the recent trade war upheaval.
Then, overnight the Japanese Preliminary Q1 GDP growth update is due at 0050 BST (Friday). This release could either support the current BoJ caution over further rate hikes, or lead to a potential resurgence of market rate hike expectations, if it comes in stronger than anticipated, with knock on implications for USDJPY volatility into the weekend.
Technical Update: Being Prepared For Further Volatility
It has certainly been an impressive rally in USDJPY, with traders perhaps focusing on the recent close above 145.92 as a potential positive. This level was equal to the May 2nd session high, which might be viewed by some, as opening further attempts to extend recent price strength.
However, within financial markets, psychological round numbers in price can influence trader sentiment, meaning as impressive as latest upside may appear, it might still have to close above 150.00, equal to the round price number evident just above recent activity.
What if the 150.00 resistance holds and fresh weakness emerges?
This week’s activity has so far, seen a price high established at 148.65, posted on Monday, which coupled with the 150.00 psychological resistance, may be an area traders could be focusing on as next possible resistance. They may feel, this 148.65/150.00 range could continue to hold price strength, even attract selling pressure.
A pattern for USDJPY activity in 2025, has been attempts at price strength failing under the previous recovery price highs, as indicated by the pattern of lower highs since the January 10th upside extreme, highlighted on the chart below.
It is far too early to say if this is the case again, but the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April to May price strength, which stands at 145.31, might prove an important support.
If this 145.31 level were to give way on a closing basis, it could point to a possible phase of more extended declines, and potential weakness towards 144.28, the deeper 50% level, even 143.24, the 61.8% retracement.
What if 145.31 Support Holds?
If the 145.31 support holds current price weakness, it could be argued, the 148.65/150.00 range is a resistance area we should perhaps watch on a closing basis, if it is challenged over coming sessions.
While not a guarantee of a more sustained phase of price strength, if closes above 148.65/150.00 were to materialise, traders might then look for potential to test higher resistance levels.
Focus could for instance then turn towards tests of the next price failure high, which is represented by 151.21, posted on March 28th 2025, possibly further if this in turn gives way.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Exact Sciences: Downtrend May Be BrokenExact Sciences jumped on strong earnings two weeks ago, and some traders may think the oncology stock has further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bullish price gap on May 2 after results beat estimates. Prices apparently broke a falling trendline in the process.
EXAS then consolidated before ending yesterday at a three-month high. Is it getting ready to escape the recent range?
Third, Wednesday featured a bullish outside candle.
Fourth, prices tested and held their rising 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 8-day EMA is additionally above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals are potentially consistent with short-term bullishness.
Finally, there may be space to the upside because the 52-week high is 33 percent above the last price.
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Continue to short gold after the reboundFundamentals:
1. Focus on Powell's speech at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference;
2. Pay attention to the situation of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations;
Technical aspects:
Gold has successively broken through the important support area of 3200 and 3160, and continued to around 3120; the short-term bearish trend is very obvious; although gold has rebounded to around 3170 again in the short term, I think the reason is one of the technical rebound repair after the decline; the second is the result of profit-taking of some short positions. So I fully believe that gold has the need to fall again after the rebound;
At present, we need to focus on the resistance of the 3175-3180 area, followed by the resistance of the 3195-3200 area; if gold cannot break through this resistance area during the rebound, gold is expected to fall again and continue to the area around 3100.
Trading strategy:
Consider the opportunity to short gold after gold rebounds to the 3275-3285 area; TP: 3150
TVC:DXY FOREXCOM:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD
The technical side collapses! Can the bear market continue?🗞News side:
1. Russia and Ukraine hold ceasefire talks
2. Initial jobless claims data released during today's US trading session
3. Trump administration exposed to trillions of national debt
📈Technical aspects:
After gold fell below 3200, it pointed directly at the 3100-3000 line. Although there has been a rebound in the process, the current short-term short-term situation has not changed. The current lack of rebound momentum in the market is mainly due to the fact that the bad news has not been completely digested. At present, the gold price has rebounded to around 3160. Above, we need to pay attention to the first-line suppression of 3168, which is the first low point in the decline, followed by the 3190-3200 resistance zone above. If the gold rebound cannot break through the 3168 point, then the gold price will most likely continue its decline, test the 3120 low again, or even move towards 3000. If the European market hits the 3168 line and encounters resistance, it can be short-term and focus on the release of initial jobless claims data in the US market.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
GBPUSD: Bearish Move Confirmed?! 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD looks bearish after a release of UK GDP this morning.
I see a strong bearish imbalance after a test of a key horizontal resistance
and a confirmed Change of Character CHoCH as a confirmation.
I expect a bearish continuation at least to 1.3224
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