Gold (XAUUSD) - Worldwide Austerity = $3,000 per/ozHappy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on XAUUSD as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
It's sad to say but the more pain that is felt around the world, the more the rich accumulate assets. Gold is regarded as a save haven in times of turbulence and as we can see here, for the past 6 consecutive 6-month period, we have managed to close significantly higher and it does not look like the gravy train is about to end.
Psychological numbers work well in uncharted territories and with $2,790 being ATH, $3,000 seems reasonable right?
Well, the horrible truth is the more suffering that takes place in the world means the rich get richer which ultimately means a higher price for gold in the long term.
Candlestick Analysis
EUR/USD - Parity Might Come Sooner Than You RealiseHappy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on EUR/USD as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Fundamentals will play a strong role in determining whether we see 1 to 1 with the dollar but for the time being, short term market movements to the upside can be beneficial as it goes against the longer term bearish narrative
GBP/USD - What Will It Take...?Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on GBPUSD as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
3 consecutive 6-month candles has closed bearish, whilst respecting the SIBI and attacking short term highs.
Short term plays to the upside utilising the 1-min timeframe is possible but in the grand scheme of the bias, which is bearish, I look to target 1.12287.
This could take several months to years but there is no solid positive fundamentals to give me the confidence that the UK economy will improve any time soon.
USDJPY is getting ready for next big movement!Hey guys,
Based on the chart, a major resistance area is broken and currently we are in a range market that I consider it as a simple correction for the next movement of price.
I've defined 3 levels of take profit and with consideration of risk/reward 1/3.7, it be a good trading opportunity.
Good luck!
Failing VWAP RetestWe broke through our VWAP (pegged to 1/13/25) at the 102500 level today, retested once, we passed 101900, 101500, now retesting 101500 which is where the VWAP is for some BTC perpetuals. For them it is support as currently their price sits above this band, but as you can see here on the spot chart it is resistance for spot BTC. The high volume/compression candles colored purple and yellow-green show there is more leniency toward the downside. There is a demand zone the price could possibly rebound starting around 100500.
Good closing by Nifty signaling chances of revival. We got a closing by Nifty today above 23200 levels at 23205 which has confirmed the chances of Revival. Two minor and 2 major hurdles remain in front of it right now before we can confirm that bear run is over. The minor resistance in front of Nifty now are 23270 and 23424.
These are not strong resistances however any resistance can not be taken lightly when FII sell is selling like there is no tomorrow. after we get a closing above 23424 there will be father and Mother line resistances at 23652 and 23825. These 2 will be major resistances. Post we get a closing above 23825, 24000 and 24203 will me major hurdles. Only a closing above 24203 will bring bulls out of ICU. So we have a long way to go before complete revival. Today we have gained an important additional support near 23090.
Supports on the lower side for Nifty will be at 22935 (This is a strong trend line support.) Below 22935 the supports is at 22425. Tomorrow will be an important day. If we get a positive closing tomorrow the momentum can be carried forward into the next week.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Short-Term Red Flags for Gold: Key Levels to WatchAs you know, I’ve been bullish on Gold for the past two weeks, anticipating a rise to around 2760 and potentially a new all-time high (ATH).
However, while my overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, there are some short-term red flags to consider.
Looking at the posted chart, we can see that yesterday, Gold broke above the channel’s resistance. Typically, such a breakout would lead to upward acceleration, at least in theory. Instead, the price touched the 2763 resistance level and then began rolling back down.
If Gold breaks back below the previously broken resistance, we could see a retest of the lower boundary of the channel, which sits around 2720 (a confluence support zone roughly 300 pips below current levels).
In conclusion, unless bulls can successfully push above 2760, the likelihood of a correction increases. While it’s a risky play, aggressive traders might consider shorting the market under these conditions.
Nasdaq market analysis: 23-Jan-2025Good morning. Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis and educational insights for price action traders.
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Conflicting signals for the S&P 500 just off its record highThe S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Dow Jones (March 2025) - Trump Has Dow Jones In A Headlock!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the Dow Jones continuous contract and YMH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
With S&P 500 & Nasdaq frontrunning Dow Jones, a close eye must be kept on YM as it might eb the first symbol out of the three stock indexes that decides to capitulate. If that occurs, there's a high chance the others will follow suite.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - AI Advancement Enables Higher PricesHappy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the Nasdaq continuous contract and NQH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
With Trump supporting the technology sector, investing $500bn into AI development recently, it goes hand in hand with booking all-time high prices.
The question is, will the run continue?
If it doesn't, what could be the reason why??
War?
Famine??
Cybersecurity Threats???
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Clock Is Ticking For $7,000 ES!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the S&P 500 continuous contract and ESH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Tech stocks have been rallying since trump came into office and it doesn't seem to have a end in sight.
They say the trend is your friend until it isn't.
Aiming for previous all-time highs until proven otherwise.
Dollar Index - Donald Trump Made America Great Again!.... Whilst destroying economies world wide!
Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the dollar index as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
All eyes are on interest rates as lower rates will reduce the chance for dollar to chase higher yields.
US T-Bonds - Bond Prices Falling Off A Cliff! Happy New Year Traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on T-Bond Futures as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias, especially when comparing the strong inverse correlation to Gov 10y yields.
Countries like the UK are suffering as their prices for their bonds are being sold at extreme losses in order to prop up their restrictive policies.
When will it end..?
US 10Y Yields - Is 5% Yields A Real Possibility? Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on Government Bond Yields as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Here, we look into the technical and psychological elements as to why 5% might not be as soon as you think...
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).