GBPJPY 4 HR - Using Liquidity to Analyze & Plan for the week.Hey guys,
This is my update for GJ for the next week or so.
There are so many things that can happen from here, because as we know, the market is never straightforward. These are just a few of my projections and i will slowly eliminate options and adjust my analysis as the week goes by and we start to see changes in both market conditions and price action.
I would need to see confirmations at my points of interests (not shown) for me to actually take a trade. But basically, we are still stuck in a consolidation, and we need to wait for price to remove liquidity at either the highs or lows so we can start seeing what price wants to do.
Right now, we are sitting in a bullish Fib to go higher, but I am not sure if it is a reversal fib or a retracement fib to go lower. I will definitely need more confirmation.
Basically - the way I see the market is that Liquidity, runs everything. Thats why there are so many manipulations and patterns etc. Price will remove buyers or sellers THEN continue in its desired direction. It needs to shake off all the people riding it before continuing and this is why I always say, 'If a setup looks too good to be true, it usually is.'
For example - Think of a marathon - If i was a marathon runner why would I run a marathon with a weighted backpack on and ankle weights? I would TRY to run; realize they were weighing me down, then I would throw them off and then continue running.
Thats basically how the market is with all the retail traders trying to ride it in all directions.
If it wants to start trending bullish for example - It may consolidate for a bit, accumulating buyers and sellers, retrace bullish or even just wick to remove liquidity and all sellers to shake them off before continuing bearish, because the buyers will be removed eventually as price starts trending down.
Thats how I see the market anyways and when I learnt to see the market like this and base all my projections/analysis around liquidity, I was able to become more aware of price manipulations and fake outs so i was able to avoid them.
Thinking like the banks and 'market makers' is the best way to become consistently profitable, because you will understand how and why price action moves and behaves in order to make money and you find yourself no longer getting stuck in liquidity traps and raids with the other retail traders.
You need to see where all the liquidity is on the chart and THEN do your analysis and projections.
Ask yourself -
- In order to make as much money as possible, what does the bank need to do?
- Which way is the most cost-effective way for the bank to move price? Because after all - The market is run like a business.
- When you have all of this THEN you can start to do your technical analysis.
- Does this look too good to be true?
- What are other retail traders looking at doing here?
- What does the market WANT them to do ?
When I began to ask myself these questions i really started seeing a huge difference in my trading and my consistency and i wish someone had told me this sooner in my journey!
:)
Candlestickpattern
EURUSD before NFPAnother day of major news causing huge fluctuations.
After the ECB’s announcement yesterday, we saw a correction to 1,0900 which is exactly 61,8 of the previous impulse!
The direction remains unchanged and we will look for new buying opportunities upon confirmation.
The idea breaks down on a drop below 1,0800.
Upon a rise, the target is a break of 1,1030.
Weekly Engulfing Candle on Crude Oil [ Bearish ] Weekly Engulfing candle on Crude oil is a display of control at our Critical Zone 81-81.40. We have Daily Candles closing Bearish. Some closed bullish but with large top wick rejections of our zone. Which was heavily anticpated this past week with great sell opportunities throughout the week, and lastly to end the week. A $3+ Move to end the week rejecting our zone. patience and the market will offer a chance to jump on the train. Or we may be wrong but we are seeing more evidence for bears. These are the prices and zones I like to trade off. From HTF's all the way down to execution on the Smaller TF's . Always maintaining a 3:1 RR . Safe and defensive but aggressive at times when your planned analyiss plays out. Cheers. Safe Trading
TSLA: This is Important.• TSLA broke our key resistance at $182.50, which we mentioned yesterday, and this is very important, as indicates that the trend might persist (the link to my previous analysis is below this post, as usual);
• Now, TSLA is in a clear bull trend, and there’s no top sign indicating a possible correction;
• In fact, this Monday TSLA did a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. That could be a top sign, but TSLA rejected completely this pattern yesterday;
• Now that TSLA is breaking our key point at $182.50, it is heading to our next target at $200;
• Even if TSLA corrects, any pullback would be an opportunity to buy, because the bias is clearly bullish in the short/mid-term;
• I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Emerged of Buying Interest!The candlestick indicates a significant price movement where the price closed above the MA line backed by high volumes due to fresh buying interest on the stock.
The MACD indicates a divergence signal, hence, confirming the price movement to the next price resistance.
The RSI is in positive momentum due to emerged of buying interest on the stock.
Let's save XINHWA in the WL and watch out for significant price movement backed with volume toward the next price resistance.
R 0.275, 0.300
S 0.240
TSLA: Fantastic Reaction. 👍• TSLA is doing an important reaction, as it is trying to reject the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, our top sign from Monday;
• This top sign wasn’t completely rejected yet, but even if TSLA resumes the drop, there are many support levels to hold the price;
• The first support is the $154, then the gap area around $146. What’s more, there is the 21 ema, which is ascending right now;
• A pullback to any of these support levels could be an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price;
• The key resistance is the $182.50. If TSLA breaks the $182.50, then our next resistance level is the $200;
• I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SPX: This Could Change Everything. 👀• The SPX successfully rejected the Below the Stomach candlestick pattern from yesterday, and it failed in breaking the support at 4,015;
• This is a sign of strength, and makes a correction to the 21 ema less likely;
• The trend is still bullish, as it is still doing higher highs/lows, above the 21 ema (D), and there’s no clear reversal sign on it yet;
• Although the SPX rejected the Below the Stomach from yesterday, it has yet to break the resistance at 4,100;
• The 4,100 is a bullish pivot point, as seen in the weekly chart, and would be the first one since the bear market started in January 2022 - this could change everything and put an end on this bear market. The index already did an upwards breakout from the Descending Channel seen in the W chart;
• For now, the key points are 4,100 and 4,015. I’ll keep you updated on this.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
EURUSD before FEDToday we await the announcement of interest rates by the FED.
This is the most important news right now and is sure to cause movement.
Bear in mind that there will be press conferences 30 minutes after the announcement.
Yesterday we discussed the buying zone which is already reached and we have a rise.
It’s important to see confirmation of this movement after the news. Only then we can enter into new trades.
If we see new rise, the first target will be 1,1000. In case of a clear movement we will be looking for further targets.
SPX: Bearish Pattern Below a Resistance! 🤔• The SPX did a top sign, as it lost our 21 ema (1h) yesterday, and it did a quite powerful bearish candlestick pattern in the daily chart: A Below the Stomach pattern;
• This reinforces our thesis that the index wants to correct, and the 21 ema in the daily chart becomes a technical target in this scenario;
• The problem is that yesterday the index failed in breaking the 4,015 (red line), and if it does a clear reaction around this area then our thesis might get frustrated;
• It seems the index is trying to react this morning, but it has yet to reject this Below the Stomach pattern seen in the daily chart;
• I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
TSLA: A Dangerous Situation.• Yesterday, TSLA did a classic bearish candlestick pattern: a Dark Cloud Cover;
• This is a top sign, and this could bring more correction ahead. The next technical support is at $154, while there’s an open gap at $146.41;
• TSLA failed to hit the technical resistance at $182.50, and this is a sign of weakness, and reinforces the idea of a correction, at least in the short/mid-term;
• For now, there’s no technical reaction that could frustrate the DCC pattern, but I’ll keep you updated every day on this.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
EURUSD buy zoneBuying zone on EURUSD
Yesterday we determined the buying zone on EURUSD and it remains unchanged.
We will watch if the price reaches the zone and pullback from it.
The announcement of Interest rate for USD is on Wednesday.
It is possible that before this there will be no great movements and one should not enter into trades without grounds!
It is important that all positions must have a stop and lower risk before the news!
GBPJPY - 4 HR Projection and Analysis Just a couple of options i have drawn out for GJ. There are obviously many more ways price can move here. But these are just the main couple i am anticipating.
Also note that the depths and amounts of retracements may vary - making it seem that there are way more options for price to travel but they are all pretty much the same - As long as the direction continues in the same manner and the pullbacks react at significant areas, i am not too worried.
As long as my anticipated direction and behavior reflects the actual behavior on the charts, I am not fixated on price hitting the exact numbers like 158.500 etc. I just have those as a rough guide or area.
When price hits those areas i will then readjust and re-assess my perspective and analysis. 😊
AUDJPY - 1Hr Analysis and Projection updateHey guys,
Just an update on AJ. These are a couple of the options i have drawn out as my biases. I am completely aware that price can continue bearish, and that price can also not retrace at all and continue bullish.
If I am looking to enter, I need price to retrace to either of those key levels inside the FIB and then give me confirmations. This retracement will put me in the best overall position to buy with minimal risk.
It just makes more sense for price to go long to me for a few reasons:
1. Its trending in a bullish channel - Traders are caught that these channels play out perfectly every time and to treat them the same and enter at a break and retest or whatever they are taught. This thing looks too pretty and too perfect - and i always say whenever something looks too good to be true it usually is. So, it's just accumulating liquidity at this point and its getting ready to remove everyone from the market.
2. Because of this channel - Everyone and their dog is selling from the top of it causing the overall sentiment for AJ to be bearish. Its 69% bearish at this point, so it makes so much more sense for the market to target all of these sellers first. If it still wants to drop after that and continue bearish it can - but it's definitely not going anywhere bearish until it raids liquidity and manipulates price.
3. The Daily and weekly - Like i said before look - like a perfect 'Head and shoulders' - which means its luring all the new pattern traders in and accumulating them over time. Again - If you were ever taught that a H&S means only reversals and sells, I suggest you get a lobotomy and forget that info ASAP as they are one of the biggest liquidity traps in the market. Well, if you know how to trade them, they aren't. But because of the way they are taught - they end up blowing everyone's accounts. Including mine for my first year of trading. 🙃
These are just my personal biases, and I am aware that price can do many more things - But this is the only thing that i am looking for in terms of me entering. If it does something different i will adjust my perspective and my analysis accordingly. If you are bearish or have a completely different perspective to me and your charts look totally different, do not second guess yourself because I could be the one that is wrong, and price may play out the way you want. Be confident in your analysis and your skill and don't second guess yourself.
It took me 3 years to be able to finally come on here and share my ideas because I was so easily influenced, and I would always look at other people's charts and think i was the one who was wrong and i would think i wasn't good enough to be a trader - Only to enter the other persons trade and copy their analysis and it would hit SL and price would go the way I had originally drawn out!! So just always trust in your analysis and be confident in yourself always and that is honestly a large part of this journey.
A Strong Uptrend Pattern!The daily and weekly candlesticks indicate a positive trend. Hence, a strong uptrend pattern backed by large volume confirms the uptrend movement towards the price resistance R1.
MACD indicates a positive outlook, hence, confirming the price uptrend.
Precaution for a price correction between 5%-10% from the recent price with a minimum volume being transacted.
Let's save EKOVEST in WL and watch out for significant price movement after the price correction towards R2.
R 0.435, 0.490
S 0.365
GJ - WEEKLY PROJECTIONSimilar to my previous post on the Monthly.
These are my HTF projections So obviously, there's not much detail on them but I am a swing trader and I like to project from the monthly downwards as there is a lot that is missed if you don't analyze from the monthly down in my opinion.
I have deleted the monthly fib because it clutters my chart but keeping this in mind you can see its reacted at the monthly fib and now, we are currently sitting at the weekly/daily fib to go bullish. Also - If anyone has ever told you that a 'head and shoulders pattern' is great for determining reversals, make sure you go get a lobotomy and forget it ASAP because they are one of the biggest Liquidity Raids/Price Manipulation setups you will ever find and rarely ever play out like your courses tell you.
Just like AJ - It looks too pretty and too perfect to continue as a 'Head and shoulders' into a downtrend. I would be very surprised if it did, and the only way I could ever see it doing that is if it has a massive liquidity raid and manipulates everyone out of the market before reversing and becoming bearish.
But - I never say never because anything is possible, and you have to always keep an open mind otherwise you will never make money in these markets.
At the moment - its looking like GJ is accumulating sellers because most sellers are taught to sell when they see a 'Head and shoulders'. I'm thinking it will temporarily trend bearish into the lower fib to remove liquidity first before it reverses to continue bullish after removing all buyers.
Don't forget that the weekly/monthly Fib has not been touched yet so I'm waiting for price to trend bullish to fulfill it. From there we have a few options but i will assess and adjust as the week goes on. It may trend bullish, hit the Fib and retrace to remove more liquidity and then either tank or continue bullish removing all sellers and also fill that imbalance to the left. Thats what i would like to see but it's way too early to tell.
:)
GJ - DAILY PROJECTION + ANALYSISFor me to enter i would need GJ to come down and hit the current fib and 158.500 or 157.500 to buy it up.
At 164.500 I'll need to assess what price wants to do to there because it can drop from there or it can retrace temporarily and fake everyone into selling at that fib only to continue bullish and raid everyone's stop losses. (I would if I was a bank)
This is probably my 1st choice of outcome as it just screams pure evil and hedge funds. Now as you can see - there are 2 bullish options and they both just depend on the depth of the retracement at the fib.
Basically, it depends on how pissed off the banks are on a Monday morning (today). If they feel like running everyone out of the market, they will flood the market and cause that deep retracement at about 156.500 or 157.500 or lower and THEN continue bullish.
Or they will only cause a shallow liquidity raid and let some of us live at roughly 162.500 or slightly lower and then continue bullish.
Remember - whatever I say here is not verbatim.
ANYTHING and everything can happen. I am always re assessing and readjusting my analysis's - as some of my projections will change mid-week and I'll then have a new projection depending on how price plays out and also depending on this week's news as there's a lot. (I don't trade news)
I will say this again and again - you MUST adapt to the market. Just because your projection at the beginning of the week says one thing it doesn't mean you need to stick to it just to prove to everyone on trading view and on your Instagram that you are 'right'. You will end up losing all your money and end up deleting your insta and blocking everyone.
During the week, if your analysis plays out differently to your Sunday projection so be it! Who cares if your wrong? Change it and adapt to the market conditions and be confident.
That is the difference between professional and amateur traders. There is no shame in being wrong in your analysis. What's wrong is being stubborn and wanting to always be right just to prove a point. The market doesn't give a f*ck if you are right or wrong it will just eliminate you with everyone else. The traders who adapt and evolve with the market conditions are the ones that make it and thrive. The sooner you can do that, the sooner you will make money consistently. :)
Head & Shoulders Pattern counters meThis Head and Shoulders Pattern counters my original trading bias. In case you doesn't get it, I'm having a buying bias on this AUDCAD, so the Head and Shoulders Pattern is like a kill-joy. I'll still trade the pattern once the market retest back to the level I am looking for.
However, my overall bias on AUDCAD remains Bullish.
Free 21pips to grabIf you have been following me, you would know this is not the kind of Trade I'll be sharing. But there you go. Shorting on the Red Line and Turning your shorts to long once it has a pattern confirmation on the blue like is where you get to long the same pair.
It's kind like free money, until it doesn't work.
If I have to pick a side, I will focus in looking for a Shorting opportunity, and that's because a Bearish Shark Pattern 🦈 has formed up.
EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Feb23,Wk1EURUSD is on a Bullish Trend 🐮. On the Daily Trend EURUSD hit a resistance at 1.0878 as the market respect the Bearish Crab Pattern's HOP Level. If you are looking for Trend Trading Opportunity (looking to buy), I'll be looking to long at 1.0817 because the potential Bullish Shark Pattern converge with the Bullish Crab Pattern, this will attract 2 groups of buyer to engage the trade.