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Will AUD Rally Lasts? While stock market selloff triggered a wave of speculations about the possible stock bubble burst, investors were in no rush to buy safe havens and to dump risky assets. NZDUSD and AUDUSD actually became the outperformers among the major currency pairs. Does it mean the market stopped loving USD, or it’s just a temporary correction of the most oversold currencies? In order to answer the question we need to dig into fundamental drivers of recent commodity currencies sell-off. The key factor of pressure for AUD was the news about China-US trade wars. The escalation of the conflict should bring the decreasing demand for imported by China goods. And guess, who is the key trading partner for Australia? China! However, today there were rumors that China is ready for new round of talks, and it gives a hope that two big economies will be able to come to an agreement. If so, it may support AUDUSD on its further the way up. The pair is currently trying to tests the high for the day at 0.7128. A move higher will open the way up to 0.7145.
by HelenRush
GBP: Two Factors To Watch on Thursday GBPUSD is the pair of the week, as it appreciated 4th day out of the last five. The market is full of rumors and hopes. On Wednesday, the British newspapers reported that there were chances to see some draft agreement by next Monday. It means that the officials can be just in time for EU summit scheduled for the next week. There are speculations that a customs union will be built to protect trade between UK and EU after Brexit. The market is pretty tired of all this rumors around the Brexit deal lasting for several years. However, this time it looks like real progress, and the hope keeps GBP alive with a good potential of going higher. There are two important factors tomorrow that may have an effect on the pound moves. First, keep an eye on the BOE’s Governor speech that may update the Carney’s stance on monetary policy. Any positive hints may support the demand on the cable. Second, there are US CPI numbers in store. On Wednesday PPI report showed a slight decrease putting the USD under additional pressure. If consumer prices disappoint as well, we may see GBPUSD rushing higher with initial target at 1.3260.
by HelenRush
Sell Pound – Buy Sterling GBP keeps outperforming EUR as the market feels the taste of Brexit deal in the air. There are still some issues related to Irish border, confirmed by UK spokesman James Black. His confirmation that the actual deal has yet to be done sent GBPUSD lower during the day to 1.3060 area. However, many investors are unwilling to send the pound lower, as there is the feeling that the UK gets closer to the deal. Besides, this week brings some important reports from the UK starting from trade balance, industrial production and ending with monthly GDP report. Any positive numbers may give a much needed support to the British currency. Meanwhile, sterling looks much stronger in cross with euro where current pressure from Italian budget outweighs the long-term problems of Brexit negotiations. Despite the hopes the local watchdog agency may dismiss the current deficit proposal, market still feels that Italian government will stick to it putting under pressure the local fixed income market. In these circumstances EURGBP has all the chances to continue its slide down with the nearest target at 0.8730 followed by strong support level around 0.87.
by HelenRush
1
USDJPY – It’s All About USD Weakness USD/JPY is on radar as it managed to lose 150 points during the last 3 days, with 100 pips losing on Monday. There were speculations that the key trigger of the pair move was risk-off sentiment in the financial markets, with Italian budget woes pressuring the stock markets. However, it hardly correlates with AUD and NZD moves that managed to add around 40 pips during the day. It means the key driver of USD/JPY moves is rather USD weakness than anything else. Long-term picture is still bright for the American currency given the aggressive stance of Jerome Powell, and high chances of rising inflation pressure that may be a good argument for more rate hikes in store. In this environment, buying USD/JPY on dips looks like a good strategy to follow. The nearest strong support lies around 113.00 area. If the pair fails to break below, there are high chances for a rebound with initial target at 113.60 followed by 114.20.
by HelenRush
Dollar: will NFP disappoint? The greenback has pulled back on Thursday after the initial rally across the board. The EURUSD pair regained the 1.15 figure, while the cable jumped above 1.30 due to dollar correction coupled with signs of stabilization in Italy and some positive Brexit developments. However the last trading day of the week may bring some adjustments in dollar pairs after the US NFP employment report. While the consensus expectations for headline data point to around 185,000 jobs added, traders look to stronger numbers citing the pre-NFP leading indicators. In particular, ADP employment report came out above consensus at 230K against a forecast of 185K. The employment components of the PMIs also exceeded expectations. But let’s not forget that markets pay a closer attention to wages data lately, so this indicator will be the key driver for the short-term dollar dynamics. So should the wages show a big surprise and come out above the expected 0.3% rise, the buck will resume the rally that was fuelled by the recent jump in the US Treasury yields. Otherwise, the USD will finish the week on a negative note
by HelenRush
USDJPY set to resume the ascent USDJPY retreats from fresh 2018 highs registered at 114.54 earlier in the day. Yesterday, the pair jumped aggressively and pierced the 114.00 handle for the first time early-November 2017. The rising US Treasury yield is behind the widespread dollar strength, while the current pair’s retreat from tops is due to the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the global financial markets. According to the IMF, Japan needs to continue its accommodative monetary policy and maintain long-term interest rate target. The Fund has also mentioned the increased downside risks to Japan, citing weaker global demand and uncertainty on trade as factors that could undermine growth. Though there was nothing new in the statements, this doesn’t bode well for the yen that struggles to resist the pressure from dollar bulls amid the persistent monetary policy divergence. In this context, the longer term outlook for the Japanese currency remains uncertain, with risks skewed to the downside amid low inflation and bank of Japan’s commitment to accommodative monetary policy. As such, the USDJPY could resume the ascent as soon as risk sentiment improves. The initial upside target lies at 114.70 and then at 115.00.
by HelenRush
Dollar on the offensive amid “hawkish” Fed The greenback remains supported after some correction attempts earlier in the day on Wednesday. The Fed officials’ rhetoric confirms the central bank’s commitment to further gradual tightening which helps the USD index stay close to six-week highs registered yesterday. The EURUSD pair is still under pressure despite the reports that Italy may offer concessions to the EU on deficit aims. It looks like traders refrain from euphoria amid a lack of details on the issue. However, the immediate downside pressure on the single currency has eased somehow. The price failed to challenge the 1.16 threshold during the Asian session and the risk of a decline towards the key 1.15 support remains. The pair’s unwillingness to show a more sustainable recovery is partly due to positive market expectations ahead of Friday’s US NFP data. The bulls hope to see strong employment and wages data which could fuel dollar demand further. Otherwise, EURUSD could get back above the 1.16 figure and thus get into positive territory on weekly charts.
by HelenRush
Oil: time for demand-side concerns? The crude oil markets are further supported by the looming US sanctions on Iran that are set to start on November 4. From its lows registered in August, Brent has risen by 20%, mostly on concerns that some additional shortfalls could tighten the already balanced market further. Apart from Iran, traders fear that Venezuelan production will continue to decline, which could bring a deficit of global supply at some point. Against this backdrop, despite the dollar bullishness, Brent climbed above the $85 threshold for the first time since early-November 2014 yesterday. On Tuesday, we see some profit-taking and a retreat of prices below the key handle. In a wider picture, as the barrel is getting closer to $100, supply-side fears could be replaced by demand-side concerns as the elevated prices may derail the global demand and erode the economic growth, especially amid the ongoing US-China trade war and the decline in many emerging market currencies. And this is a risk for a $100 scenario.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
GBPUSD: “sell on rallies” still favoured The pound has stopped its aggressive decline on Monday, with the pair is trying to recover its ground and find a bottom in the 1.30 area. The latest relief came from surprisingly strong UK PMI data. The manufacturing index rose 53.8, above the expected 52.5, after three months of slowing. The prior result was revised higher to 53 from 52.8. Moreover, the output expanded at the fastest pace in four months. However, it’s just a local bullish driver which will likely be only a short-term boost for GBPUSD as Brexit issues remain in market focus this week. The annual Tory party conference could bring back bearishness to the sterling. Traders will closely follow the PM May’s speech on Wednesday, so the downside risks for the pound persist from this front as the two sides haven’t still resolved some of the key issues in the “divorce” negotiations. As such, the pound looks interesting for a “sell on rallies” play as long as there is no significant progress in the Brexit deal. Another source of uncertainty for the British currency is the widespread solar strength after the FOMC meeting last week. So after some attempts to get back above the 1.31 threshold, the pound could challenge the 1.30 threshold and refresh mid-September lows in the 1.2970 region. 
by HelenRush
What TimeFrame do traders look at most? What should they look @?I am still working on my first strategy (been for weeks now) and have several more after this, but from what I saw the 4-HR and 1-HR chart seem to provide the best signals. Also, all my strategies are based on the daily chart (if I see these factors align on daily then I look for signals on H-1 H-4 charts such as macd divergence or something). So are these timeframes the ones people look at the most? I will look at trading views ideas to find out! 28 09 2018 Daily ideas 13 pages: 234 15 min ==> 18 ideas 30 min ==> 11 ideas 60 min ==> 46 ideas 120 min ==> 13 ideas 240 min ==> 65 ideas 480 min ==> 5 ideas 720 min ==> 4 ideas 1D ==> 56 ideas 3D ==> 4 ideas 1W ==> 12 ideas Total = 234. H4 = 27.7%. H1 = 20%. Covered > 70% with just D1 H4 H1. Ideas per ticker: BTC--- = 76 ideas (and all the top ones) XRP--- = 23 ideas EURUSD = 15 ideas Gold = 13 ideas ("Gold," + "XAUUSD,") ETH--- = 12 ideas GBPUSD = 9 ideas USDJPY = 9 ideas LTC--- = 9 ideas Total for those: 166 All the rest no one cares about: 68. USD in the name = idk around 200 :D ----- Popular all time: Top ideas = Bitcoin November 2017 to mid-2018 (not a bubble) All time top idea noncrypto views: EURUSD 10935 views. 31th top idea for Bitcoin at the bottom of page 2: 75140 views (not a bubble) BITCOIN BITCOIN BITCOIN BITCOIN AAA MAKE IT STOP. All time top idea for Bitcoin number of views: You don't even want to know. Of the 2 first pages (top 37 ideas): Number of ideas that are not Bitcoin ==> 6/37 Number of ideas that are not Crypto ==> 2/37 EURUSD + Gold TWO. And one of them just got alot of likes but not that many views. T.W.O. Out of sqkn,fkqsin,f 37. 2 2 2 2 2 2. NOT A BUBBLE! Clear proof this is the revolution right. It is only the beginning? The whole planet is looking at crypto. Number of people interested only in crypto / number of (real?) traders (using approximate number of views) = 100.000 * 37 / 80.000 = 46 to 1. Oh ye that does not look at all like a bubble. Hordes of cryptoer outnumbering traders that do not care what chart they trade as long as it moves 46 to 1. Keep in mind crypto is sideways 90% of the time. Seems legit. ------------------ Ok so for finding out the used timeframe I will have to filter... I am not trying to figure what novices and noob authors with troll ideas that get hundred of thousands of views use for Bitcoin. Forex filter let's go. So this will just shows what the POPULAR authors use. Not your common folk eager to give me his money :D Top 10 pages of most popular all time ideas for FX. 18/ page. 180 total. 60 ==> 52. 29% 240 ==> 80. 45% D1 ==> 41. 23% Covers 96%. 15 min charts rarely make it to most popular all time obviously. ------------------ Newest currencies only (28 09): top 20 pages. 360 ideas. 60 ==> 107. 29.5% 240 ==> 132. 36.5% D1 ==> 64. 18% Covers 84% ------------------ Newest currencies pages 21 to 40. 360 ideas. 60 ==> 100. 27.5% 240 ==> 129. 36% D1 ==> 79. 22% Covers 85.5% ------------------ We pretty consistent. Going to make these stats again next week. So was I right about these TimeFrames? Yes. Yes I was :D So it all makes sense. The Timeframes coving 85% are the ones giving all the right signals, while other TF just give false signals all the time! Conclusion: do NOT go against the herd. The more people look at something, the stronger it will be. Do not try looking for hidden secrets (well... not by themselves). Do not try to fight the capital (or magical :p) markets. Go for the obvious supports, trendlines, and oscillators every one is looking at, and on the popular timeframes. Love the market, respect it, and the market will love you back ;)
Education
by MrRenev
2
EURUSD and the wind of change The EURUSD extends its slide on Friday after sharp losses yesterday, as traders are digesting the developments in Italy. The government approved a controversial budget, which aims for a deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2019.The markets expected that the deficit would be below 2%, in line with EU rules. Moreover, the number may get even higher as the budget is debated in parliament. In addition to this, we see a widespread rally in the greenback after a “hawkish” Fed’s rhetoric during the meeting this week. Meanwhile, fresh economic numbers added to the gloomy picture around the single currency. After Germany's positive CPI readings yesterday, traders were disappointed as the Euro zone core inflation fell back below 1.0%, down to 0.9% -1.1% expected. On Monday, the pair climbed above 1.18 for the first time since mid-June, while at the end of the week the price has slipped below 1.16 and registered a two-week low at 1.1570. In the absence of corrective technical signals and positive fundamental drivers, EURUSD could target the 1.15 handle, especially as the EU officials express concerns over Italy’s budget plans.
by HelenRush
Brent: market doubt is driving prices higher Brent crude extends its gains on Thursday, with price has refreshed four-year highs marginally below the $82 handle which is the immediate target for bulls now. The barrel has trimmed gains later but remains in the positive territory staying afloat above $81. The key drivers for the market are expectations of the US sanctions on Iran as well as OPEC’s decision not to increase production further. However, there are reports today that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers have discussed possible output increase last week in Algeria, and that the countries decided to revisit the issue of possible increase in December meeting. Saudi is said to plan to boost oil supply by 200-3-00K bpd in next two month. However, the market reaction to the reports is limited as this is not enough to compensate for lower Iran output as the total shortfall is expected to come around 1 million bpd. As long as market participants doubt that the key producers will be able to compensate for the shortfall in Iran and Venezuela, the bullish trend will remain intact. Brent could shift to a corrective mode in the near term, but the potential profit-taking should be limited at this stage.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Gold still capped by $1,214 Gold price continues its one-month consolidation with few signs of a more robust breakthrough in either direction in the daily charts. However, the upcoming FOMC decision could bring a more aggressive price action in the precious metal market, depending on the dollar direction. There is some pick up in dollar demand in the short-term charts, which keeps the metal on the defensive. Obviously “hawkish” hints by the Fed will drive the yellow metal lower, with the target at $1,185. Currently, the bullion is changing hands below the $1,200 level again, unable to sustain its shallow gains as the downside pressure on the greenback is limited. Should however investors rush to “sell the fact” after a rate hike, gold could attract a decent buying interest. On the upside, the metal is still capped by the $1,214 figure that prevented prices from a more steady corrective recovery on several occasions since early August. As long as the yellow metal remains below this threshold, downside risks persist.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
FOMC: "buy the rumour, sell the fact"? The greenback is under pressure against the European counterparts on Tuesday, with EURUSD is back on the way to 1.18, though the impetus looks rather limited for the time being. Traders have already digested slightly more “hawkish” Draghi’s statement, and now the markets are preparing for the FOMC meeting that concludes tomorrow.  The probability that the US central bank will increase rates tomorrow is nearly 94%, so this step has been priced in already. So it is possible that we’ll see the traditional "buy the rumour, sell the fact" trade against the dollar should the Federal Reserve fail to hint at a rate hike in December. Another risk factor for the greenback from the meeting is the Fed’s potentially cautious tone when speaking about the trade war consequences for the economy and the monetary policy as well.  As such, should we see a negative scenario and a play against the dollar, EURUSD could challenge the 1.18 threshold once again and refresh the nod-June highs, depending on the FOMD rhetoric. The chances of another rate rise in December, according to the market positioning, are currently marginally above 76%.
by HelenRush
EURUSD: focus on FOMC and Italy The EURUSD pair is back on the offensive after a brief dip late last week. The price is trading around 1.1770 on Monday, but the recovery impetus looks limited due to some risk events due later this week. Besides, the euro’s upside potential is capped by a slight risk-off tone in the global markets. On Wednesday, the FOMC will announce its two-day meeting results. As a rate hike is already priced in, investors will focus on the tone of the central bank’s statement and its dot plot. Should the Fed express confidence in further robust growth of the US economy and dismiss the risks from the escalating US-China trade war, the greenback will rise across the board. The next day, the Italy’s government will present its budget proposals, and there is a risk that the plan will disappoint the markets. As such, in a negative scenario, EURUSD could get quickly below the 1.17 threshold and challenge the 1.1650 area. And the potential risk aversion may increase the potential downside pressure on the single currency.
by HelenRush
EURUSD targets 1.20 due to dollar weakness The greenback is mixed on Friday and remains unsettled in general despite a rise in the US Treasury yields. The EURUSD pair has briefly probed the 1.18 figure a break of which could open the way to 1.20. The price remains close to June highs but refrains from another bullish wave after yesterday’s aggressive rally. Apart from dollar weakness, the single currency is supported by stabilization of Italian bond yields as well as by general risk-on sentiment globally. In this context, the euro has a potential for further rise, especially as the speculations about the prospects for a slower tightening by the Fed next year. On the other hand, the economic outlook remains uncertain in the euro one, and today’s fresh PMI data which came on a mixed note confirm this. As such, this factor could cap the pair’s bullish potential in some way. As for the dollar itself, the prepositioning ahead of the Fed meeting due next week shows that investors don’t hope for some aggressive signals, while the third rate hike this year has been fully priced in already. So the bullish outlook for EURUSD remains intact and could be derailed if the risk-off tone reemerges.
by HelenRush
Brent struggles to push for better levels Crude oil prices continue to grind higher on Thursday, with Brent has settled around the $79 figure after a brief jump to $79.30 earlier in the day. The price remains in the positive territory and looks set for further rise with the key target at $80. Talks of $80 Brent help the prices to stay elevated as following the comments by Saudi Arabia, similar statement came from Iran. The country’s oil minister highlighted that oil at $80 a barrel is a “suitable” price. Meanwhile, the expected major decline in global supply as a result of sanctions on Iran further keep the market afloat. The fact that the US crude oil inventories decline for a fifth consecutive week adds to the positive sentiment as well. On the other hand, it seems that the barrel lacks the upside impetus to challenge the key barrier again, and that the existing bullish drivers are not enough to push Brent to better levels in a more sustained manner. Moreover, the risk of some profit-taking is growing as the proximity to the $80 level deters investors. But as long as the greenback under a substantial pressure, Brent will likely remain on the offensive.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
GBPUSD: downside risks are still there The pound briefly jumped to fresh two-month high of 1.3175 in a knee-jerk reaction to strong UK inflation data. The headline consumer price index rose to its highest levels in six months and was a surprise for markets. However, GBPUSD failed to sustain gains and partially retreated, in part due to the fact that there was much summer-related boost to the CPI for August. But let’s not forget that sterling receives a decent support from positive Brexit comments recently, from both sides. As such, further signs of moving closer to the deal and any substantial progress in negotiations between the EU and UK will help to underpin the pound down the road. And now, as the inflation has accelerated, the Bank of England rate hike expectations could increase, which is also supportive for the pound. But the bullish scenario could be derailed as the greenback may rise across the board in pre-positioning for Fed rate decision due in a week. And this factor could serve as a driver for profit-taking in the GBPUSD pair should the negotiators fail to reach a meaningful progress in the coming days. Technically, the pair continues to target the 1.32 level, but could reverse gains and get back below 1.31 as dollar demand is expected to pick up.
by HelenRush
Brent spike is unjustified Crude oil price action looks unstable these days, with Brent tends to grind lower since reaching a peak above $80 last week. The barrel has rebounded after a brief dip towards $77 support earlier on Tuesday and jumped aggressively to $78.80 recently on the reports that Saudi Arabia said to prefer Brent above $80. However, the asset remains vulnerable to losses down the road, and the spike is hardly justified. Generally, the key source of distress for crude oil prices comes from the ongoing US-China trade war. Trump has slapped tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods overnight. Beijing vowed to retaliate and accused the US President of poisoning trade talks. As such, this factor remains the bearish driver for Brent as the escalation of the conflict causes concerns over the global demand. Besides, Iraq can increase oil production immediately to support the market ahead of the implementation of US sanctions on Iran, while Russia’s Novak said yesterday that OPEC and its allies could discuss the possibility of increasing oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day during the upcoming meeting scheduled on September 23. As such, the market will continue to follow the developments from these two fronts in coming days, while recovery attempts will likely be limited and short term due to the lingering downside risks for demand and the prospects of increasing OPEC supply.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Dollar remains attractive for buyers The greenback started the week on the defensive as part of a marginal profit taking after a rally on Friday fuelled by strong US economic data. Despite the upside impetus has abated, the buck stays afloat as investors anticipate another escalation of the US-China trade war which could trigger another sell0off in the riskier assets. US is reported to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports in the first half of the week, but at a rate of 10% instead of 25% signaled earlier, which partly explains the limited buying pressure on the USD and a relatively timid risk aversion at the start of a new trading week. Nevertheless, as the talks between the two countries are at a risk, and fresh mutual tariffs are looming, the dollar may yet receive a decent support from this front down the road as the conflict is far from being resolved. Additionally, the Fed is expected to raise rates later this month, which is another bullish factor for the greenback. As such, EURUSD could resume the decline after a potential rebound above 1.17. In the coming days, the pair could easily lose the 1.16 figure should the trade tensions escalate further.
by HelenRush
Retail sales report is the last hope for the dollar  The greenback dropped dramatically following the dismal inflation numbers on Thursday. The EURUSD, which also gained on a more “hawkish” Draghi rhetoric, jumped to two-week high of 1.17. However the pair didn’t dare to challenge the psychological level as the knee-jerk market reaction ebbed, but still looks set for another leg higher as the dollar remains on the defensive. In his new tweet, Trump denied pressure for a trade deal with China and confirmed that his country “will soon be taking in billions in tariffs”. This statement sent the China’s yuan lower and thus has partially eased the downside pressure on the greenback. It looks like the trade conflict between the two countries is far from being resolved, which means the buck still has a bullish potential despite the recent waves of weakness. In the short term however, the EURUSD pair could get a chance to challenge the 1.17 barrier with the immediate target at 1.1720, should the US retail sales report disappoint. The weak CPI figures pushed back investor expectations for further Fed rate hikes, and now some market participants are starting to doubt that the central bank will dare to hike two more times this year. This is a significant downside risk for the greenback, so retail sales data should come in better than expected to reassure the dollar bulls.
by HelenRush
Gold supported by trade talk hopes Gold prices show indecisive price action on Thursday as the greenback has been consolidating either. Yesterday, the precious metal gained decently following a strong rejection from lows around $1,192. The prices now stay above the 20-DMA and the $1,200 handle which is however not enough to confirm a shift to a recovery mode. Everything depends on the dollar behavior as the negative correlation between the buck and the bullion now exceeds 90% in monthly terms, which is more than normal. The greenback in turn is at crossroads as the risk sentiment has improved, while on the other hand the prospects for further Fed tightening help the currency to stay afloat. In this context, today’s US CPI report will be the key short-term driver for the dollar and for the yellow metal as well. Strong numbers could derail the latest recovery attempts and send gold back below $1,200. In a broader picture, the downside risks for the metal still persist. However, should the US-China trade tensions abate as the two sides have agreed to resume trade talks, the safe-haven support for the currency will weaken substantially. Such a scenario will open the way to a more robust correction in gold prices
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD could be hit by ECB The euro reversed its gains from the start of the week and turned lower on Wednesday, despite there is no evident risk aversion in the markets and the dollar demand is rather subdued. EURUSD has got back below the 1.16 threshold and the 20-DMA, down to 1.1570.  The local bearish catalyst for the single currency is another dismal economic report from the euro area. The industrial production contracted further in July, while analysts expected some rebound in the output.  So the euro looks nervous ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting which could hurt the pair further should the central bank points to downside risks to growth and lowers its growth outlook, citing weaker external demand amid trading wars. However, even a cautious Draghi’s tone won’t be enough to challenge the ECB’s intensions to normalize policy, at least, not at this stage. More alarming signals could emerge in case the global economy feels the real effect from the trade conflicts.  Anyway, a slightly more dovish tone by Draghi than expected could fuel the current bearish correction in the EURUSD pair. The key support ahead of the 1.15 threshold lies at 1.1525. 
by HelenRush