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Gold needs to confirm recovery Gold is trading mostly in a recovery mode this week, with the price is getting closer to challenging the 200-DMA at $1,307 once again. The metal closed above the $1,300 threshold yesterday, which open the way to further rebound in the short term. On Thursday, gold is up 0.30% on the day so far. The reason behind a better tone around the precious metal is the local dollar weakness which came amid a spectacular euro recovery due to easing political tensions in Italy. Weaker-than-expected US GDP and ADP employment data also added to the bearish pressure on the buck which remains on the defensive today. Against this backdrop, the metal has a chance to confirm the recovery, should the greenback proceed with its bearish bias. This scenario could be implemented if the dollar remains under pressure and accelerates the retreat, should the US PCE index come in lower than expected. However, in the longer term, the yellow metal remains vulnerable to downside risks.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD: the relief is temporary The euro came under intense pressure amid the political crisis in Italy which fueled fears of euro break-up and sent the Italian bond yields strongly higher. EURUSD found support just above 1.15 on Tuesday and is attempting to stage a local recovery during the early European hours. The pair reached 1.1580 so far and may rise further in the short term as Italian yields are back down from highs and the greenback retreats as well. The overall bearish trend in the EURUSD pair is intact and will likely continue amid the political woes in the third-largest euro zone economy. But some local factors may bring a relief to the single currency in the coming days. The eurozone inflation numbers are due tomorrow, and the core CPI may come in at +1.0% y/y, up from the +0.7% y/y in April. Should the report bring bullish signals, the single currency could show a more pronounced recovery. But the downtrend won’t be derailed as long as the political situation in the euro region remains uncertain, and the dollar demand in place. In this context, Friday’s US NFP employment figures will be important as strong wages data may put the euro under pressure again.In this scenario, EURUSD may challenge the key 1.15 mark.
by HelenRush
Gold: downside risks persist Gold remains within a bearish trend, though the recovery attempts have become more pronounced lately amid some corrective signals from the greenback. On the other hand, the rebound prospects still look timid and limited as the precious metal remains below the key moving averages and has derailed the important $1,300 psychological level. The dollar continues to trade higher against majors, with the currency looks set for additional gains this week, should the incoming US data confirm the strength of the country’s economy. The key releases include CPI, GDP, and NFP employment figures. Ahead of these releases, gold will hardly dare to stage a meaningful recovery amid the lingering downside risks. In the short- and medium-term, the yellow metal will likely remain under pressure, and the technicals confirm the bearish picture for now. However, should the price manage to keep above the $1,290 area, the overall pressure on gold will ease partially. The immediate resistance comes at $1,300. A daily close above the 200-DMA at $1,306 is needed to open the way for a local rebound.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Oil market digests signals from OPEC Brent crude continues to bleed on Monday after profit taking has accelerated late last week, with the price dropped to three-week lows around $74,50. Oil attracted buyers on a dip and has recovered slightly early Monday but remains in the red as output concerns still linger. Steep losses in the market were fuelled by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The two top producers are discussing raising oil output by 1 million bpd in the second half of the year to make up for losses in the countries like Iran and Venezuela. Despite the OPEC+ efforts helped to balance the global market, traders concern that increasing supplies may derail the process of further tightening and cease the rally in prices. Fresh US data added to the bearishness as Baker Hughes data showed the drillers added 15 rigs last week, to 859, the highest level since March 2015. This is a clear sign that US production will continue to rise even further. Brent will likely remain under pressure as long as the market prices in the potential increase in OPEC production. This week’s fresh US inventory and production data could add to the bearishness, should the numbers continue to increase. In the short-term, prices need to confirm recovery above $75 in order to regain the 20-DMA at $77.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Brent at risk of deeper correction Crude oil prices fell over 1% on Thursday and continue to correct lower ahead of the weekend. Brent crude is challenging the psychological support of $78, trading at nine-day lows just above $77. After the price derailed the $78 level, the short-term technical outlook has worsened further. The latest sell-off came amid concerns that OPEC may wind down output cuts amid expectations over reducing supplies from Iran and Venezuela as a result of tight US sanctions. Russia and Saudi Arabia have already signaled that this issue will be discussed at the upcoming June summit in Vienna. Amid these speculations, supply concerns that sent the prices to 3.5-year highs recently, may ease as well. Against this backdrop, Brent could continue its bearish correction down the road, especially in case of further signals about the upcoming lifting the OPEC output. The continued rise in US shale drilling and production activity may add to the downside pressure. Besides, profit taking looks attractive at current levels. As such, oil will likely lose the $77 figure in the short term, with the immediate bearish target is now at $76,50.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity The Trump administration has launched an investigation into car imports that could result in new US tariffs. Against this backdrop, the risk aversion has intensified and therefore fueled demand for safe haven assets. The Japanese yen is the main beneficiary in such environment, with the USDJPY pair has slipped from multi-month highs at 111.40, down to ten-day lows around 109.30. Global stock markets turned negative amid a tighter trade rhetoric from Washington, including the lingering doubt on US-North Korea summit. As long as riskier assets remain in the red, the yen will continue to appreciate, despite the overall bullish trend in the greenback. However, as the Fed continues to tighten, and the economic fundamentals remain solid, the dollar will stay on the offensive in the longer term. As such, the ongoing downside correction is seen as a buying opportunity with the prospects for another attack of the 111.00 threshold. In the short term, the pair will likely remain under pressure, though the buck looks attractive already around 109.00.
by HelenRush
FOMC minutes wont’ deter USD bulls The greenback is back on the offensive across the board except for the yen and the Swissy which are in demand amid a broad risk aversion on the back of negative Trump’s comments on trade negotiations with China. The dollar resumed its ascent after a recent mild correction, and the bulls seem to be ready for another attack. The short-term direction in USD pairs will depend on euro zone, UK, and US PMI data. But the key focus today is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The central bank is expected to express optimism over the economic growth and inflation. But the market expectations may be overheated as investors were lately pricing in a more aggressive tightening by the Fed this year. So there is a risk of disappointment, should the tone of the minutes come less hawkish than expected. Even so, this scenario will hardly derail the overall bullish tone around the buck. EURUSD failed to stage a recovery above 1.18. In the medium term, the pair could lose the 1.17 support and go down to the next important area of 1.1660. The immediate downside pressure will ease in case of a rebound above the local resistance of 1.1830.
by HelenRush
Dollar bullish trend remains intact The broad US dollar rally was halted yesterday, and the currency remains under a mild pressure on Tuesday. US 10-year Treasury yields hit one-week low of 3.05% today, down almost 8 basis points from the 7-year high of 3.128% reached last week. The correction both in yields and the greenback looks logical from the technical point of view, as the buck is overbought at fresh 2018 highs. Nevertheless, the impetus within the ongoing retreat looks limited and doesn’t derail the overall bullish trend that started in mid-April. The EURUSD pair has jumped above the 1.18 threshold, but lacks the bullish impulse to regain further ground. However, should the single currency break above the local resistance of 1.1850, the immediate bearish pressure will ease somehow in the short term. The overall picture remains negative, with the dollar bullish trend remains intact. The upcoming Fed meeting minutes due on Wednesday could become a fresh catalyst for USD bulls, should monetary authorities send hawkish signals to the markets.
by HelenRush
1
Gold will continue to bleed Gold prices hit five-month lows on Monday, as the bearish pressure on the safe haven metal has intensified after the reports that US and China decided to put the trade war “on hold”. Good news from this front fuelled demand for risky assets and pushed the greenback to fresh 2018 highs. Against this backdrop, the yellow metal broke below the previous lows around $1,285 and now threatens the support area of $1,280. Despite the oversold conditions, gold is yet to hit the bottom, so it’s too early to buy the metal at this stage. The dollar looks set for further gains amid the rising US yields and decent economic fundamentals, while the easing US-China trade tensions only add to bullishness for the currency. This is the additional negative factor for the precious metal and for the risky assets on the whole. Therefore, gold will likely continue to suffer losses in the coming weeks before it finds a bottom. On the way south, the price may challenge the $1,250 level in the medium term, after a break below $1,280. The fact that the metal is trading below the psychological $1,300 figure and the 200-DMA around $1,306.50 confirms the bearish scenario.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent bulls take a breath Brent touched fresh November 2018 highs yesterday. The price quickly jumped to $80,50 but failed to hold above the psychological $80 threshold and staged a correction which was purely technical by nature. On Friday, crude oil prices are oscillating above $79,50 area and struggle for direction after an aggressive rally. Traders continue to assess the potential consequences of renewed sanctions on Iran which further supports the bullish background and adds to positive market fundamentals. Current levels look quite justified as global glut has almost gone and concerns over the persistent oversupply turned into fears of a deficit amid the ongoing OPEC efforts, falling Venezuelan production, and the expected cut in Iranian oil exports. From the technical point of view, Brent looks overbought at current levels. On the other hand, the fact that the bulls dared to challenge the important and strong resistance of $80 highlights the potential for further rise remains. Prices need to return above the psychological barrier to avoid a more substantial profit taking ahead of the weekend.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin may lose $8,000 Over the last month, BTCUSD is trading within the $8,000-10,000 range. Since May 5, when the price bumped into the psychological resistance of $10,000, the coin is mostly nursing losses. Bitcoin crashed to almost $8,000 overnight and tries to regain ground on Thursday, but the pair obviously lacks the bullish impetus. From the technical point of view, it looks like the digital currency is ready to make another break lower, and this risk persists as long as the price is trading below the 100-DMA at $8,800. The fact that the 100-DMA is below the 200-DMA signals a high probability of resuming the bearish trend in the short term. Should bitcoin finish the week above $8,000, the downside risk will somehow recede. On the whole, despite the cryptocurrency market remains rather volatile, the price moves have become more measured and logical. The BTCUSD pair is hardly ready for a rally at this stage, but the downside risks are limited either. Considering that bitcoin acceptance continues to grow, and more institutional investors engage in this industry, following a possible deeper retreat, the coin will attract decent demand.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin at a crucial point BTCUSD tried to stage a recovery over the weekend, but failed to confirm a break above the 100-DMA around $8,800 and resumed the bearish move on Tuesday. Today, the price has lost around 6% already, and the sell-off could intensify, should the coin lose the key $8,000 mark. There are no any fundamental drivers behind the current moves in the cryptocurrency market where speculative and technical factors continue to prevail. Traders don’t dare to buy after a failed attempt to overcome the $10,000 figure and it looks like bitcoin needs some fresh bullish catalyst to break this psychological level. From the technical point of view, stochastic is signaling oversold conditions, so there is a chance for a recovery from the current levels. On the other hand, the moving averages point to bearish risks in the short term. To prevent further losses, the digital currency needs to bounce from one-month lows just above $8,000 and overcome the local resistance zone $8,400-8,500. Otherwise, the bearish move could accelerate, with the initial target at $7,850.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Gold needs to regain the 100-DMASpot gold is trading lower for a third day in a row on Tuesday, with recovery attempts failed amid the reemergence of dollar demand. The greenback makes a comeback due to another rise in the US Treasury yields above the key 3,00% mark. The yellow metal was rejected at the 100-DMA on Friday and resumed the downside move, probing the $1,310 level once again. Despite the dollar’s bullish impetus looks limited and unsustainable, gold keeps bleeding and remains vulnerable to further losses as the overall demand for the precious metal as a safe haven asset is quite muted. In the short term, gold may get an opportunity to recover or cut its intraday losses, should the buck resume the downside correction. This will depend on the incoming US retail sales data. In the bigger picture, the metal still needs to recover its ground above the 100-DMA which caps the upside. For this, a more sustainable dollar decline is necessary. On the downside, the $1,300 remains the key psychological support. At this stage, there is a low chance of a probing this level.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent: signs of overheated marketCrude oil prices send corrective signals since late Friday. Last Thursday, Brent almost hit $78, its highest since November 2014. The bulls didn’t dare to challenge this psychological barrier which fuelled a partial profit taking at attractive levels. The question is whether the price has formed a top, or it’s just a pause before another bullish wave? The recent rally was fuelled by concerns over Iranian oil supply after Trump announced reimposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic. But now, it looks like the market has already priced in this factor, so it becomes more sensitive to the bad news from the US. According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs increased by 10 to 844 last week, which is another highest level since March 2015. The continued rise in the drilling activity signals the US production will increase further down the road. Besides, concerns over tightening supply have eased somehow following the UAE energy ministry’s comments on enough capacity to mitigate any disruption in the oil market amid the new US sanctions. From the technical point of view, the oil market looks overheated at this stage. Brent needs to regain the $77 figure – where the 20-DMA lies - in order to resume the ascent. Should the bulls fail to find enough impetus, the price will remain in the red and may threaten the $76 level, if the intermediate support at $76,50 gives up.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
BTC’s retreat is painful for short-term tradersThe cryptocurrency market continues to suffer losses on Friday, with Bitcoin is down almost 4% on the day. The coin failed to keep above the key $9,000 threshold and slipped to April 26 lows at $8,676. Should this level give up, we may see a decline towards $8,400 and then to the $8,000 area. Apart from the technical signals, which are getting more bearish after a break below $9,000 and the 100-DMA, there are some other drivers behind the continued correction from highs close to the $10,000 barrier. Some negative pressure came from Nvidia, as the tech firm predicted a big drop-off in cryptocurrency mining demand in the second quarter of 2018. Another source of the increased selling pressure was the news that Mt. Gox trustees have moved another $80 million of digital currency into cold storage. While the current retreat in the BTCUSD pair is rather painful for short-term traders who may continue to take profit in the nearest future, long-term holders of the digital currency still have nothing to worry about, as the price will likely rise again and challenge the December highs around $20,000 in a wider horizon.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Brent set for further gains Crude oil prices refreshed late-2014 highs during the Asian hours on Thursday just below the $78 threshold. Now, it looks like Brent takes a pause after an aggressive rally on Trump’s decision to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran. After this step, which was widely expected, traders started to price in new sanction on Tehran and therefore the decline in Iranian oil exports and production, which fuels oil demand. In the current environment, when OPEC+ efforts coupled with geopolitical risks and the Venezuelan crisis support rising crude oil prices, the upcoming sanctions add to the already wide optimism in the industry as conditions in the global oil market continue to tighten, despite the record US shale production. At this stage, the prospects really look bullish, which on the other hand may prompt some OPEC members to pull out of the pact. Further fate of the agreement will be discussed at the key June meeting of producers. In the short-term, there is a risk of profit taking at the current attractive levels, especially ahead of the weekend and fresh Baker Hughes data due tomorrow. Should Brent fail to keep above the $77 level in the nearest future, the price may retreat towards the $76,30 area, where buyers could reemerge.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin undergoes a healthy correctionBitcoin is nursing losses for the fourth day in a row, with the price tried to challenge the key psychological support at $9,000 earlier on Wednesday. Still, the current retreat looks natural and quite logical, as a break above the $10,000 threshold, strengthened by the 200-DMA, is not an easy task for the bulls. There are still no any significant drivers or triggers behind the move which looks rather technical than fundamental. Nevertheless, at this stage, the BTCUSD is entering a danger zone as a more sustainable movement below $9,000 will open the way to deeper bearish correction before buyers get into the game. Should the cryptocurrency lose this important level, we will see a dip to $8,800 where the 100-DMA lies. A break below may trigger a slide to $8,500 and even lower. In the short term, the digital currency will likely make fresh attempts to remain above the $9,000 area. However, buyers will likely wait for more attractive levels to come back.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Oil waits for Trump decision on Iran The oil market is looking forward the Trump’s decision on Iran. Investors continue to wonder, if the US President will announce today that he withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposes sanctions against Tehran. Over the last month, traders were pricing in the decline in Iranian oil exports and these expectations, coupled with the continuing OPEC efforts, have sent Brent to fresh late-2014 highs above the $76 threshold. Since early hours in Asia, the price is consolidating around the $75,50 mark as the market is on a wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump’s verdict. The risk is that the strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact” may play out today, as traders may rush to a profit taking on the announcement following a short-term jump. While the market is focused on Iran, today’s API inventory data may remain unnoticed by investors. From the technical point of view, Brent needs to regain the $76 level to confirm further bullish impetus. As long as the price remains above the 20-DMA around $73,60, the upside risks prevail in the short term. Should the traders confirm the “sell the fact” trade, the mentioned moving average could serve as a support level.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin doesn’t want to give upBTCUSD refreshed early-March highs over the weekend, but then corrected rather sharply and continues to retreat on Monday. The price reached the levels marginally below the key $10,000 barrier which is a magnet for bulls during the last couple of weeks. This level also coincides with the 200-DMA, so it’s even tougher to break to the upside. Many market participants blame recent Warren Buffett’s statement for the drop in price - the famous billionaire claimed bitcoin is worse than “rat poison squared.” However, the correction is more of a technical nature as the current retreat looks quite natural and healthy after the previous ascent, especially considering the importance and strength of the resistance formed by the $10,000 threshold. Therefore, we expect the coin to resume the bullish bias after this pause, which will open new opportunities for long-term investors. In the near term, it is essential for bitcoin to keep above the support at $9,000, as a break below could fuel a deeper correction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin bulls gearing up for jumpFollowing yesterday’s jump, bitcoin is trading with a bullish bias on Friday, with the $10,000 psychological level back in play. The price is back to mid-March highs around $9,800, but the buyers still hesitate to challenge the key barrier. The latest wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency markets was due to Goldman’s announcement - one of the most well-known investment banks plans to trade bitcoin futures contracts. The news inspired the market participants amid expectations that other large institutions could follow Goldman’s example in the future. Moreover, the announcement was taken as another sign of bitcoin acceptance among institutional investors and the digital currencies becoming more mainstream and popular on the whole. The recent ascent added to the positive technical picture, but the bulls may need some more time to test the key $10,000 barrier. A break above will open the way to fresh tops at $12,000 and higher. But to make the current bullishness sustained, the industry may need some more incentives and catalysts. Should traders proceed to a local profit taking in the short term, the immediate support comes just below the $9,500 mark.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent at the crossroads Crude oil prices struggle to stage a recovery after a correction from the fresh November 2014 highs close to $75. Brent is stuck around the $73 figure on Thursday, with the 20-DMA acts as support for bulls for the time being. Traders hope that Trump will reimpose sanctions against Tehran which will lead to lower oil exports and production from Iran, in addition to OPEC+ efforts and dramatic decline in Venezuelan production. However, the support from the “Iranian factor” looks limited as this scenario is already priced in now. Meanwhile, the US shale companies continue to build their activity, with production climbed to another record high last week, adding 0.3%, which limits Brent’s upside potential at this stage. As the price oscillates around $73, there is a chance for a recovery towards $73,60 in the short-term. This scenario will come true if the greenback continues its downside correction. But should the USD buyers reemerge, the bearish risks will play out, as there is a general uncertainty in the crude markets this week.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin stuck around $9,000Following a failed attempt to test the important $10,000 barrier, bitcoin shows some signs of a minor correction. However, the downside risks remain limited as long as the price clings to $9,000 and holds mainly above the 100-DMA around $8,900. The bulls have retreated recently as the BTCUSD pair needs additional impetus to make a clear break above the mentioned psychological resistance. Corrective signals in the short-term charts look quite natural, but they don’t negate the possibility of another bull run from lower, more attractive levels down the road. In the nearest future, bitcoin may struggle to hold above $,9000, which means the 100-DMA could be tested again. Should we see a deeper bearish correction from the current levels, it is important to preserve the key local support at $8,600. In the bigger picture, the cryptocurrency still looks bullish, and the chance for climbing above $10,000 remains.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Gold vulnerable for further lossesGold prices ended April lower, with a widespread dollar rally put the precious metal under intense bearish pressure. By the way, the greenback had its best month since the election of Donald Trump, as trade tensions continue to ease and the expectations over the Fed tightening path are increasing, fuelling the USD demand. In the near term, the yellow metal could continue to suffer losses as the American currency may gain support from the upcoming Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that begins today. The markets expect to receive some “hawkish” signals from the policy makers who may highlight their readiness to hike in June. Another source of concern for gold bulls is the Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report where the wages data will be in the spotlight. Positive numbers could send the greenback even higher and therefore put the metal under additional pressure. As for technicals, spot gold closed below the key 100-DMA and now threatens the next major support at $1,310. Should the yellow metal fail to hold above this level, we could see a dip towards $1,307.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush