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Follow the AUD Reaction Last week AUDUSD reached 1.8065, not seen since May, 2015. But the very same day it started to fall. Is it the start of bearish trend, or just a correction before another jump higher? This week we have all the chances to understand the right direction. Till the last moment Australian dollar ignored any negative factors both from economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The inflation turned out to be weaker than expected, and the chairman of the central bank said there was no need to follow the peers in rate hiking. However, carry demand has kept supporting AUDUSD recently pushing it higher. And this time the AUD reaction is what matters. If the RBA during the monetary meeting talks about negative effect from local currency appreciation and low inflation, and AUD won’t be sold, it means there is no change of direction in the nearest future. However, we do believe AUDUSD will be sold with the nearest target at 0.7900 followed by 0.7840.
by HelenRush
Brent Is Bound To Rise After OPEC meeting in Saint Petersburg the hopes for meeting balance of supply and demand have grown significantly. Saudi Arabia is planning to reduce oil export in August. Nigeria may join the agreement on oil production cut. The US data also supports the further Brent rise, as API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell 10.230 M, and EIA Crude Oil Stocks change reduced by 7.208 M barrels, significantly beating the expectations and confirming the rising demand on gas during the driving season. The nearest week may bring another confirmation of the evolving trend. If scheduled for tonight release of Baker Hughes data shows another slide of oil rigs count, it may speed up the Brent rise. The nearest target for Brent is at 52.60 followed by 55.00.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Euro Gives A Chance To BuyEURUSD got another reason to rise after the FOMC meeting which market perceived as more dovish than expected. Today, the pair touched highs around 1.1776, not seen since the start of 2015. Well, the Fed disappointed the market with its moderate comments on inflation and its commitments to reduce the balance sheet. Investors took its passion for balance reduction as an alternative to rate hikes. That’s why the chances of the fed funds rate hike before the year end slid to 45%. It means the major part of the market doesn’t believe in further rise of borrowing cost. This is a good reason to sell USD. Meanwhile, everybody is waiting for more hawkish hints from the ECB, as QE stimulus removal is expected this Fall. And every strong European report may only confirm the expectations, driving EUR higher. The current euro retracement is triggered by profit taking after a huge rally, and it gives perfect opportunity to enter the market with longs. The next target for EURUSD may be at 1.1780 followed by 1.1820.
by HelenRush
Sounds like it’s time to sell AUD? AUDUSD got stuck around strong resistance 0.7980 failing to break it through during the last 5 days. This may signal the start of a bullish trend reversal. The only barrier on its way is USD weakness. Today, Australian Dollar came under pressure of two factors – weaker than expected CPI and dovish comments of the RBA’s Lowe. Wehavealreadytalkedaboutitrecently. When a local currency appreciates inflation slows down, and it means there is no need to rush with further rate hikes. Given the export and tourist activity of the country, Australia doesn’t need expensive currency. And this is what RBA chairman talked today. He said there is no sense to move in lock step with central banks that are hiking. Sounds like a hint on no tightening in the nearest future. Sounds like it’s time to sell AUD? If the Fed shows hawkish tone tonight, AUDUSD may gather the pace of its depreciation with the nearest target at 0.7840 followed by 0.7800.
by HelenRush
Euro Won’t Stop EURUSD hit the high not seen since August, 2015 at 1.1712, as any positive argument may trigger the euro rise right now. And this time USD weakness worked just well. Today Philadelphia Non-Manufacturing Index came out below the prior numbers at 23.4 vs. 33.6 in June. Moreover, the New Orders indicator fell below zero to -0.1 vs 19.7. It’s a second tier data, and usually market completely ignores the numbers. But not this time ahead of FOMC meeting scheduled on Wednesday, and amid fears that the Fed is not ready for another rate hike before the year end. In the environment, where the market doubts the Fed will go on tightening, and hopes the ECB will start removing the stimulus as soon as October, EURUSD has all the chances to appreciate further. In such an environment, EURUSD may keep going up without pauses with initial target at 1.1720, followed by 1.18. And current retracement offers a perfect opportunity to enter the market.
by HelenRush
Dollar: A Hope After FOMC USDJPY slid to 1-month low at 110.76. And it happened even though recent comments of the BOJ officials made it clear they would do their outmost to reach the inflation target of 2%. It means there is no talk of stimulus removal, and it should be bad for yen. The pair fell last week only due to USD weakness, driven mostly by political conflicts and economic disappointments. FOMC rate decision is scheduled for release this week. Yes, the market is really disappointed by the series of weak reports that raise some doubts about the chances of another rate hike before the year end. However, the FOMC may confirm the Fed commitment to announce another rate hike on December meeting. And that would be enough to trigger the reversal in USDJPY given its oversold nature, and the contrast of the BOJ position. A wave of short covering may only speed up the possible rise of the pair. The nearest target for USDJPY may become 111.70 and 112.40 to follow.
by HelenRush
It’s Time for Euro To See the SkyEURUSD hit the record 1.1676 level, not seen since August, 2015. And it was right after ECB chairman’s press conference. Draghi did his outmost to persuade the market there is no rush in QE tapering, and no talk about policy tightening. For now. And the market caught the words he was looking for. Draghi said they were not discussing stimulus removal, and the market heard that it might be in October. And this is enough for EUR to keep rising in the medium term. Moreover, today there came another splash of speculations – Reuters cite some sources "with direct knowledge of the discussion" saying that December is too late for changing the policy course. And it means that October is the right guess. In such an environment, EURUSD may keep going up without pauses with initial target at 1.1720, followed by 1.18.
by HelenRush
Why It May Be the Time to Buy PoundGBPUSD has lost almost 100 pips during the first half of the day even though retails sales data came out better than expected. Asusual, it’sallaboutmarketsentimentandexpectations. Retail sales has come significantly above expectations (0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy vs 0.4% mom, 2.5% forecast). But right before the data cable was hit hard by the news that Theresa May is possible to stay be in power for remainder of term. And positive effect from the retail numbers was very short-term. Why investors do not trust current PM? Just because she lost the Parliament elections and is perceived as a weak leader not ready to take the UK out of the EU smoothly. Yes, it’s all about politics again. However, we don’t rule out sell the rumors – buy the facts scenario. As soon as we got the expected final data on negotiations during this week, there will be a retracement. In this case, GBPUSD may come back to 1.3020 and target at 1.3090.
by HelenRush
Euro May Get Hit Ahead Draghi SpeechEURUSD got an unexpected support from the USA, and managed to rise to 14-month high at 1.1564. The thing is that the first reform that Trump was pushing through the Congress failed – two more senators came out against the bill, smashing the chances Obamacare would be reformed in the nearest future. What does it mean for the market? It means Trump would have hard time pushing any other reform in such an unfavorable environment. And if so, the long-term appreciation of USD backed by excessive optimism on huge infrastructural reforms had no any fundament under it. And if so, it’s time to sell American currency. However, in pair with euro we need to be cautious, as the ECB meeting is looming. Market has already priced-in the positive tone of Mr. Draghi coupled with hints on future stimulus removal. And this is the first step to rates increase. And this is a good argument to buy euro, except for one fact. The ECB is very conservative, and doesn’t like when market is overheat. That’s why there are good chances to see the chairman would try to cool down the markets. And it may trigger a huge selloff of EUR. Under this scenario, current levels of EURUSD look very attractive for entering the market with shorts, and the nearest target may stay at 1.1440.
Short
by HelenRush
AUDUSD Touched 1.3-Month High – Time To Sell?AUDUSD broke above the roof of the annual range 0.7166 – 0.7740, and touched the levels last seen on April 17, 2016. But back that time the pair showed the correction lower right after it touched the mentioned levels. Will it be the same this time? At first we need to look at the triggers behind the recent moves. Last week stronger than expected consumer inflation expectations coupled with broad based USD weakness helped Australian Dollar to gain. However, today USD keeps falling against major colleagues, except for AUD. We need to go to fundamentals. Australian economy is very dependent on export with key trading partners. That’s why sharp appreciation of AUD may hurt the economy, as the produced goods and services may become less competitive in the world market. And usually the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t like it. And usually it takes every opportunity to slow down the appreciation. And probably that’s the time to see all that, given 3 Australian policymakers are scheduled to speak during the week ahead. If we see any dovish bias in their comments, it’s time to see AUD/USD, and the nearest target is at 0.7740.
Short
by HelenRush
Yen May Reach 115.00 Soon USD/JPY keeps going up targeting 115.00 which may be reached in the nearest future. Market believes in USD again, and is disappointed about JPY. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls only reassured the market that recent hawkish tone of the Fed was justified. This week we are going to see Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony in front of Congress. And the market is pricing in her even more hawkish tone, pushing USD higher. If Fed’s chairwoman is optimistic enough, USD may go further, and the largest potential it has in pair with Yen, because of the BOJ position. The Bank of Japan has recently sent a clear message that it wouldn’t remove stimulus until inflation reached the target level of 2 per cent. And as the recent official data showed, now it’s only 0.4%. And it means the chances of BOJ tightening are really low, meaning yen has no fundamental reasons for appreciation. For USD/JPY we have only one major barrier at 115.00. The pair may reach this level in a couple of hours, but the breach of it from the first time is doubtful. We need to hear a really hawkish tone of Yellen to see the breakthrough which open the way for a long-term pair rally.
Long
by HelenRush
Silver Crash Resembles Something – GBP Last OctoberNothing said there would be any surprises Asia morning. Especially with silver. But if something can go wrong, it will. Spot silver markets suffered a flash crash in Asian morning. And here is daily chart on pound from October 7, 2016 What’s more – crashes on both assets happened at the same time, early in Asia, when American traders left home, and Asian ones just starting to wake up. The perfect time for an ideal storm. We can argue whether it was a fat finger, low liquidity or algotraders, but the key question now – what’s gonna be next? Having hit a session high of $16.16 an ounce in early trade, silver fell to as low as $14.16 in less than a minute, a decline of over 12%. It came back to 15.81 at the moment of writing. However, we still see some potential to go down. Given the case with GBP/USD that fell in the same manner and in the same time last year, we can say that silver may easily go back to 15.42 in the nearest week, with further target at 15.00.
TVC:SILVERShort
by HelenRush
Pound is bound to riseWhat do we know about GBP/USD? During the last week it survived three disappointments – services, construction and manufacturing PMIs came out below expectations. However, it’s important to know – the pair lost only about 100 pips during that period. And we need to take into consideration that USD was quite strong for the whole week. So, the pair moves say that investors are in no rush to get rid of the pound, as they trust hawkish Carny. And it means that the very first argument in favor of GBP will trigger a broad based rally. Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for release on Friday may become such a driver. We already know the markets are overheated by the recent Trump’s tweets. Better than expected numbers are priced in. Besides, average hourly earnings will stay in focus, as the recent FOMC minutes showed some members were in doubt about the further progress on inflation. If the number of new jobs and average hourly earnings in Non-Farm Payrolls come out below expectations, it may become a trigger to sell USD. In this case, GBP/USD may reach 1.3030 and target 1.31.
Long
by HelenRush
Buy Yen on FridayUSD/JPY has gone too far during the last weeks. And there is still a potential to reach 114.00 ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for Friday. Negative emotions related to Japanese data only pour oil on flames. If you remember, last week’s governor elections in Tokyo showed a huge defeat from Abe's party. And it means that the premier will try to win mass popularity through lower yen that is good for exporters, and ultra easy monetary policy that is good for business on the whole. And all that builds the right environment for yen depreciation. But the factors are mostly priced-in. And we also need to remember the market believes in strong Non-Farm Payrolls published on Friday. Recently Trump tweeted about really good job numbers. And this is in the price as well. Thus, USD may keep rising up until Friday, but we highly recommend you to get out of the market before the jobs release. Or to sell the pair. If NFP data turn out to be worse than expected it may trigger broad based sell-off of USD. Under such scenario, the current levels of USD/JPY look very attractive for bears, and the next downside target is at 112.30.
Short
by HelenRush
Trump Overheated USDDuring the last 3 days, EUR/USD has lost around 100 pips. And again it was all about speculations and panics. It was all about Trump. The US President has gained market attention by its surprising tweets already several times. No wonder, investors are keen on hearing something new from him, and this time was not an exception. Recently, Donald Trump has talked on great job numbers. We don’t know what he meant exactly, but we know the Non-Farm Payrolls release is coming. And some investors took it as a hint this Friday we can see positive data. In fact, it’s a rather realistic scenario, given the story that happened in June. Trump said that very good GDP numbers would be announced soon, and some time later we saw Q1 GDP revised higher. How to trade the news? The market has already priced in strong Non-Farm Payrolls data, and it means that USD may be overbought. If Friday brings lower than expected numbers, it will trigger broad based sell-off of the American currency. Under such scenario, the current levels of EUR/USD look very attractive for bulls, and the next upside target is at 1.1410.
Long
by HelenRush
RBA Cannot Fail the TrendHelen Rush, Senior Analyst at Capital Markets On Monday, AUD/USD lost about 50 pips. But it doesn’t mean anything, as the RBA meeting is coming. The most important thing we need to remember is that whenever the rates go down, to local currency is to follow, and vice versa. But the RBA has no reason to lower rates further, as there is a housing bubble everybody is talking about. Besides, there are major improvement in the labor market, and business activity. Qatar isolation is also in play, as it makes Australia one of the key players on natural gas market. And the copper keep rising as well. The Reserve Bank of Australis should take into consideration the global trend of more hawkish stance in monetary policy. Last week the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada hinted on gradual removing of stimulus. In these circumstances the RBA will mostly probably remain the policy unchanged giving the market the reason to believe the easing mode is over. And that will be enough to make Australian Dollar rise again. AUD/USD may come back to 0,77, and may reach 0,7740 in a couple of days.
Long
by HelenRush
The future of SPX500 - NFP daySo in my humble opinion we have a clear head and shoulders pattern, along with Fib match up to coincide with the NFP report today. Right now I am managing a good client out of an aweful hedge and so this is very crucial for me. The price simply must get up to the target sell level so that I can smash from the top and hit down to close out the bad side of the hedge. My biggest wet dream right now would be to see the NFP pump the rate on SPX500 up to 2135. Truly though anything above 2119 will do me just fine. My suggestion is to go LONG until 2130 - Then smash down with everything you have for the next month or so. Come check me on twitter also if you rock that @rscexclusive
FX:SPX500Long
by RSCexclusive
3
BREXIT BREAKOUT - Talk about a big squeeze!So GBP is being strangled by pretty much everyone right now. Litteraly the asset is in a massive chokehold and fighting for the air to breathe. With so much daily fundamental news the emotion of this asset can be likened to Bridgit Jones, or Madonna, or maybe that blondie who named her kid after a fruit....Basically its a hormonal mess of epic proportions. So weirdly enough my analysis is screaming smash the FIB lines up and ride the waves of breakout.... But the trader in me recommends PUT for end of the day from here.... Like I said hormonal mess. Ride it, but take some safety gear. My money and that of my clients is on the PUT train - Hopefully the driver isn't wasted again..... ;)
Short
by STBinary
Golden heights - XAUUSD The future, predictedAfter the birth into a brand new not so shiny market, I can happily say a vast majority of our active clients listened well and entered into XUAUSD positions with our platform www.STBinary.com Moving forwards we will see no doubt a large accumalitive growth pattern with GOLD. Uncertainty is king remember. Trade re-negotiation deals are coming. Scottish and Irish referendums are coming. German French and Spanish changes are coming. A brave new world indeed - If you want to change your life with trading gains, or simply wish to find out more please do get in touch. Sharing opinions and servicing clients is what we do ;)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by STBinary
2
GOLD - Quantative easing has failed - Time to buy!Janet Yellen, you are a total fool. Mario the ECB is a joke. Camoron? Enough said..... QE has failed. Fear is back to stay. GBP is down in the basement and not coming out for some time. There is only one place to be right now. That is, if you want to profit. Tired of getting margin calls? Liquidity issues? Lack of results? Consistentcy? www.STBinary.com - The street you need to be on if you want to make it in this new world market #Solongfarewellnoneedtosaygoodbye
FX:XAUUSDLong
by STBinary