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Capitulation

Change of plan - new bottom at 2300I gave up on my 1900 target. The reason for it is very simple, the majority of people are expecting it. Heck some of them are even betting on 1300. So here's my new target, the bottom will be somewhere between 2700 and 2300. I will explain it all in details now. In the last three months our most consistent price was around 3675 $. Now you may be wondering why this number? Well in my opinion the whales are still sitting on the sidelines and these candles that you're watching day in day out are just bots trading. 3675 is exactly in between our strongest resistance at 4200 and support at 3200 (give or take few $). Why is our strongest resistance at 4200? Well if you look on the left of the chart this is where BTC was on 4th October 2017 right before it pulled a massive 44 % move to the upside. And the bottom of 3200 happened because on 15th September 2017 was the time when everyone were selling (look at the volume stick). Notice something very similar in my lower order box? Resistance at 2700 was a massive support on 3rd of August 2017 right before BTC went on a 60 % run. I chose 2300 as our lowest support as most of the selling pressure came on 15th June 2017.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by supremetrejdr
2
BTC.USD P-Modeling Pt. 70 The Flying V of Death + June Bullrun?Are you ready for the Final Act before a potential June hype cycle run? Will you be visiting the valley of the capitulated or will you be apart of the valley of the capitulated? These are important questions. Experimental charting on BTC to explain the Final Act. The Flying V of Death is a very unique mechanism that has taken a long time to condition within the ecosystem. But condition they did. Last April, we had a BTC short Squeeze which resulted in a 1250 upward blast candle. Little did the market know.. That BTC short squeeze was not an isolated incident but a planned attack. This attack is about to be replicated but in a different form. Currently, Ethereum Longs are at an ATH. Suspiciously, ETH longs have geometrically mirrored April BTC shorts. See here. This is not a coincidence. This is a trap. A carefully planned trap. I would guesstimate a good 85% of the market is waiting for their glory in a magnificent bull-run. Right now. I would not want to be them. Sure. After we visit the Valley of the Capitulated we can have our hype cycle 2.0. As you can see by my arbitrary placement of the Fib's both circular and linear. It paints a picture that brings us to a final target of $953.00 per BTC. Now before you dismiss me and say "I am just another delusional Bear". Think about it for a moment. Why the hell would the controllers that be, pass up the opportunity to: A: Pass up the liquidity and initiation of despair. B: Pass up the Buy of a lifetime. C: Spend over a year controlling the market to get to this point, and not visit under 2000. D: Waste a golden opportunity to visit the Valley of the Capitulated. (It is nice this time of the year). E: Pass up the opportunity to have mainstream news declare "bitcoin is dead". (They already have the stories ready to go for April and May). So when you hear the mainstream news declare BTC and crypto to be "dead". That is when you go ALL IN. 100x. Is there a very good chance I am wrong. Absolfuckinlutely. But what if... Ask yourself... What if... he is not wrong. We are about to find out. Stay tuned for updates. Glitch420
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Glitch420
6
Update on 1900 price targetIn my previous TA I already stated my key points why BTC should go bellow 3000. Nothing has changed so far. We had a nice pump on smaller altcoins and LTC has in my opinion already reached the top. Here's my new scenario, BTC will try to go past 4200 once again and since there won't be enough volume to push us higher it will just roll over to 3000. Personally I think what we're forming here is a raising wedge. 0.618 fib retracement or 3858 is not gonna hold this time, especially not 3330. Another thing worth to mention is the diagonal support on RSI (yellow line) once we break this expect an immediate reaction. But the most important thing I want you guys to remember is once 200 weekly MA gets broken things will get really ugly. All those hedge funds will want to get out, so expect a huge sell off.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by supremetrejdr
Bitcoin Final Touch to Bottom Fractal Continues2019 for comparison: The Hall and Co 2.0 trading indicator seems to be outlining the bottoming fractal (assuming we are already at the bottom). We just had the local push to 4200 area before dumping then rising somewhat to where we are now. If the bottoming fractal continues to hold true then we are going to have a slow bleed for the next month or so until we wick down to the 3200 support area. I seriously doubt it will break but we will have to wait until then before we decide to go all in at the bottom. Look for super high shorts (as high as they were when we dropped all the way from 6k to 3k), since it also seems that going against when people are heavily shorting is intelligent. Shorts are at the ATL area right now, which is where they were at just before the break to 3k from 6k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bobjames1
BTC & personal saving rate, macro signal for final capitulationFinal capitulation occurred on 12 JAN 2015, during a time in which the personal saving rate made a multi-year high, peaking on 30 JAN 2015. This could help us identify a max point of financial opportunity in overall market conditions and investor psychology. Q4 2018 ended the year with the highest personal saving rate of 2018. Q1 and Q2 readings in 2019 could be instrumental in confirming if a final capitulation has indeed occurred. For added analysis, household debt service payments as a percent of disposable income has been plotted for additional confirmation of consumer strength/risk appetite.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoAlpha0
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simplerHello, Would like to first say that there is so much noice atm in this spiral of emotions. 5% of it is market makers, rest is alot of wishing and thinking TA (emotions). Market makers: Have made bitcoin to their little puppet. They fool everyone in and short it , a synced bitcoin bulltrap for the final capitulation that we will have coming 2 years. And so the matrix shall begin again in the future hopefully. This goes the same for all the finance atm. Youtubers: Feeding on the sheep for the perfect moments to short, and long/close shorts at the supports ( to bring in all the fish for another short) Price: Price moving up is 80% due to the big shorts closing , They created TA and fooled every1 to believe in them while they trade on smart algos and AI bots. Accumulation: Btc is not the main accumulation in this market far from it!. There are crypto projects with way more tech and fundamentals then btc that will be bought up in big scales when the market start to bottom. They will again own majority of the future . This was done 1988-1994 . Proffitable trading: There is leveraged trading , where most are. Atm the perfect conditions for trades with big leverage is to short all the failed rally atempts and possibly long the supports. Booth of them upon confirmations and not trying to hit the perfects price. 2x is enough to begin with and slowly move up upon results My chart: I am very confident in my chart and it actually applies to the major stocks too. Capitulation: This will be very technical and very slow. ( Good time for the making in the future crypto projects) I would love for btc to show different and turn me to a bull, but chances for that are very slim. We might actually get the classic bulltrap predicted, could go as high as 5k+. Can bitcoin fall to Zero? : This would then be a part of a much bigger attempt for a publicly known begining of WW3 . So yes it can go to Zero actually Note: I am not by any means a financial adviser nor a pro trader. I have made good calls and been here long time enough to share something, And come back in the future to see how it actually moved . " Earth is about to make some changes too"
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by SQ88
Bart Incoming for BitcoinSo since we have this continual cycle of pump, consolidate, pump, consolidate; then dump, consolidate: I am expecting a Bart down. It could however go up instead. I am 100% sure though that we WILL see a massive candle very soon. If you want to short/long then flip a coin and put a tight stop loss. The reason I am expecting a Bart down is because this (according to my previous TA) could be the final leg down to the support at the low 3000s before we see good upwards movement. If we look at the 2014 bull run then we see that there is a possibility of a bart up before continual barting to the support. We see what happens soon I guess. Neutral position: waiting for btc to hit support before I buy more.
by bobjames1
Bottom Officially IN. Final Dip Before TakeoffUsing the Hall and Co trading indicator a BSO (Buy Stop Order) has been triggered indicating a local top. We should've had one for BTC but it didn't rally high enough to trigger one. There WAS however a BSO event for ETH: Looking back to the last consolidation period after the 2014 Bull we can see that there are two BSO Peaks and two massive dumps to confirm support at the bottom: That is what we are seeing currently with the most recent dump in the past few hours. If anything it's happening rather soon, but it does also tie into the idea that we start going up properly in May. Gameplan: buy as much of your favourite crypto once this hits rock bottom at the 3400 support area. If it breaks hard and wick down to 2k then that's a steal of a price. Most traders spread the "never catch falling knives meme" but really the bottom is in and the next final dump is commencing. We could have a third BSO Peak (which would be a never before seen BTC feature) but then it would bounce back to the lower 3000s again and find support. This 3k has been rock solid and I don't really see it breaking down. Literally get as much fiat you have (that can be kept in internet funny money until 2023-2025) and put it all in when the dump finishes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bobjames1
Falling Wedge, where are we going.On the Monthly chart we are having resistance on the MA 5 at 4290 and EMA 30 at 4910 and we are having support with MA 200 at 3106. To confirm this falling wedge we would have to breakdown the 200 MA barrier which can be possible. Bottom of the wedge will be at 2324$ march 19th and 1725 May 19th. If we go under the 200 MA we will be there for a while, in this case EMA 100 might be our savior which is now around 1644$. The thing that is making me think we are going down now is MA 10 is about to cross down EMA 15 and EMA 21.
BNC:BLX
by Crypto_Mercy
Weekly bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 Good day Traders Bitcoin is retracing after a few days of battling that DMA50, whilst watching a new episode of paint drying, and no volume follow-through. We're now on the verge of a temporary bearish crossover between EMA15 and EMA200. See the 2 screenshots below of the S&P and DJI which shows the last time we had a downward cross of EMA15 and EMA200 in those markets on the weekly. This actually preceded the 2008 financial crises and doesn't happen very often, so not something to take lightly on the weekly. In fact bitcoin has never had this crossover before, since there's simply not enough history for EMA200 on the weekly chart for us to compare this bearish crossover to. Price is still well below the Ichimoku cloud, its base line, conversion line, and our EMA200 which we unsuccesfully retested in December and again in January, so we're still very much in a down trend. Span A (orange) is still moving down and away from Span B (pink) on the daily chart, signalling a potential temporary acceleration of the the down trend once we have a bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 on the weekly. I say temporary crossover because when it happens, I suspect bitcoin will drop through our WMA200 support to new lows just below our $3k support, and back to the trend line support connecting our 5 Feb 2018 swing low to our December 2018 lows, but we should then have a dead cat bounce with EMA15 crossing back above EMA200, for a rally towards the cloud baseline to around $4900 - $5100, before crossing over to the downside again when we can't get above the base line resistance, resuming the downtrend from there with a move back below WMA200, EMA200 and our EMA15 support. We had a 38.2 fib retracement with this recent long squeeze, so i'm expecting a 161.8 fib extension target of $2757 sometime at the start of March 2019, where there should be an abundance of liquidity from all the stops just below $3k. The herd will believe that the bottom is in and we'll have a bull trap rally to the cloud base line and DMA200 resistance, before resuming the downtrend past our $3k support finding support somewhere around $2k, and bouncing back to our $3k resistance. We should then drop from $3k for the capitulation leg of this market cycle, sometime in December 2019, with a crash down below our downtrend support line, finally bottoming and finding support at the initial uptrend support of the 2015 bull cycle, somewhere between $1000 - $1350. Bitcoin should then move back above the downtrend support, slowly moving back to our $3k resistance around July 2020 shortly after the halving (halving is expected around May 2020 so expecting a gradual rise once we've bottomed, and as we approach that date). We should have range-bound consolidation after capitulation, between April 2020 and March 2021, where I suspect we'll consolidate between $2k and $3k before starting a new bull cycle and a break to the upside above our $3k resistance sometime around March 2021 and onwards to a new ATH for bitcoin around August 2022. Good luck and happy trading! Dow Jones: Bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 S&P500: Bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 Previous chart:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
10
Ethereum November 2018 Comparison Points to Capitulation at $40Hello Crypto Lovers! Please hit Like and Follow us for more updates on this chart. This chart represents a potential bear scenario based on the the 3D Timeframe on Ethereum. It shows the 3D momentum's pending a bear cross similar to November 2018. Clearly, we already broke down as seen on the chart and may start washing down towards the target of the bearish H&S at $62-55 with a wick to $48-40 in a similar manner while moving within the bearish parallel channel for a last 3rd leg down (3 Drive Pattern). As of now, the 1H 2H 3H 4H 6H 12H Bollinger Bands squeeze has spoken and in my opinion should confirm to the downside once news lows are made below $80 should the potential double bottom fail (see our bull chart in Telegram). The bears will seek for a proper capitulation of this market to punish the still hopeful bulls by selling off past the bottom of the green falling wedge and $84-80 support towards the target of the large red H&S we have been following for more than a month now. The target of the Bearish H&S is at $62-55 with a potential capitulation wick to $40-33. These areas would be ideal for a long-term investment in Crypto. I would be preferably investing there if the chance presents itself (same for ALTS). Note: We also have published the bull case on our telegram channel. Join us there to get more detailed updates. ETHUSD Bear Bull Scenarios Chart: ETHUSD Short-term Chart: See our Telegram Channel for the Chart (unable to post external chart links here!)
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by BitcoinGuru
3
Why this is might've been BOTTOM .. (yes, another one)Some points i have NOT yet seen mentioned as to why we might already have bottomed. 1) Every retrace after ATH is less violent than the previous one 2) None other than Leo Melamed from CME Group said “We will regulate, make bitcoin not wild, nor wilder. We’ll tame it into a regular type instrument of trade with rules.” This being said, it's to be expected that this retrace should be even less (which up to now it is). 3) Volume indicates bitcoin already "capitulated". 2014 and 2018 both "panic-sells" saw an average volume of at least 75% of the ATH volume (or up to 100%) 4) We are at shutdown-price (think about this .. would you let something drop under 'manufacturing price' if you could "help" it?) 5) 2014 and 2018 bottom found support on previous resistance (ORANGE) but after breaking previous support (GREEN) in very similar fashion .. there is always a chance of another drop, but that should be very short lived and possibly not even that low (maybe double bottom?)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Je_Buurman
2
The "already bottomed or close to our bottom" argumentGood day Traders As mentioned before, no one truly knows where we will end up bottoming but 99% of traders will probably get rekt trying to find that bottom because it usually doesn't pan out according to market expectations, so better to be open-minded without being too fixated on a set bottom target because maybe that bottom is already in. We have quite a few reasons why bitcoin can and should capitulate below our $3k support, as explained in my previous posts, but would that not maybe be too convenient? When we were still consolidating close to our $6k support, the market sentiment was generally bullish but the market had other plans. Now that we have been consolidating close to our $3k support, the market sentiment has been generally bearish with JP Morgan even throwing out $1200 targets, potentially so that you can sell right into the traps set by these market makers, who probably won't let the next cycle begin before enough people have either shorted to catch the next knife, or thrown in the towel after effective market capitulation. The question is, which of these 2 strategies will be used before reversing the general direction and trend of this market? If market sentiment is generally bearish, I'm inclined to assume that this would be the perfect area of accumulation since there should be a lot of traders waiting for their bottom targets throughout the upcoming months of consolidation, while the market becomes range-bound, giving the market makers ample time to accumulate your btc while you sit all tethered up waiting. Reasons why this might be either close to the bottom or already bottomed: -MFI is now in the oversold territory on the monthly chart for the first time in bitcoin's history - Weekly SMA200 held as support in 2015 - RSI sitting close to the same area of support as is 2015 - ADX and DI narrowing for a range-bound consolidation, similar to in 2015 before the next bull cycle - Bitcoin bottomed at a 121.4 fib extension of the first wave of the downtrend, the same level in 2019 is around $3k - Similar drop from the 2 cycles' ATH - Similar drop from the previous swing high - Major horizontal support around $3k on the weekly chart - Total crypto market cap closing in on $100k which held as very strong resistance in the past, will it hold as major support? - We could have a soft bottoming reversal process compared to the sharp peak reversal seen when we hit the ATH (see inverted chart to illustrate this and how we could be ready for a range-bound market after already having found a bottom) Potential capitulation risks: - ADX and DI show the same levels of strength of trend as they did in December 2014, the month before capitulation, with similar levels for ADX and DI lines. The + and - DI lines are narrrowing before the drop. This is definitely something to keep an eye on. Will there be capitulation within the next 2 months or end of bear market with gradual widening of ADX and DI lines? If the ADX and DI carries on playing out exactly as it did in 2015, then we might have capitulation first before the market goes range-bound - Although RSI is sitting close to the same area of support as in 2015, this level is currently acting as resistance - We have similar trend lines from the 2 ATHs where the price never broke above this major trend line until the next bull market cycle had commenced. This can mean that the next market cycle begins in May 2019 if we break above that area of resistance on the monthly charts, however, it can also mean that we have true capitulation in May 2019 if that trend line proves to be too strong - A close below the weekly SMA200 would be unprecedented and could induce panic Truth is no one knows but the signals will arise closer to crunch time so I'll be updating. Good luck and happy trading! Weekly chart showing SMA200, horizontal support and total crypto market cap: Inverted scale showing a potentially soft bottoming: The bearish knife-catching view:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
25
BTC levels LONG term outlooksCrypto WILL be continuing this bear market until one of these scenarios are realized: Still looking for violent form of capitulation over the next couple of months. The clean air area was never retested on the way up since BTC broke from accumulation into bull market. This makes it a likely area for an ultimate low as it is close to the top of the previous market cycle of 2013-2015. Volume ideally would be comparable to the market cycle top, the bounce reaction would take less then a week to move some 30-40% similar to Feb 5th as an example where it was only at the bottom for 2-4 hours (Not 2-4 days). The other form, would be long slow sideways chop as it got moved down to the 3k area then chopped up to the 4k area and back down over and over again for a few years(2k-3k or 2k-4k hard to give exact ranges). Not many people would be prepared to deal with this type. As capitulation is cause by financial pain for the people whom are reliant on their coins price for living. Market will constantly trap the traders high and low, and the Hodlers will give up. Once the last bull has left, the new cycle begins! Adjusted some levels, added some capitulation wick levels for those whom saw my last post in Jan.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by stasyszy