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Capitulation

Preparing to catch the falling market knife - short-term tradersIn this video we recap the US stock market price action from last week and game plan for the week ahead. We break down the 3 possible scenarios the market may take next week and how to plan/structure trades around them. This video was specifically recorded for short-term tactical traders looking to catch a multi-day bounce, and does not acknowledge/discuss the fact that we are in a longer-term bearish market environment.
SP:SPX
by EvanMedeiros
XRP - Trading Ranges This week XRP has started to lead the way in the altcoin market. We've spend months at 30 cent price area. This is an price area at which XRP price historically spend most of the time, so it presents a good historical support. Just like with my last idea on BCH trading ranges, it goes the same for XRP. We have started to poke through red trading range and are testing next one. FRVP (Fixed Range Volume Profile- blue bars on the left) indicator suggests that we are testing second strongest resistance level range that is from around $0.50 - $0.68 (yellow). I am positive that we will go there, maybe even run through it to the 3rd level and than fall back to the 2nd one to range and slowly move up again with an increasing speed. It is a speculation so it is impossible to really know. I also expect that the level 6 if not before, can turn us back down a bit before continuation upwards. In my eyes we cold still fall from 6th range to the 3rd one that held us for 4 months before the start of last capitulation in April. Given on how delaveraged altcoin market got, coupled with how XRP has moved up in the past after setting a clear bottom, it is also a possibility that we just explode upwards, should the short squeeze happen both with fiat pairs (XRP-USD) and btc pairs (XRP-BTC). I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise.
Long
by AVA37
1
BTC 50% Capitulation SOON?We are looking similarish to the 2018 sideways action for the 100 days before we had a huge dump down of 50% from 6k to 3k. Are we about to repeat it? The big difference is that back then nobody expected a 6k dump. All social media was under the impression that we are about to pump higher. I think a likely scenario is that we get lots of fakeouts. because, pretty much everyone expects lower prices (I think we have set a record on the bear positioning from all the investors including hedge funds etc), so those people need to be punished by breaking down, and then pumping back up a few times to frustrate the itchy hands. What do you think?
FTX:BTCUSDShort
by Anunakii
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
How Low Will it Go?!Look to the 2020 correction zig-zag to form bottoming price structure. Getting crushed to capitulation in October would be the usual outcome. Timeline for the bear likely will be in the 9-11 month range, bottoming on October or early November. Typical bear is nine months, rarely >15. RSI would get crushed well under 20%. Short -term oversold condition could provoke a weak rally; short onto any rally going forward imo. Be ready to enter longs in 4th quarter. Do not get onboard too soon, do not FOMO my friends. There will be plenty of time for longs after. Better to miss the bus than get run over by it, eh?! Be wary when bottomfishing! GLTA!!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
23
BTC Roller Coaster: Fasten a SeatbeltWith the capitulation in may still lingering in the minds of retail and institutional traders alike, we get exposure to market events that speak to the uncertainty that lies in even the most advanced TA. With capitulation, a record number of liquidations roll through the equity value of BTC along with most ALTs. This part of the market cycle is not a hit and run situation either; this is a phase bound to last probably till mid-to late October as we approach the crypto "jackpot" month of November. Ranging markets are inbound but for now, this bearish flag is indicating a push further down into the low 20k's. Stay frosty my friends.
Short
by PapaBear95
Finding Recession BottomsWith so many calling market bottoms already, I want to show you how we are not there yet, with this simple 3 Month (1 Quarter) chart. We can see, via SPX & VIX, for the bottom in last 2 recessions (2020 & 2008), that quarter had: VIX over 40 (not equal to, since Oct 08 quarter was exactly 40 & not yet bottom) capitulation from significant SPX selling Volume (2020 had 182 billion, we need to see at least close to that) So just those 2 things, if you can wait for each Quarter candle to complete, will show when we have recession bottom. In this recession, the VIX has barely woken up in the high 20s, & Volume selling pressure has been lukewarm, due to many investors still holding on to their previously high growth stocks, or buying more thinking those favorite stocks are now on sale & will rise again to their previous speculative highs. We still have more pain to go. The longer we hold on & deny this recession affects us significantly, the longer & more brutal this bear market will be. Invest wisely. Trade swiftly.
SP:SPXShort
by roelds
1
BTC capitulation?, Long19.2k-17.5k for max pain capitulation on this downtrend. good buy zone for spot long-term portfolio ~16k-23.5k taking into account feasible scenarios of could go. Though,16k-17k will put BTC literally down to the wire of max pain, and maybe create a generational bottom. w/ institutions being more public in their interest w/ BTC I suspect more ranging for a long time ~20k-37k. Mean rev. indicators are printing a good bottom so far today, but not yet confirmed w/ BBWP not crossing over its MA. VZO indicator also printing green. I'd only consider BTC to be out of a bear market until it closes over ~38k on a daily candle, so if you want to be giga-safe I'd wait for there. Breaking out of 32k gives some confidence of an uptrend, but thats only if we continue going up from here. Have some self-control and try not to capitulate. Fundamental market risk factors are noted here thanks to WifeyAlpha. Only would add that there are a lot of put options expiring this Fri./June 17th on SPY that could squeeze tradFi for part 2 of a bear market rally, so hedge your open shorts. That and monkeypox, which falls under the currency wars. Trying out 5R trades instead of the safer 2R, I have two of them out JIC the #1 gets stopped out Trades: #1 Entry: 21.6k SL: 18.3K TP: 39k #2 Entry: 17.5k SL:15.2 TP:29k
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
BABA - Adam & Eve reversalWorst looks to be over for BABA after hitting a low on 15 March and then went on to form an Adam and Eve (A&E) reversal pattern. It broke above the A&E neckline 2 days ago. While the breakup volume wasn't impressive, it is however now above the 200 day moving average, which gave it credibility to likely continue in a slow path to recovery. (could chop sideways for a while until the 50 day moving average can cross above the 200 day moving average). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:BABALong
by Juliac
1
Bottom Still Not InOversold it is, higher it must climb, until lower it gets again. Bounce coming- likely. Bull run again- unlikely imo. Every bottom lifts VIX to >40 and true capitulation usually triggers trading halts. Didn't see these yet; not done. Bear markets are not quickie corrections that serve as dips to buy. They grind on for months or years, median 17 months. Don't expect any monster rallies although a summer rally is likely before the real bear growls in September.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
47
SPX may retest 2018Megaphone @3500 or 2009 channel@3kAs I’ve warning several times that the worst is not yet over despite many bear-market rallies, SPX was rejected by the blue dotted midline of the upchannel from 2009 & was unable to fill the downgap near 4k which instantly became a resistance now. BEWARE: lower lows are coming with SPX barely holding a previous low @3820, a FIB 0.382 retracement from pandemic low. The next strong support will be 3500, the FIB 0.50 level, a 27% drop from ATH. 3500 is a confluence of 3 impt FIB levels. Besides the 0.50 that I mentioned, it is also the 1.618 FIB ext of the 3820 abc relief rally & the 0.854 FIB ext of the 4117 Feb 24 invasion low abc relief rally. 3500 is also the projected zone where SPX may retest the green 2018 Megaphone top. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If my green support zone @3400 to 3500 fails, then 3000 to 3200 (yellow zone) will be the maximum pain zone. 3200 is the FIB 0.618 retracement from pandemic low. This yellow zone is also the projected area where SPX may come to retest the red 1995 TL or the blue lower side of 2009 upchannel. This big ABC capitulation phase will end wave IV sometime near 4Q2022 & the last melt-up rally of wave V may end somewhere in the 5100 to 5400 zone near the top of the upchannel around middle of 2023. Not trading advice
TVC:SPXShort
by xtremerider8
3
Hash Ribbons(Miner Capitulation Period) Bitcoin Price and Hash Rate Relationship: The Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator’s core concept is that there is a direct relationship between the hash rate and price. The thought is that the miners will reduce their bitcoin mining efforts when an opportunity to get better results elsewhere occurs, this can happen for two reasons: (1) Bitcoin price has decreased (2) Mining costs (electricity) has increased Looking at all years period for Bitcoin, there seems to be a correlation between when hash-rates are bottoming alongside price to indicate a local or close to local bottom for the bitcoin price. Miner Capitulation: The capitulation of miners can be considered a better bottom indicator than retail traders calling it quits. They tend to be one of the last to throw in the towel, which has to do with that they have mining profits to help offset the costs and loss related to a bitcoin price dump.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Abudzag83
Grim outlook for BTCI really don't think 14k to 12k is out of the question. Looking at horizontal support, silver cross to the down side golden pocket and fixed range from previous macro low and high, you have to at least entertain the idea we could head into these price levels. Hash ribbons giving a capitulation signal. Also happens to be around an 80% retracement, which is inline with previous bear markets. If you ask me, I think it's a great accumulation range I'd love to take long position from .
BNC:BLXShort
by frnk29007
Just buy the dipIncreased BTC dominance by 8% in two days shows me "stable-coins" are on fire. Infact Luna takes the cake. We've been bearish for over three months and have now (as of 11/05/2022 AEST) entered capitulation. The first two capitulations I've lived through ended up making the mistake of selling positions. This time I am not so should you. Is it really true Blackrock have set-up a coalition to attack the Crypto market by? No idea and don't care. What I do though is Bitcoin is well worth buying below 31k. Also any alt's you planed on buying cheap earlier this year you can now buy them 60% cheaper.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jomaha