its starting brace for impact As you can see bitcoin has failed to stay above $10.5k the targets i have shown are where bulls will either defend or get rejected i expect the last target to be where we see a bull market start
Capitulation
#NCC - good one for #retirement planning this has to be one the BEST stock I have charted today, monthly levels at extreme support, you got so little to lose here & plenty to gain, allocate small chunk & forget for few months years to come!!
Hi Ho #SILVER Away - The Lone Ranger has capitulated To be honest I haven't been able to get excited about #SILVER for a long time. It threatened in late 2019 a few times to break up from the bear market only to be slapped back down. This of course is positive long term because the more it attempts the harder it will eventually break. It was only in the middle of March when we got the capitulation bottom that I started to get super bullish. As far as I am concerned this was the signal we have been waiting for and now #SILVER is ready to begin its move.
bitcoin miner capitulationThe analysis is based on the price floor of bitcoin production in China
in these calculations only power consumption is considered to achieve the lowest possible state and we Ignore other expenses such as hardware costs and maintenance , etc...
The purpose is to examine the impact of mining on bitcoin price
Some believe that if the miners leave the network, difficulty will be adjust and the network will return to normal. This is completely wrong
Imagine an example that, like the recent bitcoin drop, price fall below $ 2000 in one day. In this case, the majority of miners turn off their hardwares , hashrate will drop a lot , Because of this, block time goes up dramatically
Network difficulty is adjusted once every 2016 block (2 weeks with 10 min block time ) , So when the block time goes up , We should be involved in tuning the network difficulty for about a month or more , It can be said that the network will be severely disrupted , Whether in terms of transaction fees or in terms of transaction speed and confirmation of transactions
It also makes that The speed of bitcoin delivery to the market Go down sharply , That can be a factor in raising price
So the market always reacts to certain price levels , So miners don't get out of the network quickly
here is top 2019 asics the average electricity price for dry season in china is ~ 5 cent for large farms ( + mw ) :
formula : Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost = electricity cost of creating 1 btc
antminer S17+ 73: ( 3.50 * 833.7 ) = 2917 $
antminerS17+ 67: ( 3.22 * 895.32 ) = 2882 $
antminer T17+ 55TH : ( 3.30 * 1106.52 ) = 3651
innosilicon T3+ pro 67: ( 3.96 * 908.33) = 3596 $
Avalon 1166 68 : ( 3.84 * 894.98) = 3436 $
whatsminer M20S 65: ( 3.74 * 936.28 ) = 3501 $
antminer S9 SE 17TH : ( 1.63 * 3579.91) = 5833 $
2020 upcoming asics :
Antminer S19 Pro 110 Th/s 3250w
Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost
590.87 * 3.90 = 2304 ( china dry season )
Whatsminer M30 88Th/s 3344 w
738.59 * 4.01 = 2961 ( china dry season )
After halving cost will be *2 because number of days to create 1 btc will be double
so i showed how levels will be after halving on the chart , even 2020 asics suggests that price should stay up after halving
You can read more about how the electricity cost is calculated and US cost calculation at google docs link below ,
google docs
i believe that usa is big part of miners , as you know bitmain also launched +50 mw farm in texas
Hash Ribbon Buy just firedHash Ribbon Buy
The Bitcoin Buy signal which occurs about once a year just fired.
Note: The halving is just 2 weeks away. Expect another signal within the next 3 months, like 2012 and 2016.
Historically this means that the next 30 days is a great time to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Performance of Bitcoin 17 days prior to HalvingHash Ribbon Buy signal is occuring.
However, this may be the most high risk signal to date.
Why?
- All halvings have had another capitulation
- Miners are running at break even today
- Global recession = tighter liquidity = credit crunch
In 2020 there is a greater probability of more miners defaulting.
All prior halvings had another capitulation within 3 mths after the halving.
Today we are 17 days from the 2020 Halving.
If you bought 17 days before other halvings, price was very volatile, and your returns up to the next signal were mixed:
- 2012: 90% higher
- 2016: 1% higher
In short - if considering Bitcoin accumulation for long-term positions which will be held for at least 1 year, "dollar cost averaging" (buying in increments over the next 30 days) should be a good strategy, but expect volatility.
BITCOIN 50-65% Capitulation Before or After HalvingB ITCOIN 50-65% Capitulation: Key points in the chart
Moving Avg : 21ema & 100ema
Time frame: 5D Chart
1-2014 65% drop after death cross
2-2018 50% drop after death cross
3-2020 50-65% drop after death cross
4-Target Buy 4000-3000
Bitcoin Double Bottom Support Test Before Or After Halving??Currently the BTC1! futures weekly candle is soon to close, It is important to note that it is currently a holiday weekend.
The 12 EMA is currently below the 100 EMA for the first time since December 2018
Last time this occurred, BTC experienced a 50-60% drop
BTC is currently up 100% from the March 12th capitulation bottom......Will BTC capitulate again to retest this macro support before or possibly after the halving?
only time will tell............
Bulls are being setup for capitulation liquiditySimply put BTC is inside a new capitulation cycle, And The price is in an uptrend, This is the biggest Hidden bearish divergence I have ever seen in the history of bitcoin!!
My targets have been set within the 3k levels once more
Bitcoin's Capitulation Window, a close-up lookIf the fractal of the 2014 bear market is, in fact, repeating and gives us the clues then May 2021 seems to be what is written on the wall for Bitcoin's final capitulation-making-low.
Check out the related idea that is linked to this idea to learn more!
keep calm, hodl
BITCOIN CAPITULATION SIMILARITY | ONE MORE PUSH DOWNBitcoin, during the recent capitulation has shown similarity with the last capitulation from 6000>3200.
2-3 week initial capitulation
Followed by a "bullish" weekly spinning top
Followed by a final push down lower in the following weeks
Last time this occurred, Bitcoin bottomed out and entered the accumulation phase in the following months.
This may mean that a bottom may be in the works and to be expected in the following months.
Back on track! Blood in the Water!!!I was was wrong about running hot yesterday, but Nothing has changed. I believe 3rd circuit breaker shuts us down today!!
Good Luck!!!
252.80
$ in %of price
1% 2.53 250.27
2% 5.06 247.74
3% 7.58 245.22
4% 10.11 242.69
5% 12.64 240.16
6% 15.17 237.63
7% 17.70 235.10
8% 20.22 232.58
9% 22.75 230.05
10% 25.28 227.52
11% 27.81 224.99
12% 30.34 222.46
13% 32.86 219.94
14% 35.39 217.41
15% 37.92 214.88
16% 40.45 212.35
17% 42.98 209.82
18% 45.50 207.30
19% 48.03 204.77
20% 50.56 202.24
21% 53.09 199.71
22% 55.62 197.18
23% 58.14 194.66
24% 60.67 192.13
25% 63.20 189.60
26% 65.73 187.07
27% 68.26 184.54
Capitulation already over? We are already seeing the follow up daily candle to our capitulation candle make massive moves in less than 3 hours times its climbed $1600 at this rate we could see an historic friday the 13th bullish engulfing candle on the daily...there's no guarantee capitulation is truly over but it sure seems like it. as always not financial advice and enter at your own risk I can't wait to see where the current daily candle will close.
Bitcoin's Black Box, the Capitulation WindowThis chart should be self-explanatory, it's also an update to my previous charts but more simplistic.
As covid-19 pandemic is raging over the world speculation on Bitcoin is expected to slow down resulting in heavy sell-offs going into a panic phase that will scare even the strongest holders, which by definition is to be expected of a so-called "capitulation". This happened before it's normal, take this as an opportunity to get in, the Black Box is a buy zone, red line is ur lower support zone! ;)
stay healthy, don't panic
BITCOIN BOUNCE | OVERSOLD, WICK REJECTION, FIB CHANNEL MOVEMENTSI is heavily oversold and due a bounce
Price is wicking off price levels showing signs rejection and reversal
FIB Channel is being respected and is also showing signs of a reversal
Targets follow fib channel, 50% level and top of channel (100% level) or within the bounds
_____________________________________________________________________________
Short Term: Long
Mid Term: Short
Long-Term: Neutral
ETH.USD P-Modeling Pt 103.X The Simplicity of a CajunWelcome Hyperspace Agent,
Below 14$ per ETH before end of April.
Flash crash to penny's?
It's been a long time since a public ETH.USD post. I have 15 private ones, but they will stay private.
April 20th 2020.. Alt Season.
What is above; is below.
Take away the lines. Take away the geometric's. And you are left with A simple box, and a few simple linear.
The Cajun is probably wrong though, as usual.
;)
Just ponder this...
BTC .Dominance goes to 95%+
Simple. Private idea.
A bitcoin story leads into reality.
Goodluck.. Be strong.
Be free.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with me,
Glitch420
Stonks: Where to buyRemember when I said a few months 80% retail traders were short DJI & SPX? Well they kept hodling to their losers, and probably adding to them.
Well... this week shorts have dropped by 30 to 40% and now there are more longs. They held onto losers forever, and then exited the very WEEK the price went down!
Breakeven bagholders. The typical really dumb bad speculating that every article & book on trading talks about, and the majority does "oh noes I don't want to take a loss I rather bagHODL a giant loser for 6 months and risk losing everything for a shot at breaking even", and when it goes their way "quick quick I have to lock profit because this is what you do, when it goes your way, you take profit" (??????).
Going to keep going down as more retail turn long?
If the price would fall as low as described in the following screenshots, I would buy there on the SnP & DJI:
Not if it trends down... If it capitulates very rapidely there.
If we got there by early april as SARS V2 The return of the CORONAVIRUS disappears, now that would be perfect.
Can't tell for other indices, gets too complicated for me.
I'd use a stop of about just 5%, and if it gets hit I would look for another chance to buy.
Goes up from there well I wait for the trend and hold for a while.
I hope we get to see some real panic, some FEAR.
I want to see sweat & fear out there :) Would be perfect.
If CNBC calls for a mega bear market then you know it's time to buy :)
Oh btw, an ABC very extended C would be perfect:
Point of the story is these slow hesitant "disbelief" trends are very weak and drop way faster than it took them to go up.
Always have to be the first to exit. I don't like fighting the drop until 100% retrace.
And the opposite is:
Go up fast go down slow, go up slow go down fast. Always the same story (well not always not what I mean).
The bounce will probably be fast at first, then a disbelief slow trend up.
Like this:
Capitulation Long on All Indices + #OILWe have some major oversold readings yesterday and last night. I am predicting a bounce similar to FEB 2018. We tagged the Year CAM S3 target that I spoke of yesterday, and some other MAJOR targets as well for SPX500 futures.
XRP.BTC P-Modeling Pt 18. The Crippling of TearsWelcome to the future of Technical Analysis .
This is Pt 18. Trial 1 on XRP's Global Ecosystem.
Find the "we are here" bubble.
I am most likely wrong...
I think my timing on this may be slightly off. Meh . Who cares.
but what... if..
good enough for me!
Target bottom Buy .000004
99% capitulation scenario on XRP.
HOWEVER...
On April 20th, 2020. The real fun begins and we won't stop hearing about it. (rolls eyes).
Come for the laughs, stay for the Art.
___________________
Think in Loops.
Think in Strings.
Begin to connect them.
You see weird things...
Oof. Tis so Pretty.. But is it functional?... That is the question of the day.
Bet your ass, I am shorting this again into the ground. Despite my previous failures.
Pt 1. Interesting start..
PT 11. Excellent follow thru.
PT 15. EPIC Fail.
Start here for sequential Model of this idea.
PT 16. Failed - went sideways.
PT. 17. Failed - stayed sideways.
PT 18. Is the same chart as Pt 16 & 17. The only difference is a shift in the fractal to its current location. Nothing else changed.
Failure is a necessary presupposition to success.
Laugh with me into madness.
Now for some deep thinking. Cheers.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
*Disclaimer: If you seizure prone, turn the brightness all the way up for extra eye bleed. This is financial advice.
BTC Dominance Cap. P-Modeling Pt 2. The Holy Grail of CajunWelcome User,
Start Here..
Excellent Time-Series Validations in PT 2. Both active.
Technical Stuffs:
Double Nestled Cup and Handle Formation with Orthogonal Phase States.
Timeframe 2015-2021
Linear Root w/ Wave Satisfies 0-A-B-C -IN-
Linear Root w/ Wave Satisfies C-B-A-0 -OUT-
w/Junction at Dominance Low.
Nestled Cups has Cypher Validation X-A-B-C-D
D- of Cypher Ends Nestled Cup.
End of Nestled Cup results in upward movement as expected with a cup/handle formation.
Root Vector Defined by Yellow Focal
Cup Handle Baseline is 94% Dominance by BTC . Equalization is achieved by Dominance Reset.
Multi-Harmonic Validated Handle
Root Potential Absorption: 98% in BTC MAX. Scam wick central.
Bitcoin to 1000-1500 is achieved with a bitcoin dominance of 94%+ and a total market cap loss of over 150+ billion from current levels.
Current BTC price is $7212.
Alts will see a decrease of 85% on avg .
This is also due to total market cap loss.
Target Market cap is between 20-40 billion.
Current: 189 billion.
BTC dominance increase with Total Market Cap decrease leads to black swan-like event across entire market.
________________________________________________
Trial Two. - Simply shift over Glitch Channel till you find the R000T.
Add some shifted linear's, and voila!
Fail or Success?
Failure is a necessary component of success.
Come for the laughs, stay for the Art.
___________________
Think in Loops.
Think in Strings.
Begin to connect them.
You see weird things...
Oof. Tis so Pretty.. But is it functional?... That is the question of the day.
Bet your ass, I am shorting this again into the ground. Despite my previous failure.
This is a Time-Series Analysis.
Now for some deep thinking. Cheers.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
*Disclaimer: If you seizure prone, turn the brightness all the way up for extra eye bleed. This is financial advice.
Bitcoins next move will be FREIGHTENINGBitcoin has so far failed to break out of this so called "falling wedge" that everyone keeps talking about. Within 2 weeks, I am predicting the price will come down to $5,000. Heres how to trade this to make profit.
Set your buy orders around $5,000. It would be best to cost average them in in that region. Next, set your sell order to the bottom of the previous support, which is around $62xx for a quick 25% profit. It will likely not form a symmetrical triangle like in December 2018 for the simple reason that everyone would be expecting that.
Next, wait for the price to come back to the 200 week average and wait for it to close a candle ABOVE it. If it doesn't hold a weekly candle, don't buy it. If it does, it will likely rally up to the 20 week (yellow) moving average around halving. The insiders will dump on the noobs a third time and sending the miners and the rest of the brainlet bulls down with it. My final target is $1500 by 2020/2021.
Don't trade based on what you want to happen, base your trades on what you see in front of you.
Bitcoin may crash down as low as $1800Comparing our current bear market with our previous bear market I think we may crash lower than most people are expecting. If you draw a fib circle and a trend line from the peak down to where we started to push up before our parabolic run up. You will notice in both 2014 and our current bear market the similarities are uncanny! If this plays out the same we are looking at a possible crash down to $1800 and lower.
To view more of my charts as well as private charts please click on details section of my trading view account.
Few cents about capitulation.Unlike many "professional" traders - I (as an intermediate trader - with strategy and money management system in place) can point out the fact, that capitulation occurs when even HODLERS loose hope. We are in a bear market - we all witness lots of doubt and confusion. If you look at the monthly volume you see we are far from the bottom - a lot of people still hope for a bounce - and here it is (few green candles and nice profits over the course of last few days indeed). However ... look again at such popular wallstreet cheat sheet... if we already did hit a bottom... there will be a retest in coming weeks (just a thought).
Regards!
