Watch out! Iceberg ahead!As we trade at the top of this wedge, volume has been on a decline. Also, bearish divergence on the weekly TF -- not great! And, it would only make sense for us to go down for the E wave before breaking out. This is strictly a technical analysis, so yes, Carnival could definitely pump if they come out with some great news -- doubtful though as cruises keep getting cancelled and delayed.
I am personally picking up $30 puts with a 8/20 expiration. I am certainly not betting heavy on this move as I rarely have luck with puts. (This is not financial advice)
Carnivalshort
Carnival Corp (CCL): Carnival surfs the second wave of COVID-192020 AUG-1: Carnival Corp will resume cruise ship travel with 8 trips planned starting Aug 1st.
Just as most COVID cases have peaked in New York and around the world, CCL is announcing a return to business-as-usual. This announcement was made despite CDC warnings.
A second wave is highly anticipated. The stay-at-home protesters (although a small minority) aren't helping to contain the spread. However, cruise vacations may not a be a priority for the economically troubled middle and lower classes. Difficult to tell how high demand will be. Then again, consumers have been bottled up at home. Enough will book cruises to create positive (short-term) outlook. Unless Carnival enacts social distancing measures that succeed on their ships, I don't see them exceeding 3 trip this year before an outbreak forces them to suspend travel again.
I have no faith in them or the travelers aboard to follow strict guidelines. We can't even do it at home. Imagine a boat full of entitled travelers looking to break from the reality that is COVID.
Thanks for reading my non-technical mumbo jumbo. I read the news and speculate human stupidity and greed. Also, science trumps all.
What do you think of this idea?
References:
COVID has peaked: www.cidrap.umn.edu
Carnival Cruises resumes August 1st: www.cnbc.com