The pair is at historical highs with RSI showing bearish divergence. EUR/NOK is also forming a bearish triangle which will initiate the long term downtrend. EUR area is looking to cut interest rates or prolong the QE program. NOK has (the biggest?) sovereign wealthfund which will prove useful if Norway needs fiscal stimulus. short EUR/NOK also provides a carry....
After clearing the stops of the most vulnerable long traders the paths to the north is cleared.
I am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all...
FX:USDCHF is still on a downtrend so I'm placing a short as it has consolidated nicely since its drop Entry: 0.99653 Stop: 0.99792 Profit: 0.992 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short below multi-year key resistance level on Daily bearish price action. Potential Long-Term carry trade opportunity.
0.7600 area presents a nice opportunity to long the Aussie.
The RBA was relatively neutral on the margin, keeping their inflation targets the same at 1.5-2.5. However, unfortunately for aussie shorts the RBA didnt offer any forward guidence on sentiment towards further easing, or specific reference to the aussie FX level - despite there being a strong bid bias brewing in the aud$ cross post-25bps cut. Also their forecasts...
The ceiling of 100 has been a historically stubborn level. But looking at the same level on a longer horizon also shows the explosion of dollar strength above 100. The market only expects two rate hikes in 2016 despite the Fed dot plot estimating four. The market has not begun to factor in additional moves and other fundamental features that are dollar positive...
With the technical validation of the fundamental environment, it appears the new range for EURUSD is 1.08 to 1.055 The continuous slide of USDJPY without follow-through in the dollar lends itself to the conclusion of winding down long positions in USDJPY lacking the apparent short in dollar alone. The prevailing rhetoric is "safe haven" seeking, that leads to the...