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Carrytrade

EURHUF - strong Hun eco data + carry effectFundamentals - Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March - wage growth steadily above 10% - GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%. Technical - EURHUF short trend - 318 resistance tested, move above rejected -> next support weekly 200 DMA @ 313 Trade plan - EURHUF short opened, carry in favor - Be patient, next rate decision 26th Feb
Short
by RobertSoos
The Ruble Carry TradeThe Russian currency has gained 5.7% against the Dollar thus far this year, following a large depreciation in December, resulting from an anticipation of more Western sanctions. The Ruble regained its strength in January though as the continuation of the US government shutdown and expectations of a global slowdown made the currency look more attractive. Most importantly, expectations of higher growth in the country came true as Russia grew by 2.3% in 2018, compared to forecasts of 1.8% growth. Not least, the 5.5% interest rate differential also assisted in attracting foreign money to gain from the carry trade and thus pull the rate higher. The positive carry trade potential would mean that someone in a short position would be able to earn a 99-pip positive overnight swap rate. Over January 2019, this would have amounted to approximately 2,200 pips, increasing the investor’s profit to 6.1%, in just one month. To put that in perspective, a trader shorting one standard lot of $100,000 would earn $6,100 in January. As with all things in life, things are not as simple as they seem. In this case, the caveat relates to the state of the Russian economy. In particular, the Russian economy appears to be following the rest of the world in a global slowdown, as a Reuters poll of economists suggested a consensus forecast of 1.4% in 2019, compared to 1.7% in 2018. High inflation and lending rates are expected to take their toll on the Russian economy, despite the improvement a value added tax reduction could potentially have. Most importantly, Russian Central Bank’s decision to purchase foreign currency in order to increase its reserves is likely to have a strong effect on the Ruble. Overall, the above suggests that the Ruble has the potential for carry trade gains over the year but also has the potential for a currency depreciation which could eclipse any profits from the interest rate differential. Naturally, the possibility for rate increases in the case that inflation rises more than expected also holds which would also provide a boost to the currency. However, the situation for the Russian economy will, out of all things, highly depend on the price of Oil and this is what potential traders need to focus upon. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Wherever you break, I gotta take short! (BGM: Yesterday once more) This pair is a very good vehicle for carry trade, but in terms of carry trade, of course we still need stop loss and appropriate profit taking. "Every trade should have an entry and an out" If carry trade works, we can earn interest at the same time; if it fails, the interests could recover some of the risk. That's totally different from long Lira without stop loss!! Here we got this inside day and inside week! I would very love to take the breakdown short! Even if it breaks to the upside, I would also pay attention to the 5.44 spot supply zone short. In short, wherever the inside day breaks, only want to take the short!! Let's see how it goes! -- By far my best trade in TradingView is also this pair lol.
Short
by Trader_Joe_Lee
2
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years : UK interest rates = 0,74 Turkey interest rates = 23 If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is : 23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly) Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky. This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Education
by Noldo
EURTRY Carry Trade opportunityThere is a big opportunity to make profits using carry trading strategy. If you open short position on EURTRY and hold it for a year, you will gain 15.9% on swaps.(usd account) Example: short position eurtry. volume 100k - 1 standard lot. 49.67$ will be paid to your account every time you hold your position overnight. (3 times over weekend). In one year you will gain 18130$ on swaps. If you use leverage 1:20. you will gain 218% on your margin (5700$). Problems with trading EURTRY: 1) huge spread between ask and bid price. 2) market condition. there is a big challenge to find selling point now. What is 'Carry Trade' Carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing at a low interest rate and investing in an asset that provides a higher rate of return. A carry trade is typically based on borrowing in a low-interest rate currency and converting the borrowed amount into another currency, with proceeds placed on deposit in the second currency if it offers a higher rate of interest or deploying proceeds into assets – such as stocks, commodities, bonds, or real estate – that are denominated in the second currency. - Investopedia article
by OleksandrSnitko
AUDJPY - Going Contrarian to News & Media?We have been hearing some negative sentiment in the market, about how the next recession is near and coming... The thing here is you need to realize where you are 'hearing' such news from. Ahem... most of the time, likely from the news or media. The question here is are they really that reliable? Well... based on our analysis (not the AUDJPY of course), we are unlikely going to see the next recession in the coming 6 to 12 months. That being said, if the macro analysis tells us that we are unlikely to see a recession so soon, will we then be transiting back into a risk-on environment? If that's the case, then the analysis here on AUDJPY will be good opportunity as a potential carry trade :) Disclaimer - this is not a trade recommendation. Ensure you have proper trading and risk management plan before you execute any trades.
Long
by KarYong
1
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Long
by auroraspot
USDJPY Between 200MAs and a broken channel April 17-21OANDA:USDJPY just had a breakdown not only breaking the weekly 200MA but also the lower support channel but nothing goes in one direction in the markets so I expect a pullback before another move downwards. The price is currently between the daily and weekly 200MA so I expect sideways action with a slight bullish bias in the short term. It will be Daily Fibonacci: OANDA:USDJPY bounced right at the 50% mark at 108.11 so bulls should have a relief bounce for a few days. 4H Timeframe view: Unless news or events comes that will cause the risk off to end or strengthen the dollar I expect consolidation between the daily 200MA support and the broken lower channel that should act as resistance. Its also possible that there might be a spike upwards till the weekly 200MA but I dont expect it to break as there should be a lot of overhead resistance on that area. I still expect OANDA:USDJPY in the long term especially with its correlations have broken their respective supports reinforcing the trend. Nikkei Daily: US 10-Year Daily: Entry: 109.4-110 Stop: 110.6 Profit: 101-103 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
USDJPY Nothing Goes Down Forever April 3-7 Trading PlanOANDA:USDJPY looks like its bouncing back up after a severe downmove forming a nice channel. 4H Timeframe View: It was able to pullback and even retest the 20MA in the 4H timeframe so it will be great if it touches the 50MA(yellow line) and hold above it for a confirmation of the short term uptrend. Long: 111.342 Stop: 111 It might still pullback to test the 50MA on the 4H so its better to be safe to put the stop a few pips just below it Target 1: 112.9 The 20DMA/50DMA even the 4H 200MA are converging on this area so its reasonable that it might have difficulties breaking through this level so I might take partial profits on this area just in case Target 2: 113.8 If it doesn't get rejected on the level with a cluster of MAs then the next logical target will be the upper channel Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Long
by SimpleMillennialAverage
1
WTI Voodoo & the Dollar Carry Trade.My short at Friday's close...my currency wave indicates that oil is over bought. and has been since Christmas. COT reports shows new money (retail), MM, Chinese, etc.. are all long, at +seven to one (7/1), with record net positions. Both the timing and direction of the dxy/oil value wave, confirms this is a carry trade. Cheap money leveraged longs.. with little or no hedges. That side the boat is full... too full for me. The range from spikes to dump tells me oil is only really being supported by the dollar. But there are limits to this action, and ultimately higher dollar hurts wti. Imo, we are at or near that level now. Fundamentals, why mention them.. bottom line, too much oil. Way too much. Lastly, Sine wave shows a target on 3/3/17 of 49.15 And if none of this voodoo helps .. then simply, Short 53.89 with SL of 54.43, and moving Target of 1hr./MA100 or lower. Good Luck.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz
7
USDJPY: Critical level testedUSDJPY has hit the previous monthly uptrend mode, and is currently stuck inside this zone. It would be a colossal feat, for Yen bulls to drive the pair under this key level, so I will watch it with keen eyes during this week. I'll update the post with intraday and daily/weekly charts as needed. It would give us clues about the future of the S&P500 and Nikkei, if we see the smart money players start to accumulate long positions again. After Monday's close, I'll add a 'Brexit key level' to the chart in an update, and will monitor price action closely from here onwards. I labeled a monthly downtrend signal, as per the 'time at mode' method, comprised of 7 months worth, and a price target that was exceeded already. There are 2 bars left for this decline to potentially end, and send USDJPY back up to the highs, unless yen bulls are strong enough to push the pair below support. Keep your eyes wide open, this is a really significant level, and from here we might get a terrific trading opportunity once the direction is clear, wether the downtrend ends or it continues further down to the 2011 lows. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
by IvanLabrie
1