Fall Rally Patterns Setting Up: GMNYSE:GM was driven down way below its fundamentals by panicky retail. It is now back up into its fundamental level, well ahead of the Fall Rally. The fast recovery indicates that the selling was not aligned with fundamentals. Auto sales have an annual cycle with the highest number of sales in the final quarter of each year.
Carsales
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche P911 (still long)Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations
Full year 2023 results:
Revenue: €40.5b (up 7.7% from FY 2022).
Net income: €5.16b (up 4.2% from FY 2022).
Profit margin: 13% (in line with FY 2022).
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates.
Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Auto industry in Germany.
VW BULLISH SENTIMENTVolkswagen plans to focus solely on profitability amid cutthroat competition from the Chinese automakers. Volkswagen said it would not participate in the discount battle like its Chinese competitors. Instead of expanding its market share and sales volume, the German carmaker plans to leverage its strong market position to build a sustainable business.
The company's deliveries for April 2023 jumped 39% year-on-year to 720,200 cars.
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Bank on government mandated climate change transition to EVs Tritium DCFC saw a large increase in valuation after the US president mentioned the company in a press conference.
Market participants clearly acted irrational after the announcemnt as shown in the chart. DCFC reached the $20 range and has since sold off to the $10 range.
This reversion back to an efficient market valuation is a buying opportunity. I believe there will be more announcements in the future that will induce another irrational buying event in combination with efficient market increases in valuation as the take up of EVs increases.
Increasingly governments are being pressured into reducing carbon emissions in the name of climate change. As a result, net zero 2040 targets will make fossil fuel combustion engines a large target for government intervention. DCFC is positioned to capitalise on this transition due to proprietary technology that currently takes approx. 10 minutes to fully charge a car with a range of 350 KM.
This transition will also reduce reliance on the Middle East for energy. So you can see why this transition is a good investment by governments, particularly ones who do not have sovereign oil production capacity.
NOTE: The UK and Europe have enacted significant legislation that forces this transition. For example, new homes in the UK are required to have EV charging ports and petrol car sales will be banned from 2030.
Betting with the government is typically a sure win, particularly when the new technology can disrupt a legacy market with new technology.
Media announcement February 8, 2022 — In an effort to increase sales, localize production and expand electric vehicle (“EV”) charging infrastructure in the United States, Tritium DCFC Limited (“Tritium” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: DCFC), a global leader in direct current (“DC”) fast chargers for EVs, has announced plans for expansion of its American footprint with a new manufacturing facility in Lebanon, Tennessee.
The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (“Bipartisan Infrastructure Law”) is expected to provide $7.5 billion of investment for deploying a network of 500,000 EV chargers along highway corridors in the United States. This network is intended to facilitate long-distance travel, as well as shorter distance travel within communities, to provide convenient charging options and encourage the electrification of transportation across the country.
RMBL Indecisive and Volatile On the daily, RMBL is indecisive which is indicated by the Doji candles. The bears have not been able to push the price down since Aug.21 past support at or around 29.10. With big tech sell off last week, RMBL touched support on Sep. 8, 9, and 11 but the bears could not push it lower. Bollinger bands are wide open indicating volatility in price, so no squeeze there. To enter this trade long, a bullish confirmation candle is needed and currently there is not one. It is currently trading just slightly below the 20 day SMA. Once a confirmation is made and an entry, I would set my stop/loss right below the support level of the hammer candle from Aug. 21, at or around 27.08 in case shiz hits the fan. This stock is trending upwards and the sector is hot right now and Covid has changed consumer behavior so I believe this to be very bullish long term with a $50+ price target by December.
Car Sales - Ascending Triangle - BullishHigh probabilty trade here with 15% + upside. On the technical side the chart is showing a bullish ascending triangle, whilst on the fundamental side management have put in place strategic cost cutting measures. Should be some tailwinds as well once the lockdown eases.