Carvana
Carvana in a DUMP trendCarvana stock looks very bad. It has created already new lows. We expect this trend to continue as Carvana doesn't look good also when it comes to its fundamentals. Carvana shares tank as bankruptcy concerns grow.
Expecting a small bounce towards the resistance, next heavy rejection and the downtrend continuation .
Play a small bounce or short it at the resistance.
Good luck
CARVANA to 0 will be a big indicator! (Bottom)ENG:
- Carvana is a used car dealership that operates like a unicorn. (they don't make money, they operate on loses).
- Sadly, Carvana is NOT a tech company that can generate additional revenues in any other way other than: SELLING CARS.
- Used car sales for the past 2 years went crazy towards the upside, and are now crashing fast.
- Most car loans generated in these last 18 to 24 months are underwater by quite an insane margin.
- The Car Repo Business has acquired long term properties, to not drop all inventory into the market at once, and kinda stabilizing prices.
- High interest rates make it impossible for average people to buy new or old cars at the moment and for the next year or so based on what the Fed says.
THESIS: Carvana shouldn't exist. They took advantage of being funded like a technology company, when their business model never evolved further than any other conventional car sales company.
Carvana is ONE OF MANY companies that shouldn't exists in this market. Until we see these companies go bust and what the consequences to the investment firms that poured money into them are, we can't call it a bottom.
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- Carvana es una concesionaria de autos usados que opera como un unicornio. (no ganan dinero, operan con pérdidas).
- Lamentablemente, Carvana NO es una empresa de tecnología que pueda generar ingresos adicionales de otra forma que no sea: VENDER AUTOS.
- Las ventas de autos usados durante los últimos 2 años se volvieron locas hacia arriba y ahora se están desplomando rápidamente.
- La mayoría de los préstamos para automóviles generados en estos últimos 18 a 24 meses están bajo el agua por un margen bastante gordo.
- El negocio de reposesion de autos, ha adquirido propiedades a largo plazo, para no dejar caer todo el inventario en el mercado a la vez y asi estabilizar un poco los precios.
- Las altas tasas de interés hacen que sea imposible para la gente promedio comprar autos nuevos o viejos en este momento y durante el próximo año, según lo que dice la Reserva Federal.
TESIS: Carvana no debería existir. Aprovecharon que se financiaban como una empresa de tecnología, cuando su modelo de negocio nunca evolucionó más que cualquier otra empresa de venta de automóviles convencional.
Carvana es UNA DE LAS MUCHAS empresas que no deberían existir en este mercado. Hasta que veamos que estas empresas quiebran y cuáles son las consecuencias para las empresas de inversión que invirtieron dinero en ellas, no podemos llamarlo fondo.
Carlotz 72% Move Possible bullish wedge break, confluence with bullish divergence. Smart money flow index changing positive as of 6/17. TP1- $0.87 TP2 - $1.60 TP3 - $3.53 SL - $0.43
Buying Opportunity: Carvana (CVNA)This analysis is fairly straightforward. Carvana (CVNA) is nearly fully retraced. Momentum downward is slowing, multiple indicators are showing a bottoming pattern, and open interest in calls is increasing. Although the price can still fall another 10-20% to the low, it's likely that a bottom is near. This is an obvious choice for long-term investors who want to enter at the bottom to go long. Be aware that this is a monthly chart and reversals can take time. Conservative investors may wish to wait until a bullish monthly or weekly candle forms before entering to go long.
Not financial advice.
VRM 35K calls block expiring soon! Extremely Bullish !!Yesterday i was amazed to see a block of 35K calls worth of $525K on VRM expiring May 20.
And i will explain to you why they might be extremely profitable!
Since its highs, VRM lost 97.76% of its value and it`s not a crypto, by the way, it`s a company that makes billions of dollars.
The calls are related to the first Quarter earnings on May 9, so they expire 11 days after the results.
What should we expect from the earnings?
- revenue growth! last quarter their Ecommerce revenue was $738.7 million, up 159% year over year; gross profit was also up a lot, 64% YoY!
- a strong financing business! On February 01, 2022, Vroom announced the successful completion of its acquisition of United Auto Credit Corporation (UACC), a proven leader in automotive finance for $300 Mil.
Soon after the news above was released, on 2/3/2022, Bank of America set a price target for VRM of $30.00
So how come it is trading at $1.62???
Well, 27.11% of the share float is Shorted!
Big institutional owners like Vanguard, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase have average entries at $40!
And many of them had recently averaged down their investment, like Goldman Sachs which reported on 2/17/2022 an increase of 104.5% in their ownership in VRM, respectively 1,753,977 shares worth $18.93Mil for a total of 1.281% of the company. Their average is now $22.55.
So if they are happy with a 22 average, how come we don`t we buy it at $1.62?
VRM has a Price to book ratio of 0.24 now.
A P/B ratio less than 1 means that the stock is trading at less than its book value, it`s way undervalued!
the Price to Sales ratio is only 0.07! By comparison, its rival, CVNA (Carvana), has a P/S of 1.16.
Based on Q4 Financials, If they liquidated the inventory, cash in on all receivables and pay off the
$600M senior note, each shareholder will receive approximatively $6.5 per share.
If we look at the daily timeframe, VRM formed a falling wedge pattern which is extremely bullish as you know, on an oversold area, 25 on the RSI.
Institutional ownership in VRM is high, 92.19%
52 Week Range 1.58 - 48.80
Market Cap of only $235.47Mil! Can be a buyout at this point!
2021 Revenue: $3.18Bil
All things considered, fundamental and technical analysis, i think that the 35K calls will be in the money, extremely profitable, by the time of expiration.
My short term price target for VRM is $5.5, i think it`s trading so low because it`s heavily shorted by the hedge funds, to have a better average on their entry.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Carvana (NYSE: $CVNA) Starting To Look Interesting! 🚗Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Carvana bouncing from its 200 EMA. As the earnings is approaching. Carvana looking to bounce from its 200 EMA line.
As it makes the move upward, it might potentially create momentum breaking its 21 day EMA (currently at $298) then its 50 day EMA (currently at $310).
First target within next few daily sessions is $300 to $310.
If it breaks above $315, Looking to test its ALL time high in next few months.
RSI is currently over sold. MACD signaling bullish crossover. (OVERALL LOOKING BULLISH IN FUTURE)
AVERAGE ANALYST PRICE TARGET - $401
Has Carvana Run Out of SteamCarvana ( cvna ) has been in a rally since mid-May and recently Carvana beat earnings by over 160%.
Shareholders who have been riding this profitable rally have raked in over 59% in unrealized gains. These same shareholders should now start to wonder if it's time to take some of that profit.
For online used car dealer Carvana, acquiring vehicles is less of a problem, said CEO Ernie Garcia, but the company faces a different kind of supply constraint.
Garcia said, "Over the last several quarters we've actually bought more cars from our customers than we've sold them. But we don't have the capacity today to certify as many of the cars as we could buy and we have more demand than we can handle as well."
The question savvy investors are asking is this. Has business for Carvana reached a ceiling for now, and therefore, has its stock price also reached the same point?
The stock price fell into a range of $328/support and $340/resistance for about two weeks before earnings. Then, after beating earnings, the stock price had a burst of momentum.
Now, the stock price, volume, and RSI have all turned lower while the economy is shifting and FUD enters the market.
So the question to ask must be; has Carvana's stock run out of steam for the next few months?