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A Second Oversold Period Gives 200DMAs A Fresh ChallengeAbove the 40 (October 18, 2018) – A Second Oversold Period Gives 200DMAs A Fresh Challenge October 19, 2018 by Dr. Duru AT40 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 2nd day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 33.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up 6 percentage points) VIX = 20.1 (15% increase) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The 200-day moving averages (DMAs) still feature prominently in the market’s now protracted struggle to slog through oversold trading conditions. Almost like magic, the S&P 500 (SPY) closed the day right on top of its 200DMA after a 1.4% loss. {At the intraday low, the S&P 500 (SPY) almost completed a full reversal of the gains from the day of the oversold breakout. Buyers rallied just enough to close the index right at its 200DMA.} The NASDAQ was not quite as fortunate. Its 2.1% loss on the day pushed it just below its 200DMA. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 2.3% but stayed above its 200DMA support the entire day. {The NASDAQ closed below its 200DMA for the 4th trading day out of the last six.} The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 2.3% but is still holding onto 200DMA support and an abandoned baby bottom.} Sellers added emphasis to the return of bearish sentiment with a return of the volatility index, the VIX, to the “elevated” level of 20.1. The VIX immediately went from looking poised to drop below the 15.35 pivot to looking like it is ready to launch higher than the last high. {The volatility index, the VIX, gained 15% to close right at the 20 level which is considered the start of "elevated" readings.} On the currency side, the Australian dollar (FXY) versus the Japanese yen (JPY) faded from 50DMA resistance but at least it did not make a new low. At the time of writing, AUD/JPY reversed the previous loss and thus printed a potentially bullish sign for Friday’s trading. (For more background on the relationship of AUD/JPY to the S&P 500 see “The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen Are Still Useful S&P 500 Signals“). {AUD/JPY is rallying in a direct reversal of the previous day's negative sentiment. AUD/JPY has yet to break down to a new 2018 low.} AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, dropped to 15.8% for a second day of this latest oversold period. The trading action is starting to look similar to the churn that occurred from April to May of this year as the S&P 500 bounced from and dropped to its 200DMA support while only once closing below that support level. A friend of mine helped me realize the high potential for the market to get stuck in another protracted period of churn until at least the mid-term elections in the U.S. (November 6, 2018). After all, almost a week into earnings season nothing has happened to break the market’s back or to assure buyers to continue a journey out of and away from oversold conditions. I will keep this scenario in mind if the market starts to frustrate both buyers and sellers. When the S&P 500 first hit its 200DMA I bought a fresh tranche of call options. I prepared to buy a lot more if sellers washed out the close. After buyers started taking the indices off their lows, I hit the reset button on my volatility fades with puts expiring in 2 weeks on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY). I also took profits on more hedges. The largest outstanding hedge was a fist full of put options on Caterpillar (CAT). This phase of oversold trading always puts my convictions and analysis to the test. While the stock market struggles to bounce out of oversold conditions, I have a strong temptation to try to time and game the setbacks with bearish positions. The problem is not just in getting caught with too many bearish positions when the market suddenly snaps back from an oversold stretch but also in taking away time from identifying the even more attractive upside opportunities.
SP:SPXLong
by drduru
1
VALEO - Is it the right time to enter ?On January 18, EURONEXT:FR stock price was around 66€, close to its all-time high. 9 months later, Valeo has been almost divided by 2 with the formation of a very specific type of technical price pattern. The "Dead Cat Bounce" As defined by Helen Alpino, the dead cat bounce comes a time in a downtrend when bear traders decide to take profit. Bull traders believe that the downtrend has come to an end and that the bottom has been reached. This is what we have seen from March to May 2018 with a 50% retracement. Technically, we can also clearly identified the Elliot Waves and we can now consider that we are in wave 5 . The fibonacci extension of Wave 1 is around the 2/2,272 which confirm the end of Wave 3. Finally, volumes are in increasing since June 18. From now, several options can appears: 1. Wave 5 finishes the down trend around the support area (tested 2 times as you can see on the chart and we could expect a strong reaction. 2. We consider the Wave 1 to project the Wave 5 end which give us target around 27€ Q3 results (forecasted for end of October), strongly awaited by the market, will definetly give the trend for the next months. My recommandation : Remain attentive to EURONEXT:FR . We arrive on the downtrend end where we could face a strong bull reaction
EURONEXT:FR
by Kevin_Tchoulfyan
CBIS Pulse is faint but pulsing with research quivers...Watch CCI momentum with MACD here. . . future profits and earnings TBD. Await patents and studies. Expect they'll eventually have to sell the farm here to pay for all the cannabis / hemp studies. Ent Value / Mkt Value is 1.02. A new medical advisory board for new medical products. One patent issued 2017 for treatment of neurobahaviors and could lead to positive litigation...TBD. This is a watch and wait scenerio for entry...@pokethebear Studies mainly on Endogenous cannabinnoid family, which are produced in our bodies, vs natural occuring phytocannabinoids from cannabis, or made synthetically. CBIS studies may be specific to proving scientific value as neuromodulators and their absorption/binding to the our bodies fatty lipid areas/tissues and possibly dosage. If there's a pHD in the room to help confirm wording here, but the study and health benefits of CBD, CBDA, CBG, CBGA, THC, THCA, 9-THC, 9-THCA, 8-THC and THCV. Aka proving the science to the F&DA each endocannabinoid does something specific (sleep aid, pain releif, epileptic med., ADHD/ADD med., reduce inflamation, anxiety, psoriasis (skin inflammation), slows bacterial growth, inhibit cancer cells (first study published), stimulate appetite, reduce vomiting/diarrhea, and several other benefits.
CLong
by Pokethebear
Bitcoin Bounce in effect?I see two targets as possible 'relative' highs first target at $6547.00 second target at $6741.00 followed by continuation of trend to the down side --if the maximum bounce is seen if price meets the $6741.00 target --> sell off to sub $6k to somewhere around $5950.00 ---> followed by bounce to $6260.00 range ---> followed by the 5th wave down to range of $5750 this is strictly based on fractal or repeat of a previous price decline from an earlier time frame. this is merely a thought exercise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by astoinis
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 193)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My latest Bitcoin Bubble Analysis led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “Still waiting on a bounce off support before continuing the draw down” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle / 4h bear flag Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,126 - $6,166 | R: $6,200? | $6,380 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back after a slightly lower high. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0349% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.04% | 26 = -8.69% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 =11.36% | 128 = -13.73% Volume: Current selloff is significantly above MA on 4h chart. FIB’s: 1 = $6,039 | 0.886 = $6,300 Candlestick analysis: Prior 3 day candle engulfed the 3 before it. 4h hammer Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp on the 4h TD’ Sequential: 1h is currently on a 9. Daily is on a 4 Visible Range: 2 month lookback has point of control (POC) at $6,400. 3m-1y all have POC between $6,300 - $6,400. Expect that to become strong resistance. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -3.98% | 24h = -3.94% | 1w = -13.76% | 2w = -7.63 | 1m = -7.78% Bollinger Bands: Just about touched the bottom of the daily band on this last selloff. Bouncing from bottom 4h band. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Just broke through another down. Next one = $5,855 | Up = $7,437 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price, no div’s ADX: ADX continues to move up while -DI and +DI continue to diverge, as would be expected. Chaikin Money Flow: Moving down with price, it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.29 | D = 42.89 | Similar to CMF’ it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. Stoch: Weekly getting ready to make bearish crossover. Daily is reaching oversold territory. Summary: When the markets start moving I like to pay close attention to the shorter term MA’s to give me an idea of when to expect consolidation and/or a correction to the upside. In one of my Telegram groups someone pointed out the 20 and 200 MA’s on the 4 hour chart and said to watch for the death cross. I noticed that the price tends to retest the 200 MA before selling off again and think that will be a great area to place some orders to sell The 4h bear flag breaking down on volume tells me that we may not make it back to that area. I always watch for the breakdown of the flag itself as well as horizontal support from the pole, both of with occured. Still having one third of my short position open on ETH makes me feel comfortable either way. If you are not in a position and you didn’t sell the 4h bear flag then it is time to wait. If we get a bounce then you get a high percentage short. If we don’t get a bounce then you need to be okay with missing out on a move. Today is Saturday, go outside and enjoy the beautiful summer weather! Even if you are in a position, set your stop loss and forget about it!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
$CAT Entry position on parabolic uptrend line$CAT a dow stock had a large correction near the parabolic line support, alot of support going back to 2014 at e $118, best entry would be at $129 on the parabolic support line however all the FUD that has come from TRUMP and trade war fake news has already shown its effect and held up well around the $130 support line. Recommended LONG at current price of $135 and dollar cost average in onto the lows of $120, if major support lines get tested and break at $119 sell, good place to place your stop losses. I dont own any $CAT atm but entering position for a LONG TERM hold here at these levels dollar cost averaging down to the $120 supports.
NYSE:CATLong
by JamesCryptoGuru
$CAT Oversold Catching Support$CAT Caterpillar looking oversold on the daily chart - catching support at gapfill around $132.50 today, already bounced nearly $3 intraday. Expecting continuation to at least $140 in the very near term, possibly further. Breaking through the 200d ema will be crucial for additional gains, may see some resistance there. Note this stock has been one of the equities affected by trade war concerns, beware it could make a significant move in either direction with further trade war developments and/or POTUS tweets. Note: Observation/opinion, not investment advice.
NYSE:CATLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
Watch for the live CAT bounceThis is a short term trade. to specify, short term meaning no more than 2 hour trade(Perhaps max) I'm pretty sure we break above the close Tuesdays 152.95. The quicker you are in the morning, the better. Hopefully we get a quick bounce off of 152.70s to launch into 153.50s. And the final reminder, this trade is no longer than 2 hours. At the very least, trail a stop loss just in case it runs beyond 153.70s. Lets see how I do on the CAT call(s)
NYSE:CATLong
by Pippylongstockings
ETC Classic formationDear Cryptotraders, I would like to present You my period in short statement. You may wonder why only short? Kind of phase We need to pass through, slow, less and less volatile to dull everybody so They could develop Their buisness with astonishing comeback as proove of perversities presence in this system. This is my second short setup on ETC/USD pair, I stated under comments that ETC could go 10USD. Of course not so fast! :) There We would miss perfect oppotunities to play on 30-40% long bounces before ! Media are laughing at people that are holding fiat cash. Because companies are afraid people would short 'Em All ! Like some smart fellas in 2008. Enjoy! My previous analysis:
BITFINEX:ETCUSDShort
by pinfkloyd
4
Stock Market’s Stop Signs Fail to Yield to A Busy Earnings WeekLast week was chock full of earnings. There was enough GOOD news to lift the market out of the doldrums, but profit-takers were instead the most active. Some individual stocks perform fantastically and will be the ones to watch going forward. They may leave the rest of the market behind as the major indices get weighed down by some big under-performers. The Market’s Stop Signs Fail to Yield to A Busy Earnings Week drduru.com $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $XRT #VIX #T2108 #AT40 $AAPL $AMZN $AZO $BA $BBY $CAT $CMG $FB $FSLR $INTC $MMM $MSFT $ORLY $GLD $SLV $DXY $USD $AUDJPY #forex
SP:SPXShort
by drduru
3k bears still not dead?So, we did end the c wave at 1.23x wave a But, we didn't end the correction on any fib level which seems to suggest that the correction might not be over. Although we are bullish for now (till 16k area i expect), but we the bears may return. Some signs to watch out for: strong reversal after a 3rd wave up (c wave), we are currently in the first wave hidden bearish divergence on high TFs, probably on daily as we reach this point of reversal. Be careful :) #3kbearsclub
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by RyanPal