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Caterpillar

Bears To Feast On CaterpillarOn April 13, 2017, Caterpillar ( CAT ) crossed below its 50 and 100 day moving averages (DMA). Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 DMA 444 times, the 100 DMA 348 times and both have occurred on the same day 72 times. For all of these instances, the stock does not always drop over the following 11 trading days. The 50 DMA cross has a median loss of 3.627% and a maximum loss of 33.865% while the 100 DMA cross has a median loss of 2.829% and a maximum loss of 21.035%. When both crosses occur on the same day, the median loss is 2.528% and maximum loss is 19.584%. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.6290. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral, but has been heading down. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.9828. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9853 while the negative is at 0.8779. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is drifting down with both indicators remaining below 1. The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.0377 and D value is 77.5211. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is exiting overbought territory. This indicates the stock will begin to fall soon. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 2.25% over the next 11 trading days. The most recent same day crosses outside of the current trend channel were in November 2013, September 2013, October 2013, December 2013, and September 2014. The respective losses were 2.526%, 2.530%, 0.624%, 0.823%, and 6.123%. FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Another consideration with CAT earnings approaching is our current economic state. After the election, CAT surged on hope of construction jobs in the near-term due to projected presidential policies. The construction and policies are yet to fully take shape and the price of the stock could not only appear too high, but not much has changed regarding the earnings of the company. With the stock being propped up with nothing to justify it, earnings day could be a major wakeup call for investors which could easily be the catalyst for this stock to drop to 91 or even sub-90.
NYSE:CATShort
by StockSignaler
Caterpillar technicals point to downside riskCAT reached new annual highs last week but failed to break above an important technical level at $83.90 (50% Fib level in chart). A negative divergence has taken shape in the daily RSI as prices retreat from a trend line resistance tested on 17 August. So long as prices remain below $85.30 (current projected trend line level), we may see CAT correct down towards $80.90 by next week. $77.40/$78.00 is also a possible target if such a correction takes place next month.
NYSE:CATShort
by ABRAK75
Harmonic analysis - Caterpillar probably on its way to 55$I always find it amazing how the media starts talking about crisis when it almost over. Although $CAT is still far from the important buy zone I'll mentioned below, $CAT had to lose almost half of its value for this guy to start paying attention: www.cnbc.com (Jim Cramer realizing the $CAT is in trouble). In fact, the bearish opportunity on $CAT was about a year ago as $CAT created weekly triple top with bearish harmonics - on Sep 20th (2014!) I posted a bearish setup for $CAT with the bearish weekly Bat that completed near 112$ (see the setup posted a year ago - goo.gl) The final target zone of this bearish setup was the strong structure zone near 80$ - 30$ decline from its peak. When $CAT broke below 75$, the bottom of the weekly structure zone, it actually created a very strong bearish signal that suggests that $CAT will not create higher highs any time soon. 80$ Became a major resistance zone right now (weekly zone) that should prevent $CAT from any longer term rally attempt. Still, recommending to sell $CAT now, is irresponsible (Yes Mr. Cramer). $CAT reached a weekly support zone (64-65$) that can create short term pullback, perhaps towards the 80$ zone. Buying $CAT right now is too risky, and If' I'd planned to buy it here, I'd wait for at least some sort of daily reversal pattern or at least a weekly Pinbar pattern. The better opportunity will be if (and I believe ..when) $CAT will decline towards the 55$ zone. The 55$ is a strong weekly structure zone (support) and the completion zone of a bullish Butterfly pattern. 55$ should definitely be marked as potential Buy Zone for those who seek to buy $CAT stock (obviously you need to look for smaller time frames and seek for confirmation signals before jumping in front of this speeding bearish train). So 65$ and 55$ are two potential buy zones (with clear advantage to 55$). Both of these buy zones have the same target zone - 75-80$. 80$ will a major sell zone to monitor over the next weeks/months. If $CAT will rally (Year End Rally), 80$ will be the zone to monitor for possible selling opportunities....but, pay attention also to 88$. A weekly False Break to 88$ isn't something I'd rule out (not likely at this stage but put it in mind). One last thing.. If, the highly unlikely scenario that $CAT will break below 50$ will occur, there's also a bullish Bat completing near 30$ (32$). It really looks highly unlikely but.. hey.. no one thought that $CAT will lose almost half of its value in about a year If you like this analysis, please press the like and follow. You can visit and follow my blog for more analysis and trading ideas (for stocks and Forex) - goo.gl Subscribe to the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters - goo.gl
NYSE:CAT
by themarketzone
1
CAT classical "h-pattern"This construction mashinery company entered into strong uptrend since December 2013 after it broke up major consoldation resistance in the mid $80ish area. Now stock with the whole sector ($MTW, $TEX, $DD, $JOY) showing relative weaknes vs broad market. I use my 8 and 21 EMA to measure short term sentiment ant to make adjustments if i am positioned. It dropped its 8/21 EMA on 20th of May first time since mid March. And settling for a nice h-set-up which is classical pattern in technical analysis. Break down below $100.72 may attract more active, swing traders and I expect to see some follow through. Stop above previous swing high at $104.50 makes this trade attractive from R/R point of view. Target is $95 previous base support level, 200 EMA. All traders should manage this trade depend on their time-frame and strategy.
NYSE:CATShort
by andrew.berg