ALB - Dip formation might be in play Lithium prices fell more than 85% from their 2022 peak back to 2021 levels. There are still concerns about supply / demand issues. Slowing signals from EV sales might have worsened the outlook. But In 2025, the global demand for lithium is expected to surpass 1.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a growth of 53 percent in comparison to 2023. And by 2030 3.1 million metric tons. (Statista)
Recently low prices pressured margins and Chinese CATL announced production cut equivalent to 8% of Chinese production. This might be a signal that we are close to low of business cycle.
Albemarle's name also recently came up in news with Rio Tinto's plans of acquiring a major lithium producer.
CATL
NLC.V High Flag Volume Contraction into CatalystsNLC has been digesting its big move up over the past couple weeks. It is setting up beautifully in a flag with noted volume contracting and price tightening up. We are in what should be a busy month + for NLC with DFS due out within the next couple weeks + a US senior exchange uplisting. Keep an eye out for CATL, (I cant post a link in the text as im not on a pro sub) but they raised 9 billion through a share offering to finance a range of projects. One of which is likely Neo Lithiums 3Q project.
NLC leadership did a heck of a job raising capital last January over $3 CDN. They will likely be able to get another great deal in this price range as well. Likely something at the market funded by CATL + the uplisting + the brine mine starting up production near year end gives NLC some juice to move up over $5 CDN and more throughout the end of the year.
LAC.TO has been running lately, I find tracking a couple lithium miners helps give perspective to the market. NLC momentum built through august was pretty much handed off to LAC through sept. Of course the two aren't that connected but there are traders in every market, If lithium stocks hold and LAC hit selling pressure traders may come back to NLC and bid up the stock further on news.
Just some thoughts to consider, always do your own DD and follow your own trading rules. I own shares in NLC.V
Cheers,
Luke