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Caution

SPX: Flashing cautionary signals (again).My cautious call of 2 weeks ago may have been premature (see link below). However, we are now seeing additional cautionary signals on the SPX : 1. Two consecutive down days at the beginning of this week; 2. Visible break yesterday on the index (gap down); 3. Reasonable volume on the downside; 4. Traded and closed below SMA10; 5. Tech indicators turning (MACD, RSI, Stock); 6. RSI coming from very overbought levels >85; 7. Treasury yields picking up; 8. Some divergence/topping signs from tech market leaders; 9. High-volume surge in the VIX (please see chart below); 10. VIX broke/closed above two resistance levels in a day. Current earnings should bring further steam to this market, either for a highly-expected consolidation or for a rebound. In this context, am warming up to buying downside exposure in one -or multiple- of the following ways: 1. Reducing portfolio risk by taking selective profits/losses; 2. Buying puts on selected stocks ahead of earnings; 3. Shorting the market outright (SPY, QQQ); 4. Buying volatility outright (VXX). The rest of this week should be interesting and followed closely.
SP:SPXShort
by HAL9000
BTCUSD correction, advice.Hello guys. Sorry for some wrong details, but i hope my updates saved situation. My forecast is on the picture. And i want to say something. My last chart was influenced by the masses and authoritative, more experienced traders. Although, the situation was 50|50 for any movement, all the data i got was telling me the bears are a bit stronger. Than i heared about the thoughts of the people, i named above, and i became uncertain about my own skill, like:" im doing it only for half a year. Compared to them, i might be so bad. Also, they had so much trading practice unlike me. How can i be right?" I dont no why i was thinking so. Maybe i got upset because of some events, happening in my life for some time. But after that, i firmly decided that i will never lose the confidence about my decisions, especially when i spent so much time and energy on something. So, always believe in yourself. If you really made a hard work, you definetly can be right, even if you`re against the recognized and succsessful trader. And it`s not only about trading. It`s about everything in life. Dont be afraid of making mistakes. Every your own mistake gives you the most valuable experience. P.s constant monitoring and harsh risk management can save or even increase your funds in the uncertain market condition. Happy holidays! If my charts helped you somehow, you can help me with donation. I`m saving up 0.02 btc to start trading and the part of it i`ll use to get the tradingview pro pack. Any satoshi from you is precious for me. It will be like a real new year gift to start trading with your help in the 2018! Watch status to make it. Thank you for attention! Watch for updates
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanGuskov
2
NXT - Caution!! will drop a lot soonSo NXT got pumped a lot because of the IGNIS airdrop which will occur on the 28th of this month. I'm expecting people to sell the news and get out on the 27th and others will sell out once they get the free IGNIS coin, causing the price to drop to support levels. The coin might get over sold, hence dropping to lower support levels than I indicated in the graph. This isn't a buy or a sell signal. This is a caution just so you aware of the situation.
by DCFreak
71
DASHUSD New Buy Points with caution and stopsDASHUSD Consolidating recent gains in a pennant: not as trustworthy as a flag, though. The recent low was 609, exactly double the price we paid at 305 some 15 days or so ago. Are you watching, Bitcoin? Two strikes on the lower line shows 'hot', still. Now it has to find enough buyers to beat the upper line of the pennant... If it can mange this we can follow/add but because it's a pennant am wondering how good the break will be if we see it now. Folow the break but stick a stop under 624 in case it fails...want to see a couple of big green candles emerge on exit, therwise beware the break..(look at ETHUSD failed break last time to study a failure...if you can learn to spot thse in real time your whole outlook and trading record will improve...not easy sometimes, buy others, it is!) Be lucky. And alert.
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by sumastardon
BTCUSD wait and shortHello. Reached 5200. Ofcourse i can draw resistance like one the screen below, but i dont think that this could be predicted. Volume falling, divergence forming, good possibility to correct, my periodic theory says the same. However, chart should be drawn a bit more to finish this figures, 2h frame tells about this too . So according to channel it`s possible to get to 5300+ in process, following the resistance. Then i`ll wait good correction in direction of 3500 . This conclusion was made without considering the fork. TA sign are strong. My observations says that for a long time chart goes under TA control. In addition i want to say, that this situation makes me think, that TA is absolute. Yesterday i was talking about psychological barrier, and it was broken like a glass. Some says that FA works good, but all previous movements were done according to TA. Let`s wait till the fork. Im really interested in the result of this competition between TA and other methods of analysis. Profit for everyone:))
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanGuskov
4
BTCUSD outcome modelsGood day time! Simple doesnt mean bad, yep?:) I was partly right about trading near 4700. Check it in previous idea. I see the following outcomes: three lines from the existing chart displays possible movement from now. Considering the consolidation of 4700 i believe we will bounce to one of this prices with the next reasons: 1. 4900-4940 because this is the tipical model for the signle wave for the last time. 2. 5000 because it`s the previous ATH and the psychological barrier 3. 5100 - price that touches the local resistance. And i think that some people want to refresh the previous ATH. However, we should take into consideration, that we could broke 5k last time, and that`s why we will not go any higher because we consolidated that level both technicaly and psychologically. One more important detail is the bitcoin gold. Till the end of the october people want to hold btc to get free btc gold, and i cant say how it can influence on the market. Logically, we should stay in tight zone between 4900-5100 for example and then have a dump. Some confusing moments: last volume size was enormous, however, on the 1d time frame volume is falling. Why it bothers me? because on 2-4 h timeframe volume indexes showing his ability to pull up, and after that prices continued to grow. These are the possible targets for the near future, and considering all the facts the conclusion is: I dont see any possibility to grow further, 5100 is maximum and i believe that will be good correction and flat till the end of the year. In favor of this point of view talks TA and my own periodic theory (you can check it on my page, oct 2 idea). One more outcome: reach the local support, recharge and make one more wave up to one of the prices above, strong divergence will be formed till that time, this process will be ended to the time of the fork and then we`ll see dump. Strategy: If we go up, i`d prefer to wait untill 5k, and then, depending on the volume, impulse and indicators indexes make the decision. Thank you for attention! Tommorow will be the educational post. Good mood for everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanGuskov
2
GBPMXN Weekly and Daily - important levelsPrice on GBPMXN is at a possible band of horizontal support. But at least it is an important structure level. Price has also broken the 200 EMA on the weekly chart. However, it has recovered in the in recent months from such a level. Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation or encouragement to take a position, or invest any money. GBPMXN makes both millionaires (the minority) and paupers (the majority) of traders. No liability accepted for any losses suffered. Paper trading accounts are recommended for those who wish to experiment.
by Captain_Walker
US2000: Tremendous 15 Consecutive Day Rally I have not been able to find any conclusive data regarding whether or not this rally has been all time record for the Russell 2000 Index. Investor confidence has soared to all time highs via 3 week rally. Although I am glad to see this rise occur, I do not seem to understand the logical or fundamental justification for it. How much longer can the Stock Market ignore the carnage in the Bond Market? Because interest rates have been so low for so long, I believe that an increase in rates at this time, a time when the market has been relatively stagnant for over a couple years, will have a strong deflationary effect on the Stock Market. This December, when the Federal Reserve Hikes interest rates, we will see whether this rally has been a genuine reflection of the supposed US recovery, or if it has simply been an impulsive pump after the election of Donald Trump. Please do not hesitate to leave your thoughts.
OANDA:US2000USD
by IceTrading
2
BTC fib projection Overall I dislike the sentiment in BTC. Still to many people bullish and willing to buy a dip. I was previously looking at the 580-600 area to buy. But I don't like the way price is reacting so far. I heard a lot of people saying; everybody is looking to buy 590, so we might not get there. Well if everybody buys 590, but price gets pushed lower aggressively, people will be scrambling to cover their longs. Creating the perfect opportunity to go long for the big players. So far I'm not taking a position and keeping this idea in the back of my mind.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Spablauw
1
Daybreak for the Pound/New Zealand?Good morning GBP/NZD, time to rise and shine :) My case for a strong bullish reversal on this Extremely Valuable Pair {EVP} is due to the fact that: (1) It has completed a multi-month Harmonic Wave Formation and (2) the GBP/NZD is positively correlated with FX:AUDNZD and that pair is trending very aggressively into a multi-year bullish uptrend due to both Australian Dollar strength and a weakening New Zealand Dollar. Time to get those Buy entries in ladies and gentlemen because the Bulls are out to play! I have no clue what the impact of a "Brexit" might do to the Pound but for now I'm surely long above 2.1170 due to NZD weakness. Around May 02, 2016 we should have a clearer picture whether price will push higher or continue in a downtrend. Remember the "Brexit" decision is on June 23rd so until then we trade what we see on the chart. Around June 27th another harmonic time interval occurs so we shall see what happens.
Long
by FractalEyeZ
Inconclusive breakout for the SPX500Weekly: the down-trend is still rock solid. We are within the support area of 1840-1850. Some price volatility is to be expected here. Daily: the market covered a lot of territory yesterday (around 80 points), but ended with a big shadow in our support area, similar to previous attempts at testing these levels. Also worth mentioning that big volumes were traded on the retracement. Up until now the market has also managed to hold below the 8-Day Moving Average. A break and close above this 8 SMA (now at 1888) would mean the market is attempting a retracement. I will discuss shorting opportunities if this scenario is validated. Short-term frames: What I find most striking at yesterday's price movement is that when the market fell below the 1840 support level, it did so with decreasing volumes. I believe this triggered the bounce back in prices in the second part of the trading day. As the market got tired right when it was supposed to get momentum, I believe there were quite a few traders that reduced their positions, triggering even more to do so on the bounce back up. Hence the increase in volumes. All in all, be aware of how the market reacted in this area and trade accordingly. Today should give us a clue about what to expect next. A continuation of the trend below 1840, or an attempt at a retracement. Feel free to drop any comments below.
FX:SPX500
by SpeakTrading
Bitcoin bearish EW count to watch out for before jumping all inThe price rise since mid-September certainly looks bullish with an impulsive 5 wave structure. Volume rose and MACD, RSI & Stoch all trended upwards, even into overbought on a daily chart. I see potential for this to be a blow out from a large wave (B) expanding triangle considering it took a parabolic structure in a short amount of time. The big wicks on the daily candles are suggestive of a corrective turn. (If price continues to fall from this week's high, we could see a shooting star on the weekly candle.) Re-evaluating the wave structure the January 14, 2015 low could mark just the first major down leg from the bubble burst nearly two years ago. The sideways correction from the 152.40 low could be a corrective wave ((B)) with 3 wave zigzag (A), expanding triangle (B), and then an impulsive 5 wave (C). It's difficult to remain patient when prices rise like this which creates lots of excitement and generates attention. I believe this is an important time to remain disciplined and plan your entries on pull backs. The best buying opportunity may still be coming...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kappy
17