BTCUSD - Mercury Rising, path to continued highs? To those that asked me yesterday, I indicated that if we cross $11,900 (GDAX prices), that would trigger a short-term buy signal from which we could get a range projection target of at least 800 points. As I write this, we are seeing a gain of 1000 points, give or take, and now the question turns to: "how much higher can we go?".
BTC' has ignored the overbought signals across many time frames, defied the critics, and continues to barrel forward. However, as we all know, what goes up most certainly come back down. Now, no one can say with certainty that they know exactly when this could happen. These are uncharted territories and we could even push forward to 18k before any serious correction. With that said, I must caution you, my PERSONAL opinion is that the higher BTC' goes before Dec 18-31, and the faster it does so, the more likely that BTC' will be heavily shorted afterwards.
I too, stand very curious to see how the interaction of the BTC' futures markets will play out across the cryptosphere. CBOE' launches BTC' futures trading this Sunday December 10th, CME group will launch BTC' futures on Sunday December 17th (effective trade date December 18th), and BitMex is launching a very interesting product as well. For those that may not be too familiar with the concepts of high level finance, futures and swaps bring an interesting perspective to the mix, especially in this market environment. Many in the industry, with far more experience than myself, have actually mentioned the built in inconvenience to short these crypto markets, at the present moment, that the FUTURES markets will address. This will be an interesting couple of weeks ahead to say the least.
From the technical perspective, we seem to have paper thin support around the 12k mark, more support can be found at 11050, but that is not as dense as the perma bulls would like to believe. A break below that and we can head much lower. As far as the upside, I would like to see a clean break of the 13100-13300 level, with force, before calling for a short-term buy signal which takes us to 14k' or slightly above. Last but not least, normally don't do this, but I charted with the 50/200 EMAs given that I have noted that the 50 day moving average is acting as solid support if price action regresses towards that average. I have highlighted these points for reference and a potential zone where this may in fact be tested again.
The crypto markets are not like any other market we have traded in before, it is imperative that one be reactive, dynamic, and follow the clues that the market tells us, current risk levels are at an all time high, and rising. Some words to always remember: "No one has ever lost any money taking profit!" / "Take and lock in profit when you can, not when you have to!".
References:
1. CBOE' Futures details: cfe.cboe.com
2. CME Futures details: www.cmegroup.com
3. BitMex Swap details: www.bitmex.com
Comments and questions welcome below.
