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CBoT beanoil weeklyThe weekly continuation char shows an ascending price channel of which the lower boundary started at around 25.00/26.00 during August/September 2015 and offered support to price during July/August 2016 at around the 30.00 level as well as during the past 2 weeks at around the 32.50 level. Price has been bouncing up from this supportive trend line which we expected it to now again. Quite significant is the fact that last week’s candle is a so-called ‘Double Key Reversal’ which means that price made a lower low than the preceding week but closed higher than the 2 preceding weeks. A ‘Double Key Reversal’ is a very reliable and strong bode that price will make an immediate reversal which, in this case, is to the upside. Unless proven the contrary, there is no reason to doubt that price is on the way up from here with, roughly, the 40.00 level as price target. Price could, however, make a minor pull-back first during the coming week which is shown in the daily chart.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Remko
CBoT wheat dailyThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price has been under control of a long term descending resistance trend line that started during the 2nd half of July 2016 which was broken by price to the upside on January 5. From there on price traded an ascending channel which has its origin at the 406 level on December 23 and offered support to price on January 30 and on February 7. Price has now again arrived at same supportive ascending line which should offer immediate support from Monday’s session onward. The ascending line starts at 445 on Monday and ends at 450 by the end of the week. We will allow price to pierce through same support but we do not want to see price trading below 427 in which case we will have to reconsider our bias.
CBOT:ZWK2017Long
by Remko
CBoT corn dailyThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price has been under influence of a solid horizontal resistance line at around the 375 level since October 2016. Price managed to break same resistance on February 7 from where price traded up to 385 until price made a reverse and started trading down towards same 375 level which now serves as support. During the last 2 sessions of last week price actually pierced through same supportive value. However, the green triangle that has been put into chart represents a strong supportive zone which comes from the horizontal trend line at around the 375 level and the ascending trend line which represents the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. Friday’s candle in the shape of a so-called ‘Hammer’ suggests that the end of the decline of the past 6 sessions is now imminent and that price will find a bottom here. We will allow price one or two more down sessions towards the 363 level before we will consider an alternative short term outlook for this price.
CBOT:ZCK2017Long
by Remko
CBoT corn weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows a very solid bottom at around 320 and an equally very solid top at around 440. Price has been trading sideways between these values since June 2014 and these values are relevant for us to keep in our minds. From August 2016 on price gradually moved higher from its solid long term supportive level, gradually making higher highs and higher lows. Within the 320/440 trading range there is a trending ascending channel that starts in August 2016 at 320 and gradually moves up. The ascending resistance of this trending price channel is at around 395 for the coming week and its ascending support is at 360 for the coming week. These supportive and resistance lines are to be kept in mind when looking at the price for the medium/long term. Until proven the contrary we have to assume that price will continue developing within this ascending price channel. Price could well make one more move down for the week to come but we keep our target at the upper boundaries of the ascending channel.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Remko
CBoT CornCorn: Price recently made some 'trap moves' which made us decide to step away from the market fro some time and let it play out. In meantime we see a clearer pattern being developed again which has resulted in a bull-flag-pattern. Same bull flag pattern has now the potential the unfold its last leg with the 375 level as first target by the end of December where price will meet resistance from the upper boundary of its current ascending price channel. The EW count suggests that pice has began its 3 of 3 wave which should give price support to trade substantia higher levels by the end of January or, possibly, mid February with 440 as second target.
CBOT:ZCH2017Long
by Remko
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CBoT Beanoil almost ready for a long play Beanoil: Like the rest of the soy complex, the beanoil price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. During the past week price developed and ascending wedge towards the higher end of the price channel from where, as per the TA rules of thumb, price broke out to the downside. We expect price to continue its corrective move down from here towards the 36.50/36.00 zone where price is expected to find a solid base for a substantial move up to reach the 40.00 level at around mid January. From there, after a minor corrective move down again, price can then trade further up to the 44.00 level before the start of spring. A break down through the 34.00 level would negate our long term bull scenario.
CBOT:ZLH2017
by Remko
1
CBoT SoyamealSoyameal: Price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows that look quite similar to the soybean picture. Like in the soybean chart, the EW current EW count suggests that price is in the start of its 3 of 3 wave which should lead the price to substantial higher levels from here which could easily add 30% to today's value before the spring starts. Price is likely to continue trading up from here but could, under lead of the soybean price make on more dip as well. We keep 309/308 as the point where we will reconsider our bull scenario. We consider the 350 level as our first target during the first half of January after which price can make a corrective move down before it continues trading up.
CBOT:ZMH2017Long
by Remko
CBoT SoybeansSoybeans: Price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. The latest EW count suggests that price is initiating a 3 of 3 wave which should make price a considerable move to the upside from here. Ideally, price would correct one more time to the lower and supportive line of the ascending price during next week where price should then find support at the 1020/1010  zone after which is can trade up with the 1100 mark as first target during the first half of January. The 1100 region will offer price some resistance and will probably cause a minot corrective move to the downside after which price can continue its move up towards substantial higher levels. If and when price would go down to the 985 level we will have to reconsider our bull scenario 
CBOT:ZSH2017Long
by Remko
CBoT soyameal still a short but no margin at the upside Soyameal: Further sideways move during the week with only exception during Thursday's session when price spiked up and actually penetrated the most recent high at 310.90 which was not what we were looking for. The pull back that followed indicated that is could have been a bull-trap but it could also be that we have to reconsider our bear scenario. A close above the 312 during one of the sessions during the coming week will hit our stop level and will probably be the bode that price wants to trade up to 325/330 from here. For now our bear bias remains unchanged but there is no more margin to the upside.
CBOT:ZMZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT soybeans still a sort playSoybeans: Volumes for the X16 contract are still almost twice as high as volumes for the F17 contract but open interest went already higher for the F17 during the past week. We will roll over soon as well but still kept the X16 for this week. Price made a 2% advance during the week which is not the end of the world but it did break our first resistance at 975 which is not what we were looking for. The most essential resistance at 994, however, remained intact and as long as that pivotal resistance has not been broken we keep our bear bias unchanged. The most significant thing that we can see on this chart is that price has not been making any ardent moves during the past 6 to 7 weeks. After it impulsive decline from 1020 to 938 during the last week of August price has been bouncing between the 935/940 level on the downside and the, roughly, 990 zone on the upside without making any decisive moves. This, together with our pivotal resistance at 994 still being intact and the current operative EW count, is a very strong reason for us to keep our bear bias still in force. Nothing much has changed for our outlook in the chart except that we have moved on our price target in time a bit. The pressure in the market is building up which means that we should expect a violent move on very short notice. Our preference is that same impulsive move will be to the downside with a potential of 10% decline from here. However, price is so close to the pivotal resistance that there is an increasing chance that the move will be up and that we will have to call for a long term tradable bottom in this market as well. So caution is to be added to caution and stops are to be tightened.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT corn continued long play Corn: Price mostly moved sideways during the past week but held well. The weekly candle (not attached/displayed) shows an almost perfect 'doji' which principally expresses doubt but we have no reason to believe that price will not continue its rally up and we keep our bull bias unchanged. Our pivotal supportive level remains unchanged at 336 for now. The upper ascending line that starts at just below 364 on Monday and ends at 366 on Friday is expected to be broken during the coming week which will be the last confirmation that we need for our bull case scenario and after which we expect price to accelerate to the upside. Our bottom line bias is up from here with essential support at 336.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT wheat continuous long playWheat: Price made an almost 2% corrective move down during the past week after its strong 5% swing up of the week before that. We have put a first supportive level at 413 in the chart which was tested twice during the past week and which we would not like to see broken on basis of EOD. We should, however, not be stunned if same support will be penetrated during Monday's and/or Tuesday's trading sessions and even a close below same supportive level will not change our bull scenario as long as our pivotal support at 395 remains unbroken. The upper ascending trend line has been broken to the upside and is now being tested back as support which we expect to hold with, as mentioned before, a possible penetration during one of the sessions early in the week. Our bottom line outlook is to the upside with significantly higher prices ahead.
CBOT:ZWZ2016Long
by Remko
1
CBoT beanoil no positionBeanoil: Price made a strong 3% move up during the Monday session after which it has been developing a pennant which is a continuation pattern. The pattern seemed to fail during last Friday's session when price made a move to the downside but still closed within the boundaries of the pennant pattern. We expect price to continue going up from here on very short term to reach 3700/3750 after which we expect price to reverse and resume its long term down trend. Not a market to be long and not a market to be short but a perfect market to stay out look at from the sidelines.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT wheat has a confirmed bottom and a long play is validWheat: This price chart is showing us TA straight from the text books with an, almost violent, test back down of the support, a repeated and strong knock on the door of resistance at 415 after, eventually, price broke up through its resistance during Friday's session. The long topping tail of Friday's candle is probably a sign that bulls needed a bit of breath after their rally run of Thursday and Friday but it could also be the bode of a bull trap so caution is to be added to caution and disciplined stops have to placed solidly and remain untouched (except for trailing up, obviously). Actually, quite an exciting development of this price during the past week with a confirmation of our call for a bottom and much more upward potential for the future. Our first target for this price is 450/460 for the end of the coming week or, possibly, the week after. Our pivotal support level is now 395 and if price would break that low we will have to redo our homework and go back to our drawing board. It is always a good policy to trail up your stop ( never down - in bull move that is) and it is worth remembering that taking profit on (a part of) your position won't make you any poorer.
CBOT:ZWZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT corn long play carries onCorn: Price is following our preferred path quite precisely an has confirmed our bull scenario during the past week. The pivotal support has been trailed up to 336 and as long as this low remains unbroken our bull scenario is valid. Nothing else to add to that other than that our mid term outlook for this price is to reach 30% to 50% higher values during the Feb-May 2017 timeframe but that is still far away and we prefer to take it one step at the time.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT soybeans keeps its bear scenario for nowSoybeans: The first essential resistance of 975 was not broken but price certainly knocked on its door during Wednesday's and Friday's session which makes us to add caution to caution with our outlook for this chart. Basically the week showed a jigsaw candle that did not break the resistance on the upside and did not take the previous low on the downside. In other words: no decisive move was made during the past week. Price is also moving with an ending diagonal already since the second half of August. An ending diagonal principally is a reliable continuation pattern from where price usually breaks out at 2/3 to 3/4 of the diagonal which, ideally, would have happened last week but could still happen next week. In short: nothing really shocking happened during the past week and, even though we did not see the expected decisive break to the downside, the bias remains unchanged to be bearish. As long as the pivotal resistance at 994 remains intact we have no reason to change our opinion.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT soyameal short remains in force but stops are tightened Soyameal: Basically a non-event again during the past week with, indeed, one more test of the 295 region after which price bounced up again. We keep our bias unchanged to the downside but stops should be tightened. A quick look at the Bollinger Band (not displayed on the chart) shows that the BB has been contracting considerably during the recent past which is a bode that a violent move is coming the market. We still expect same move to be to the downside but since there are no guarantees offered in TA it is a wise policy to tighten the stops (and to take some long straddles).
CBOT:ZMZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT not going anywhere Beanoil: Price made a 3% move up to the week which mostly came through during Friday's session. Price broke the 2 pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and 34.29 during the week and close above same levels which, principally, will give price the possibility to trade up further and possibly reach the 36/37 level. Having said so, the move of the past week could also very well be a bull trap and we do not feel comfortable either direction right now. The most likely move from here is to the upside but we would not build a long play strategy based on what we see here. It is just not a market to hold any position in either way.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT soybeans remain a short playSoybeans: We will roll over to the JAN17 chart as soon as JAN's volume starts equalling NOV's volume. Again no decisive break of price during the past week which is something that we have been waiting for since some time now. The weekly chart (not displayed/attached) shows us again a 'spinning top' candle which principally expresses indecisiveness of a market and which still leaves the door for our bear bias wide open. Last week's 'spinning top' candle had a relative long topping tail which indicates that the bull forces ran our of power during the process of trading up. Even though it does so less than perfect, price still reasonably follows our preferred path that we drew on the chart three weeks ago and we keep our bear bias unchanged. A break of the most recent low at 934 will give price an acceleration to the downside. Last week's high at 975 represents a resistance value that we would not like to see broken and a break of the 994 resistance will negate our bear bias outright and will send us back to the drawing board.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil remains neutral for nowBeanoil: This pice has given us quite a bit of headaches during the past week as it is just not going anywhere very fast. After a 'spinning top' during the week before last week price has now drawn a perfect 'doji' during the past week with an opening price of the first session of the week to be at exact the same level as the closing price of the last session of the week (being 33.31) which is a sign of further indecisiveness of the market. The candle of the week has posted a lower low and lower high which is an indication that price is trying to trade down but nothing much more than just an indication indeed. We still keep a bear scenario as very likely for this price but would not want to base a short trade on what we are seeing in this chart today. We want to kick the can down the street for one more week (and, if needed, more) to see whether the pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and, especially, at 34.29 will hold and whether the supportive zone at around the 32 value will give way. A break to the upside of 33.75 will nullify a possible bear case scenario and will probably allow price to trade up to the 36.50/37.00 zone before a possible reversal down will occur. We are detached for this one now and simply need more time.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT corn keeps its bull scenarioCorn: Price follows our preferred path reasonably well and we keep our bias unchanged to the upside. Price could extend the pullback that it started last Thursday a bit further early next week but is expect to resume its uptrend latest by Wednesday and possibly earlier. There is an ascending resistance trend line on the upside that starts at 356.5 and ends at 360 during the coming week which, if broken to the upside, will allow price to accelerate drastically. Nothing changes in our outlook, expectations and preferred path except that we have increased our pivotal support level to 325. If price would break that support we would have to reconsider our bull bias for this price and go back to our drawing board.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko