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CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat: Nothing much happened during the past week and price has mostly been moving sideways during the week with exception for Friday when price took out its most recent lows at 395/393 after which it recovered and made a very strong 3% rally from its LOD. We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged. Our bear scenario goes straight into the waste bin if price breaks 411 to the upside.
CBOT:ZWZ2016
by Remko
2
CBoT soybeans still bearishSoybeans: We were expecting that price would break down through the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 935/940 but price continued trading sideways during the week although price took out its most recent low during last Tuesday's session. This break of the most recent low at 937 was not followed by further decline though. The weekly chart (not displayed) shows a 'spinning top' for the past week which indicates indecision of the market and which keeps the door wide open for further decline. We maintain our bear bias for this chart and expect, again, that price will now decisively break out to the downside of the flat sideways during the coming week. The next challenges are the lows at the 916/910 zone of early April after which the 880 level comes in sight as first target.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil still neutralBeanoil: We have framed a bear scenario on this price for quite a long time now which was harshly interrupted by the fierce upswing during the first half of August and, to a lesser extend, by the corrective move up during mid September. As long at the most recent high of 34.83 of August 23 remains unbroken we can keep our bear scenario intact but we would like to see a decisive and impulsive move to the downside on short term. The weekly chart (not displayed here) shows a 'spinning top' which is a typical sign that market is indecisive and we can consider the last week as a lost week from TA point of view. We maintain our neutral position for now but with the bear scenario still as most probable reality for the next future. We need one more week.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT corn longCorn: Price has been moving more sideways than anything else really during the past week which was not a very significant. Price will ideally make one more initial move to the downside during Monday/Tuesday next and might even trade into the 325/320 zone after which we expect price to resume its ascend again. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41 or maybe later. A break of the previous low on August 31 would negate our bias and would force us to go back to the drawing board.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat: Price has not really been following our preferred path very precisely lately and has been knocking on the doors of the various resistances repeatedly, especially during the past week. Still, the price action as such during the past 3 weeks does not have anything of an impulse and price shyly tried but failed to trade higher. We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged as such. We currently see a typical 'bear-flag-pattern' develop which would require price to start trading down from Monday or Tuesday onwards immediately and which would guide price to the 370/360 level by first week of October.
CBOT:ZWZ2016
by Remko
CBoT soybeans remains short playSoybeans: Nothing much changed on this chart and price keeps trading sideways within the boundaries of its expanded flat. We expect price to continue its down move from here and expect it to break its recent lows of the 940/935 zone finally during the coming week. If and after this happen the road to the (roughly) 915 level if free to trade to for price where we see the lows of April. The 'pit' that was formed during March this year at the 890/870 level then becomes a solid supportive level where a bottom could be found but we will have to see if and when that really happens. For now we keep our bear bias and our 885/875 as first target.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil sidelinedBeanoil: The impulsive and strong move up during the early stage of last week hit our stops and forced us out of the market place. Looking at it from the sideline we see that the last crucial barrier between current levels and the 36/37 level has not been broken. At the same time, however, we are not convinced that the sideways move and especially Friday's lower low is a bode that price will resume its downtrend from here although the indication is there. We will need one more week to get a clearer picture, same unless an impulsive move either way will tell us more. Until then we are sidelined.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil: Price started the week with quite an impulsive move to the downside of well over 4% in just 2 sessions but made a relatively strong corrective move back up during especially the Thursday session. Nothing changes in our outlook and we maintain our bear bias. We expect price to continue its downtrend immediately from Monday's opening onward. The crucial resistance levels are 32.97 for the short term and 33.59 for the mid term. But as long as these levels are not broken to the upside we see no reason to reconsider our bias.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT soyameal remains a short play for nowSoyameal: Price did make an impulsive move to the downside early in the week as expected and moved sideways during the Wednesday session and the Thursday session. Same pattern made us expect that price would continue its move down from last Friday or next Monday onward but price made an impulsive move up instead. It could be that the corrective move up has already started which we will know if the recent high of 321.1 would be broken to the upside. In that case we will see further advance of price to 300 or more after which a reversal back is to be expected again. Our overall outlook for the mid term does not change and we keep our price target at much lower levels but it could be that our timing needs reconsideration.
CBOT:ZMZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT remains a short playSoybeans: Price has basically been bouncing between, roughly, the 980 level and 940 during the past 2 to 3 weeks keeps making impulsive moves after which a reverse occurs. Same happened again during the past week and especially the past 2 sessions showed a rather impulse to the upside which makes us believe that higher value is in the cards for this chart during the coming week. We still maintain our bear bias for price to break the 900 level downward comfortably but price apparently follows a route that takes longer than what we initially anticipated and which makes us push our timed target forward.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
CBoT corn has found its long term tradable bottomCorn: Price is keeping our preferred path as laid out last week reasonably well thus far. What we now need to see is that price keeps developing accordingly and will not break its previous low of 314/315. It could be that price will test the 330/335 supportive zone one more time and pull down through this zone to 325 or so but that should, if it happens at all, a very short times affair. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT Wheat still waiting for the bottom to formWheat: We keep our short term bias unchanged and we are still anticipating a bit further decline in price. Thus far price has been following our preferred path reasonably well although the minor correction up started a bit earlier than what we would have thought. From here we expect a little more upside move on Tuesday after which we expect price to continue it move to the downside and reach for the 370/350 level after which we will start looking for a pattern to see whether or not the bottom is finally there.
CBOT:ZWZ2016
by Remko
CBoT Corn almost ready for the long term run upCorn: Price has pushed a bit lower during the first half of the week and did make a reversal during the second half of the week. It could be that price has actually hit the low an that this low will turn out to be the low for a long time. However, after having called for a low too early 2 or 3 times during the past weeks we have become a bit more cautious and want to see confirmation. Besides, there is no hurry to jump into this market as with the picture as it currently develops we will certainly see a test of same low so we won't miss too much of it. There is a resistance zone at the 330/335 zone where price traded to during last Friday and a decisive break of same will give us the green light to look for higher levels from there. However, for now we want to hold back a bit longer just to see hoe this plays out and whether price , maybe, wants to make on more push to the downside. It is worth keeping in mind that, once a tradable low has been put on the chart, we will be looking for an very far reaching move to the upside that will take price to 450 and even possibly 500 during the first quarter of 2017. That would be some 405 to 70% higher than what we are looking at now and can be classified as a 'massive increase'. Having said so, we will have to take this one step at the time and will need to identify the tradable bottom first.
CBOT:ZCZ2016
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil still undecidedBeanoil: Price keeps us in doubt on where to look for the short term. Longer term we remain bearish with a price target at 2600 or lower but our key question for today is where price will move during the coming week. We wanted to see either a decisive break of the 3260/3250 level and a break of the 3220 mark after that or a move to the upside to reach for 36 before reversing back down. It initially looked like it was actually happening during last Thursday's session that price was going to break through to the downside but Friday's strong move up of almost 3% made the picture look quite different again. Still, Friday's candle has a fairly long topping tail which clearly indicates that the bulls ran out of air, at least for that day. We need to kick the can a bit further down the street on this chart to decide whether external markets will put weight on this price and pull it down along or that price will indeed make one swing up first during the coming 1 to 2 weeks. We will come with an update on Wednesday or Thursday.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT wheat waiting for the bottomWheat: Price took an impressive beating of 8.5% for the week with especially Friday's session being very weak with a 4% decline in value. The move of Friday was very decisive and volatile which is a very strong indication that more decline is to be expected during the coming week. There is no tradable bottom in this market just as yet and we will need to allow price another 7-10% decline before we can think of a tradable low. Even though we now feel that we have a clear vision on what is to come it is by far too late to entertain a short play but at the same time it is too early to consider a long play. Lean back, relax, wait & see.
CBOT:ZWZ2016
by Remko
CBoT corn wrong again and back to neutral for nowCorn: Price took a 5% beating during the past week and has therefore principally negated our bull scenario that we had put on the chart last week. Still, we see that the bottoming out is imminent although the confirmation of same has not yet been delivered and price is close to its contract low of Aug 12 at 322.50 which is likely going to be taken out during the coming week. We are taking a step back for a breather on this chart and we are now looking, again, for a bottom to form on very short term and keep the 310/300 region for that on our mind.
CBOT:ZCZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil stopped out and waitingBeanoil: During the 2nd half of August we were taken a bit by surprise by price's upswing which stopped us out from our bear bias. The picture of today does not really give us a very clear vision on the nearby future. Principally, we should see price resuming to the upside from here and especially now to seek for the 36/37 zone from where price can resume its long term down trend. However, price should then not break the 32.60/32.50 level in which case we will have to turn back to an immediate bear scenario. Bottomline, we are holding our horses for now and await what will unfold during the coming week before taking any side.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko