COCOA LONG 16/08/24Hello everyone,
We seem to struggle a little to get our higher high back, but an uptrend has been identified as you can see with RSI and the blue semi circle, so everything is going according to plan with a little more time than we thought.
IMPORTANT NOTE : at 15/16/17h tomorrow, there is a very strong risk of a brutal drawdown like the one we saw today, be very careful because it is almost sure at 17h, risky at 15 and 16h.
Cocoa
COCOA FULL LONG 15/08/24Hello everyone,
Tomorrow is finally our day. Between technicals, news and a low RSI compared to the previous low, every single condition is perfect for COCOA to break the roof.
Trust us, buy when it opens, wait for the end of the day, it will somehow go up, we drew a few routes to try and show you how to expect it, but no matter what happens, do not sell, stay long.
COCA SHORT 11/08/24Hello everyone,
Hope you got to spend a nice weekend, let's get back to work.
First of all the RSI is getting dangerously high, meaning a very likely fall in the few days.
Further than the technicals, there's concrete evidence among our expertise information supplier that tomorrow is going to be a spectacular drawdown.
We drew a red line in order to show you the point where you should put your SL, but it is obvious that tomorrow is the vengeance of our failure of Friday (which we are really sorry for btw)
Tomorrow is all in short, see you after for a debrief.
COCOA SHORT 09/08Hello everyone,
It is now clear that we're in a downtrend, as the RSI always rises back up after each low.
So there are several possible scenarios, but the most logical one would be a sharp fall towards the precedent lower low, as show the green and orange paths.
The red path shows the low probability path which grows back up to close the gap that was not closed yesterday, but it is highly unlikely.
We advise you to sell as soon as it opens but try to place a tight SL somewhere not too high because again, the change of a trend with cocoa can get very ugly very quick.
Hope it helps.
COCOA LONG THEN SHORT 08/08Hello everyone,
It seems like we might have reached the end of the uptrend, considering external factors and technicals such as a growing RSI on the high scales indicating a change of direction very soon.
However, it seems that there will be a gap or a downfall at first as usual, then a moderate uptrend which will start to collapse around 16/17h, when the liquidity it at its prime.
We advise you to not open any position past this time because the end of a trend with Cocoa can get very ugly things.
Hope to help you tomorrow with this, may the Lord be with us.
COCOA LONG WEDNESDAY 07/08Hello everyone,
Today is a little bit special because we've incorporated our mistakes and taken some advance by adding more downforce to our patterns.
First of all, we predict a big down gap at the beginning, because of night time factors.
Then, it might keep going down for a while, but it will eventually come back up, first to close the gap and then because our study shows it is almost sure, even more than today and yesterday.
Our advice is to buy when the gap appears, try not to be too quick, let the price fall if it wants to, but as soon as it goes back up, buy.
Hope to help you all !
COCOA LONG TUESDAY 06/08It seems that the price could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night. The turnover is starting to be clear, showing a high target at least around 8400 before tomorrow night.
Our advice is to buy maximum 1 hour after the opening, there will be a very little drawdown because of the last position of the price. But as soon as you see the price turn up, don't hesitate and go long.
Updates will follow if changes occur, thanks for your trust.
COCOA LONG MONDAY 05/08Our team of experts posts our first official forecast for our most well known asset, COCOA, with a good start because it seems that it is fully going up.
Because of technicals, weather and cocoa data analysis, even though the small red area at the top might reject the price if it gets too high, it seems that it could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night.
We drew the green semi circle to show you the global movement towards the next days, even though Cocoa stays really volatile.
Our advice is to buy at the opening, there might be a very little drawdown but for the 15 first minutes maximum, so buy as soon as it opens until 17/18 without any risks.
XAUUSD FORECAST 2MWelcome to this new page, we're a team of experts working 24/7 on metals and cocoa really detailed forecasts. Our main resources are based on news, technicals and our 3 year experience gives us a true credibility that you will see as long as we keep posting.
Please keep in your mind that :
- we're no professionals/counselors/financial advisers
- you shall not place money that you should not if you can't live without it
- we reject any kind of responsibility in case of a loss, this account only gives indications and further information regarding XAUUSD and COCOA, you and you only are in charge of your money and don't have to trust us
This is and will be a short series about XAUUSD, our team has come to the conclusion that for the next month nothing much will happen, some kind of fall between the big rally to the 3000s.
Macro Monday 50 - The Ivory Coast~The Cocoa Centre of the WorldMacro Monday 50
The Ivory Coast ~ The Cocoa Centre of the World
This week we will look at the investment opportunities presenting in the Ivory Coast which is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. This booming economy is expected to continue grow at a 6.6% GDP growth rate which competes with the likes of India (covered on a previous Macro Monday). Today we will cover the Ivory Coast Stock Index - the BRVM Composite Index, the cocoa futures market and also a little history on the west African region. We will also learn a little about the uniqueness of the cacao tree.
All of this information is valuable to anyone considering investing in the cocoa markets, the Ivory Coast or West Africa. If you’re an investor seeking unique commodity exposure or seeking to plant some seeds in a sprouting economy, you’ve come to right place. I will also review cocoa through a commodity lens and why many factors present cocoa as a unique trading opportunity and a commodity worth keeping an eye on.
The West Africa’s produce 70% of global Cocoa
Currently 70% of the world’s cocoa beans are produced in West Africa by the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon. If you ate chocolate this week, it very likely came from one these countries.
The Ivory Coast produced 2.2 million tons of cocoa in 2022 accounting for over 30% of the global supply of cocoa, making it the largest cocoa producer in the world. In the 2023/24 cocoa season this reduced to 1.8 million tons.
Also known as Côte d’Ivoire, the Ivory Coast is joined to the east by the world’s 2nd largest cocoa producer Ghana, which produced 1.1 million tons of cocoa in 2022 (approx. 20% of the global supply). In the 2023/24 season this reduced to 820,000 tons.
The recent decline of cocoa production from the two largest producers indicates the 2024 season could spawn a supply shock in cocoa, increasing the value of the commodity. Many factors have caused this decline in production some of which we will discuss later in this article.
Other notable cocoa producers include Indonesia (667,000 tons), Ecuador (337,000 tons), Brazil, Peru, and the Dominican Republic. Together, all the countries combined with the aforementioned Ivory Coast and Ghana contribute the majority of the world’s cocoa supply.
Cocoa is essential to the chocolate industry as are other products derived from cocoa beans. The production and trade of cocoa are vital for the economies of these countries, providing income for millions of small farmers and workers involved in the cocoa supply chain. Agriculture in these regions are driving major financial interest. Banks and telecommunications firms are growing rapidly, and all from producing one of the worlds most desired foods.
Top 6 Exports from the Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast’s main exports and their values in USD billions based on the most recent data from 2023:
1. Cocoa Beans: $3.33 bln
2. Gold: $2.12 bln
3. Rubber: $2.11 bln
4. Refined Petroleum: $1.88 bln.
5. Cocoa Paste: $1.08 bln.
6. Fruits and Nuts (incl cashews & coconuts): $1.2 billion.
The Ivory Coast Economy is in Growth mode
The GDP growth for Ivory Coast in 2024 is expected to be robust. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s GDP growth is forecasted at 6.6% for the year. This positive outlook is consistent with Ivory Coast’s trend of strong economic performance in recent years. The growth is driven by a diverse economy with strong sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, contributing to its status as one of the leading economies in the West African region.
The French Connection
In case you’re wondering in, 1893 Ivory Coast was made a French colony. In 1904, Ivory Coast became part of French West Africa. During World War I and World War II, Ivorian soldiers fought for France. The Ivory Coast is a Francophone country, and in 2024, French is spoken by 10 million people out of 28.9 million (33.61%). Abidjan is the city with the third biggest French speaking population anywhere in the world. It is also the fourth most populous city in Africa, with about 4.7million people living there. In international relations, Françafrique (English pronunciation: Frawn-sah-frique) is France's sphere of influence (or pré carré in French, meaning 'backyard') over former French and (also French-speaking) Belgian colonies in sub-Saharan Africa.
At present Côte d'Ivoire is Frances leading trading partner in the CFA franc zone (WAEMU countries) and the third-largest in sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa and Nigeria. France is Côte d'Ivoire's second-largest trading partner after China. As you can see, the Ivory Coast has very strong trading ties in Europe.
Demographic Snapshot - Ivory Coast
The population is c. 30 million with a median age of 19 years old. 60% of the population are under the age of 25 (as of 2020 figures) presenting a very young work abled demographic.
Ivory Coast’s Booming Stock Market in 2023
The Ivory Coast had a booming stock market in 2023 and the country as a whole appears to be presenting great economic strives and monumental investment potential.
Lets have a look at the Ivory Coast Stock Index.
The Ivory Coast Stock Index - The BRVM Composite
The Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) is the regional stock exchange of the member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. I have provided a map on another platform of these countries of which the link in is my profile.
BRVM Composite Components
The BRVM Composite is made up of 46 stocks with 39 of these companies based in the Ivory Coast and 7 based in neighboring countries. Many of the companies operate through individual subsidiary’s in each of the WAEMU countries. The Ivory Coast index provides an interesting mix of growth stocks in the Banking, cocoa production and manufacturing alongside other fruit and nuts, gold mining, telecommunications and tourism. The country is commodity rich and has the workforce to produce at scale.
The BRVM trades in the West African CFA franc, which is usually abbreviated as XOF. This currency is used by the countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), providing a stable and uniform platform for financial and economic activities within the region.
The BRVM experienced a remarkable year in 2023, with a notable performance that saw the share price of eight stocks climb into double digit figures. Additionally, the stock market’s total value made a historic leap, surpassing the CFA franc 8 trillion threshold (equivalent to approximately $13 billion USD) for the first time ever in Sept 2023.
The BRVM Composite top 5 companies by Market Cap
1.Sonatel, AKA Societe Nationale des Telecom has a market cap of CFA 1.93T ($3.2 billion USD). Accounts for approx. 20% of the entire BRVM Stock Exchange equity market.
-A major player in the telecommunications sector in West Africa, providing a range of services including fixed-line telephony, mobile communication, internet, and television.
2. Orange Côte d’Ivoire has a market cap of CFA 1.73T ($2.9 billion USD) is listed on the BRVM Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “ORAC”. Also accounts for approx. 20% of the BRVM.
-Orange Côte d’Ivoire is a subsidiary of the French group Orange and is a leader in telephony in Côte d’Ivoire, offering fixed, mobile, and internet services, as well as mobile payment services with Orange Money.
3.Societe Generale de Banques has a market cap of CFA 631 billion ($1 billion USD)
-A subsidiary of the French multinational bank Société Générale, it offers a wide range of banking products and services to individuals, corporations, institutions, and professionals in Ivory Coast.
4.Ecobank (ETI) has a market cap of CFA 396 billion ($636 million USD)
-Also known as Ecobank Transnational Inc. (ETI), it is a pan-African banking conglomerate with operations in 33 African countries. It serves both wholesale and retail customers and is a leading regional banking group in West Africa and Central Africa.
5.Coris Bank has a market cap of CFA 328 billion ($525 million USD)
-This is the second-largest banking group in Burkina Faso, providing retail, corporate, and Islamic banking services. It also offers a variety of banking products and services, including e-banking and foreign exchange.
As you can see in terms of USD these companies are only sprouting and have a lot of growth potential. These companies are obviously benefiting from major agricultural and infrastructural growth in this blooming economy.
Now onto the chart.
The BRVM Composite Chart is presently not available on Trading View however you can view it on Investing.com. When it becomes available here I will share it.
✅The smooth moving average on the chart is the 200 day SMA (or the 40 week moving average) which appears to have acted as float for price and is sloping upwards with diagonal support.
✅We can clearly observe an ascending triangle also which suggests much higher prices are plausible.
⬜️ At present this chart is not available on TradingView (even though it is powered by TradingView on another platform). I have requested it to be added to allow us to structure a trade more systematically. If it is added I will share the chart on TradingView so that we can monitor it more closely and create and interactive chart to track.
Now lets take a look at the Cocoa Futures chart.
Cocoa Futures Chart (ticker: ICEUS:CC1! )
This is the Subject Chart Above at the heading of the artical.
The cocoa futures chart is trending strongly bullish.
✅We have found support off the 21 week SMA (blue line) several times since 2022 and we can expect this to continue with such a bullish trend in place.
☑️In the event price closes below the 21 week we can then start looking for a sizable correction down to $6,545. Outside of this, the chart is looking great.
✅IMO the most likely outcome is for the price to blast on up to an all-time high or consolidate sideways until the end of the Sept 2024, after which we would likely have a DSS Bressert cross and continue to move higher. Consolidation after a 375% + increase in price since Jan 2023 would be fairly standard procedure. This includes the scenario of a fall to $6,545 which I would still consider a consolidation move, however I find this less likely of an outcome.
Many factors are driving the price of Cocoa up, we will look at some key factors and concerns in the cocoa market below.
The Cacao Tree Requires a Specific Climate to Grow
Cacao is cocoa in its raw, less-processed form. Cacao grows from trees called Theobroma cacao. Cacao trees are native to South America, West Africa, and some countries in Asia. Its quite incredible how the plant can only thrive in very specific regions called Equatorial Zones.
The 3 main species of Theobroma Cacao prefer an equatorial-humid climate, with nearly year-round constant specific humid temperatures. The areas are often coastal or have coastal drafts, have low elevations and super dense humidity. The Cacoa Tree doesn’t mind the heat as much as Coffee Arabica, but it absolutely needs nearly super-saturated water vapor in the atmosphere to survive. The cacao leaf is not very glossy, so if the air is too dry, it will lose all of its water to the detriment of its fruit.
Roughly 35 cacao seeds are generated from each hanging fruit which is then fermented and roasted to create our beloved chocolate taste. This process can take a few days to a number of weeks. The raw form of cacao is much more bitter and can be difficult to eat, albeit I recently discovered it is a great coffee replacement. Interestingly, Both are the seed of a fruit — the coffee "cherry" and the cacao pod that contains 35seeds or beans. While much of chocolate's flavor is developed during a lengthy fermentation process, for coffee, a short fermentation has less impact on flavor and is more a means of separating the seed from the fruit. Both Coffee and Cocoa offer natural stimulants; caffeine for coffee and theobromine for Cacao.
The main Cacao crop growing season is from Oct - Mar (yielding c.80% of annual produce) and the secondary season is May to Aug which yields c. 20%. At present a tree virus is causing significant issues reducing crops by up to 50%, we will discuss this below.
Cocoa Virus Killing up to 50% of Cocoa trees
Unfortunately, a rapidly spreading virus threatens the health of the cacao tree and the dried seeds from which chocolate is made, jeopardizing the global supply of the world's most popular treat.
As noted above, about 50% of the world's chocolate originates from cacao trees in the West Africa countries of Ivory Coast and Ghana. The damaging virus is attacking cacao trees in Ghana, resulting in harvest losses of between 15 - 50%. Spread by small insects called mealybugs that eat the leaves, buds and flowers of trees, the cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) is among the most damaging threats to the root ingredient of chocolate.
"This virus is a real threat to the global supply of chocolate"
Benito Chen-Charpentier (professor of mathematics at The University of Texas at Arlington and an author of "Cacao sustainability)
Ghana has lost more than 254 million cacao trees in recent years, and the best measures to address the virus are an expensive vaccine (heightening cost) that renders a smaller plant (reducing yield). Farmers are attempting to separate the plants by greater distances however, this results in a similar issue with lessor plants and reduced supply/returns.
In summary the virus could cause a major global cocoa shortage causing a major supply shock to the cocoa industry, even the news of this event could cause the value of cocoa to rise. Combine this with the secondary season ending in Aug 2024 poorly, and we are setting up for a cocoa shortage coming into the cocoa demand Christmas season.
Ivory Coast and Senegal Clear Leaders in West Africa
Finally, I wanted to recognize that the Ivory Coast is not on their own and many of the countries around them are also thriving. The Ivory Coast and Senegal both play significant roles in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The Ivory Coast is often considered the powerhouse of the union, contributing a substantial portion of the region’s GDP. It is the driving economy within WAEMU, with a notable share of the nominal GDP of the zone. On the other hand, Senegal is recognized as the second-largest economy in the WAEMU area and has been making strides in economic growth and development through initiatives like the Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE). While Dakar, Senegal, hosts the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which is crucial for the financial stability and monetary policy of the WAEMU, the Ivory Coast’s economic weight within the union is also significant. Therefore, both countries can be seen as key financial centers in their own right within the WAEMU context, with the Ivory Coast leading in economic size and Senegal in its strategic role hosting the BCEAO.
The Hunt for West African Brokerages
I am in the process of hunting for safe and reliable brokers in the Ivory Coast and West Africa’s region. I have found some but I could not recommend them until I do some testing and get some opinions. If anyone has any information on this, I would be very happy to have it and share it with the community here. In any event, I will look for easier indexes also that include exposure to the these countries and to Cocoa.
Interactive Charts on TradingView
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Ireland's stock market has performed. I hope its helpful.
I wrote this and consumed a whole bar of 85% Lindt Chocolate….hard to believe the journey it took to reach here.
Thanks again for coming along,
PUKA
COCOA about to crashNot much of a technical analysis as we can see but there is not much we can do about it. The chart is just parabolic due to the high amount of big companies hedging against the worse-than-expected harvest. The fundamental analysis could not be much of a help either because nothing can resonate with such pricing for the cocoa. This type of trade is just speculative because it has a decent Risk-Reward.
Stops above the previous high
TP between 7,000-7,600$
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position.
The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain.
Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions.
As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend.
In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
Cocoa: Final Surge 🌊Cocoa has now risen more than 26% since the low of the magenta wave (4) and still seems to be dominated by the bulls. We now expect one last surge before the price reaches the high of the magenta wave (5), which shouldn't be too far away, completing the white wave (B). After that, the trend should be down again, starting with the magenta wave (1).
Cocoa: The next step 🪜After a minor consolidation phase in which the price of cocoa stagnated just below the pink trend line, the next step of the magenta wave (5) was completed: a clear breakout above this line. We now expect a larger upward expansion until the magenta five-wave move and thus the superior white wave (B) is completed. After this top, the price should go down again - first with the magenta wave back towards the trendline.
Cocoa: On a diet 🚫🍫With the recent surge in cocoa prices, we’ve observed the completion of the white wave d as forecasted in our primary scenario. Given this development, our projections suggest an impending decline characterized by a magenta five-part wave, targeting $2900. Nonetheless, it's essential to consider a 40% probability that the price might reach a slightly higher peak before initiating the expected descent
CC Cacao: Trade Commodity THIS EasterHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
Are you looking to make a trade out of Easter weekend? Look no further than Cocoa futures, or chocolate.
Cocoa is a soft commodity that is used to produce chocolate, and it is traded on several global commodity exchanges. One of the most significant exchanges for trading cocoa futures is the ICE Futures US (Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S.). The exchange offers futures contracts for cocoa, which allows investors to speculate on the future price of cocoa beans. The cocoa futures contract on the ICE Futures US is traded under the symbol CC. Each CC contract represents 10 metric tons of cocoa beans, and the contract price is quoted in U.S. dollars per metric ton. The contract months for trading cocoa futures are March, May, July, September, and December.
The price of cocoa can be influenced by several factors, including supply and demand, weather conditions, and political instability in cocoa-producing regions. For example, adverse weather conditions, such as drought or flooding, can reduce cocoa yields and increase prices. Similarly, political unrest or conflicts in cocoa-producing countries can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices. Easter Weekend is a time known well for Easter bunny egg hunts and other chocolate delights, meaning that demand increases for cocoa in the months leading up to Easter. Considering that from a chart analysis the price of Cocoa has already increased over the past few months, it is the ideal time to consider a short right after Easter.
Easter has become a global celebration, and many cultures around the world have their unique ways of celebrating the holiday. For example, in Greece, the week leading up to Easter is called "Holy Week," and it is a time of fasting and religious observances. On Easter Sunday, families gather to celebrate with a feast of lamb and other traditional foods.
In the United States, Easter is celebrated with the Easter Bunny, who brings baskets of candy and treats to children. The Easter Bunny has its origins in German folklore, where it was a symbol of fertility and new beginnings. The tradition was brought to America by German immigrants in the 1700s.
In many Latin American countries, Easter is celebrated with parades and processions, where people carry statues of Jesus and the Virgin Mary through the streets. In Spain, there is a tradition called "Semana Santa," or "Holy Week," which involves elaborate processions and celebrations.
In India, the Christian community celebrates Easter by attending church services and exchanging gifts and greetings with friends and family. The holiday is also an opportunity for people of different faiths to come together and celebrate the arrival of spring.
In conclusion, Easter is a holiday that is celebrated around the world as a time of new beginnings, renewal, and the victory of life over death. Whether celebrated with bunnies and candy or religious observances and parades, Easter is a time for people of all cultures and faiths to come together and celebrate the beauty and wonder of spring.
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Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2838
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2565
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2838
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2565
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.