Breakout long in CCLCarnival Cruise Lines, along with the other major cruise carriers, fell sharply during the COVID selloff for obvious reasons.
CCL has been consolidating for almost a year to create a new price acceptance zone.
But the stock is now breaking out on high volume.
Look for a continuation higher on sustained volume as it enters price discovery mode toward higher prices.
CCL
CCL LongCCL @ 24.60 48 shares
Stop is set to 21.75.
Target is 27.35.
I will move my stop and double down at 27.35 and pyramid into my trade adding 48 more shares with the same stop target at 29.99 or higher I will sell part of my trade.
Trend following trade. I want to practice holding long and being patient.
Target exit is 2 months.
It is written - CCL to $31+Draw whatever targets you prefer. Cup & Handle, Bull Flag,Inverse H&S, you name it. Excited on this one, entered in 21s.
All else aside, people want to cruise. Combine business fundamentals with technicals (including CCL $8B+ in cash as of 9/30/20) this could be a home run.
Carnival Cruise Line - "Megaphones"Currently, I'm still looking for the best price to enter a long-term investment. The technical analysis gives a hint that it possible for CCL to recover. We can see a potential Golden cross on the daily time-frame and a Broadening Wedge Patterns or "Megaphones" on the weekly.
Sooner or later, the business and tourism will be back to normal. Carnival will be on my watchlist for a long-term investment.
Here's below the "Megaphones"
Catalyst:
- Golden Cross
- Megaphones
CCL Wave 5Surprisingly Carnival Cruise popped up on my scanner and has a good Elliott Wave count. The ABC correction is following parallel channel and demand zone lines up with the mid-line of the parallel channel. Wave 2 and Wave 4 are alternating and the 0.382 lines up with the demand zone. Looking for a play after earnings report this week.
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, LEN, MU, CCL EARNINGS; XOP/XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT-RELATED VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS (IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT):
Here are the options-liquid underlyings announcing next week that I've culled down to 30-day >50% as candidates for volatility contraction plays:
LEN (21/49/11.6%),* announcing Wednesday after market close
MU (24/52/12.2%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified)
FDX (29/53/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close
CCL (27/91/21.1%), announcing Friday (no time specified)
Pictured here is a January 15th 17.5/27.5 short strangle in CCL which announces Friday, paying 1.36 as of Friday close with delta/theta of -4.86/4.84 with break evens wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, and between the 1 and 2 x on the put. Although no time is currently specified, it is likely to announce before market open (because who, like, announces after Friday close?), so would look to put on a play in the waning hours of Thursday's session if you want to take advantage of Friday's post-announcement volatility contraction.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK:
XOP (21/60/16.3%)**
GDXJ (15/44/12.9%)
XLE (30/45/12.5%)
KRE 924/41/11.1%)
SLV (25/40/11.2%)
GDX (16/38/10.7%)
EWZ (15/39/10.6%)
XBI (24/38/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
IWM (25/30/7.8%)
QQQ (23/30/7.6%)
DIA (16/23/6.0%)
SPY (16/23/5.6%)
EFA (20/24/5.1%)
TREASURY/BOND FUNDS:
Adding a little bond/treasury section to here since I occasionally park what would otherwise be idle cash in short puts (See Post Below).
TLT (11/15/3.99%) (1.609% yield)
HYG (11/11/2.41%) (4.917% yield)
EMB (5/9/--)*** (4.024% yield)
AGG (29/8/--)*** (2.252% yield)
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the January 15th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
** -- Here, I'm using the short straddle price nearest 45 days until expiry to calculate the "bang for your buck" percentage, which would be the January 29th weekly.
*** -- EMB and AGG don't have weeklies nearest 45 days.
Carnival Corp - LargoEsta empresa de cruceros fue de las grandes perdedoras durante la caída del Covid en los mercados.
Sin, embargo, con más información del precio y el contexto, parece que ese movimiento lateral que tuvo era una acumulación y el rompimiento a la alza tuvo como catalizador las noticias sobre las vacunas que han salido exitosas en sus pruebas.
Esta semana podemos ver un testeo de la zona superior del rango lateral. O una ruptura de la línea de tendencia rosa.
Es posible un gran trade con buen riesgo beneficio.
LONG LYFT POTENTIAL 30% UPSIDELYFT starting to move after a POST IPO dump.
Looks good on the long side taking into consideration UBERs recent move above its IPO level.
Entering the Food business, I believe further government regualtion will be good for the stock.
Potential double bottom, trade into $50 resistance level.
Carnival Stock Analysis with Technical AnalysisBased on Technical Analysis the best option would be to hold for now, before going long.
NYSE:CCL
Fundamental Analysis
Cruise ship stocks gave back some of their recent gains on Thursday, as surging COVID-19 case counts threaten to delay the beleaguered industry's recovery. By the close of trading, shares of Carnival (NYSE:CCL) (NYSE:CUK), Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NASDAQ:NCLH) were down 7.8%, 3.9%, and 3.4%, respectively.
Cruise ship stocks surged on Monday after Pfizer and BioNTech said their experimental coronavirus vaccine could be more than 90% effective at preventing COVID-19. A safe and highly effective vaccine would be a boon for cruise ship operators, who have suffered billions in losses with their ships stuck at port due to coronavirus-related sailing restrictions.
However, even if Pfizer and BioNTech receive regulatory approval, their vaccine may not be widely available until well into 2021. In the meantime, Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line are burning through nearly $1 billion in cash per month in aggregate.
With COVID-19 case counts soaring in the U.S. and many international markets, health officials could choose to extend sailing restrictions into 2021. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have all raised cash to survive such a scenario, but each month that goes by eats into their cash cushions, thereby increasing the risk for investors.