Double Bottom in Disney?Walt Disney has been under pressure for the last year. But now it may have formed a bullish reversal pattern.
DIS dove toward $129.30 on January 24 during the S&P 500’s initial swoon this year. It retested and held that level on Tuesday, resulting in a potential double-bottom pattern.
Next, the pullback represents a retracement of the entire rally that occurred in late 2020 and early 2021 after Pfizer’s vaccine news spurred confidence in the economy reopening .
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
The trend remains bearish and sentiment is negative following the spike in gasoline and jet-fuel prices. However this double-bottom pattern could make traders start to think about a bounce .
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Centered Oscillators
LAC about to jump higher before the March stumble?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on March 4, 2022 with a closing price of 24.973.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 25.11 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.579% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.399% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 17.491% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 21 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 40 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
SOLANA Slope RSI at an extreme pointThere has not been a pattern to confirm the bottom yet and it would be unwise to enter a trade right now but we the indicators are telling me that the bottom has been reached. The honey Cypher VWAP is at a very low point, the previous time it reached this level we got a massive move to the upside. At this point we had a double bottom formation which further increased the likelyhood of a strong trend.
My strategy here is to wait for a reversal pattern to surface and enter a trade with a very small stop loss, -2% with a TP1 5% TP2 10% and a trailing at 3% with -3%. You could also enter a trade the moment a reversal brick get's printed but that is less reliable than the patterns.
Link to the bounded slope oscillator.
History Repeating on MACDIt seems history is repeating.
Weekly MACD histogram and daily MACD and histogram crossing negative preceded the crash in May. Daily MACD finding support, followed by the histogram crossing positive marked the start of the rally in August.
The same sequence of events has just completed in the last few days. Time for a bull run?
RSI AMPLIFIER// (v4) RSI AMPLIFIER ( MCDX-Oscillator + Renko-Filter ) ( BTC ) ( 1h,2h,3h,4h )
//Authors credit:
//Smart Money based of / Indicator | MCDX
//Renko Volume based of "Weiss Wave Volume" / "WWV"
//The SmartMoney MCDX (MultiColor-Dragon) amplify rsi values to give confirmation of so called BANKER or SMART-MONEY against Retaillers.
//The main issue to me was that the original "SmartMoney MCDX" give only half the potential information since it focus only on positive price action.
//Therefore this version is a SMART-MONEY OSCILLATOR built to give entry/exit signals for shorts as well as long.
//The Real-Momentum plot replaces HOT MONEY (area, darkgreen/darkred), react quickly to oversold/overbought and hit the max/min value at almost every bar.
//The Over-Extended plot replaces BANKER MONEY (stepline, yellow/blue), need a stronger oversold/overbought value to move from the middle.
//The Signal-Line plot (line, green/red, with filler), is halfway between the Real-Mommentum & Over-Extended trying to give a signal after the move start but before the biggest candles.
//
//The original RETAILLERS MONEY carries no information and as been erased.
//
//Renko-Filter reduce the noise by adding volume values to each new columns until the trend reversal.
//How to use:
//
//The purpose and logic of this indicator is " Amplify to Simplify "
//
//Enter trade when the Signal-Line leave the middle.
//Long when it go TOP GREEN / Short when it go BOTTOM RED
//Exit trade when the Signal-Line return to middle or/while the Renko-Filter reverse.
//
//When you analyze the chart stay zoom out with max/min on the edges of the pan. Only the biggest Renko-series will be visible.
//When trading, you may zoom in to see evolution in real time.(version built for minutes time-frames in progress)
//
//You can easily set a LONG TRADE alarm on the Signal-Line, choosing "Greater than 10" then "Less than 50000"
//You can easily set a SHORT TRADE alarm on the Signal-Line, choosing "Less than -10" then "Greater than -50000"
//
//Be careful when Real-Momentum start being choppy or simply goes too much/too long in the opposite side of the trend.
//If the Over-Extended plot follow the Signal-Line after you enter a trade, you're good but always exit before the Over-Extended return to mid.
//Use the Renko-Filter to detect lauching Extended-Trend, to confirm Real-Momentum reversal, or to stay in a trade to the last candles.
// INFO:
//This version is built on purpose for BTC 1h/2h/3h/4h, differents assets, time-frames or exchanges may need change.
//If you can't see the Over-Extended, Signal Line or Renko-Filter with a particular time-frame or asset, you can change the value of the rsi at "rsi := 500000" & "rsi := -500000".
//Change by a value > to that of the candles (last value in status line).
//Zoom in on the indicator to see the Renko-Filter but idealy you want to see the max/min value of the 3 plot of the indicator(default = 50000).
//
// Overlay:
//You can display this indicator directly on your Chart and set No scale (fullscreen), to use it like as a RSI Baseline.
//If so, i made specifics version doing it by default (overlay,BTC)(overlay,largeCAP).
//@version=4
CCI has light at the end of this tunnelBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on February 18, 2022 with a closing price of 162.34.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 171.32 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 15.282% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.349% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 28.872% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 14 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
WTI sell divergence on dailyBLACKBULL:WTI
After this bull run of the oil price, in normal conditions (without war), we should also have a price correction. On time frame D1 we have a sell divergence already formed, we have a liquidity zone around the price of 93,400. If the price manages to break down the last minimum format, and close a candle below the price of 88,500 without the MACD averages going through 0, we have a clean sell entry on the Daily with a TP up to the price area of 77,000.
BTCUSD H1 scalp down to 41370 likely to -38.2% fibHere's an hourly chart recommended on the previous Daily chart post for scalping of a likely pullback. As explained there, we were looking on H1 chart for a break of 13CCI down thru an uptrendline, shown here on chart, from 44315.
Resumption of Up trend would be a cross of CCI back up thru a down trendline on CCI, after tagging -38.2% retracement
BTCUSD Daily 13CCI tlb cautious LongFinally BTCUSD Daily has a solid 13CCI trendline break for a Long signal. However, be cautious because
1) BTCUSD just had a abnormally strong candle up
2) price is about to run into strong resistance at 50 sma
3) I need to see clear divergence on CCI relative to the CCI low on the time cycle to the left, followed by a rest of the low, before a Long can go far.
Some might argue that these are already in, and may look rushed relative to te more common divers, which may be true
Watch for a possible rejection at the 50 sma. Watch for any cross of CCI back down thru an uptrendline, then watch for a diver, retest of low, then be ready for strog Long after a CCI tb of any down trendline
The reason I'm giving this CCI tlb some quarter s that the price patterrn down from Nov can qualify as a measured move, 5-3-5
LSPD : BOOMER / MOMENTUM TRADELightspeed POS Inc. provides commerce enabling Software as a Service (SaaS) platform for small and midsize businesses, retailers, restaurants, and golf course operators in Canada, the United States, Germany, Australia, and internationally. Its SaaS platform enables customers to engage with consumers, manage operations, accept payments, etc. The company’s cloud platforms are designed interrelated elements, such as omni-channel consumer experience, a comprehensive back-office operations management suite to improve customers’ efficiency and insight, and the facilitation of payments.
SOURCE : seekingalpha.com
DOTUSD Hello traders this is a simple analysis with ichimoku as you see we have a great gap in ichimoku clouds and there are some support and resistance that they are based on ichimoku data ( I removed TS and KS for simpler chart ) and for confirmation we can see a convergence in MACD and also the price is on the historical line . so I expect up trend for this cryptocurrency ( if the price break the black line to downside this analysis will be fielded and we should wait for a better trigger price )
$FDX Weekly - what is the path of least resistance ? FDX weekly - is the shaded box "higher lows" and thus preparing for a rally to ATHs ? Or is the shaded box a Bear flag with a break down imminent.
Time will tell ... Looks oddly similar to APR-MAY 2019 price action
My bias is to the downside but will wait for confirmation - no trade for me ... yet
Shiba Inu is it ready for another zero down?Hello Traders,
Just wanted to make a few points here and talk about my plan for shib. As you can see Shib has been forming a descending channel for 3 full months. Which recently on the last pullback within the channel the RSI reached oversold territory. Previously back in September of 2021 the RSI also hit this same area and this indicated it had bottomed. I am looking to see if it does the same this time. You can also see some bullish divergence on the MACD.
Yet, if we do see one more pullback from this area I would think the RSI would be diverged as the price action hits the bottom of the channel in the demand zone as well as the area where the trend line having a nice confluence of areas to buy, then I would enter my trade there and place my stop loss directly under this area as you can see on the chart.
Have a green week and I will see you in the next analysis!
Savvy
AT&T ready to for the next big jump? Dear TradingView-Community,
today I want to share the first investment idea and I hope it will help you making the right decisions or bring a new perspective to your analysis.
I really would like you to ask for feedback, that I can also learn from different views to become better over time. Thanks a lot for your time and I really hope it is not wasted, but for your benefit.
As you can see on the chart, it is a really long cycle of the AT&T stock performance. As many communication stocks at that time AT&T hit its all-time high shortly before the dot-com bubble reached its biggest volume. AT&T have never seen this price since. Instead over the years there were several up and downs, but all had one thing in common >> every high and low stayed within a triangle (purple lines) and the volatility went down more and more.
In October 2021 after presenting Q3 results, the stock price went to free fall and left the triangle to the lower end. But the downturn haven't stopped there, also the last significant support zone at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement - red line and active since 2005 - couldn't stop the sell off. Instead the chart went down almost until the last significant low from both - end of the dot-com correction (2002-2003) and end of the financial crisis (end of 2008-2009) (red bubbles).
Now let's take a closer look to the indicators, to find out if this also is a similar extreme reaction of the market as it was twice in the last decade.
1. RSI - Relative Strength Index
As you can see in the picture only 4 times since 2000 we could see a oversold situation in the weekly RSI chart until today. It is relatively easy to interpret the first 3 oversold situation because it was always the end of a broader market correction (dot-com, financial crisis, Covid 1st wave). Therefore it was also pretty easy to predict that the oversold situation will be corrected by increasing stock prices after the fear went out of market and the optimisim took place.
But what about the current situation?
We have an even more oversold situation, in fact we reached a new all-time low at 16.46. It would be very easy to argue that this is a perfect moment to buy stocks as much as possible, because this oversold situation will be cleared for sure very soon. But...
In my opinion there are several obstacles on the way and it is not that clear that a higher RSI also comes along with a higher stock price.
1. Currently we don't have had a broader market event that explains the downturn of this stock.
2. The competitor situation has changed dramatically over the last decade. (rise of T-Mobile US and recently the rollout of Tesla's StarLink project.
3. The liability situation becomes worse dramatically over the last 5 years with acquisitions of DirecTV and TimeWarner.
4. Both really large acquisitions are already on the way to separate again from AT&T in new corporations, but for a far lower value than purchased before.
5. The necessity of investing into 5G and fiber optic infrastructure to fight the competitors.
6. The latest spin-off announcement and the merger of HBO and Discovery also leads to dividend cuts for the first time since 50 years.
7. Technically the bearish cross of the triangle is a massive sell signal, but this is already happen and the price dropped already 20% since then.
Nevertheless, I need to point out that all above arguments also have some positive counterparts + we need to differentiate between a long-term investment based on value investment strategies and an short to mediate technical based investment.
So let's find out the positive things about the current situation and the nearer future:
1. Technically we are at an extreme low point when it comes to fib-retracement and RSI - that can lead to a turnaround with a short-term potential until $24.75 (23.6% Fib-retracement) or even $29.34 (38.2% Fib and connection to the triangle.
2. The merger of HBO-Discovery leads to a lot of additional stocks from the new corporation (70% of the AT&T stocks when you hold your stocks until the merger went through (approx. mid 2022). As you can see after several spin-off of different companies (e.g. Mercedes-Benz AG split from Mercedes-Benz Truck and Buses) the sum of both stocks are very often more worth than the stock before the spin-off. Means even when the AT&T stock price is not tending upwards, the spin-off and merger next year brings lots of potential.
3. The Spin-off leads to a significant liability reduction for the AT&T stock and that leads to a better value for the whole company.
4. The new merger is one of the market entertainment leader and with its digital and subscription growth strategy as well as its plans to expand to Europe, the best position in sport documentation and the strong brands will be a great base for expansion.
5. The reduced dividend kicks out dividend investors, but also leads to more free cash-flow to speed up the extension of 5G and fiber network.
6. The separation from the media section leads to more focus on the core business and allows to slimline the customer approach what also will safe operational costs.
7. AT&T is still a strong brand and one of the biggest communication companies in the world. It serves not just the US but the most countries of the world on all continents. Especially in raising Latin America AT&T is leader in costumer experience and working environment. A great foundation for further growth. Also the connection to the US government and especially into the emergency and health sector is a Garant for stable returns.
What I am now looking for to find a safe trade-in point with a W/L ratio of at least 2/1:
1. MACD weekly
When the blue line is crossing the red line again upwards that is a clear sign of strength and very bullish to interpret. Especially on the weekly basis. To trade-in earlier and have both - more potential and risk - you can use the daily basis instead. But the risk of a false signal is slightly higher.
2. OBV weekly
OBV stands for On-Balance-Volume and symbolize the activity of "smart money". Means a new high in OBV symbols massive institutional activities and could be interpreted that there is a lot of big money in the stock. On the other side new lows symbol the complete opposite. As you can see in the chart above the idea is to figure out new extreme points and use them as an investment chance.
In my opinion, we currently see a big uncertainty from institutions about the plans AT&T is planning to go. Or more likely because of the uncertainty the big money went out of the stock to observe the ongoing events and the next steps of the company from the side lane.
This brings me to think about against the main stream and feels a lot like over fearing. For me a good signal to get in, because as soon as the smart money comes back, the stock price is likely already jump by 10% or more.
3. CMV weekly
The Chaikin-Money-Flow stands for buying pressure when positive and for selling pressure when negative. As you find in the Chart, very often a new low of the CMV leads to a massive return reaction in the chart price. Therefore I am thinking again with this new all time low, the technical pressure to the upside is already in the making and could lead to a new buying period over the next couple of month.
What do you think about my interpretation on AT&T? Is it a buy, a hold or still a stock to short? I am already excited about your additional indicators that had work for you and what this indicators may tell about the next move of the AT&T stock.
Please also feel free to comment critic on my interpretation, but it would be great, when you also add some value how to do better in future.
Again thank you very much for your time and if this was value for you, you are always welcome to donate. That helps me to stay motivated in sharing my analysis.
Best wishes and maximum profit for all of you.
Daniel from EcoFinLife
>>> When all passengers in a boat are leaning to much over port it's time to go to starboard. Earlier than later the others will follow. <<<