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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

Hello $2075 The 'Stimulus Optimism Trade' is back Around the world, major fiat currencies are looking at major devaluation. In the US, a stimulus deal is in the works with a bipartisan group of lawmakers in discussions for $900+ billion deal to stimulate the economy. Last month's jobs report showed that economic recovery is slowing down. This may have tipped Democrats and Republicans to considering more stimulus. On the other side of the Atlantic, the EU has been working on a stimulus deal. However, the plan may flop as Hungary & Poland threatening to veto the deal. Reports from Brussels say that policymakers are working to circumvent the two countries. Should the deal go through, the EURO will be under pressure. Japan's Suga run into problems with convincing lawmakers in the country to approve a $900b deal. His approval ratings are low as second wave of coronavirus spreads in Japan. However, this will put more pressure on lawmakers to pass the stimulus bill. What's up with Central Banks? The FED, ECB & BOJ are expected to keep rates low this month. These banks also hold an unprecedented level of assets in form of treasuries and stocks. They won't stop buying until they are convinced that recovery has been achieved. Why is all these important? The DXY, EURO & JPY are some of the most used currencies in the world. The actions by governments around the world will devalue currencies leaving metal Commodities as the best safe havens. I expect XAUUSD to break the ATHs in 2021 through to 2023.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
1
UP OR DOWN?INTEREST RATES WOULD RISE IF PRICES WERE TRULY DETERMINED BY FREE MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND! BUT THE CENTRAL BANKS WILL MONETIZE EVERY GOVERNMENT BOND IN EXISTENCE BEFORE THEY ALLOW YIELDS TO ENDANGER THE SOLVENCY OF ANY GOVERNMENT! IF THERE IS AN EXPLOSION IN YIELDS, FORCING CENTRAL BANKS TO ENGAGE IN UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS OF MONETIZATION, THIS WILL UNDERMINE FAITH IN THE PURCHASING POWER OF CURRENCY, LEADING TO A COMPLETE SELL-OFF IN ALL BOND MARKETS, FORCING OVERALL INTEREST RATES MUCH HIGHER! THE INEVITABLE OUTCOME OF ALL THE ACTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BANKS AND THE OVERALL IMPLOSION OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS CLEAR: HYPERINFLATION!
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
HYPERINFLATION! VOLATILITY!AMERICAN EQUITIES ARE SO COMPLETELY OVERVALUED, THEIR SHARES NO LONGER REFLECT ANY SEMBLANCE OF ECONOMIC REALITY OR POTENTIAL PROFITABILITY! DESPITE THIS THEY MAY VERY WELL MAKE NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS, BUT ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION (THE ACTUAL RATE, OF COURSE), THEY WILL BE IMPLODING! THIS IS BECAUSE THE DOLLAR WILL FALL SO HARD, ALL PRICES WILL RISE! THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ELECTION AND THE COMPLETELY VAPORIZED GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL OF COURSE CREATE A GREAT AMOUNT OF VOLATILITY IN ALL MARKETS! BUT OUTSIDE OF BONDS, ALL PRICES WILL INEVITABLY EXPLODE! THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT MANY EXPERTS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR DECADES! IF YOU DO NOT ALREADY HAVE FORMS OF PROTECTION, IT MAY ALREADY BE TOO LATE!
TVC:DJILong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
2
DOLLAR IMPLOSION!THERE IS SIMPLY TOO MUCH EVIDENCE SUGGESTING AN IMMINENT DOLLAR CRASH! FISCAL DEFICITS, FEDERAL RESERVE DEBT MONETIZATION, AN UNSOUND ECONOMY, CIVIL UNREST, POLITICAL DIVISION AND AN OVERALL ABANDONMENT OF TRADITIONAL AMERICAN VALUES ARE ALL DOMESTIC FACTORS DIMINISHING DEMAND FOR THE U$D AND SLOWLY ERODING ITS RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS! I BELIEVED THE DOLLAR WOULD SHOW STRENGTH HEADING INTO 2021 (AFTER ACCURATELY PREDICTING A CRASH DURING 2020), AND THIS MAY STILL OCCUR, BUT I NOW BELIEVE THE ELECTION AND THE EVENTS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY UNFOLD WILL TRIGGER A TOTAL IMPLOSION OF DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES!
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Silver Trend OutlookSilver technicals and structure has an intact bullish makeup The long-term analysis shows that silver has cleared all major resistance and should follow gold to a new all-time high within the next 6-12 months, possibly much faster. The macro fundamentals are supremely bullish: Negative interest rates and the beginning of a global currency war/easing cycle/competition to devalue. Massive fiscal stimulus is on the horizon in the next 3-5 months, and not just in the US. Rest of the world is starting to catchup. The long-term global trend towards electric, clean, and renewable energy and the sheer amount of investment required to change our energy infrastructure will require that silver goes parabolic, along with many other commodities. There's not a lot of silver in the world. New production takes time, cannot happen overnight. A Biden win / blue wave will mean marginally more open global trade, which is bullish commodities. It will also mean something like a green new deal, infrastructure spending, and stimulus that could cause the US economy to overdose. FX_IDC:XAGUSD TVC:SILVER
TVC:SILVERLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
SILVER REMAINS KING! HYPERINFLATION!SILVER IS AND WILL BE THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET OF THE 2020s! PRECIOUS METALS HAVE SHARPLY INCREASED IN PRICE DUE TO RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS! OIL REMAINS CHEAP BECAUSE OF BROKEN AND DYING GLOBAL TRADE! OTHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE INCREASING AS SUPPLY CHAINS COME UNDER PRESSURE AND DEMAND IS FUELED BY CREDIT EXPANSION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS! CORPORATE BOND PRICES ARE BEING JAWBONED HIGHER BY CENTRAL BANK OFFICIALS AND THEIR OFF-THE-BALANCE SHEET MANIPULATION! REAL ESTATE BOND PRICES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER AS URBAN AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS HAVE ESSENTIALLY IMPLODED BUT CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION IN CREDIT MARKETS HAS PREVENTED A COMPLETE CREDIT FREEZE AND SELL-OFF...FOR NOW! GOVERNMENT BOND PRICES REMAIN ELEVATED AS UNCERTAINTY AND ILLIQUIDITY HAVE PUSHED CAPITAL INTO DEFENSIVE ASSETS AND CENTRAL BANKS HAVE MONETIZED DEFICITS AT AN UNPRECEDENTED PACE, BUT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, ESPECIALLY FROM ABROAD, HAVE PREVENTED A FURTHER FALL IN YIELDS! MEANWHILE, EQUITIES HAVE BEEN BID HIGHER THROUGH CURRENCY DARK POOLS AND FEDERAL EXPENDITURE! THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS ENTERED THE GREATER DEPRESSION, AS MANY EXPERTS PREDICTED WOULD HAPPEN FOR YEARS! HOW THE NEXT DECADE PLAYS OUT WILL BE THE DEFINING EVENT OF OUR LIFETIMES! HYPERINFLATION IS NOT ONLY POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY!
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Pumped for the big Bitcoin Pump - BTC Adoption and thoughtsBitcoin is 11 years old and is already changing the world of finance. I see Bitcoin reaching it's previous All Time High by March/April of 2021. If it happens sooner or later, that's fine. I'm confident this is only the beginning for Bitcoin. In July 2020, we finally broke out of that nasty bear trend going back to the high from December 2017. We retested that trend in August again (which is a healthy move), but have since moved and stayed above it. That was painful and took soooo long! Let's please just skip that dreadful time of life next time around. Bullish feels so good! Go ahead and take a moment to appreciate those who have been able to hold on for these last few years of the journey. There's a chance we stay in a long term equilibrium pattern on the monthly, but we are close to breaking a big resistance of $13,868 and if we do, then the all time high of $19,891 is in sights. After that, it's time to buckle up. With all the positive news and infrastructure growth in this space, things are looking bright. Yes, I expect some big drops along the way, in particular after we break the all time high, but long term, things are looking positive. Adoption!!! We will continue to see companies and other institutions pouring money into Bitcoin. In the grand scheme of things, it is a gradual inflow right now, but this trend will continue to gain momentum. There is quite a bit of recent news on this matter: - Grayscale is currently purchasing 77% worth of all the newly mined Bitcoin supply, an amount that has increased every quarter this year. I can't wait for a few more halvings. Remind me again what happens to Bitcoin price when the supply gets cut in half, and then half again, and literally 1 company is buying more than is being create. The word UP is coming to my mind for some reason. - Companies like MicroStrategy ($425 Million) and Square ($50 Million) are choosing to hold Bitcoin as an asset over holding cash. Every few days now we are hearing about more companies choosing this path. - Paypal is bringing Bitcoin exposure to it's 350 Million customers world wide to be able to Buy/Sell/Hold and make purchases with Bitcoin. Regardless how many new customers this may bring in (hopefully the fees will be lowered once there is more competition) the effect of incorporating bitcoin into PayPal's wallet is pretty major. - Central Banks are taking a serious look into Central Bank Digital Currencies. 1 out of 5 central banks have said they plan to incorporate digital currencies within 1-3 years. I don't imagine the United States has a lot of incentive to move forward quickly with this, given the Dollar being the dominant world currency, but it's going to happen eventually. - Banks have been given permission by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to begin holding digital currencies. I imagine this is to allow for the digital dollar once this becomes the norm, but it also allows them to hold Bitcoin. Do you remember when banks like JPMorgan called Bitcoin a fraud just 3 years ago but now are predicting a $30,000 price for Bitcoin. Hey, even banks know that their direct competition is going to make them money. Speaking of money, who wants some Stimulus Money!?! I believe the answer to that should be anyone who wants to see another surge in the Bitcoin price. How many of you in the Crypto space added to your portfolio after receiving your stimulus check, or maybe even as soon as you heard that you were going to receive the stimulus check in the coming weeks. How much more did you make by choosing to invest some portion of it in Bitcoin versus holding it in those 0.01% super charged savings accounts we're all so excited about ;) Well, most believe a second stimulus check is likely to happen again at some point. Get ready for it! Supply and Demand, and also Inflation: My cash seems to be confused. It is going in the wrong direction! Remember the good old days. The average house used to cost $3,200. A loaf of bread cost 7 cents. Movie tickets were 10-15 cents. Clearly I wasn't alive back then, but I've heard that's how things used to be. Inflation is nasty and it's not stopping. I mean, it's cool and all that money can be magically printed out of thin air, but except for the stimulus checks, that's not going to help any of us. Printer goes brrrrr! Bitcoin has a cap of 21 Million coins. It's a simple statement, but the implications of this are why I chose Bitcoin. Every time someone buys bitcoin and chooses to hold it, guess what... sorry Charlie, it's no longer available for you to buy. You have to find some other foolish person who is willing to sell you their Bitcoin. I understand people trade the trends, and I'm all for that, this is TradingView after-all, but long term I want to be holding my Bitcoin, not getting rid of it. The inflation rate of Bitcoin is now approximately down to 1.8% and will become significantly better with each halving. Fun Fact. There are approximately 46.8 million millionaires. Only half of them would ever be able to own a single Bitcoin. Also, several million bitcoin are supposedly lost forever, and some individuals and companies are already holding multiple percentages of the bitcoin supply. I will again reemphasize there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin. Thanks for checking out some of my thoughts. I'm super excited about Bitcoin and hope there will be many more to join this community soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by zwickster