Get started

Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

AUD bulls support threatened AUD/USD extends its four-day losing streak into Tuesday, looking to threaten the September low of 0.7006 while wallowing in three-week lows near 0.7032. AUD futures net positions dropped from 8.9k to 3.8k as 10k+ short positions were opened. Growth in China is slower than expected hence Australian exports to the Asian country could be affected. This coupled with the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries threatens the strength of the AUDUSD. The expectations of a November rate cut and or bond-buying expansion emboldened after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Dr. Chris Kent and October meeting minutes suggested that additional easing is due on the cards. Further pressurizing the downside in the spot, the US dollar holds onto the overnight bounce, as hopes of a potential US fiscal stimulus deal pre-election fade despite the narrowing differences between the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. DXY net positions in the CFTC COT Weekly report turned positive last week hence we could expect a bullish dollar in the medium term, well at least until the US elections are over. Equity markets are currently on a risk on mode after erasing gains made earlier on Monday. Further concerns about the pandemic globally will keep pressure on the safe haven as more countries start to consider placing strict lockdown measures.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Weekly Review: Clueless Territory (Read for Fundamentals)Will have a week similar to the last one, irregular. We had a decent run in the last couple weeks, and now the market is starting to feel a bit clueless, why? - American elections are approaching - Disappointing news about vaccines development - Bad Brexit negotiations - Worse control of the virus than expected However, the underlying sentiment of the market is bullish. - 2021 & 2022 will be years of +20% earnings growth and this will guide the markets This week: - Technology earnings results (which will be decent and sustain the markets) - Stimulus package talks will advance Markets will move laterally keeping an eye on both earnings and stimulus package while waiting for the outcome of the elections, if anything they will end slightly up this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Regaining Momentum (Read for Fundamentals)Current situation in the markets is being better than I expected. - It may lose some momentum with the time. Markets are starting to price in a stimulus agreement in the US. - Which, honestly, is still far away to happen Relationship virus – markets is starting to stabilise In the short term, what really matters now is the stimulus agreement followed by the US elections. From Tuesday, we´ll get some macro news. American macro is outpacing the rest of countries, Europe is not doing too badly and the UK is lagging behind. I believe this week will not be as bullish as the last one and with the US elections, approaching the markets will start to flatten and be more cautious.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PepeMafia
ON THE VERGE OF BANKRUPTCY!FRANCE HAS THE HIGHEST DEBT LEVELS ON EARTH! ITALY HAS ARGUABLY THE SLOWEST GROWTH ON EARTH ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS! THEIR LARGEST BANKS REFLECT THIS! BOTH ARE APPROACHING THE KEY 5$ LIQUIDATION PRICE! OF COURSE, IT IS FAR FROM RIDICULOUS TO SUGGEST THESE BANKS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO FAIL, AS THEY POSE SYSTEMIC RISK TO THE ENTIRE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM! IN FACT, THE ACTIONS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK DURING 2020, ALL UNDER THE GUISE OF "PANDEMIC RELIEF", WERE MOST LIKELY AIMED AT SUPPORTING THESE FAILING ENTITIES BY ALLOWING THEM TO OFFLOAD THEIR GARBAGE ASSETS! THE REPO MARKET TROUBLES SEEN IN SEPTEMBER WERE LIKELY TIED TO A NUMBER OF BANKS, THESE 2 INCLUDED, FAILING TO RECEIVE OVERNIGHT LIQUIDITY DUE TO THE AWFUL QUALITY OF THEIR POSTED COLLATERAL! THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT OCCURRED IN JAPAN, THE CENTRAL BANK SUPPORTED FINANCIAL ENTITIES WITH ZERO CHANCE OF EVERY BEING PROFITABLE, CREATING THE INFAMOUS "ZOMBIE COMPANIES"! THEY CONTINUED TO OPERATE, BUT THEIR SHARE PRICES NEVER RECOVERED AS THEY ESSENTIALLY HAD NO PROFITS TO PAY OUT! DO NOT BUY STOCK FROM SMART MONEY THAT SEES THE RISK AND IS EITHER SHORT SELLING OR JUMPING SHIP!
EURONEXT:GLE
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
2
HYPERINFLATION UPDATE!TURKEY'S CURRENCY IS UNDERGOING A CLASSIC PROCESS OF DESTRUCTION! CONTINUAL FISCAL DEFICITS AND BANK CREDIT EXPANSION (FUELED BY ARTIFICIALLY SUPPRESSED GLOBAL INTEREST RATES) HAVE PROVIDED AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF CURRENCY, WHILE WAR, CORRUPTION, A GLOBAL DEPRESSION AND MANY DOMESTIC/INTERNATIONAL FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO DIMINISHING DEMAND FOR THE TURKISH LIRA! AS LIRAS ARE SOLD FOR ASSETS AND OTHER CURRENCIES (I.E. AS DEMAND FOR THE LIRA FALLS), MONEY VELOCITY INCREASES, LEADING TO RISING PRICES AND AN EROSION OF THE LIRA'S PURCHASING POWER! WITHIN A FEW YEARS, ONCE THE LIRA HAS BEEN COMPLETELY HYPER-INFLATED AND TURKEY HAS SUFFERED A COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE THE LIKES OF VENEZUELA AND LEBANON RECENTLY, YOU WILL HEAR FROM KEYNESIANS AND OTHER PSEUDO-EXPERTS THAT SOME ARBITRARY FACTOR WAS FUNDAMENTALLY RESPONSIBLE! DO NOT BE FOOLED, THE CAUSE OF ANY FALLING EXCHANGE RATE IS INFLATION, AN INCREASING SUPPLY OF CURRENCY! THE NEXT STEP IN THIS PROCESS OF CURRENCY DESTRUCTION IS ACCELERATING CONSUMER GOODS PRICE INFLATION! THESE NUMBERS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE DISTORTED BY THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT AND WILL THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT TO TRULY MEASURE! THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET WILL SEE EXTREME VOLATILITY AND AN WOULD BE A GOOD PLAY IF IT EXISTED! PRAY FOR THE PEOPLE OF TURKEY! PRAY FOR AN END TO GLOBAL FASCISM!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
UNDERSTAND MACRO-FINANCE!WHILE ALL PRICES HAVE RISEN SINCE 1913 (THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE), SOME HAVE DONE SO MORE THAN OTHERS! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO LARGE AND COMPLEX THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACE THE ACTUAL SIZE OF THE ENTIRE MONEY SUPPLY ( M3 )! WHEN IT COMES TO ESTIMATION, YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS ANY EXPERT'S! THE ONLY WAY TO DETERMINE IF M3 IS RISING OR FALLING IS BY LOOKING AT THE PRICE OF OIL , THE PRICE OF THE 1-MONTH TREASURY BILL AND THE YIELD CURVE, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THERE WAS A DEFLATIONARY PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF 2020! STOCKS, WHICH ARE THE MOST FINANCIALIZED ASSET CLASS, HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PRICE, BECAUSE MUCH OF THE CREDIT THAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM CREATES BIDS UP THEIR PRICE BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE! COPPER AND OIL , THE PRICES OF WHICH ARE MUCH MORE IMPACTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS WITHIN THE REAL ECONOMY, HAVE BARELY MOVED IN COMPARISON AND REFLECT THE LACK OF REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE PAST HALF CENTURY! GOLD , FOR ANYONE WHO CONSIDERS ITS PRICE EVEN REMOTELY ELEVATED, HAS BARELY EVEN KEPT UP WITH THE INCREASE IN M2 (WHICH INCLUDES PHYSICAL CURRENCY, CHEQUING ACCOUNTS AND SOME SAVINGS ACCOUNTS). THROUGHOUT HISTORY, THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF GOLD HAS ALWAYS EVENTUALLY MATCHED THE TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY, AND THEREFORE THE PRICE OF GOLD MUST INCREASE BY SEVERAL TIMES EVEN FROM HERE TO BE VALUED CORRECTLY!
TVC:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Weekly Review: Remaining Bearish (Read for Fundamentals) Let´s order the weekly ideas: 1. Executive committee of the ECB will speak on Monday, maybe give some new updates about negative interest rates 2. Tuesday is about confidence indicators which I expect them to fall 3. Rest of the week is mostly about US employment and first debate on Wednesday between Biden and Trump Regarding the markets, new outbreaks have put the recovery on hold and the consumer sentiment is being affected and is becoming a warning factor for the markets in the short-term. Moreover, the vaccine discovery has been delayed. Facing the week, we have a weak market where none of the events of the short-term has the potential to turn around the bearish sentiment. - Advise to take a short position for the week. (Follow me for more weekly analyses and how to position your market portfolio regarding the upcoming elections)
SP:SPXShort
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Healthy Correction Needed (Read for Fundamentals)I believe this recent correction in the markets is more of an eventual profit taking event rather than a structural adjustment. The technology sector still offers growth potential in the medium term. It is logic and healthy for the market to correct after such a strong bull run. Looking forward into the new week: 1.Central bank meetings No change in interest rates expected, will maintain dovish position. 2.Indicators In macro terms, indicators will keep recovering. Lateral week is expected consolidating the levels from previous weeks. In medium term, slightly more bullish position despite big volatility also being expected.
SP:SPXLong
by PepeMafia