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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

HYPERINFLATION UPDATE!TURKEY'S CURRENCY IS UNDERGOING A CLASSIC PROCESS OF DESTRUCTION! CONTINUAL FISCAL DEFICITS AND BANK CREDIT EXPANSION (FUELED BY ARTIFICIALLY SUPPRESSED GLOBAL INTEREST RATES) HAVE PROVIDED AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF CURRENCY, WHILE WAR, CORRUPTION, A GLOBAL DEPRESSION AND MANY DOMESTIC/INTERNATIONAL FACTORS HAVE LEAD TO DIMINISHING DEMAND FOR THE TURKISH LIRA! AS LIRAS ARE SOLD FOR ASSETS AND OTHER CURRENCIES (I.E. AS DEMAND FOR THE LIRA FALLS), MONEY VELOCITY INCREASES, LEADING TO RISING PRICES AND AN EROSION OF THE LIRA'S PURCHASING POWER! WITHIN A FEW YEARS, ONCE THE LIRA HAS BEEN COMPLETELY HYPER-INFLATED AND TURKEY HAS SUFFERED A COMPLETE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE THE LIKES OF VENEZUELA AND LEBANON RECENTLY, YOU WILL HEAR FROM KEYNESIANS AND OTHER PSEUDO-EXPERTS THAT SOME ARBITRARY FACTOR WAS FUNDAMENTALLY RESPONSIBLE! DO NOT BE FOOLED, THE CAUSE OF ANY FALLING EXCHANGE RATE IS INFLATION, AN INCREASING SUPPLY OF CURRENCY! THE NEXT STEP IN THIS PROCESS OF CURRENCY DESTRUCTION IS ACCELERATING CONSUMER GOODS PRICE INFLATION! THESE NUMBERS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE DISTORTED BY THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT AND WILL THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT TO TRULY MEASURE! THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET WILL SEE EXTREME VOLATILITY AND AN WOULD BE A GOOD PLAY IF IT EXISTED! PRAY FOR THE PEOPLE OF TURKEY! PRAY FOR AN END TO GLOBAL FASCISM!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
UNDERSTAND MACRO-FINANCE!WHILE ALL PRICES HAVE RISEN SINCE 1913 (THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE), SOME HAVE DONE SO MORE THAN OTHERS! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO LARGE AND COMPLEX THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACE THE ACTUAL SIZE OF THE ENTIRE MONEY SUPPLY ( M3 )! WHEN IT COMES TO ESTIMATION, YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS ANY EXPERT'S! THE ONLY WAY TO DETERMINE IF M3 IS RISING OR FALLING IS BY LOOKING AT THE PRICE OF OIL , THE PRICE OF THE 1-MONTH TREASURY BILL AND THE YIELD CURVE, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THERE WAS A DEFLATIONARY PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF 2020! STOCKS, WHICH ARE THE MOST FINANCIALIZED ASSET CLASS, HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PRICE, BECAUSE MUCH OF THE CREDIT THAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM CREATES BIDS UP THEIR PRICE BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE! COPPER AND OIL , THE PRICES OF WHICH ARE MUCH MORE IMPACTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS WITHIN THE REAL ECONOMY, HAVE BARELY MOVED IN COMPARISON AND REFLECT THE LACK OF REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE PAST HALF CENTURY! GOLD , FOR ANYONE WHO CONSIDERS ITS PRICE EVEN REMOTELY ELEVATED, HAS BARELY EVEN KEPT UP WITH THE INCREASE IN M2 (WHICH INCLUDES PHYSICAL CURRENCY, CHEQUING ACCOUNTS AND SOME SAVINGS ACCOUNTS). THROUGHOUT HISTORY, THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF GOLD HAS ALWAYS EVENTUALLY MATCHED THE TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY, AND THEREFORE THE PRICE OF GOLD MUST INCREASE BY SEVERAL TIMES EVEN FROM HERE TO BE VALUED CORRECTLY!
TVC:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Weekly Review: Remaining Bearish (Read for Fundamentals) Let´s order the weekly ideas: 1. Executive committee of the ECB will speak on Monday, maybe give some new updates about negative interest rates 2. Tuesday is about confidence indicators which I expect them to fall 3. Rest of the week is mostly about US employment and first debate on Wednesday between Biden and Trump Regarding the markets, new outbreaks have put the recovery on hold and the consumer sentiment is being affected and is becoming a warning factor for the markets in the short-term. Moreover, the vaccine discovery has been delayed. Facing the week, we have a weak market where none of the events of the short-term has the potential to turn around the bearish sentiment. - Advise to take a short position for the week. (Follow me for more weekly analyses and how to position your market portfolio regarding the upcoming elections)
SP:SPXShort
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Healthy Correction Needed (Read for Fundamentals)I believe this recent correction in the markets is more of an eventual profit taking event rather than a structural adjustment. The technology sector still offers growth potential in the medium term. It is logic and healthy for the market to correct after such a strong bull run. Looking forward into the new week: 1.Central bank meetings No change in interest rates expected, will maintain dovish position. 2.Indicators In macro terms, indicators will keep recovering. Lateral week is expected consolidating the levels from previous weeks. In medium term, slightly more bullish position despite big volatility also being expected.
SP:SPXLong
by PepeMafia
Weekly Review: Bullish Inertia Remains (Read for Fundamentals)Bullish sentiment remains in the markets, despite some noise in the background. Where to look at: - Vaccine (expected to be released earlier than expected) o Can surprise positively - China – USA o Actual situation is not that tense, which may change - Technology (it has changed more into safe heaven rather a rick sector) o Salesforce provided good guidance PMIs and Job data to watch out for this week. - These indicators will manifest USA will recover employment quicker but it will take more time to Europe Overall, the markets will be more active because of the return from holidays and if we see good job data and PMIs, the markets can be in for another bullish week.
SP:SPXLong
by PepeMafia