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EURNZD Double bottom BreakoutThe idea here is about Forex: Euro/New Zealand Dollar (EURNZD). My view is bullish short term for the above mentioned pair due to the below observed technical factors. Points as per TA on a Weekly Chart: 1. Double Bottom pattern completed and neckline broken on weekly chart and the target goes the same distance as the height of the pattern, up from the neckline as below: 2. Broken out of downtrend long back with false breakout and breakdown on weekly chart as below: 3. Support Established on 200 EMA as below : 4. Possible Butterfly pattern CD leg under formation and min Fibonacci distance from XD is 1.272 as below which can is considered as future target price: 5. Trading above 20 & 200 EMA on Daily chart. 6. Kumo Twist & Breakout on a daily chart is Strong and on weekly kumo twist is neutral & Kumo breakout is currently consolidating. 7. RSI is at 73.14 on a daily and 66.31 on weekly chart at the time of publishing. 8. MACD way above signal line on weekly & daily chart. 9. Hull Moving Average & other Moving average is a strong Buy Signal on Daily, Weekly & monthly chart. 10. ADX is at 54.46 on daily chart (ADX Value above 50 is considered as very strong trend) & 13.19 on weekly chart (ADX value below 25 is considered as absent or weak trend). 11. Volume Spike in weekly chart signals strong Momentum. Projected targets provided in chart. Stop Loss: provided in Chart. Note: Please bear with me if there is anything which I might have missed. Since, I am publishing my first TA on Forex. Disclaimer: “The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment”. Do you like my TA & ideas!! Want to keep yourself updated with current market action? Then don’t forget boost & to subscribe for more analysis. Do leave your valuable feedback & comments for any improvisations. Cheers.
Long
by Tron029
2
This is the chart that I use to trade the NASDAQ100 CFDs.I use hourly range charts to analyse the distribution of the market. Range charts make it easier to see the extremes in the chart. I also look at the time and the range of the hour. Statistically, 61.8% time market should range. Also, the market should stay in the same range 61.8% until the next day or session. Draw your volume profile. Mark the time of the day. Price moves away from the mean as well as moves toward the mean. That is the characteristic of a normal distribution.
NEducation
by rangika_ailapperuma
1
Should You Buy Gold? Yes, But Not Yet! Check It OutHello there! I want to be detailed on Gold in this analysis. I just decide to post an idea about it because I discovered something in the H4 timeframe that looks different from the other timeframes like the H1, 1D, 1W, and even the 1M, which can make some traders make the wrong decision going against the next market move. But first, I want to show you something in the monthly timeframe chart, then I will post the H4 chart to see what could happen when the Gold market opens. Look at the monthly analysis well so that you can understand what is going on now and what could happen next in the Gold market currently. Monthly Timeframe In the monthly chart above, you can see that the Gold market has rejected the strong support level by forming a small bullish pin bar at the key support area. Warning: you must be careful here if you are deciding to sell Gold. The pin bar is not a classic kind though, it can have a bullish effect on the Gold price movement in the coming week. As a result, be very careful. Why? It's because ofe the context where the pin bar candlestick has appeared matters! Daily Timeframe In the daily timeframe, an engulfing candle, but not so strong, has formed at the key support level area, signaling the reversal to the upside. So, the Monday candle could close with a "wick below". H4 Timeframe In the H4 timeframe, there is a tendency for the price to experience a short-term bearishness, to reverse to the support level, creating a "W" or double top pattern before completely taking a rally to the upside. This means we can make sell trade decisions here and exit close to the support, not exactly at the support level though. Why the bearishness? The inside bars have formed at the key resistance level, showing a loss of momentum in the bulls of Finally, the timeframe to pay much attention to is H4 for now because a bearish pin bar has formed in it. Take note of this and the stochastic seems to be going bearish, moving away from the overbought zone
TVC:GOLDLong
by OraclePips
1
A traders' week ahead playbook - Jackson Hole in the mix The event risk this week is really centred on Jay Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole forum (Sat 00:00AEST), with other global data points unlikely to promote as much of a reaction – Powell should keep the option of a 75bp hike at the 21 Sept FOMC meeting firmly on the table, but offer the flexibility to go 50bp if we do see sufficient softening in the labour market in the US payrolls (NFP) report (2 Sept) and the pace of headline CPI inflation (13 Sept) falls again in the August read. The prospect of acknowledging future makers that could lead to the Fed cutting rates will not be present – the market would be highly surprised if they did hear this. As it stands, the market prices 61bp of hikes from the Fed in the Sept FOMC meeting, therefore leaning closer to a 50bp hike – it would not surprise to see this pricing between 60-65bp by the end of the coming week - Powell will want to give the Fed maximum flexibility and optionality until they know the NFP and CPI prints. For this week, it's likely less about the known event risks and keeping it thematic - reacting to flows from a targeted group of markets. 5 key markets that could influence cross-asset volatility this week: • The USD – notably USDCNH • EU Nat Gas & German Electricity prices • US 5 & 10-year real rates (for those on TradingView use the code - TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE) • US volatility index – the VIX index • Fed balance sheet - A renewed belief that QT will ramp up Specifically, EU Nat Gas (NG) prices are front of mind – EUR and EU equity index traders should watch this closely – on Friday we saw the NG price trade to EUR262.78 – a new high in this bull trend and continues to home in on EUR300. We see German ‘baseload’ electricity prices moving exponentially and again the further this rises, the worse economics in Europe will be into the next few months. News that Gazprom is to close the Nord Stream pipeline between 31 Aug and 2 Sept for maintenance has traders worried that the shutdown may be extended and is a EUR negative. Germany has done a decent job of stockpiling gas for the winter, but the market is nervous. Fed balance sheet dynamics We also watch the Fed’s balance sheet dynamic – like many I have been focused on excess reserves passed to the Fed from US commercial banks – reserves have been on the rise, and by more than the Fed has been reducing its assets via QT - this better liquidity backdrop has been well correlated with risky assets. All the focus is on the Fed ready to ramp up the pace of reduction in the US Treasuries and potentially mortgages it holds on the asset side of the balance sheet – there is little doubt that these dynamics are boosting the USD. And what a week I was for the USD – EU NG, Fed liquidity dynamics aside, a 1.4% move higher in USDCNH above 6.8300, all contributing in boosting the USD – with the PBoC likely cutting the 1- & 5-year Prime rate (11:15 AEST) by 10bp a piece, we watch USDCNH – while a cut is priced, an upside break of 6.85 would impact broad markets and should be on the radar. High beta FX was carted out last week, with USDZAR and NZDUSD leading the charge. AUDUSD gets prime time on the radar, and while 1-week implied volatility is not overly punchy (at 11.75%) and pricing the downside on the week into 0.6870 - the technicals are looking weak, with Friday close just holding the 5 August swing. USDJPY has been a crowd favourite too, and it feels like this could squeeze into 138.00/20 before I have a greater conviction on fading the move. EURUSD sits on the 61.8% fibo of the July-Aug rally and parity is a whisker away – a fresh push higher in EU NG takes EURUSD through parity, and impacts the GER40, with funds further shying away from EU exposure. We do get some data points in Europe to focus on – such as S&P global manufacturing PMI (Tue 18:00 AEST) and consumer confidence (Wed 00:00 AEST), but the EUR should take its cue from energy. GBPUSD looks weak and the obvious level is the 14 July low of 1.1760 – rates markets price 56bp of further hikes from the BoE in the 15 Sept BoE meeting, and this week's data (again we see S&P global manufacturing PMI) may see traders’ massage that pricing. UK growth rates weigh on the GBP, and the market feels the UK may have crossed the Rubicon, to the point where high inflation becomes less supportive of a currency and impacts growth through the feedback loop to social channels. If the USD is to find further form – driven by the US exceptionalism story, rising 2yr Treasuries and reduced liquidity from the Fed’s balance sheet, then other risky assets should head lower this coming week. BBBY aside, the risk ‘canary in the coalmine’ plays are looking vulnerable – ARKK, crypto, SPAC and IPO index, to names a few. Implied vol is still sanguine, with our US volatility index making a move into 24.3% on Friday but not at levels indicative of greater S&P500 hedging demand. With options expiry now passed, we can watch (and/or trade) this index but the higher this goes the greater the opportunity to trade from the short side, as liquidity comes out of the market, the buyers stand aside, and cross-market correlations rise. The momentum is to the downside in US500 and NAS100, although I am still waiting on a bearish MA crossover (3EMA < 8 EMA). A break of 4203 would put 4065 on the table. With so many turning bearish, a renewed push into 4340 would be the pian trade. I favour the downside tactically, but as always holding an open mind.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
GBPNZD-- Final position taken; 3 of 4 ideas currently activeHey guys, I recently entered into 2 long term trading positions on GBPNZD. And, as I usually do, I took a couple scalping positions as I monitored the market waiting for those two positions to initiate. You can find the other publishings down below in the related ideas section. Also, this is a scalp trade in my opinion, which I discussed my thoughts on these types of positions on one of those other publishings i just mentioned, so be sure to check that out if it sounds interesting to you. Like, comment, and subscribe to the channel for more content on foreign exchange, United States economics, and bitcoin trading ideas. As always, happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
GBPNZD-- Skillset demo on 1H TF scalp trade (6:1 RR)I do not typically entertain intricate/unreliable unit analysis using small timeframes. This is simply because "The closer you look, the less predictable the behavior becomes". I will not be referring to the much more imperative timeframe analysis' (1W, 1M, etc.) that I have drawn up (and partly visible) regarding the GBPNZD on this posting, not sorry. Nevertheless, I do feel compelled to demonstrate that it is possible for market participants to identify and react to small timeframe price action and produce a net gain.. Even if the risk is taken using a data set analysis done on what has been proven an extremely unreliable keynote of units; those being the 1H & smaller timeframes. How, you ask? Well, first lets just be completely clear: In my experiences, price closes should not be considered or reacted to on any units if they are smaller than a 4H unit. A trade made on a small timeframe is called a "scalp", and though many people may disagree with me here, I am calling this trade idea on the 1H timeframe a "scalp" trade.. The first thing we should notice when looking at the chart shown above is the strong reaction to the price area of 1.878 (+/-), & a clean impulse, followed by the consolidation of price movement-- this is where we are currently trading. Although many traders prefer to utilize swing levels (lol) when drawing Fibonacci retracements, I have found my success in the markets as well as confluence with other types of indicators and comparable analysis' when I retrace "clean impulses", or 3+ green or red candles in a row (Plus, the candles on either side of the clean impulse), as opposed to retracing full swings. A clear example of this approach is well demonstrated on this publishing. Please let me know in the comments if you would like more information on how I use Fibonacci theory to find success in extracting value from a market. One of the many first principles I always apply when scalp trading is "the target is the pullback", which is what I am confident is taking place on GBPNZD as I write this. Although there is PLENTY of potential for price to hit levels lower than the .618 retracement level, the reduction of risk and security of net gain takes place then (immediately), which is much earlier and more conservative than if I was taking a risk while applying a higher unit analysis and data set. This is how you can net gain in such unpredictable data sets. After all, it is the target... Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
2