CGC Likely To Lose $15 Support#CGC #canopygrowthcorp – Canopy closed last week just above a support level(blue line) that stems back to the price peak of $14.39 seen in November 2016. The most recent test of this level prior to Friday’s close was in November of 2019 which came after CGC lost -73% from a high of $52.74 in April 2019. Price bounced 80% off of support in November 2019 to a high of $25.97 in January of this year before retreating again and falling -40% to current levels.
In general, the more times price tests a support level the more likely it is to fail, so the fact that CGC is testing this level again after a recent bounce from it this past November is not a good sign. The recent decline in price over the past two weeks can be attributed to overall equity market weakness due to coronavirus fears which is leading to a slowdown in total global economic activity, as well as CGC’s recent round of layoffs which saw 500 jobs lost with the closure of two facilities, and the shelving of plans for another facility which was in the works.
The Price Percent Oscillator below the chart is trending below its midline(0 level) and rolling over which indicates that price has negative momentum. The green PPO line is close to crossing below its purple signal line which is a negative crossover and indication that a further decline in price is likely as negative momentum increases.
Based on the current price trend and global market selloff, the probability of CGC losing support at $15 is high which may result in a further -50% decline to sub $10 and back to levels not seen since 2017. Target area is $5-$10 shown in yellow.
Seeing as how CGC is the cannabis sector leader by market capitalization we can expect to see price weakness here spill over into the rest of the sector as traders look to CGC for signs of overall sector health.
CGC
CGC going into it's capitulation phaseI'm sorry, but it's starting to look that way. We'll probably bounce when we get under the recent lows, but I wouldn't stay long in this. Target could be 5 dollars (or lower!) - backtest of trendline is the target (for me). Remember, Amazon lost 90 percent of it's value ($110 to $5.50) when the market popped in 1999. This is all too common in stock bubbles. Once it stabilizes,bottoms, and everyone hates CGC - it's time to accumulate and hold for a LONG time :)
Good Luck!
CGC Monthly Reversal Candle Setup#CGC -#CGC Canopy Growth Corp has created a bearish reversal pattern on the monthly chart that is similar to an Evening Star Reversal pattern. The current reversal pattern doesn’t fulfill the requirements to be a true Evening Star Reversal due to it not occurring at the top of an uptrend in price, but it could be a signal of downtrend continuation, especially when taking in to account the recent bearishness across all markets over Covid19 fear and the impacts that the virus is having on local economies and the global supply chain.
Evening Star Reversals are when a move up in price(candle 1), is followed by a doji/spinning top candle(2) followed by a move down on candle 3 that retraces at least 50% of the first candle in the three candle pattern. This pattern shows traders initially are bullish on candle 1 by pushing price higher, then become indecisive on candle 2 which creates upper and lower wicks of equal length with a monthly close near the monthly open which creates a small candle body. On candle 3 they take price decisively lower and retrace half of the pattern move.
While this candle pattern setup is bearish, in needs confirmation on the next candle via a price move below the low made on candle 3. In CGC’s case, a monthly close in March below $18.78 would be pattern confirmation and likely mean more downside for price going forward.
The PPO and RSI indicators below the chart are also showing negative price trend and momentum. The PPO is in a negative cross and declining with a fresh PPO line(green) move below the 0 level which indicates a negative trend for price. The RSI is also in a negative cross and declining with the RSI line colored purple and declining below its signal line(white). The RSI is also below the 50 level with a purple shaded background which indicate a negative momentum trend behind price.
CGC Support TestCanopy Growth Corp is down roughly -15% on the trading week as global fears over Covid19 have finally gripped markets after a month of essentially dismissing the potential negative economic impacts.
CGC is currently trading within a parallel channel which began forming in late 2019, with an upper resistance level of $22.50 and a lower support level of $17.80. Yesterday saw traders close price just above the lower support level, or the bottom of the parallel range, which is an important level to watch in Fridays trading. A hold above the lower support line would indicate that bulls are still attempting to keep price in a consolidation range, while a close below the lower support level would indicate that bulls are losing the upper hand and becoming more fearful of Covid19's potential impact on economic activity across all sectors.
Given the severity of the market decline this week with indices such as the DOW Jones having its worst 1-day decline in history yesterday, its fastest 10% decline ever, as well as its worst 6-day performance since 1928(just before the Great Depression), its likely that traders will be unwilling to buy the dip in equities and hold stocks over the weekend.
Should traders fail to hold CGC above the lower range of the orange channel today, the next likely target is a retest of November 2019's low of $13.81 shown in blue.
Both indicators below the chart are showing negative momentum and trend behind price with the PPO in a bearish crossover and now moving below the centerline, as well as the RSI in a decline and also below its centerline as well.
Current view is bearish due to the overall fear gripping markets right now and CGC's position within the channel after yesterdays close.
CGC Gap FillCanpoy Growth Corp's price filled the gap(blue dashed lines) that was created on February 13th -14th with a close today of $20.30, a gap fill that was anticipated after price failed to move higher last week and back into the rising trend channel(orange lines). Today's price move can mostly be attributed to the overall selloff in global equities last night into today over Covid19 fears, but likely would have traded lower and filled the gap even without the overall market decline.
The key level to watch now that the gap has been filled is the last low made before price attempted to regain the uptrend channel, the low being $18.65 indicated by the yellow line. That yellow line stems from the low made on February 11th and was the last level of price demand before price moved higher, ultimately stalling out at the lower line of the uptrend channel which acted as resistance rather than the support level it had been previously during the uptrend. In technical analysis, previous levels of price support become price resistance once they are violated to the downside.
A move below the yellow line would create a pattern of lower lows and lower highs in price after the failed attempt to regain the uptrend channel and could be viewed as a return to a negative price trend. For now price remains neutral and will remain so until/unless price moves below the yellow line, at which point a bearish case can be made for price. A move above last weeks highs would be bullish, but looks unlikely as long as global traders are being spooked by Covid19 and its potential short and intermediate-term affect on global supply chains.
CGC - cautionGapped down today below strong support at 21.50. Possibly it retests that area and then comes down a lot further, especially if the general markets follow a similar trajectory. 15.50 area would fill the gap from November 19.
Good luck!
CGC - DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS W/ WEEKLY CONSIDERATION - STOCKSHere is one for the cannabis stock bros. If you look at CGC on the WEEKLY it looks a bit cleaner. I think we have a 'failure to continue trend' or a "hold of support' signal here. Green line is where I want price to bounce next. Doesn't mean it has to. The boys could push it lower of course, but its not a bad spot to try and long this, in my opinion. My stop loss would be at the previous lower low depending on how heavy I entered. I would layer some orders around/below the green line. If you don't have the guts to hold to lower lows then get out at the first red line or (less desirably) somewhere in between the two red lines. No shame in doing so. Profits would be the above orange lines.
Good luck out there.
Clearly NOT financial advice.
CGC equillibriumTrading in a clear equillibrium, I am going to try and buy at the 100MA - which would close the local gap, then sell at the top of the current range. Trailing stop loss just outside the lines, anticipating a potential gap close further down.
CGC Probable Higher Low| Structural Resistance to Break!Evening Traders,
Today’s update will be on CGC, clear levels to watch to dictate the trend in coming weeks/months
Points to consider,
- Trend respecting .618 Fibonacci
- Structural resistance to break
- MA’s holding as support
- RSI respecting support
- Stochastics neutral
- Volume below average
CGC has respected its Fibonacci level, .618, signalling buy pressure coming in from structural resistance. A level yet to break will negate the bearish trend in CGC if a break and close above structural resistance comes to fruition.
The Moving Averages is holding true as support, must remain when structural resistance is broken.
The RSI is respecting its support signalling that the relative strength at current time is neutral; this is same with the stochastics.
Volume is clearly below average, must increase if market structure is to be negated
Overall, in my opinion, CGC has a clear resistance to break which will negate the bearish trend by putting in a higher high.
Till then the macro bear trend is still intact
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“When you learn to let go of the need to be right, being wrong gradually lose its power to disturb you.”
― Yvan Byeajee
Ascending Triangle, is Canopy trading in a hidden pattern?There's also merit for a another Inverse H&S to play out here, after a few more trading days next week we may see the shoulder continue to develop or a retest of the bottom upward sloping line of the Ascending Triangle, which would also negate the inverse H&S narrative, but the bottom of the ascending triangle could still hold & result in a bullish outcome, keep in mind these patterns have a tendency to finish roughly 70% to 80% way through the pattern in either direction frequently.
Key Takeaways
An inverse head and shoulders is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends
An inverse head and shoulders pattern, upon completion, signals a bull market
Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline.
An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs, and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside. Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since the price will typically breakout in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming.
Key Takeaways
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically breakout of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle. Although, this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
CGC GapCGC created a gap in price last week when it made the jump back above $20 and has so far failed to move back above a previous support line(orange) which is now acting as resistance. Gaps tend to be filled in charts so the longer price fails to move back above the orange line, the greater the likelihood that the gap will be filled which means price will likely retreat back down toward $20 to close the gap.
Cannabis Stocks / Should Investors Buy Canopy Growth in 2020 ? It's Now Abundantly Clear: Canopy Growth Is in a Different League From Aurora Cannabis.
The two Canadian cannabis companies' latest quarterly results prove it.
Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) lead the industry in production capacity.
They both claim the highest market shares in the Canadian adult-use recreational marijuana market.
The two companies reported their latest quarterly results last week.
Canopy Growth announced results that were much better than expected.
And it's now abundantly clear that Canopy Growth is in a different league from Aurora.(Source:The Motley Fool)
Disclaimer:
We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature,
and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
Descending Triangle.This is the "exact" same chart from the other day but on a 6 month line chart; which only shows the daily "closing price" as opposed to the 1 year time frame candle chart I posted on Feb 6th which shows more trades.
Notice where the rejection point came into play on Canopy's parabolic price move on Friday? The downward sloping trendline of the descending triangle seems to be in play, and the sell volume seems incredibly bearish.
Every time Canopy's RSI gets this high we see a dump in the share price as well.
The neckline area of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern which called the temporary bottom seems to be holding as support for the time being, interesting.
CGC ready to get high?Came right to the resistance line this morning. If we can get a solid close over 24.50 on the daily chart, I think minimum is the gap target of $29.50-30.
SPY has to cooperate though. If the market starts to fall, the lower trendline may be in play. It's hard to say which will happen right now
Be careful and good luck
Aurora Cannabis - Godly swing trade setupThis might be a long analysis but let me explain why this stock will go higher than Seth Rogan on 4/20.
The stock market and the cryptocurrency markets continue to trend up and we are starting to see companies in all sectors start to break out. This stock is an amazing opportunity because it recently dropped 17% to 1.65 based on FUD. Do not let FUD news influence your judgement, let the TA influence your judgement. Aurora is fundamentally stable and the growth of cannabis is inevitable due to Millennials and Generation Z. This company is on a secular uptrend but it has recently followed the rest of the cannabis stocks such as CGC on the way down. But it's gone down far more than I believe is reasonable. Do not fool yourself to think that it's the company doing really bad, it's not doing bad enough for this to disregard supply and demand, its the sector going down. It's not sustainable for this sector to continue a downtrend in the middle of a bull market. A lot of sectors have already curved out of the pullback phase and began their uptrend. With that being said, the possibility of a swift bounce to $4 in the short term is very likely. Another aspect we need to look at is the triple top at $10. I believe if the stock curves up to 4$, then the momentum should push price beck up to the triple top, which will certainly be broken(similar to the tesla trend). This stock should swing to $15-20.
Let's get into some indicators:
30 week moving average: normally I look for the stock to be crossing the MA for me to be sure about a reversal but the stock fell so sharply that it skewed the 30 and 50 week MA's. They do NOT hold relevance at this moment in time. It will very soon when the stock is trading at around 4$ and then we should start seeing a cross on the 30 week MA, instead of this MA that looks scary.
RSI: the RSI is bottomed out, I use 30 with a 30 MA on mine because I dont like using the 14 RSI, I think it caps you out too soon. According to the RSI we have a massive amount of room for momentum. You can call me cynical but I've been doing this for a while and I know this stock has enough momentum for a swing to $15-20.
MACD: we had a bullish cross on the MACD on the week of January 13th.
Volume: we can see the bottom being caught by large volume. The bulls are here, we're buying the support level. If you zoom in to the daily time frame you will also spot an inverse head and shoulders pattern that's still holding even after the recent 17% drop.
Horizontal Support: we're holding a massive support level from 1.30-2.00 that's relevant from OCT of 2016 to OCT of 2017.
So to wrap things up, we have several bullish indicators and we know there was a massive influx of volume on the triple top level around $7-10 and a massive support level at $1.30-2.00 from 2016. We're in a bull market and the company is not doing bad. Aurora will shoot up.
CGC Loses UptrendCGC has fallen out of its uptrend channel(orange lines) and has returned to a previous consolidation range(blue lines). The trend for now has shifted back to neutral as long as price is within the blue lines; a break back above the blue channel would be bullish, a break below bearish. The PPO is indicating a negative short-term trend with the green PPO line declining below its purple signal line. Worth noting is that the green PPO line is close to crossing below the centerline which would indicate a more substantial downtrend should the PPO continue to fall below the centerline. For now, the lower blue line near $17.50 is the level to watch for support, a move below that line would shift the trend to bearish.
CGC Trendline FailCGC saw an open and close yesterday below the lower support line of a rising channel(orange lines). Using a measured move on a trendline break, price could potentially see a -25% decline which would roughly equal a -$5.50 loss taking price back down near $16. Keeping an eye on this one today as CGC tends to dictate prices for the entire cannabis sector.
QQQ: trading review & tomorrow planTomorrow I will not open any position, just try to close what I bought today.
CGC Testing Channel SupportCGC is testing the lower support line of a rising channel, and for now is slightly below it. A close today above the trendline would keep price leaning bullish whiule a close below would indicate a potential loss of upward momentum. Lower level to watch for support is near $18(yellow line); a close below that level going forward would be considered bearish.
Bull break for ACBWe have a bull break and a bullish confirmation. Indicators at sweet spots, though smaller time frames indicate a possible pull pack to retest $2, gather strength and break to the upside of the 50MA daily. It has been almost 10 months since ACB has been riding above its 50 day line. We have golden crosses on the EMA charts and the smaller moving averages, daily charts show increasing bull volume.
Bulls now need to keep that volume pumping, and keep that price above $2.
There is currently 17.03% short float, translating to 180M shares short. That would make one hell of a short squeeze, bleeding right into my pockets.
Trade entered at $2.06
Stop just below $1.90
Larger time frames show good underlying strength, and recent consolidation has packed a lot of energy. If bulls manage to release this energy to the upside, the bears will finally be bleeding money back into our pockets.
It is my honest believe that now is the time to go LONG ACB. We only need to be very carefull when CGC releases its likely disastrous earnings this month. Fear is still our biggest foe, and we need very little of it to see it rain on the parade.
Short and longer term targets marked on chart.
Yalla! Let's go!
