CGC
CGC support is now resistanceEven though APHA's results gave the sector a boost, CGC may have more downside ahead. With all the insecurities around this company's plans and direction, and a potential disastrous earnings call coming up, it is my best bet to stay away from CGC until it at starts posting higher highs.
Levels on watch, trade safe!
Long CGCExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
$OGI Showing Signs of a Bottom Despite Continued Sector Rout$OGI has held the 200DMA as support the last two trading sessions & on July 15th. Hammer candle was put in on 7/29 followed by a bullish engulfing signal today.
OGI current trades at a 10x P/E 2019 revenue and a 3-4x P/E on FY2020 revenue estimates. We see several near-term catalysts for $OGI and feel the stock will benefit immensely once the current industry chaos settles down (CTST, APHA, HEXO, etc)
The company announced July 15th, it developed a Rapid-Onset Nano-Emulsification Technology for Cannabis Beverages with an initial onset of 10-15 mins vs 60-90 mins on average. The company also clearly told the market they're actively seeking a beverage partner & is for sale.
Management has proven they can execute with positive adjusted EBITDA 4x Qs in a row, minimal dilution to shareholders vs peers, disciplined w/ expenses (No $600M losses here), and a very transparent with investors. $OGI management won't pump the stock & give unrealistic guidance like some of its peers, $OGI is focused on building an operationally sound profitable cannabis company in Canada & Internationally.
We expect $OGI to get a lot of attention from institutional & retail investors state-side in 2H 2019 as investors begin to pay more attention to market caps, margins, profit/loss, etc. The industry is maturing very quickly and we believe investors will begin to see $OGI as a Top 3 LP.
Time will tell...
***Disclaimer: I am long $OGI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.***
$WEED support lost, will the channel hold? #WEED #CGCOh well, were definitely expecting more energy from around here but now it seems to be that the support that has been holding the price on right course since December '17, is lost. This channel where the price bounced a tiny bit right now has also been tested few times earlier. Not looking that impressive here, for me at least. If this channel is lost, we may see this stock around sub 40 CAD and then maybe even sub 30 CAD. Seems crazy with all this legalization just keep on spreading that the price would see stupidly cheap prices but maybe still lower from here a bit. Direction will chance soon - after the market has done what has to be done.
CGC and ACB comparison - breakout upward at the same time?After taking a look at ACB and MJ charts, I think we are on wave E with CGC chart.
I could be wrong but it begins to look more like wave E. If I am right, this should not dip too far down.
Conopy Growth Corporation, #CGC, #cannabis, #ConopyGrowthConopy Growth Corporation. CGC
Today and tomorrow price for buying $35,77-$35,17
Market Sentiment is on the level of $35,50
Critical level- $26,30
Stop loss- $33,47
CGC is a house of cardsI understand that my chart may offer you too many lines to understand. The red lines are long term trend lines, connecting peaks and dips. The blue lines are a Gann Box for the current cycle.
I have marked the channel in which CGC has been trading for the past weeks. That is the one that is most important to notice. The thick blue line at the end, represents the 45 degree lines of the Gann Box. If you are into Gann, you understand the significance of this line.
Anyhow, it amazes me that investors feel like $40 is a great buying opportunity for CGC. I wanted to take the opportunity to share with you the fact that Q2 ended June 30, and Linton was fired on July 3. The Q1 loss was 94 million $. It is my absolute best guess that the July 3 firing implies increased losses for CGC. In other words, if you are in now, you may be in for a 25% or more, downward adjustment.
CGC's failing confirms one thing I have been saying for months: ACB's strategy is much more consistent. They own their own company, nobody can force them into a different direction. They have a broad international footprint, and a clear path to profitability. While CGC is billions away from living up to their valuation, ACB is doing just that. It is my thought, therefore, that now is the time to exit CGC, and look at ACB, before everybody else does.
Just my 2 cents. It is free. Trade with caution, especially when SPY turns bearish.
Cannabis sector DOWNThe cannabis sector has been really beaten down; today some of them are reaching oversold levels.
ACRGF could be a potential stock to invest in, if we see a pullback. Specially since it's retreating from a past strong support @$12.
Be very careful, oversold can stay oversold for some time. (Same goes for overbought conditions)
Have a great weekend,
dorfmanmaster
LONG CGCExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels in the cannabis market leader. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
TRIANGLE BREAKOUT TRADES ON DAILYTriangles, Ascending Triangle, Descending Triangles and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending volume bars and descending atr line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size.
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
CGC in a clear Trading Range - Looking for a pop back to $44Stop loss with daily close below the low of 7/3
Fortress Investment Group Allocates 39.56% To Their HoldingsEntry 1/2 ****STOP 8%****
We routinely review hedge fund filings, and the trend is becoming clear: funds are bullish on oil. From Warburg Pincus, to Elliot Management, concentrated funds are betting big on the energy sector.
The reason why we chose this particular oil company was because of two reasons. First, and most importantly, the risk reward is extremely attractive right now because the price is coming off a key support level. Those supports were breached on two separate occasions, but, both times that happened was during a significant market correction. The second reason we like this stock is because of the extent to which Fortress is concentrated; 39.5%, a bold prediction.
Since the stock is ranging, $26.00 looks like a good area to consider taking profits. Entry 1/2, ****STOP 8%****
Good luck as always and happy trading everyone
**********WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISERS. THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE. CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISER BEFORE BUYING ANY PUBLICLY TRADED SECURITY. WE DO NOT OWN THIS STOCK, NOR DO WE INTEND TO BUY THIS STOCK IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WE ARE NOT BEING PAID TO WRITE THIS OR BEING COMPENSATED IN ANYWAY. YOU SHOULD NOT USE THIS INFORMATION AS INVESTMENT ADVISE. ALSO, BY READING THIS ARTICLE, YOU AGREE TO INDEMNIFY US OF ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSSES INCURRED FROM USING OUR INFORMATION AS THE BASIS FOR AN INVESTMENT DECISION *****
New Pick OBLN. High Risk – Entry 1/2 – Stop 20%23,513,292 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of December 31, 2018.
Interwest Venture Management Co is the largest institutional owner
Tamarack Advisers, LP reported adding it to their portfolio on 9/30/18
Social media metrics are off the charts right now
THIS IS HIGH RISK!!!!!!!
**********WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISERS. THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE. ENTER AT OWN RISK. CONSULT A FINANCIAL ADVISER BEFORE BUYING ANY PUBLICLY TRADED SECURITY. WE DO NOT OWN THIS STOCK, NOR DO WE INTEND TO BUY THIS STOCK IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WE ARE NOT BEING PAID TO WRITE THIS OR BEING COMPENSATED IN ANYWAY *****
Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)
There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal.
On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue.
Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market.
So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day.
"......"
After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......."
This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!"
Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected.
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
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CGC Debit Spread ShortShorting CGC as poor earnings, Black market marijuana cut their prices as soon as legalization happened.
Core companies or government marijuana is known now is weak and hasn't made much gains due to high prices.
They don't know their competitors and understand their market. More poor earnings to come.
August 2 EXP debit spread $390 entry and exit will be $200 gain at around $36-37 by Mid august.
Max loss is $200
CGC Two Sided TradingCGC is beginning to develop some two sided trading and transitioning into a broad bull channel / bull flag trading range. (All channels are a form of a slanted trading range and ultimately evolve into a large trading range). Prices are currently around the middle of the trading range, where the directional probability is close to 50/50. The high 2 buy setup a few weeks ago failed to get bull follow through. The bears want a test of the 28 low and a breakout below. The bulls want to keep the 28 breakout gap open as a sign of strength and create a higher low / large high 2. Prices will likely remain mostly sideways over the next several weeks or even months, as both sides fight for conviction and follow through in their direction.
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