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CGC

CGC at risk of losing long time weekly uptrendTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart and we're at risk of losing the weekly uptrend that's been intact since July 2017. We're looking at must-hold support of 44.90, the loss of which would break the uptrend. This level will be in play next week. If 44.90 breaks our next support is 10% lower at 40.68, and then there's nothing on the weekly chart until 24.46, however I would expect to find support somewhere in the $37 range close to the Constellation bought deal price from August. We also have the weekly MA20 in that range which should strengthen the support in that area. The weekly candle is a bearish reversal candle and a potential volume climax, this is often a signal of a trend reversal. Losing 44.90 would break the uptrend but it wouldn't immediately put us into a downtrend, we'd have to wait until we find a bottom, bounce, and then set a lower low to initiate a downtrend. Regardless, a break of this level would be significant. We're also looking at bearish divergence on the weekly chart, where price action has set a higher high relative to January but RSI has set a lower high. The MACD does not show the same divergence. "So, what happened this past week?" This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week. I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Bulls needed a break of 51.21 and bears needed a break of 46.42. First thing Monday we got that break with big volume and a close at the high of the day. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. Wednesday and Thursday we saw a weak bounce attempt with a potential daily bear flag setup, with the low of Wednesday a must hold level. When we broke below 48.30 we confirmed that bear flag and confirmed Tuesday's bearish reversal candle. So for clues on direction we zoom into the hourly chart. We can see since the initial dump on Tuesday, every bounce has been just a lower high on the hourly. Once we stabilized a little bit we had our range between 48.30 support and 52.87 resistance (annotated with white lines). For me this was a no-touch zone because the action inside tightening ranges is choppy and difficult to play. I we watched as we set a lower high, then a higher low, and another low high (annotated with yellow lines). On Friday we had a clear equilibrium bear break, which was a signal for bulls to jump out and a signal for bears to open short positions. Anybody bull acting on this signal saved themselves over 6% of downside, and any bear acting on this signal had a nice 6% profit on the subsequent dump on Friday. We bottomed out after 2pm on Friday after touching hourly oversold but the bounce so far is weak and is a potential hourly bear flag setup. That will confirm if we break the low of Friday 45.43. I do anticipate that level to be tested first thing Monday, we can see the bull volume on the bounce is much weaker compared to the bear volume on the dump. CGC is the sector leader so if it shows continued weakness Monday and Tuesday you can anticipate weakness in other names as well. If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. If that level breaks you have an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CShort
by McGuireTO
4
A Top in CGC Has Been Made!!! CGC has completed a classic 5 wave pattern, which is very visible as outlined. Not drawn is also a channel, which shows the current top at channel resistance. Also, we have major divergence on the weekly RSI as price has went up, but momentum down. The timing is impeccable as many everyday people have been piling into pot stocks as it is being legalized tomorrow in Canada and topping out. This is when the smart money is going to get out as the dumb money is buying. Everyday people think things will go up after good news comes out, but the big investors already have bought before these things and rely on you buying so they can sell to you at the top. Keep in mind these companies aren't even profitable yet and have billion dollar valuations. This is just pure speculation from people and as we enter into a recession and the stock market tops out these stocks will fall very hard with the rest. The following is paragraph from Wikipedia explaining the characteristics of a 5th wave; "Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)." My final advice is to sell immediately and take profits. I expect prices to go as low as the $6 to $12 range before resuming the long term trend. Once that happens as a logical investor one can then evaluate the profitability of this new industry and make a wise investment choice.
CShort
by adriel.arrasmith
1
CGC sells the news into legalizationCGC saw a big gap up and huge volatility in the opening minute with a range of more than $1, before an aggressive dump spanning 20 minutes and traders took profit, knocking the stock down 12% immediately. CGC bounced off the low of the day pennies above that key resistance we broke Monday for the equilibrium bullbreak - 51.21 former resistance now support, with the low of the day just above at 51.26. The RSI also backtested the upper resistance of the wedge pattern it broke out of, also as support. The MACD on the daily signals a very weak move from the daily breakout and the volume looks like a volume climax - often a signal of a trend reversal. We are very confident that on this pullback we will retain the daily uptrend and set a higher low above 46.52. Tomorrow I'll be watching for support at the low of today and at the daily Middle Bollinger Band. We are seeing weakness after hours having broken the low of consolidation after the bounce, which would typically have us looking to open with weakness the following day. The top of the afternoon bounce rejected from the 15min Upper Bollinger Band and immediately lost the Middle Bollinger Band, rejecting the price for the rest of the day and into after hours. We are downtrending on the 15min currently, looking for a new base of support. Key support to hold is low of the day 51.26. Key resistance to break to tell us our daily higher low is in will be 55.44. On any continued bull push I do expect a lower high relative to our new all time high 59.25. We knew the rug was going to be pulled out at any moment, and I was caught a little off guard that it happened first thing this morning but luckily took profit on all my swings on the big gap up open. I do hope everyone heeded last night's advice to set your stop loss orders. Big institutions have been loading large positions in Canopy with CIBC and Anonymous combined purchasing roughly $500 Million worth of shares in the past month. Be aware these whales can start unloading massive positions at any time without notice. imgur.com
C
by McGuireTO
1
WEED looking for blue sky breakout tomorrow!WEED had a gap-up and run open this morning on massive volume, breaking our daily equilibrium bullish and finishing the day up 13%. WEED rejected from all time high today although the American ticker certainly smashed that level, but we still closed pennies off the high of the day. After hours trading saw CGC hit as high as 58.44. We're riding well above the daily Upper Bollinger Band as support. We also see the hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD having finally played out. RSI has broke out of its descending wedge pattern, and the MACD has started to curl up. We're looking for a higher MACD spike tomorrow. When stocks are at all time highs there is a lack of resistance, so we look for psychological round numbers. $75, $76, $77, etc. $80 especially should be tricky. We also look at the American tickers to correlate the highs of pre and after market with the Canadian levels. For CGC the high of after hours trading is 58.44. Our key support is 70.16 on the hourly. Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off. Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
Canopy Growth in blue sky breakout!CGC had a gap-up and run open this morning on massive volume, breaking our daily equilibrium bullish and finishing the day up 14%. CGC set a new all time high today, easily busting through the old level and closed at 56.89, just pennies below the high of the day. After hours trading saw Canopy hit as high as 58.44. We're riding well above the daily Upper Bollinger Band as support. We also see the hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD having finally played out. RSI has broke out of its descending wedge pattern, and the MACD has started to curl up. We're looking for a higher MACD spike tomorrow. When stocks are at all time highs there is a lack of resistance, so we look for psychological round numbers. $57, $58, $59, $60 especially should be tricky. We also look for the highs of pre and after market - like I said, that's 58.44. Our key support is 54.05 on the hourly. From after hours we also have 57.27. Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off. Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
2
WEED - Only two levels matterIn the past few ideas I've been pointing viewers to the intraday charts on WEED and I'm no longer doing that. The price action remains so choppy within this range I've become convinced there's no use for it for the pattern. We now have two green days in a row, but because Oct 11th had a much lower open, we still don't have two "real" green days in a row - where the close is higher than the previous day. Our high of day also rejected from the uptrend line we lost on Wednesday. We have a descending wedge pattern on our RSI, showing hidden bullish divergence. We see the same type of divergence on the MACD as well. Part of the unclarity lies in that we don't have a clear level of resistance, but rather we have bands of resistance, so I default to using the outermost extremities of the pattern. Support: 60.14 Resistance: 66.19 These are the only numbers that matter to me for CGC. From Friday's close we're only 14% away from all time high; If we break bullish out of our current equilibrium we will test that level, so I'm more than happy to sit back and wait for the clear direction. That said, bottom-fishing bear breaks of $61 have been profitable over the past week but I would keep a very tight stop on any such attempt. It's also worth noting that I do not chart or play WEED. I chart CGC only - it has significantly more dollar volume so I believe the signals on that chart are more important; but both are worth keeping an eye on - I've seen instances where CGC struggled at a seemingly random price, and it was because WEED was up against a psychological resistance. With that in mind, I see WEED has broke bullish out of the RSI descending wedge but CGC has yet to do so. I also note this RSI pattern on WEED is actually more of a parallel channel. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC - Only two levels matterIn the past few ideas I've been pointing viewers to the intraday charts on CGC and I'm no longer doing that. The price action remains so choppy within this range I've become convinced there's no use for it for the pattern. We now have two green days in a row, but because Oct 11th had a much lower open, we still don't have two "real" green days in a row - where the close is higher than the previous day. Our high of day also rejected from the uptrend line we lost on Wednesday. We have a descending wedge pattern on our RSI, showing hidden bullish divergence. We see the same type of divergence on the MACD as well. Part of the unclarity lies in that we don't have a clear level of resistance, but rather we have bands of resistance, so I default to using the outermost extremities of the pattern. Support: 46.42 Resistance: 51.21 These are the only numbers that matter to me for CGC. From Friday's close we're only 14% away from all time high; If we break bullish out of our current equilibrium we will test that level, so I'm more than happy to sit back and wait for the clear direction. That said, bottom-fishing bear breaks of $47 have been profitable over the past week but I would keep a very tight stop on any such attempt. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
WEED clearest on the 4hrWEED has an inside bar on the daily and the daily chart is a little clearer here than it is for CGC but I still prefer the 4hr chart for the big picture. Our key support is 60.55 and key resistance is 64.99. I'm very impressed how well the entire mj sector is holding up in the face of market weakness. That said... For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC greatest clarity on the 4hr chartCGC looks to have set its lower high in our 4ht equilibrium today at 48.34 but we haven't yet pulled back enough to make us confident. For me, the key resistance is still 49.88. Support in our pattern is 45.01. I find the clearest picture here on the 4hr chart, as smaller timeframes are choppy and the daily chart is very unclear. I'm very impressed how well the entire mj sector is holding up in the face of market weakness. That said... For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
2
CGC is very tightCGC's short term direction will be decided on the ongoing equilibrium on its 4hr chart. The key levels are 46.63 support to 50.99 resistance. Our lower high may be 49.88 if looking at the details of the 1hr chart. Expect choppy action in this right range. 46.42 is the must hold level to maintain the daily uptrend the bulls just took back. For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
1
CGC is indecision defined.CGC today printed a daily inside bar and intraday we saw very choppy action. I definitely did not expect this after such a strong day Monday that broke daily resistance. Today's volume is in line with yesterday's volume, which is also unusual for an inside bar day. RSI is back within the descending wedge pattern after rejecting from the attempted breakout yesterday, so the hidden bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI hasn't yet, in fact, played out. The key daily support to keep the bulls in control is 46.42, but losing the low of Monday 47.49 would be enough of a bearish signal to me. The key daily resistance to break to see continuation is 51.21. The bull break yesterday with no followthrough is concerning and had me looking for a wedge, but I find it difficult to draw a wedge pattern. Looking at the hourly chart I feel the pattern is more of a parallel channel, but I'm not really a fan of my trendline either given it's drawn from wicks (not real bodies) and I have a wick-violation of the trendline. The hourly MACD is also showing hints of hidden bullish divergence but I cannot draw this line as far back as I can draw the price channel so I give that divergence less weight. The RSI also does not back the divergence up; another notch against the possibility. The conflicting signals I'm seeing across different timeframes don't give me a lot of confidence on the direction we're looking and I'm really going to have to see a break of our key daily range to get a clear signal on where we should be looking. We are now a full month without seeing two green days in a row. Every red day we see between now and legalization is a significant strike against the possibility of seeing all time highs into Oct 17th. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
2
Best Cannabis Play - SPRWF - FIRE - Undervalued - Set to ExplodeI wanted to re-sound the alarm on this, other people have said this stock is undervalued, and I am going to repeat their findings, this stock is grossly undervalued compared to its peers. Everyone has been going all in on Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth, Aphria etc. Now is the time to trim your positions in the bigger cannabis companies and rotate it into Supreme Cannabis. Supreme has landed contracts with 6 provinces to supply liquor stores with their premium buds. Compared to Aurora who currently has 5 I believe (8-9 billion market cap). Supreme has been in production for approx. 12 months and has been fastest growing cannabis company of all time compared to other licensed producers growth rates. They achieved approx. 8 million in revenue first 12 months of production. Check their last 12 months news, its extremely impressive. Below are some notable findings. "Supreme Cannabis signs supply agreement with Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries" "Supreme Cannabis signs supply agreement with Alberta Gaming, liquor and Cannabis commission. " Supreme Cannabis enters into MOU with British Columbia Liquor Distribution Board" "Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement for the Province of Ontario" "Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement with Nova Scotia Liquor and Prince Edward Island" "Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement with Tilray - 20 million There supply capacity will balloon up to 50,000 KG in 2019. At $6000 per KG, they will be bringing in nearly $300 million revenue from max capacity. Based on their current valuation of 400-500 million - Supreme Cannabis is grossly undervalued compared to its peers. I predict a monster run from this stock over the next 12 months. I think Supreme has the ability to hit 10 per share in the right conditions.
SLong
by exponentialpick
CGC WEED bulls regain the daily uptrendHappy Thanksgiving! Just a quick update, only one ticker tonight. CGC bulls regained the daily uptrend today with a bull break over 50.21. Ew now have a daily higher low and higher high shifting the momentum back to the bulls just one week out from legalization. The RSI is breaking out of it's descending wedge of resistance and following through on the hidden bullish divergence I've been pointing out for the past week. The next resistance is 51.21. Key hourly support is is 48.10. Because CGC had a 6% day today and WEED didn't trade, I expect we'll see a gap up and profit taking first thing as there is information from today on the American ticker that doesn't exist on the Canadian ticker because the TSX was closed. I will be watching for a gap up open and profit taking on names that had a big bull day today (CGC, ACB, etc) and will be watching for bulls to buy that dip when the selling pressure subsides. Looks like our 7 weeks of bull run might have a bit of steam left after all!
C
by McGuireTO
2
CGC looking for a break mid next weekCGC saw another day of consolidation on very low volume, with the low of day holding the lower trendline of the pennant as support. It's clear to me we have another little daily equilibrium forming with the bulls looking to form a higher low relative to 44.90 to form a base of support and run up to break 50.21 and shift the daily trend back in favour of the bulls. On the 4hr chart we can see more details of our equilibrium pattern. The bulls are trying to bounce from 46.42 as our new base of support but we aren't fully confident yet of that as our new higher low. Key range to watch right now is 44.90 - 50.21. Keep an eye on the 4hr chart to watch this range tighten as it gives the most clarity on the short term action. This pullback is more than the bulls would have hoped for, so we are more likely than now to set a lower high and continue this tightening pattern. The RSI and MACD are both showing hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart but that will be negated if we head down to lower lows. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that it lost the weekly uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
WEED the most likely to negate daily bear flagWEED on the daily timeframe left a bearish dark cloud candle and a possible bear flag pattern. Increasing bear volume is a concern for the bulls. We are still within our larger daily pennant but that pattern will break bearish if we lose 57.60. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart will be less likely to play out with the loss of this level as well. Key daily range: 57.60 - 66.23 Zooming into the 4hr we see a bit of a more hopeful picture with a tightening equilibrium. Bulls have seen enough of a bounce that we can anticipate them holding 57.60 support forming a higher low, and the extend of the pullback will determine the likelihood of breaking 64.63 resistance or forming a lower high relative to that level. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC 4hr equilibrium attempting to negate daily bear flagCGC on the daily timeframe left a bearish dark cloud candle and a possible bear flag pattern. Increasing bear volume is a concern for the bulls. We are still within our larger daily pennant but that pattern will break bearish if we lose 44.90. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart will be less likely to play out with the loss of this level as well. Key daily range: 44.90 - 51.21 Zooming into the 4hr we see a bit of a more hopeful picture with a tightening equilibrium. Bulls have seen enough of a bounce that we can ancitipate them holding 44.90 support forming a higher low, and the extend of the pullback will determine the likelihood of breaking 50.35 resistance or forming a lower high relative to that level. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO