CGC Looking for ContinuationBroke through and retested major trend line resistance. Next target $22.
CGC
Stock of the Day / CGCToday we have a long setup to share. As we are used to we will start by sharing the Macro view and then we will explain the 4hs chart
a) Weekly Chart: The price bounced from a clear Support / Resistance level tested from both sides
b) On the 4HS chart we can see a broken descending trendline + a clear corrective structure supported on the weekly level
c) The corrective structure is an ABC pattern which is considered a continuation structure
d) We have set our Orders as you can see on the chart. We will move our stop loss to break-even when the price reaches the yellow horizontal line
e) On this setup we will risk 1% of our capital and we expect to win 1.8%
f) We will cancel the setup IF the price goes below C
g) Remember: Trade safe, protect your capital, and always understand what you are doing!
CGC: Great Long-term Long opportunityI will probably take half off at the target if it gets there and hold the rest. I think it's basically a long term hold from here.
Canopy Looking Particularly WeakCanopy is in a defined downtrend, and has been trading below it's 21 day EMA since mid August with diminishing volume. Note: earnings release is early November, and the stock has consistently sold off heavily on recent earnings reports off the back of low demand, high supply, and the natural constraints of scaling the edibles/drinks business, among other constraints.
The industry has taken a beating with favorites like Aphria down 90% plus from past highs. Aphria's recent earnings report was a monster disappointment, and sent the stock tumbling 20% plus in a single day. I've seen moves of similar magnitude to the downside in Canopy off the back of recent, and similarly disappointing earnings reports. I suspect just as we've witnessed before, the stock will be pumped into earnings, only to be hammered lower once again.
Stay tuned.
Michael
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remember Tilray? Looking good for a major bounce with daily bullish divs and corrective structure (looks complete). I still watch this sector because it attracts retail traders especially.
The entire MJ space looks about ready to get attention again, probably having to do with what some politicians will say regarding legalization.
Having said that, this is a bounce play. I don't think it will hold the gains. Please make sure you use stops in case this analysis is incorrect.
good luck
WHERE THE BUYERS FAILED - UPTREND IS OVER - RANGING - CGC - 60MNThe price has been up trending generally until the buyers were stopped.
The three arrows show where exactly the buyers has been squeezed. The volumes where very important at those points. It is a probable validation that the market wanted to go down.
The horizontal blue lines are marking the new range of the market price. The market is clearly ranging now.
There is probably opportunity in trading range breaks.
A bottom red line has been identified from past price movement and another top green line has been identified from the top of latest huge gape.
At the moment, the market is ranging. It is probably better to use another quality of traders: WAITING.
This is my trading view about this market
MJ- Cannabis stocks in the accumulation zoneACB, APHA, CGC, CRON, GTBIF, TLRY are in my Cannabis watchlist. I am bullish on APHA and GTBIF.
MJ is a more conservative approach to capture the gain with limited downside risk.
Ladder buy within the demand zone. Set the stop loss 10% to 15% below the demand zone for the swing to intermediate setup.
ABC, What Will It Be?An enormous volume shelf is keeping it from dropping below $10, but internals are looking weak. We're below the MA50 hourly, we're below the MA200 daily, which is going to pose significant resistance. We're also below the daily EMA26.
The entire price action since August 3rd amount to two motive waves upward and one choppy wave down. They look like a textbook ABC correction to me, and their direction is always against the trend. This would imply that the trend is still down.
Here is a close up of the August price action:
Counting always becomes easier when more of the active waves are complete, and so it is always important to keep zooming out to look a the macro timeframe, to see if anything should be revised. The alternative count that I am suggesting here, would have a 2.1 FIB trend extension exactly at the gap close.
We'll see. Don't buy the top, buy the higher high. I do believe that CGC's crap numbers ruined the party here, and investors are cautious. Rightfully so! I'm thinking that ACB already went through everything that CGC still has to go through, in terms of reorganisation, and so I am intent to play ACB earnings in September. But that is a long way off still. I've bought some at the recent drops, and I will accumulate more if indeed it fills the gap below.
My point here being, if you are in right now, be prepared to potentially having to stomach another 30% of your position vapourising, and have the balls to buy the dip.
$acb daily-Falling wedge
-Volume as been anemic since may 21st
- if we see breakout 12.19 is first target then fibs will be price targets for upside/scale out
- will enter tomorrow on a break out above $11.10
Watch for breakout in $CGCCGC on watch for the next coming weeks. Watching for break and retest of yellow trendline resistance.
Possibly a Head & Shoulders Breakdown for WEED.Canopy appears to have broken the base line of support of a micro Head & Shoulders, the blue line is where I have the base of support for the pattern.
The RSI is starting to creep into an area where WEED has seen support, the green arrows pointing to the right is what I am referring too.
Fake out on the Ascending Triangle to the downside?It appears as though Canopy may have pulled a fake out to the downside on an ascending triangle I have outlined in dark blue.
In my previous post I mentioned how the RSI has seen bullish support when approaching the green arrows pointing side ways to the right, where I had a question mark in my previous post is now a green arrow coinciding with the others.
Possibly a bullish flag outlined in green, the downward sloping resistance keeps getting breached to the upside negating a descending triangle / bear flag.
CGC Cypher on scheduleCGC is following the projected trajectory nicely. Overvalued as she is, there is limited upside to CGC, regardless of what she does. There is nothing about this company that validates its valuation, not even its cash balance.
Aside from that, I, personally, still don't understand why people believe in drinks. Would you drink cannabis instead of beer, wine or cocktails when you're out on the town? No disrespect, but I just don't see it. Stoners drinking instead of smoking? Vaping? Sure! CRON/Altria. But even that play will take years to really make something.
Anyways, don't let my ramblings distract you. The chart speaks for itself.
Turning bullish on CGC, but still might get lower buying oppCanopy had a massive 40x run from 2015 to 2018, and has since been in a prolonged correction. Starting to look like a bottom is forming around the $10-15 range. I began averaging in and plan on building a core position over the next 6-12 month. Looking for a 10x move to $150 area on this upcoming cycle.
APHRIA - Looking BullishIf it holds 4.44 next week, it should be bullish. If it breaks 4.33, be careful on the downside.
Canopy Growth - Critical PointCritical Point for Canopy Growth.
Resting right on the 50EMA and bottom trend line of the ascending channel.
Failed to close above 200EMA and tested back down to bottom of the ascending channel.
Ascending channel traditionally leads to lower prices but that's after the breaking of the lower trend line.
Possible test of .618 fib level which also meets with the 200EMA.
Possible short-term upside play with stop loss can be practical.
A good bullish confirmation overall would be a daily candle close or two above the 200EMA, creating enough of a divergence between it and the 50EMA, also creating a new high in this micro trend.
ACB - Bullish CrabA classic harmonic pattern suggests that ACB will close the gap at some point this year. Even if the falling wedge breaks to the upside, it remains to be seen if it can reach new highs. Personally, I don't think it realistic to see ACB rebound fully, before they've shown consistency in earnings and revenue, unless some big news catalyst will restore investor confidence. Until then, I am on the sidelines, ready to accumulate at around $7 and lower... I bet we'll see CGC at the $12 threshold at the same time, IF this plays out...
APHA Topping Out - For Now...The Cannabis industry has had a great run, but overvalued pig CGC put an abrupt hold to the recent rally with a desasterous earnings report, dropped without warning on a market that expected them to deliver in line with just 3 months ago. Snakes in the grass! A sell off was imminent anyways, with all that FOMO buying in the 3 days prior...
That said, APHA was due for healthy consolidation anyway, building up power for a move higher.
$4.30 resistance was broken, and has been holding as a strong support zone in the past week when bears attempted to drag her lower. We need volume to pick up if we want APHA to break through the current zone and try for $5. Indicators tell me this may happen first after a pull back.
APHA's fundamentals certainly support the current valuation, and this third largest Canadian LP trades at a large discount when compared to peers ACB, CGC and CRON.
Where to now?
The Bolliger Bands' middle line is currently running alongside the 100MA daily, both approaching previous key resistance $3.89. We should expect strong support here, should $4.30 be depleted. A bounce from $3.89 may see a run up to $5, but if $3.89 doesn't hold, then the current rally may come to an end, and APHA will be looking for a weekly higher low. Regarling the latter, there is a Bullish Cypher pattern in play right now, that becomes invalid when $5.30 upward is broken. I think we have to be very careful. My plan is to buy either a bull break, or as close to $3.89 as possible, in anticipation of a move higher, but with a tight stop, not to get caught in a bull trap...
Levels on watch ;-)