Short USD/THB: Downtrend to ContinueUSD/THB is in a down-down trend, as evidenced by the 3-6-20 MACD signal line and 12-26-9 MACD signal line. It is also trading within a relatively wide channel (two parallel green lines). I have included the 7-day Moving Average as well, because since the middle of December, the MA has served as a reliable resistance level that the pair has yet to meaningfully break through in the new year.
As some background, the pair began a long up trend in April, peaking in July at 33.525. Since then, has been a gradual down trend, with some potential reversals, but not enough to break the down trend. On the way up, the pair found support around 31.858 (horizontal green line), and that is the next major support line that the pair is moving towards. I think that the slight bounce that the pair has had over the last two sessions are within reason of the down-down trend, and I expect it to continue downwards.
Trade: Sell USD/THB @ 32.023
Stop Loss @ 32.106 (previous day's high) - if it breaks above here, then the channel trend is also broken, implying a potential reversal in the down-down trend
Take Profit @ 31.858 (level of significant support back in May and June)
I've also included some previous resistances that the pair hit since it began its down trend in July. Notably, the blue horizontal line is the level of resistance back in early September that the pair failed to break through. You will see that more recently, this level of resistance was tested again in early December, and when that failed to break through, the pair continued downwards. The red horizontal line is another resistance level that was tested at the end of September. The pair initially failed to break through, but regained momentum in October to begin a short bounce upwards. However, at the end of the year, the pair began testing that resistance level again, this time as a support, and when it failed to find support, it broke through downwards, rather dramatically. This leads us to where we are today, in a down-down trend, and within a downwards channel.
