BankNIfty // Trading Psychological Analysis of BankNiftywww.tradingview.com
We have seen a dramatic dance of BankNIfty in past few day. Here is the postmortem of the Daily price movement in past 2 weeks on Daily time frame.
Based on the chart of **Nifty Bank Index** on the **daily time frame**, here is a breakdown of the trader psychology and price action visible:
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### ** 1. Recent Price Action Context **
- **Uptrend before consolidation**:
- The chart shows an initial bullish momentum marked by **strong green candles** that signify buyers are in control, pushing prices upward.
- **Consolidation period**:
- After the strong upward move, you observe a few small-bodied candles (doji and neutral-type) at the top. These candles indicate **indecision** in the market or a **pause** in momentum as buyers and sellers wrestle for control.
- **Large wick and recovery**:
- A significant candle shows a **large lower wick** where price fell drastically but closed near its opening price. This reflects:
- **Strong buying interest** after a sharp dip.
- Sellers initially pushed the price lower, but buyers stepped in, absorbing the selling pressure and driving the price back up.
- This could signify the presence of **demand** at lower levels.
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### ** 2. Trader Psychology **
- **Strong buyers early on**:
- The rally at the start of the chart reflects **bullish sentiment**, as traders jumped in with confidence, likely due to positive news or market sentiment.
- **Indecision phase**:
- The small-bodied candles (e.g., doji) represent a point of hesitation:
- Bulls may be taking profits after the strong rally.
- Bears attempt to sell but struggle to push prices lower.
- **Large wick psychology**:
- A large lower wick indicates that:
- Sellers tried to break support but failed to sustain the move.
- This failure emboldens buyers to step in, creating a sharp **reversal or rejection of lower levels**.
- Many traders see this as a **bullish signal**, as it suggests buyers are still active and defending the price zone.
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### ** 3. Key Observations from Price Action **
- **Support Zone**:
- The large wick indicates the area around the wick's low is a **potential support zone**. Buyers defended that level aggressively, and traders will watch it closely for future moves.
- **Bullish recovery**:
- The strong close of the most recent candle suggests bullish sentiment may be returning. It shows that buyers absorbed the selling pressure and pushed prices back up.
- **Volume**:
- The high volume (139.91M) supports the validity of the price action. High volume on a bullish recovery suggests significant participation from buyers.
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### ** 4. What to Watch for Next **
1. **Breakout vs. Reversal**:
- If prices break above the recent consolidation range, expect a continuation of the uptrend.
- Conversely, failure to break higher could lead to further consolidation or a potential reversal.
2. **Support Retest**:
- Monitor if prices revisit the large-wick low (support). Holding this level could confirm strong demand, while a breakdown might shift the sentiment to bearish.
3. **Volume Confirmation**:
- Continued bullish price action with strong volume would confirm buyer strength.
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### ** Conclusion **
The chart reflects **buyer dominance** after a brief period of indecision and a strong rejection of lower prices. Traders appear to see value at lower levels, and sentiment leans bullish unless prices break below the recent support. Watch for a breakout or retest of the key levels for confirmation of the next directional move.
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Chartanalysis
GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go?
XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen?
The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech
Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP...
Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher...
Resistance levels: 2651, 2660
Support levels: 2636, 2618
Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall
Polkadot: New Yearly High Soon?Polkadot is currently showing a slight downward trend. However, since hitting the pink wave II low at $7.42, the cryptocurrency has made a significant recovery. According to our primary scenario, the ongoing impulsive wave III should push the price well above the $10.52 resistance before the next interim correction in the pink five-wave pattern begins. However, Polkadot is unlikely to surge straight to a new all-time high without experiencing occasional pullbacks along the way. Indeed, there is even a chance for a new low of wave alt. II below $7.42.
Google: There We Go!Since late October, the Alphabet stock has been rejected twice at the $181.61 resistance. This Monday, though, it achieved an impulsive rally above this critical level. This advance aligns perfectly with our primary scenario by propelling the magenta wave further upward, and we expect additional gains as this movement progresses. However, the development of the ongoing upward impulse would be significantly delayed in our 33% likely alternative scenario. In this case, Alphabet’s stock would still be working on the corrective green wave alt. and sell off below the support at $147.22.
Australian Dollar Looks Like a Good Investment Well, now that Australian unemployment surprisingly dropped it gave the central bank’s hold-steady stance on rates some creedence. With Aussie sitting in the lower portion of ranges (E.G. here with AUDCHF)I like buying and holding the asset for longer time horizons. Small sizes, and take profits at levels, like the 200 MA, and jumping back in on pullbacks.
XAUUSD Gold Spot Wave Analysis Elliott neoWaveThe gold chart is nearing the end of wave D and we should expect a price correction to complete wave E towards $2530 soon, but there may be a smaller upward wave remaining.
First entry: 2700
Possible second entry: 2740-2750
Stop loss: 2775
Take profit: 2530
This offer has a risk/reward ratio of around 3
Make sure to involve less than 2-3% of your total capital and stick to money management principles
This is just a suggestion for consideration
Coinbase: ResistanceSo far, Coinbase was unable to decisively break above the resistance at $341.50. Our primary expectation is that the stock should soon make a significant move above this level, as we anticipate the peak of the ongoing wave in magenta well above it. However, our 33% likely alternative scenario suggests that the stock may have just completed the high of the corrective wave alt.(b) in blue. In this case, it would be moving toward the conclusion of the magenta wave alt. between the supports at $160 and $70.76.
$CRWD upside channel $360 targetThe Daily 5m looks phenomenal and so do some of the hourlies. Flow is showing mixed. Calls sold, calls bought. I see one above ask $350 strike. This chart looks solid if we don't break down $340. This is on my watch. I see inverted head and shoulders forming hoping this bottoms out and an upside channel in a flag. Eyeing $360c 2025. Follow and leave a comment.
WSL
(1D) MICROSOFT ANALYSIS (MSFT)Inspired by today's failed Bitcoin shareholders' vote, I've put up my prognosis for Microsoft MSFT for the next few months. MSFT is down almost 1.5% on the day, rejecting at the 78.8% retracement of the down move from the ATH.
There are a couple possible scenarios going forward. Bullish case is that MSFT started a Bull Flag Correction (waves labeled in blue) with the pivot from the ATH in July. If so, we are completing Wave B of this flag (internal waves labelled in purple) , which may have completed already with this 78.6% rejection. However, we could still see it complete a 100% retracement instead and terminate as a Double Top, retesting and getting rejected at the ATH. This would signal the start of Wave C. We could expect this final wave to have a similar size to Wave A, giving us a short-term 17% Short play from the ATH before ultimately continuing the larger upside trend.
Bearish case would be that Wave B described above (labelled in purple) is instead actually a Bear Flag for downside. This would have to be confirmed with a break below the $385 Support Range.
**This analysis would be invalidated if we do indeed get a breakout above the current ATH, factoring in for some % overshoot (aka fake breakout).
$GLD Double Bottom, Bullish Inverted H&S AND Bull flagging?! Am I blind? Are you? Holy moly. This looks textbook under the reversal patterns I have documented. To be HONEST, it doesn't look 100% but it's showing signs. In my previous AMEX:GLD posts I said $242.73 needs to hold and it has. I think AMEX:GLD is creating a new floor of support for the next 3-6 months. I'm going to be entering GETTEX:250C for months out in 2025. + EOY rally. $250 target gets AMEX:GLD to a 30% YTD. AMEX:SPY in the same boat, 30% YTD - I posted a chart on it as well, check that out. Leave a comment to let me know your thoughts. I looked through many time frames and this one looks the best. I can't say I'm a fan of the big Elmo candles but I see a flag forming. Leave a follow and a comment.
wALL sTreeT L0S3R
From Sideways to Soaring: Gold's Path to $2700Gold has finally broken out of that sideways range, and what’s even more important, it did so in the direction we were expecting. It took a bit longer than we initially thought, but hey, the market doesn’t care about our timelines—it moves for its own reasons and motives.
Right now, Gold is heading towards the $2700 mark, where we’ve got the first block of buy and sell orders lined up.
Honestly, there’s nothing surprising about that, especially since round numbers tend to attract a lot of orders in commodity trading.
The sentiment from the options market isn’t throwing any clear opposing signals, so the base scenario is still pointing upwards. That’s the scoop for now!
Hedera Hashgraph: Sharp DropWithin just a few hours, HBAR dropped sharply by around 20%, plunging deep into our green Target Zone between $0.29 and $0.22, a range we identify as suitable for long entries. This move marked the low of the green corrective wave 4. During the current impulsive wave 5, we expect a swift recovery toward the recent high at $0.39 and potentially beyond. In our short-term alternative scenario, further selling pressure could momentarily push the price below the support at $0.23 (with a 35% probability). But even in the case of such an extended correction, HBAR would remain within an overarching bullish upward structure.
#EURUSDEUR/USD Update, The pair continues its upward trajectory, driven by improving Eurozone sentiment and USD softness. Bulls are eyeing a key breakout above , potentially targeting . Support holds firm near , offering a solid risk-reward setup. Keep an eye on macro data for further momentum. #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #Trading
Booking Holdings: Soon…The Booking stock remains in a strong, ultra-long-term uptrend. Since reaching the correction low of the green wave in August, the stock has rallied by over 65%. We primarily place it in the larger blue wave (I) and anticipate further gains soon. However, according to our alternative scenario, a premature break of the $4,275 support level has a 37% probability.
Render: Keep It Up! RENDER dissolved last week’s sideways movement to the upside, with a peak gain of 36%. While part of this advance has been retraced, we primarily expect the upward momentum to continue during the blue wave (iii). After the next high is established, a brief interim correction should occur before the bulls complete the five-wave structure with another upward push.
$ETH Price Finally Hit $4000 and Take Profit 3 Done, See chartBINANCE:ETHUSDT Finally Price Hit $4000 and Take Profit 3 Done, See chart
Disclaimer: Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
EURNZD:Likelihood of Convergence of 2 Emerging Harmonic PatternsHello traders,
Trust you are doing great.
Below is my analysis of EURNZD currency pair.
The EURNZD pair, currently trading at 1.78462, is showing potential for a rally due to the convergence of two emerging harmonic patterns: a bearish Cypher and a bearish Butterfly. Both patterns suggest a potential move toward 1.81648, where their D leg projections align.
Key Highlights
Bearish Cypher Pattern:
X Leg: 1.82737 (October high)
A Leg: 1.78362
B Leg: 1.80714
D Leg Target: 1.81648
Bearish Butterfly Pattern:
X Leg: 1.80714
A Leg: 1.77412 (November low)
B Leg: 1.80401
C Leg: 1.77857
D Leg Target: 1.81648
The convergence at 1.81648 strengthens its significance as a potential resistance level and a critical zone to watch for a reversal.
Invalidation Point
A break below 1.77412 (November low) would invalidate both patterns and shift the outlook to bearish.
Conclusion
This alignment suggests a short-term rally, but the bearish nature of both patterns implies a possible reversal near 1.81648.
Do let me have your thoughts.
Cheers and happy trading!
$SPY $615 target.Look at the chart, unless a crisis happens, $615 AMEX:SPY should be an easy target within 40 days. Look to hit a mental percentage of 30% YTD, the target here is under that incase of a selloff. $620 would be the 30% YTD target. January 2025 $615c. Not financial advice.
Wallstreetloser
$LUNA above price $0.67 and its FVG Resistance area. See chartBINANCE:LUNAUSDT above price $0.67 and its FVG Resistance area. It will touch price $0.77 and it will touch $1 before consolidation of Big FVG price level area.
Disclaimer: Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.