BTC 4 Seasons CycleWhat I came up with is that in the bullphase Bitcoin tops out in Winter/Spring 🟦/🟩
Last cycle we had a double top but you would only miss out on 4-8% while saving yourself the headache of a 50% drop in summer 🟥
In the bearphase we bottom usually in Fall/Winter 🟧/🟦
I dont know how people can call for 48-55k or something else it would take us another year then until Winter to get back up and top out and to drop in 4-6 Months in Summer to the bottom its not usual for Bitcoin to do that.
It takes Bitcoin around 350 to 400 Days to hit the bottom you can see it in the picture below
Chartanalysis
Fetch: Low set!We now view Fetch in the same-colored wave 3, which should lead it above the $1.73 resistance. With the Target Zone deactivated, investors could move stop-losses closer to the entry price. Stops could protect against our alternative scenario (33% likely), which implies a lower low of green wave alt.2.
HBAR: New Cycle Low?Since HBAR has managed to hold above the low of the orange wave ii and the support at $0.035, we maintain our primary assumption. However, we now need clear bullish signals to confirm this stance. The orange wave iii should eventually reach above the resistance at $0.098. If the price slips below the support at $0.035 (37% probability), we will have to anticipate a deeper low of the magenta wave alt.(2) first. In this alternative scenario, we will then introduce a Target Zone for long entries, which we are currently withholding due to the prevailing downtrend pressure.
Decoding the 70,000 Call Strike: What CME Options Are Tell UsAlright, let’s break this down. We’ve seen a significant influx of call options at the 70,000 strike on the CME, which is generally a pretty positive signal. Especially when you consider the recent breakout from a descending broad channel, with prices holding just above that upper boundary. Looks like we’re heading up—clear signal, right?
But here’s the kicker: the CME gives us the tools to dig deeper. We can analyze whether that influx at the 70,000 strike is coming in as naked options (which is a good sign) or if it’s part of a more complex strategy. So, what did we find? The 70 000 call options were bought simultaneously with Futures in a 2-to-1 ratio. In other words, we’re looking at a synthetic options portfolio that resembles a "Straddle" . This means they’re betting on volatility, expecting the price to move significantly in either direction—not just sitting still. Plus, there are specific timeframes and expected movement ranges involved.
So, what’s the takeaway from this example? I often come across analyses that say, “Calls at this strike are rising, so traders must be feeling bullish.” Not necessarily! Those bought calls could be neatly packaged in a Straddle or even transformed in a Naked Put using Bitcoin futures (what we call a “Synthetic” setup), which would imply completely opposite expectations for price movement.
Don’t just take others’ word for it—dive into the basics at least, but ideally, get a solid grasp of the area you’re analyzing before integrating it into your trading system and building your trading plan around it. Stay critical and don’t fall for clickbait headlines! Good luck out there!
What October 25th's Options Portfolio Tells Us About the YenOur analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods.
From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5 cases, the quotes tend to hang around the Straddle boundaries and often bounce off them. A recent example? August 5th—prices hit the upper limit at 149.20 (that’s the spot quote) and then bounced back nicely, giving savvy traders a sweet opportunity to jump into a short position on the dollar with a solid risk/reward ratio.
So, what's the takeaway here? Use those Straddle boundaries to open positions in the spot/forex market. It makes sense to trade in the direction of the main trend, which means looking for a drop in the yen against the dollar when prices hit that upper boundary—check out #1 for a visual.
Now, I can hear the skeptics asking: what's the rationale behind these price movements at the Straddle boundaries? After all, a Straddle is just a straightforward strategy that involves buying volatility and betting on price movement. True, that’s the textbook definition, but it’s just scratching the surface. The real insights and "battle-tested applications" of this strategy are way more intricate than they seem.
Stay tuned for our updates, and you’ll definitely uncover the hidden meanings and value of options analysis for the everyday forex trader. Trust me, these insights can give you a real edge in the market. It’s worth your time and effort!
Bitcoin: Next Try? Bitcoin continued to gain yesterday. In our alternative scenario, we expect a direct break above the resistance at $73,808. However, in our primary outlook, we anticipate a further downward move. Ideally, the orange wave iv should reach its low near the 50% retracement level, around $47,000.
Cardano: FlatlandsCardano showed little volatility last week, moving mostly sideways. We still expect it to rise in magenta wave (iii), surpassing the resistance level at $0.81. Only our 38% probable alternative scenario could disrupt this plan. This alternative scenario will come into play if the price drops below the support level at $0.22, implying a deeper low for green wave alt.(2)
GOLD - one n single area, what's next??#GOLD.. perfect move as per our video analysis and now market just reached at his most important supporting area.
That is 2709 to 2714
That will play key role in tomorrow and in next move of gold.
Keep close that mentioned region on chart and keep in mind that if market hold it in only that case you can see bounce from here otherwise not.
Don't hold your buying positions below that region.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Polygon: Gain Momentum!In the Polygon chart, we primarily expect an imminent lower low of the magenta wave (2) within our magenta Target Zone (between $0.4711 and $0.3058) before a trend reversal occurs. Afterward, a significant uptrend should begin, starting with the turquoise wave 1, which should break through the resistance level at $0.60. You can use our zone to establish long positions, with stop-losses placed 1% below the low or directly at the support level of $0.31 to minimize downside risk. If the coin breaks downward out of our Zone (42% likely), we will have to expect a further drop with the green wave alt.(2).
'THE XRP BREAKOUT CHART' - May predict the month of the breakoutTHE XRP BREAKOUT CHART is a chart I created to show a very interesting trend that I discovered within XRP's monthly chart. Four times in XRP's previous price action history, prior to periods of significant price appreciation, XRP formed a FVG (fair value gap), as shown in the white boxes, which consisted of three candles. Then, while within that FVG, price broke out on the 8th candle four consecutive times. Three of these four FVG breakouts were preceded by, or included, a single liquidation candle breaking below the lower trend line. Regarding current price action, we just saw the pattern liquidation candle this past July. So, it appears that this trend will continue for the next breakout of the current wedge pattern.
However, the key takeaway is that the pattern FVG has not formed, which means, as of this month (October), if the pattern is to repeat for a fifth time, then we are at a minimum of eight months away from the breakout we have all been waiting for.
The herd—retail investors and YouTube influencers—believe, in sync, that the breakout will begin in mid-December, continue through January, and peak around late February to early March. According to this chart, they’re all wrong.
I believe that incredible price appreciation is coming in the future, but I think this pattern will repeat. That means the breakout of the current wedge pattern, at the earliest, will be sometime around mid/late summer to early fall of 2025, most likely on the 8th monthly candle within the next FVG formation. But when will the first three candles form?
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
ExxonMobil: PullbackXOM stock has experienced a setback over the past two weeks. However, we maintain our view that turquoise wave 3 is still in progress and has further upside potential. Once a top is established, we expect a corrective movement before another rally completes the larger green wave (1). The recent decline brings our 35% alternative scenario into focus, which places the stock in green wave alt.(2). This scenario will activate if the price falls below the support level at $95.77.
Ripple: ConsolidationXRP is currently moving within a sideways range and remains between our two scenarios. Primarily, we expect a drop below the support level at $0.2874 before the magenta wave (C) is completed. After establishing this low, the price should rise over the long-term. However, if the price rises imminently and breaks the resistance level at $0.9479 (probability: 45%), we will already consider the price in the alternative magenta wave alt.(D).
GBP/USD idea short Hey everyone i have a possible idea to go short on gbpusd on the daily timeframe.
It goes like this the rising wedge pattern has been broken and is on the right track to a head and shoulders pattern if the pattern is nicely formed then go to a lower timeframe to follow the bearish trend.
Wishing everyone a good trading week!!
#bearish #headandshoulders #short
TRUUSDT Breakout - Strong Momentum Ahead!!BINANCE:TRUUSDT has successfully broken out of resistance after multiple retests of support, signaling a strong bullish trend. Currently trading above the EMA 100, this breakout is backed by impressive volume, indicating solid buying interest. With the technical indicators aligned, we anticipate significant upward movement in the near future.
As always, remember to manage your risk effectively by placing stop-loss orders to protect your position.
BINANCE:TRUUSDT Currently trading at $0.086
Buy level: Above $0.086
Stop loss: Below $0.079
TP1: $0.92
TP2: $0.097
TP3: $0.1
TP4: $0.12
Max Leverage 3x
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Polkadot: Low Set!After Polkadot showed its first signs of an uptrend last week, we now consider the green wave (ii) complete. The same-colored wave (iii) should push the price above the resistance at $4.92. However, if the price slips below the support level at $3.61 (35% probability), we would need to place the price in the magenta wave alt.(ii), anticipating a decline into the orange Target Zone between $2.98 and $1.67.
Nifty Next MoveNifty have formed harmonic pattern
we can expect a small down trend and after Rally
also the area is above 70% of the trend line formation so we can expect buyers in Discount area
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📌 Note :
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⨺ Am not giving any advisory or signals its just my idea for upgrade my knowledge 📚 in trading
⨹ This is my pre and post market analysis to improve my trading journey 🚀
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Apple: Upside Potential! Currently, we are dealing with the final part of the turquoise wave B and expect a high just below the resistance level at $254.30. Afterward, we anticipate a pullback that will bring the price down with the turquoise wave C into our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: $192.02 – $172.34), where the larger wave (2) is expected to complete. This Target Zone offers another opportunity for long positions, as the bullish trend should continue from there. We assign a 34% probability that the magenta wave alt.(2) has already completed, leading to a direct break above the $254.30 resistance without entering our Target Zone.