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Chartanalysis

Adobe: Downhill! ⛷️The ADBE price has been dropping since yesterday. Our primary expectation is that this is merely the beginning of a larger descent, as we now consider the white wave (b) to be completed and locate the price in the same-colored wave (c). This wave should now fall below the resistance at $506.92 and only come to an end around $380. However, there is an alternative to consider, to which we assign a probability of 30%. This option would shift the high of the white wave alt.(b) slightly higher.
NASDAQ:ADBEShort
by MarketIntel
USDJPY Trendline Break Re-TestHi Traders! USDJPY is on a pullback and re-testing the trendline break, which opens up opportunities for short entries on the market's pullbacks. Here are the details: The market recently broke both the support trendline and the descending channel. Our plan is to sell rallies by looking for an entry near the 20 EMA and a target exit near the monthly low. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 146.750 Stop Level: 148.598 Target Level: 142.862 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
2
SPX Trading Plan & ProjectionHi Traders! SPX looks to have confirmed the support test. There is a long opportunity near the support level of 4541.25 for a potential break above the five-month resistance at 4607.07. Here are the details: The market has comfortably held above the 4541.25 level for more than a week. Preferred Direction: Buy Entry Level: 4554.73 Stop Level: 4498.97 Target Level: 4667.55 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
SP:SPXLong
by BluetonaFX
AUDUSD Breakout Opportunity Hi Traders! AUDUSD is in a descending triangle, and there is a possibility of a break below the trendline support. Here are the details: The market is trending down with swings of lower highs and lower lows following the break and close below the 20 EMA. Our idea is to sell rallies, looking for a break below the support trendline and exit at 0.64924. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 0.65614 Stop Level: 0.65959 Target Level: 0.64924 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
2
US500 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US500 chart mapping/analysis. S&P 500 holding in choppy consolidation after November ripper rally. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~4610 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test ~4820 previous/historical ATH. Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~4524 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ~4450 / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone. Bearish extension target(s) = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white dotted) confluence zone aka "Return to Scene of Crime".
CAPITALCOM:US500
by BlueHatInvestor
US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis. Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs surpassing ~16770 November 2021 high. Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~15690 trading range (yellow dashed) + descending trend-line (light blue) towards 78.6% Fib / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone. Bearish extension target(s) = descending trend-line (white dotted) / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by BlueHatInvestor
AU200 ~ Commodities or Follow US Markets? ASX Wants Both! (2H)CAPITALCOM:AU200 chart mapping/analysis. ASX grinding higher into EOY, benefitting from relative strength in global commodities & precious metals. Trading scenarios into EOY: Continued commodity strength + US bullish momentum = rally into 23.6% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue dotted) confluence zone. Rally would coincide with re-test of bearish breakdown from pennant pattern. Commodity weakness + US market capitulation = re-test of 38.2% Fib, into horizontal line (yellow dashed) / 200SMA / lower range of ascending parallel channel (green dashed) uber confluence zone.
CAPITALCOM:AU200
by BlueHatInvestor
US10Y ~ Bullish Downtrend Reversal (2H)TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2% resistance zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test upper range of descending parallel channel (white). Bearish reaction to macro economic news = reversal back below 50% Fib / 4.10% psychological support level / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) / ascending trend-line (green dotted) confluence zone. Bearish extension target(s) = Golden Pocket zone / 4% psychological support level / 78.6% Fib.
TVC:US10YLong
by BlueHatInvestor
DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis. Bullish inverse H&S identified on lower timeframe charts, pending breakout confirmation. Trading scenarios into EOY: Inverse H&S breakout = extrapolated move into 23.6% Fib / ~106 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Breakout failure = re-test 50% Fib aka "Right Shoulder". Further bearish capitulation = re-test lower range of ascending parallel channel (white) / Golden Pocket confluence zone. Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
TVC:DXY
by BlueHatInvestor
AUDUSD ~ Risk Off Sentiment: Stuck In Limbo into EOY (2H)FX_IDC:AUDUSD chart mapping/analysis. Aussie Dollarydoos struggling to regain bullish momentum after early December peak. Trading scenarios into EOY: Preliminary trading range = ~66.20 to ~65.25. Break above ~66.20 = regain bullish momentum. Bullish target(s) = re-test descending trend-line (white dotted) / upper range of ascending parallel channel (green). Break below ~65.25 = extend bearish capitulation. Bearish target(s) = 61.8% Fib / lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) confluence zone. 200SMA also acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing bearish rollover. Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
by BlueHatInvestor
US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis. Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range of descending parallel channel (white) / re-test ascending trend-lines (green dotted) confluence zone. Bearish continuation = break below previous low (~68.80) towards ~67 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / descending trend-line (light blue / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) confluence zone. Neutral scenario = further sideways chop until next OPEC+ catalyst / key macro economic development.
TVC:USOILShort
by BlueHatInvestor
Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis. Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone. Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone. Expect any bullish reversal to be met with sellers, pending underlying relative strength in DXY/bond yields. 38.2% Fib / 200SMA confluence zone as potential target for short positioning, TBC.
TVC:GOLDShort
by BlueHatInvestor
1
US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation only valid when market is "hyper-sensitive" to bond market fluctuations, especially during recent US Fed undertaking rate hike cycle. Should be used in conjunction with other confluence factors to provide conviction in swing/position trades.
TVC:US10Y
by BlueHatInvestor
Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)CAPITALCOM:COPPER chart mapping/analysis. Copper - off its October lows, yet still contending with global macro headwinds & China's difficulty in shaking off its deflationary economic funk.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Prelim trading range = ~3.93 - ~3.73. Under bearish pressure from 38.2% Fib rejections. Bullish reaction to China/macro economic news = bounce off lower range of parallel channel (green) + 200SMA confluence support / break above 38.2% Fib / break above ~3.93 upper trading range. Bullish extension target(s) = 50% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Bearish reaction to China/macro economic news = break below ~3.73 lower trading range / lower range of parallel channel (green) / break underneath 200SMA, becoming dynamic resistance. Bearish extension target(s) = 23.6% Fib / lower range of descending parallel channel (light blue).
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by BlueHatInvestor
Gold: Bearish Dominance 🐻The bears are currently not giving up control of the gold price and have caused strong sell-offs. Nevertheless, we primarily see this as part of the substructure of the turquoise wave B and expect the rally to continue soon. However, for this scenario to remain in tact, the reversal must take place above the support at $1935. Should this level be broken, the alternative with a probability of 40% would come into play, which sees the price already in a descent.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MarketIntel