Charting
Silver (XAGUSD) how to construct a trade:Medium bullish take:
OANDA:XAGUSD is trading around the $30 price level for the first time in years. Is there a trade here? Could we see $40 by EOY? Let’s draw some charts:
We're trading in a Bullflag at the $30 level
Triple top, we're not quite ready to hold above the level
Find nearby price targets
Establish long term support lines
Use momentum indicators and price action to draw a reasonable path which engages the price structures you've established.
So according to our charts, we should expect a bounce above $27 Be mindful, there are exogenous events that push the price around. Shifts in the macro landscape will impact the path price takes.
For details, I've included a fun GIF, animating the construction of this chart. Check out my twitter for more!
NOTE: Original idea posted 7/23
TrendsThe trend represents the directional movement of prices and plays an essential role in most technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards or downwards. The upward-moving market is called the bull market, while the downward-moving market is called the bear market. Normally, a market is considered to be in an uptrend when the price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, the market is regarded to be in a downtrend when the price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. The non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend, and the price moves within a certain range. Thus, the flat trending market is notorious for its sideways-moving price action.
Key takeaways:
Trends can vary in length and are classified into four main categories: primary, secondary, minor, and intraday.
The primary trend is the most significant trend, lasting for months or years. It's characterized by the overall direction of the market.
The secondary trend opposes the primary trend and usually lasts for weeks or months.
Identifying trends is crucial for technical traders. Methods range from simple tracking of recent lows and highs to more complex mathematical formulas.
Trend classification
Trends tend to be of different lengths. According to these lengths, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend, and intraday trend. The primary trend is the only inviolable trend and lasts for a long period, usually months or years. The secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, the minor trend is measured in days, and the intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
The primary trend
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary uptrend begins with the revival of investors' confidence from the prior primary downtrend. That is followed by the second phase, in which asset prices increase in response to growing corporate earnings. In the third stage, speculation becomes the dominant force driving markets higher. This environment, when asset prices are rising on the hopes, dreams, and expectations of individual investors, tends to foreshadow the beginning of the primary downtrend. Its first phase commences with the abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. That is followed by selling pressure due to falling corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third stage.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration displays the weekly chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) for the period between late 2001 and 2008. The primary bull market began after the bottom of the “dotcom” bubble and lasted until the peak of the real estate and credit crisis in 2007.
Illustration 1.02
The image above presents the daily chart of gold (XAUUSD) during the 2008 bear market when it dropped 34%.
The secondary trend
The secondary trend is the intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend, and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of the range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows Bayerische Motoren Werke's (BMW) daily chart throughout 2020 and 2021. The white dashed-line box indicates the primary uptrend, and the grey dashed-line boxes indicate the secondary trends, counter to the primary one.
The minor and intraday trend
The minor trend lasts for a few days or weeks, yet always less than the secondary trend. It is more difficult to identify than previous types of trends since its amplitude in percentage terms is significantly less when compared to the primary and secondary trends. The same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for a few seconds up to several hours; it represents daily changes in the price and is regarded to have little predictive value.
Trend identification
Identifying a trend is crucial for a trend-based technical trader, and there are plenty of methods how to identify it correctly. These methods can be simple or very complex. The simplest method of identifying trends can be done by tracking recent lows and recent highs in the price of an asset. Other simple methods involve using lines, trendlines, and curves; more complex methods usually involve the use of mathematical formulas in order to generate a set of valuable data.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This article is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Constructin of chartsThe first documented use of charts goes back to ancient Babylonia, where their early forms were used primarily for record-keeping by astrologists and merchants. Then, sometime between the 5th and 6th century A.D., these graphical representations developed into a form reminiscent of today’s charts. Further refinement and development of charting techniques continued through the centuries, influenced by advancements in mathematics, commerce, and technology, which propelled charts from hand-drawn illustrations to sophisticated computerized displays in the 20th century. Nowadays, there is a myriad of visualization options, but line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts are the most widely used for the purpose of technical analysis.
Key points:
A chart is a graphical display of data, usually price and volume.
In the context of financial markets, charts serve as tools for analyzing trends, patterns, and relationships in data.
There is a wide array of visualization options available today, with line charts, bar charts, candlestick charts, and equivolume charts being among the most commonly used.
Different types of charts are suitable for analyzing different aspects of data, ranging from long-term trends to short-term price movements and volatility.
Line chart
A line chart is represented by a single line that provides information about the price on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. It is typically constructed by connecting a closing price. This type of chart is suitable for analyzing long-term trends, but its main drawback is that it provides only one piece of information, unlike a bar graph or a candlestick graph.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration above shows the daily line graph of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) between 2020 and late 2022.
Bar chart
A bar chart is constructed with bars, each representing one particular time interval. These bars provide information about opening price, closing price, high, and low. As such, volatility and various price patterns can be easily observed. This type of chart fits short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend studies.
Illustration 1.02
The image portrays the daily bar chart of silver (XAGUSD) throughout 2022 and early 2023.
Candlestick chart
A candlestick chart is very similar to a bar chart and provides information about opening price, closing price, high, and low. It consists of the real body and shadow. The real body is a rectangular area between the opening and closing prices. Shadows are the price extremes that occur within a trading session and are represented by thin bars above and below the real body. The shadow above the real body is called the upper shadow, and the shadow below the real body is called the lower shadow. Candlestick charts are appropriate for analyzing short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends.
Illustration 1.03
Above is the weekly candlestick chart of gold (XAUUSD) between late 2007 and early 2017.
Equivolume chart
In an equivolume chart, the width of each bar or candlestick is proportional to the volume traded during that period, while the height represents the price range (high to low) for the same period. This type of chart aims to visually depict the relationship between trading volume and price movement, allowing traders to identify patterns and trends more effectively. Equivolume charts are especially useful for analyzing the strength of price movements in relation to trading activity.
Illustration 1.04
The equivolume chart of silver (XAGUSD) is depicted above.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Analysis (24th April 2024)
Market Analysis PT1/2 (24th April 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
On the 1 hour timeframe, Price action has rejected off a daily orderblock couple with a weekly bullish Fair value gap, creating a bullish Change of Character to the upside.
This means that there could be potential intentions of price creating a potential bullish market structure shift on gold, allowing gold to continue bullish on the daily timeframe.
Currently the 1 hour has created a bullish FVG, which hasnt been tested. So ideally i am looking for price to come into the bullish FVG before looking for 5/15 minute confirmation using a bullish change of character to continue higher.
However, if price breaks below the FVG and breaks the 2291 level, that price still has ways to go to the downside and i will be looking for continuation shorts.
QUICK AND EASY WAY TO MAKE A CHART (GAPS) - PLTRIF your an advanced trader and good at charting, you likely won't find this information useful. In the future, I'll have more educational posts that go in depth, but this one is for the newbies.
STEP 1 - Find your gaps (circled in blue) ONLY MARK GAPS THAT HAVE YET TO CLOSE
STEP 2 - MARK your GAPS with a Horizontal Line (alt + h)
STEP 3 - DUPLICATE your Horizontal lines (CTRL + CLICK each line while holding ctrl to multi select lines, CTRL + SHIFT + CLICK AND DRAG to duplicate)
STEP 4 - These are now your long term trading zones (COLOR Lines accordingly, TIP - Try not to pick colors that blend together) red and green do not mean buy/sell, they mean top of the gap, and bottom of the gap, 4.22% or so... It doesn't need to be exact.
STEP 5 - Line thickness (IF multiple lines stack up, you can create a thick line to simplify chart. KEEP IT SIMPLE, REMEMBER, this is not to be exact, this is to create zones to prepare you for future movements based on past gaps)
Why is this useful? Well, if you know a price gap is statistically likely to close, then you can be pretty certain that at some point in the future, that gap will close, meaning price will return to @ or above the price gap.
With this in mind, you can plan ahead and start to realize when your emotions are getting the best of you.
This is also great because you can do this on any time frame with candles.
Why ISNT this useful? Well, this gives you no indication of timing. Past results don't guarantee future results. AND this gives you no indication of current price action. In other words, a GAP could form and close 2 years later, and the entire time before it closes, price keeps going lower and lower.
Good luck, and remember, this is just a quick and easy way for newer users to identify potential price targets, while limiting emotion in decision making.
53000+ if we sustain above neckline!Banking stocks had been outperformers in 2023 but has been laggard until now in 2024! Things are about to turn around in coming week if we sustain above 48400 which is a "Neckline of an ascending triangle" formed on weekly charts of Bank Nifty. Indicators like RSI has already shown signs of a new rally by internal crossover last week. Target which will be activated would be 53000+ while stop loss at 47300.
Holy Crap! Frontrow is gonna make people wealthy!I zoomed out on the daily just to show you how far this token has dropped and in my opinion when you find a bottomed out project like this and you see the volume increasing like that?? you have something you really need to pay attention to! frontrow! FRR!
Btc Correction still here We're still in the middle of this fall oput from the descending Triangle
The Price Target for that Decscending Triangle Landing on the 200 day moving average seems to be to coincidental to not play out. With technical analysis i like to see my indicators and charting patterns play into each other so i feel i'm reading a story and right now btc say's the bulls are exhausted after trucking from 15,000. They're still here, as the fight is strong. We should expect to touch the 200 day moving average line and bounce right back into going to previous all time highs. We've been patient as btc was the same price we're at right now 2 years ago which is a good indication we're about to start having some price action. Hang in there guys the red isn't over yet but when it is we're gonna see some real price movement!
Btc At Neckline of Decending Triangle Excepting Big Bear Move We've been projecting btc to correct to at least the 200day moving average
ema 12 crossed the signal line and i'm expecting EMA 26 to do the same causing btc to break through this neckline!
Be Careful Bulls. We see you on the weekly and know you're there, the bears just have one last push it seems!
Perp Forming Head and Shoulders on Day(Bear)While I've Done Very Well with Longing Perp and have Longer Term Price Targets Above $20 I see a Correction on the Daily coming For Sure.
We have a Huge Head and Shoulders Forming With THE MACD Calling a Sell Signal During the Formation of the Right Shoulder, These are big warning Sign
Don't Let Volume Fool You This is Typical To Head and Shoulders as Sellers are Showing Up in the Right Shoulder here
Bullish on ioi - usdtThis fib looking good on the daily
Just had a 50 & 200 ma cross recently
Ranging here around the .5 fib which is a lovely fib to see the highest response to!
The Power of Standard Deviation (STDEV)Hello everyone,
This morning was a great chance to show the power of using Standard Deviation (STDEV)
for targets.
I usually put it on the London session. That's what I've done here.
As you can see, the levels are almost identical to the ones marked using market structure.
This is another useful advanced tool that can add to your arsenal to help bring your trading to the next level.
This is very easy to use, and you can use the FIB tool with these levels to make your own STDEV tool.
I hope you found this insightful and useful.
Happy Holidays!
A Near term reversal on USD indexWith the possible holding rate for USD, and poor nfp data, seems like USD is taking a turn....
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
spx I remember when i used to agree that T/A and charting didn't really matter vs narratives and market manipulation etc.
Well, that was before I lost a ton of $ trading crypto without it. Then I became OBSESSED with learning it.
It's not the cleanest and I'm still working on my skills etc.
However, I totally believe in it now.
It continues to amaze me daily with placing lines on charts BEFORE the candles come and watch them interact and not just on horizontal main numbers.
I find that diagonals with good T/A and time spent prior. You can almost feel like you set the course for the markets/design their track for the day lol.
Neutral on IBM. Looking more bearish.
As you can see here we are at a demand zone. But, we are consolidating at this zone and that usually means we break through the zone. If we bounce off of the zone, I will look for it to retest the recent trendline that we have just broken. But, if we break through the zone, I will be looking for the stock to fall all the way down to the bottom Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. The P/E ratio is at 65 which is very high so I am leaning more bearish. Also, the market as a whole has an extreme fear index which could also signal a bearish ride for this stock. On the weekly chart, we were over-extended from the top Bollinger Band and have been red the last two weeks so I do look for this downtrend to continue. If we fall, this could be a money-making monster for a couple months out put and I feel we have more room to go down then up. My overall opinion is that we might go up in the short-term but the long term we could be headed for a landslide to the downside.
Disney $Dis #Dis DisneyHere is an even more aggressive and dramatic downward channel idea and still I say we are at least due for a decent bounce. Especially if trading options etc.
Just a tighter trendline down and lower top goal then prior chart given.
I see some BEARS come out and wanted to give and even more Bearish idea and view, but still not ready to focus on SUB $78 support.
We trade the charts until they give us something else to focus on for the trade.
📈 Charting Lesson: What do I even look for in a chart?!Full-time trader here. Sharing some knowledge for free . If this helps you, show some love: follow me for more and like this idea. 👍
Why do I need a chart anyway?
First, we need to convince you of why you need a chart. No problem. Let's say you're a fundamental analysis investor. The stock has to make sense. The stock has to last forever. It needs to be a growth stock. Let's say... NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA is a good example over the last few years. Now that you found a good candidate, when are you going to buy? At an all-time high? At an all-time low? One share a day? One share a week? No. Buying a stock without looking at the chart is like driving with a blindfold. Don't do it.
Pull up a chart.
Observe past price action.
Try to find a trend.
Plan your entry.
Do this even if you're going to hold for 20 years.
When I pull up a chart, what do I look for? I just see a bunch of lines.
Let's first make sure you are looking at the correct view. On the top left corner of your screen, you'll see your user icon. Next to it is the ticker. Next to it is the interval. Next to THAT is the chart type. Make sure you select "CANDLES". Not "hollow candles". Here's how it should look:
Mine may look a bit different because I changed my theme. But the candles is what we care about.
Now the juicy part.
Support and Resistance are Key Reversal Levels.
When you open a chart, the first thing you want to do is look for areas where the price has reached in the past and reversed or got rejected or bounced. For example, every time SPY reached 443.37 in the chart above, it reversed. Let's call this a, "key level".
If the price is ABOVE that key level, the line is called SUPPORT.
If the price is BELOW that key level, the line is called RESISTANCE.
Using the horizontal line tool, make sure you have these key support and resistance levels on your chart. Try to ONLY buy near support and sell near resistance.
If the stock is choppy, do your best. If you can't, skip it and go to another stock. There's thousands!
Stocks, Currencies, and Cryptos Move in Trends. Up or Down.
Next, try to find a "trend". A trend is something where if you connect the dots, the price jumps right from that straight line.
Pull out your trendline tool and try to connect some dots. Don't go through any candle bodies. Going through wicks is okay. It's actually recommended.
Three touches are required to make a valid trendline. If you see only TWO touches? Is the price going TOWARDS the trendline if you were to extend it? There's a good chance it's going to head towards that TL and bounce! Good job. You found a good trade potential.
Identify Reversal or Continuation Patterns.
Look for known patterns. In the example above, there is a "head and shoulders" pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern.
Know that not all patterns will come true.
It's good to know the overall signal the market is giving.
If every trader sees it, it's likely not going to happen.
In the above example, a looming H/S pattern is scary given already bad economic conditions and recession/ inflation worries. In this case, the market may be trying to tell you something.
Understand that these patterns are not just nice-looking drawings on a chart. They work because they display some sort of buyer/ seller psychology.
I will post more examples of known patterns on my TradingView profile soon. Be sure to follow if you want to learn more.
If you benefitted from this, you are welcome to follow me, comment any questions, or share this with your friends. Good knowledge should be free. I'll post more insight soon. Thank you for reading and for your continued support. 👍
SPX Weekly TA SPX - Weekly Chart TA, Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Based on the 3 major time fibs, I am looking for a major trend into October 18th-Nov 8th period.
The 2022 High/Low time fib 2.0 was one day off from the 2023 high.
(Progress/Stalemate over the Government Shutdown can affect that thesis of timing)
Longs:
Last week's selloff left a gap above at 4401 -
Bulls want to regain the 100 day SMA. That would be the main target for a short term bounce, with the gap fill and then a test of the falling 50 day SMA. That would put us back in the value area from the July highs, and the VAH from the March lows to that same July high. Current reading is oversold on the daily, so a ST bounce is expected.
Gravity Points are stacked in the HTF Supply zone, so major resistance for LT Bulls to get through.
Shorts:
Any bounce this week will be met with bears trying to STR. They will want to see the 100 day SMA act as resistance, and will likely see more shorts step in at the gap fill & the 4000 Psych level. A failure to regain those levels should be met with increase selling and a drop below the 4300 level.
If Bears can flip the 4300 into resistance, the move to the May gap fill (4232) should be swift. I would look for Shorts to then peal positions in the HTF Demand zone from 4232 to the .382 H/L fib at 4180. The 200 day SMA is sitting in the demand zone, acting as potential added support.
LONG TERM THESIS: I am expecting the bear pressure to be in control into October. If I had to make a bet, I would look for the higher Demand Zone to be tested shortly, with a test down to the lower HTF Demand zone as a possibility before an EOY rally.