CHARTING REQUEST! Those of you who follow me, please feel free to submit a TICKER in the comments and Ill do a quick video on it!
Charting
NzdJpy....still bullish until maybe....There might be possibility of a reversal pattern of h&s on this pair. But if it doesnt form, likely more upside for this pair!
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MIDDAY AAPL RECAP!! We predicted the whole move! thats T&AJust going over our AAPL trade and why we took it. If you have a ticker request and would like me to chart one for for you let me know
$NNOX: Gap Fill Started, Needs to Break ResistanceCurrently it looks like Nanox on Friday have started to dramatically shift up, especially after hours with lots of the logarithmic curve that was downward already starting to curve. It still has lots of resistance given the rise of short sellers and puts, but that resistance seems to be fading. According to Algowins, when looking at short activity, the worst day in terms of test with over -49.6 was on September 15th, this was when a short seller released a report against Nanox. The "fear index" at that time was likely high. If Nanox increases in positive sentiment which looks to be the case, likely support levels can continue picking up for stable positive retest + stock growth. That said, please consider everything I say "as is", and on an opinion based basis. Do your own due diligence, and invest at your own risk.
1 Year Target for LI: $65Right now, my current 1 year target as a conservative estimate for Li Automotive is $65. That being said, I think this will continue getting momentum and garnishing higher support levels. Many analyst are bullish as well. As always, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please proceed with caution and invest at your own risk. Do your own due diligence.
USDCAD Mark upexpecting price to turn bullish and break trend and Resistance to the upside, Making Higher highs these next coming days
Configuring Your Chart: HLC barsContrary to popular belief, the superior way to view price is not through candlesticks or OHLC bars.
Its HLC bars. HLC bars are the superior choice. Why? Good question...
The reason HLC bars are better is because I found out that the open price is completely redundant when analyzing the charts. Also the majority of indicators out there don't use the open price.
The open price is useless because it doesn't tell you what happened during the bar's life, only how it started, whereas the high, low, and close tell you how price moved during the hlc bar's life. The high, low, and closing prices of a bar are all you will ever need, and they tell you what the sentiment of the bar was. The equation for sentiment:
Sentiment = 100 * (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
What does this suggest? It suggests that candlestick patterns aren't real!
I used to believe in candlestick patterns. They were actually the first thing introduced to me when I started to learn about trading.
But now we all know the truth.
This is very good news because it simplifies the charts!
So next time you look at the charts, view them in HLC bars ;)
Decent Entry: USDCNHI believe that currently the USDCNH is having correlations previous to one of its last breakout patterns and that at the current price, it is a decent entry. I think currently this is mid risk. That being said, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please proceed with caution and do your own due diligence. Invest at your own risk.
ETH testing daily resistance! | 28th July 2020This is a chart shot of today's video on ETHUSD
Today we will take a good look at ETHUSD and what possible key levels to look out for. Right from the long term, down to the short term!
I utilise quite a bit of Fibonacci and graphical price action. Would be really lovely to hear your feedback and also have you guys share your views on the ETHUSD!
Let me know your thoughts and what other pairs you'd like me to take a look at next!
Cheers!
Entry:315.35
SL:336.23
TP:280.00
Chart TemplateSpent some time rethinking how I can markup the chart on multiple time frames. Avoiding Red and Green for bias, since old supply can become new demandn and vice versa. The goal was to minimize number of colors I need and relly on line style and weight. And utilizing higlight shades for key areas of interests.
I hope others can find this useful.
Take the Profits w/ ALT and ShortFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on an opinion based basis. The bull run went too high in my opinion and the current wedge looks like it can receive some steep resistance. I think right now it is at a good level where it is a better idea to not try getting too greedy because just as it went up really high, it can also come crashing down steeply as well. Anyways, proceed with caution. If you like this, it is probably less risky to sell and than rebuy at the dip rather than hold long at this current level.
Divergent BarsDivergent bars help a trader identify a potential shift in the current price trend. Divergent bars are an effective technical tool for futures, options, and stock traders using any timeframe.
A divergent bar is defined as the following:
1. A potential shift from a bullish trend to a bearish trend is evidenced by the current price bar showing a higher high than the previous bar and the current bar closes in the bottom 50% of the price bar. Also known as a Bearish Divergent Bar . This indicates that bullish movement higher is weakening.
2. A potential shift from a bearish trend to a bullish trend is evidenced by the current price bar showing a lower low than the previous bar and the current bar closes in the upper 50% of the price bar. Also known as a Bullish Divergent Bar . This indicates that bearish movement lower is weakening.
To open a position using the divergent bar:
1. When the divergent bar indicates a possible bearish entry , place an order to buy to open a put (for options traders) or sell short (futures traders) at the low of the divergent bar. If the bullish trend is not complete, it is likely this position will not be filled. If, before the order is filled, the price moves above the high of the divergent bar, the bar is no longer valid as an entry signal and open orders should be cancelled. If the order is filled, use your usual profit targets, which will vary by trader. If the position is filled, futures traders should set a stop based on the high of the divergent bar. Options traders should monitor the price action and close the position if price moves above the high of the divergent bar.
2. When the divergent bar indicates a possible bullish entry , place an order to buy to open a call (for options traders) or buy long (futures traders) at the high of the divergent bar. If the bearish trend is not complete, it is likely this position will not be filled. If, before the order is filled, the price moves below the low of the divergent bar, the bar is no longer valid as an entry signal and open orders should be cancelled. If the order is filled, use your usual profit targets, which will vary by trader. If the position is filled, futures traders should set a stop based on the low of the divergent bar. Options traders should monitor the price action and close the position if price moves below the low of the divergent bar.
The most effective way to use the divergent bar signal is to view it as one signal aligned with another reliable signal, such as the Bollinger Bands, Awesome Oscillator, or other momentum/trend shift indicator. The signal is so specific that it adds exceptional strength to the likely reversal. For example, on the chart of TVC:SPX , two divergent bars are highlighted, each one anticipating a strong and clear reversal in the swing trend.
In the first example, a Bullish Divergent Bar appears at the beginning of October. The low is lower than the previous bar’s low and the current bar closes in the upper half of the price bar. This indicates a potential long entry. It is also paired with a Bollinger Band Snap. The next day stochastic crosses up and the high of the divergent bar is broken, signaling a long entry.
The second example occurs in late January with a Bearish Divergent Bar . The high of that bar is higher than the previous bar’s high and it also closes in the lower half of the price bar, signaling a bearish divergent bar. The next market day the low of the divergent bar is broken, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is red, and stochastics is crossed down. This alignment between divergent bar, AO, and stochastics signals a short entry.
In both of these examples there is strong follow through from the divergent bar entry. Moving 35 points immediately to the upside on the bullish divergent bar entry and trending about 100 points lower the days following the bearish divergent bar entry. Divergent bars, when paired with other indicators, can be a reliable indication of a potential shift in the trend.
Bollinger BandsBollinger Bands
Timing for options trades relies on many price signals and confirmation. Even so, knowing when trends are likely to continue or to end is a skill of its own and many traders have timed entry and exit poorly because the trend was misread. One signal helps overcome this problem.
Bollinger Bands (BB) track the trend with three bands. The middle band is a simple moving average of 20 sessions, and the upper and lower bands are each two standard deviations of that average. This sets up a great visual, forming a “probability matrix” of both price and trend.
Because price is not likely to trade above the upper band or below the lower band for very long, any move outside of this matrix is likely to be followed by a retreat back into range.
However, BB is not just a price-specific analytical tool. It also sets up a version of resistance and support as a dynamic factor rather than the traditional straight line. The chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index shows this relationship between the upward-moving trend and resistance.
It is possible to draw straight lines to identify resistance or support as well as times of breakout. BB tends to provide a dynamic version, which is more accurate and more predictive. As the price trend is upward-moving, the upper band tends to track resistance with extreme accuracy. And as a trend moves downward, the lower band tends to track support
In the NDX chart, three examples of the relationship between the upper band and the dynamic price movement are circled. The most revealing aspect of this is how accurately the band points to both entry and exit. As the price moves close to the upper band, it marks the beginning of a strong bullish move. This is seen in all three of the highlighted examples. These are highly reliable entry points for bullish trades such as long calls or short puts.
The bullish trend ends as price moves away from the upper band. This is also seen clearly in all these instances on the chart. Logically, this marks an exit point, but not necessarily the start of a bearish move. Unlike most reversal signals, the move of price away from the upper band signals only the end of the price move. The next phase could be resumption of the trend, retracement, or reversal. To decide, requires a new set of signals.
The interaction between the bands and identification of the trend also works when a dynamic trend ends and moves into a period of consolidation. This occurred at the beginning of December. Notice how strongly the band width narrows, going from 600 points in beginning November down to under 250 points. This shrinking band width signals a likely period of consolidation, which serves as a rest between dynamic trends, a plateau before trend resumption or reversal. This also points to the timing for a different type of option trade, which exploits a range-bound tendency in the short term. In fact, consolidation may be the most profitable trend for short-term trading because breakout is easily identified. Look for a widening of the band width to anticipate a new dynamic move. It does not matter whether that will be bullish or bearish; the issue is that a widening band width signals likely end to consolidation.
Entering a consolidation-type trade like an Iron Condor (with strikes far outside the band width), a short covered straddle, are well-timed as consolidation begins, but should be closed as consolidation ends. At that point, a new trade can be opened to exploit dynamic price movement, such as synthetic stock (long or short) or simply a long option.
The issue to keep in mind in all of these timing decisions is that BB provides more than a reliable tracking device for price. It also marks the nature of short-term trends, whether dynamic or sideways-moving. It is one of the most reliable predictive signals options traders can find.
Price Action & Psychology - Pullback, accumulationHello !
Key points :
Accumulation zone
Halfway retracement
Volume uptrend > volume downtrend
Currently, I feel like there's an accumulation going on. In fact, we have some clues that buyers were strong :
1) we see several spikes in volume
2) the bodies of the candlesticks grew wider the more the trend advanced
As you can see, we've had a little 1-candle pullback at first. Then, the trend resumed, the stock encountered a resistance (previous support on the left side) and pulled back halfway before accumulating.
Obviously, from a realistic point of view, the stock could go any way from here. But, as always, we're trying to stack the probabilities in our favor.
During the accumulation, the volume was relatively "normal", except for that spike I highlighted. The thing is, despite the high volume, the price didn't move. This tells us that sellers are not able to win the fight against buyers (since we're pulling back from an uptrend movement, buyers are still dominating).
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
BTC Not Actually In An Ascending Triangle?So lately in the TA world I've noticed a lot of people pointing out something similar to this green ascending triangle. To me that triangle looks sloppy at best and I personally believe we are in more of a rising parallel channel like I've outlined in purple. I've had this channel mapped out for a couple weeks now (since about June 3) and it's been filling out beautifully up to this point. I am currently still in part of my long position from breaking that red downtrend line (zoomed in to 15min to enter trade) within the channel recently as it confirmed that we could in fact be moving back toward the top of channel possibly shooting for approximately 10.8k? have to see how the channel plays out. I have locked in most of my profits by now, but don't mind keeping part of position open incase we test up higher for a 3rd touch point at purple resistance.
BTC Fueling Up For Journey To 28K???Here on my weekly chart we have a couple of interesting trend lines. First we have a MASSIVE triangle pattern which dates back to July 2017 continuing to coil up currently. Things to consider is that we have not had a new macro higher high in about 2 and a half years, so that being said we COULD still be in a down trend facing resistance ready to plunge currently.
HOWEVER! the fact that we hammered up so fast toward our horizontal resistance as well as the very top of our triangle resistance without getting a violent rejection makes me think the price is currently tapping away as resistance getting ready to smash through. The measured move (height of triangle) would give us a price target of about 27-28k usd. On top of that if we break out of my top resistance triangle line it looks like we will also be breaking above my purple horizontal resistance setting a long awaited higher high. In my opinion this pattern is NOT valid until we see a confirmed breakout but I have been following all white weekly trend lines very closely since March and they've been playing out exactly as expected. EVEN THE COVID DUMP TESTED MY TRIANGLE PERFECTLY!
I assumed after we broke my first line there that we could coil up between my trend lines before a proper breakout. Even with a candle close above my triangle pattern we could hug the resistance as what I would hope to be a flip to support for some time before actually blasting off.
Triangles are my favorite patterns to play so this one makes me excited to watch play out in what could be the not too distance future. With the breakout of a triangle pattern as well as setting a new macro higher high we could really see fomo kick into gear with the start of a proper new bull market cycle which COULD send prices much higher, but 28k is more of a realistic target to shoot for I figure with the measured move :) Of course this isn't an over night type of trade, this is my weekly chart so it would take time to play out IF it does.
Price Action & Psychology - Trend following, pullbackHello !
Key points :
Wide range candles in the direction of the trend
Pulling back after over-extension
Significant support area
After a period of consolidation, the double bottom ignites the new trend. We notice how the wide range candles support the trend.
On the hourly chart, there's a break of the trendline, a retest and a failed attempt to push prices down.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price Action & Psychology - TAZ, Relative StrengthHello !
Key points :
Pullback in Traders Action Zone
Significant support zone
Volume increasing
Buyers threatening downtrend ("inverted hammer")
For more information about the Traders Action Zone, please take a look at my previous analysis ("Related ideas").
The correction yesterday provided us with quite some opportunities. Just as on the idea I linked, we can assume that this stock is pretty solid.
By comparing yesterday's overall market correction (near -7% on the Dow Jones) with the price action on individual stocks we find out which stocks are "strong" and which ones are "weak".
The stock pulled back into the TAZ and formed an "inverted hammer". In other words, buyers are threatening sellers. The stock gapped down, got bought up and came back down before consolidating (on high volume ) around the opening point (hourly chart).
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price Action & Psychology - Traders Action Zone, Relat. StrengthHello !
Key points :
Significant support zone : That zone has been significant since the stock market crash in March. It acted as resistance, aswell as a small consolidation area (02/06 - 03/06).
It is showing relative strength : Considering yesterday's correction of the overall market, the behavior of individual stocks tell us how strong they are.
Price rejection + volume : They day before yesterday, the stock gaps down a lot, triggers stop-losses and panic selling, but eventually, it got bought up (5 or 15 min chart).
Traders Action Zone : To define that zone, I'm using the 30 EMA and the 10 SMA . Basically, the TAZ is pretty useful when stocks are trending. It defines a zone where the general trend resumes after a "breath-taking" pullback.
Traders Action Zone
As you can see on the left side of the chart, it is considered that whenever the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA , we look for opportunities to go long and vice-versa. After some time, the price over-extends and retraces in the TAZ. Obviously, it should be combined with other signals, in this case what gives us a signal is the relative strength of the stock, aswell as the signficant zone.
Here's an example on SPY :
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - Ascending channel,breakout,pullbackHello,
Key points :
Ascending channel : clear uptrend ignited by the double bottom
Breakaway gap + breakout : psychological shift causing the breakaway gap, buyers still strong
Halfway retracement : after a breakout stocks tend to pullback halfway
Previous resistance = support
The double bottom ignites a new trend and creates the ascending channel. The stocks makes higher highs, higher lows.
Everytime it pulled back from there on, it always retraced halfway (didn't draw it in because the chart would look messy).
It makes up for a decent swing up to the swing high where I'll start scaling out.
Make sure you keep an eye on the gap on the left side if the stock breaks the resistance.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - MTFA, counter-trendHello !
Key points :
Significant zone : that confluence area around 7.00 seems to be kind of special, as you see on the left side of the chart, everything prices dipped below, buyers started getting aggressive and eventually caught up.
Bearish momentum fading : the downward movement seemed to be pretty strong, but again, it lost all it's momentum once that 7.00 area reached
Trendline break on the hourly chart : on the hourly chart, we see a trendline break after some consolidation, prices might retest
The stock makes lower highs. Selling pressure is building up. It is very unlikely that we're going to break through that confluence zone considering how fast sellers lost control here.
I'm going to monitor this area for an entry (on the hourly chart), either after the stock retests the trendline break or once it breaks the resistance around 7.50.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - Possible first pullb. after breakoutHello !
Key points :
The double bottom ignites the breakout
Strong breakout, wide candles + high volume to confirm it
Breakaway gap, psychological shift
Significant support zone (left side of the chart in light blue)
Here we are trading another first pullback after breakout pattern. I personally do not short, but this could be a decent short setup from here.
The focus here, is on the pullback. As we can see, the double bottom ignites the breakout from the that trading range.
On the left side of the chart, we see that confluence zone, which kept being an important level while the stock was trading in a range the last few weeks.
The breakout is strong, it is made of the 2 wide range candles. Notice on the second candle, the rejection, considering the lower wick, we can assume that some people sold, but clearly got caught up because the momentum was way too important.
Also, the breakaway gap, signals a shift in people's conviction about the stock. If people are willing to bid higher in pre-market, they must have the conviction that the stock is cheap.
Now, we know that whenever a stock breaks out of a trading range with such a momentum, it must retrace. What causes this retracement are breakout and momentum traders taking profits.
On the left side, circled in orange, you can see that "unsignificant" gap. What I started noticing is that often times stocks get rejected from such gaps, i.e they act as a resistance.
What I expect the stock to do within the next few days :
Maybe some upside today caused by too optimistic people (PS : It's already up a few points pre-market)
A drastic decrease in volume
A move to the downside
Usually, such pullbacks retrace halfway from the breakout. I'll start monitoring lower timeframes once prices come down around the 61.8% or 50% Fibonacci. I'll swing the leg up and start scaling out at the swing high.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
PLEASE , if you got any VALUE out of this analysis, make sure you hit the LIKE BUTTON . Thank you !
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - MTFA, Double bottomHello !
Key points :
Double bottom
Significant support area, also on higher timeframes
Bearish momentum is over
It looks like the bearish momentum that carried the stock price down is now over. That particular candlesticks tells us that an attempt was made to push the stock further down, but it didn't work out.
On the 5-min chart, the interpretation of that daily candle becomes clear, at market open the price went down ("Morning panic" I guess) and came back up to consolidate around the closing area. This tells us that the control of the stock is changing hands.
Be aware of that gap at 8.50 that might act as a resistance if the momentum is not strong enough.
The monitoring area, for scaling out, begins around 9.30.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
