Price Action & Psychology - Traders Action Zone, Relat. StrengthHello !
Key points :
Significant support zone : That zone has been significant since the stock market crash in March. It acted as resistance, aswell as a small consolidation area (02/06 - 03/06).
It is showing relative strength : Considering yesterday's correction of the overall market, the behavior of individual stocks tell us how strong they are.
Price rejection + volume : They day before yesterday, the stock gaps down a lot, triggers stop-losses and panic selling, but eventually, it got bought up (5 or 15 min chart).
Traders Action Zone : To define that zone, I'm using the 30 EMA and the 10 SMA . Basically, the TAZ is pretty useful when stocks are trending. It defines a zone where the general trend resumes after a "breath-taking" pullback.
Traders Action Zone
As you can see on the left side of the chart, it is considered that whenever the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA , we look for opportunities to go long and vice-versa. After some time, the price over-extends and retraces in the TAZ. Obviously, it should be combined with other signals, in this case what gives us a signal is the relative strength of the stock, aswell as the signficant zone.
Here's an example on SPY :
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Charting
Price action & Psychology - Ascending channel,breakout,pullbackHello,
Key points :
Ascending channel : clear uptrend ignited by the double bottom
Breakaway gap + breakout : psychological shift causing the breakaway gap, buyers still strong
Halfway retracement : after a breakout stocks tend to pullback halfway
Previous resistance = support
The double bottom ignites a new trend and creates the ascending channel. The stocks makes higher highs, higher lows.
Everytime it pulled back from there on, it always retraced halfway (didn't draw it in because the chart would look messy).
It makes up for a decent swing up to the swing high where I'll start scaling out.
Make sure you keep an eye on the gap on the left side if the stock breaks the resistance.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - MTFA, counter-trendHello !
Key points :
Significant zone : that confluence area around 7.00 seems to be kind of special, as you see on the left side of the chart, everything prices dipped below, buyers started getting aggressive and eventually caught up.
Bearish momentum fading : the downward movement seemed to be pretty strong, but again, it lost all it's momentum once that 7.00 area reached
Trendline break on the hourly chart : on the hourly chart, we see a trendline break after some consolidation, prices might retest
The stock makes lower highs. Selling pressure is building up. It is very unlikely that we're going to break through that confluence zone considering how fast sellers lost control here.
I'm going to monitor this area for an entry (on the hourly chart), either after the stock retests the trendline break or once it breaks the resistance around 7.50.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - Possible first pullb. after breakoutHello !
Key points :
The double bottom ignites the breakout
Strong breakout, wide candles + high volume to confirm it
Breakaway gap, psychological shift
Significant support zone (left side of the chart in light blue)
Here we are trading another first pullback after breakout pattern. I personally do not short, but this could be a decent short setup from here.
The focus here, is on the pullback. As we can see, the double bottom ignites the breakout from the that trading range.
On the left side of the chart, we see that confluence zone, which kept being an important level while the stock was trading in a range the last few weeks.
The breakout is strong, it is made of the 2 wide range candles. Notice on the second candle, the rejection, considering the lower wick, we can assume that some people sold, but clearly got caught up because the momentum was way too important.
Also, the breakaway gap, signals a shift in people's conviction about the stock. If people are willing to bid higher in pre-market, they must have the conviction that the stock is cheap.
Now, we know that whenever a stock breaks out of a trading range with such a momentum, it must retrace. What causes this retracement are breakout and momentum traders taking profits.
On the left side, circled in orange, you can see that "unsignificant" gap. What I started noticing is that often times stocks get rejected from such gaps, i.e they act as a resistance.
What I expect the stock to do within the next few days :
Maybe some upside today caused by too optimistic people (PS : It's already up a few points pre-market)
A drastic decrease in volume
A move to the downside
Usually, such pullbacks retrace halfway from the breakout. I'll start monitoring lower timeframes once prices come down around the 61.8% or 50% Fibonacci. I'll swing the leg up and start scaling out at the swing high.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
PLEASE , if you got any VALUE out of this analysis, make sure you hit the LIKE BUTTON . Thank you !
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - MTFA, Double bottomHello !
Key points :
Double bottom
Significant support area, also on higher timeframes
Bearish momentum is over
It looks like the bearish momentum that carried the stock price down is now over. That particular candlesticks tells us that an attempt was made to push the stock further down, but it didn't work out.
On the 5-min chart, the interpretation of that daily candle becomes clear, at market open the price went down ("Morning panic" I guess) and came back up to consolidate around the closing area. This tells us that the control of the stock is changing hands.
Be aware of that gap at 8.50 that might act as a resistance if the momentum is not strong enough.
The monitoring area, for scaling out, begins around 9.30.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price Action & Psychology - Pattern & MTFAHello !
Key points
Triple bottom pattern
Price rejection
Significant support zone
Hourly chart : On that timeframe, we get a confirmation from the price rejection we see on the daily chart. The stock gapped down, triggered stop-losses and panic selling. Afterwards, we see a wide bullish candlestick (kind of "Tweezer Bottom") that has approximately the same volume.
I see two different ways to play that trade :
"Aggressive" entry : buying around the previous close
"Safer" entry : waiting for a breakout on the hourly chart
Either way, in my opinion the stop-loss should go above the Tweezer Bottom. On a 15-min chart, we see that the price action was pretty straightforward, kind of an instant correction from the morning panic.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Gold - Bull Flag - Levels to WatchWatch for a strong close above $1,740 for a potential measured move to $1,900 (prior cycle highs).
Set a stop with a close below around $1,680
It is only a matter of time until gold retests highs, for those who are more inclined to 'trade' gold, which i do not recommend, then there is a potential nice bull flag shaping up.
-TradingEdge
Price action & Psychology - First pullback after breakoutHello !
Key points :
Breakaway gap
Breakout on high volume
First pullback
Volume sinks
The stock consolidates within an ascending triangle, it gets rejected from that significant confluence zone (circled on the left). It makes higher lows but not higher highs, buying pressure slowly builds up, people gain in confidence and are willing to pay higher prices to get on board.
Finally, the stock breaks out - psychological shift in people's mind, they expect the price to go higher, therefore they are willing to pay higher prices. The pullback is caused by profit-taking. In fact, we see a decrease in volume that might keep on going today.
The Fibonacci Retracement is only a reference point, other people are monitoring these levels, which make them significant.
We will monitor the circled zone and wait for a "confirmation" that tells us that buyers are stepping in and that sellers are losing control.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price action & Psychology - Inside trader's mindsHello !
Key points :
Double bottom
Volume on uptrends > volume on downtrends
Indecision + rising volume
It all starts with the halfway retracement. The stock makes a new low, buying pressure kicks in, drives price up. The halfway retracement is the result of traders taking profits, see how the volume fades ?
Anyway, the momentum is not enough to break through the resistance and keep the trend going, it reverses.
See how that 50% retracement seems to be a reference point, marked by the indecision candlestick (doji) and the spike in volume.
The gaps on the way up tell us that buyers are really aggressive (or covering their shorts).
On the way down, there's once again buying pressure (candlestick + volume) around that previous halfway retracement.
Note how the volume crumbles down and the bearish candlestick marks the last burst of the downtrend.
Volume is rising, there's still a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, we should see an increase in traded shares today.
Summary :
Those that bought too early (circled zone) either sold or are still holding (an might re-enter or add to their loser)
Some will probably buy the double bottom or the just the support
It is very unlikely that traders are going to short this zone
Those that have an open short position will cover
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
ETHUSD Topping out? Time to Dive? BTC price dependent?ETHUSD price has rejected off the supply zone giving the first indication a correction could be upon us. I'm waiting for the break of the raising wedge before entering a short position. The conservative option would be to wait for price to break down and create a lower low before contemplating a short position. Thanks for a having a look at my analysis, all feedback is welcome. Would love to hear from you and your ideas particularly if you are seeing a long opportunity. Give me a follow and a like, to keep seeing similar charts. Thanks again
Price action & Psychology - Triple bottom reversalHello !
Key points :
Triple bottom pattern (laws of mass psychology, in my opinion a very reliable pattern)
Support held despite high volume
Indecision rises even though overall market turmoil ( relative strength )
Rising volume compared to the previous trading session
I usually never wait for the breakout when trading double or triple bottoms. I tend to buy the bottom immediately. Therefore, I will use the 4.00 zone as my initial target. If the reversal happens and my target is reached I decide whether I hold or sell based on the current conditions.
Using the S&P500 index as a guide
On my S&P500 chart I have the Williams %R (3) indicator plotted. I noticed that during that market crash, whenever the indicator enters the oversold zone (< -75) the S&P500 tends to bounce back up.
i.ibb.co
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock.***
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
Price action & Psychology - First pullbackHello !
Key points :
Fading volume : The fact that volume is fading indicates that the pullback is losing momentum, we should see an increase in volume tomorrow compared to today. Interest in stock is rising.
The wide range bullish candlesticks shows that bulls are strong and there's actually interest in the stocks (i.e. those that didn't trade have a chance to buy now)
The stock gapped down, probably out of fear considering the overall market conditions, there's been a selling wave driving prices down but bulls caught up
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. You should never ever blindly follow a trader's idea without knowing exactly what he talks about.***
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
Price action & Psychology - Reversal after panic sellHello !
Key points :
Gap down : The stock gaps down probably because of bad news; opens at old support level
Panic selling : The bad news and the gap down triggers panic selling which explains the surge in volume
The stock finally settles on a previous support area
Last selling burst occurs and indecision rises as volume goes back up
Through this trade I want to emphasize the fact that one should be careful when evaluating the shadows (or wicks) of a candlestick . On this particular trade, there is no need to put the stop loss below the shadow, because it is the irrational behavior (fear) that formed it.
Watch out the area around 7.00 as it is an important congestion zone on a weekly chart (3 years - weekly). The final target would be the 8.00 area.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. You should never ever blindly follow a trader's idea without knowing exactly what he talks about.***
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
VIX on watch for double bottom @ 37 within falling wedgeWatching to see if VIX holds a double bottom. Wedges very often end on double bottoms or double tops (as per a riding wedge).
Only using this as a tool to calculate general market sentiment, no positioning for me directly within volatility products currently.
Thank you.
Trend continuation after pullback - Psychology & Price actionHello !
Key points :
Support on previous gaps (highlighted on the chart)
50% Fibonacci retracement, after starting a new trend, stocks tend to pullback halfway after resuming
Fading volume signals the end of the current trend
Indecision candlestick ("Doji") signals that indecision rises
What's the plan ?
From a "daytrader" perspective (that I'm not, but I have some basic knowledge), I saw that morning panic which led to a reverse and a spike to 8.10 (5 min chart). A pullback was obvious, so I placed my buy limit at 7.95 and got filled. Now I'll let the trade unfold and will add the other half on my position once the trade advances in the desired direction. The initial target is the first encountered resistance.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. You should never ever blindly follow a trader's idea without knowing exactly what he talks about.***
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
GBPJPY [1-3 weeks view]Short GBPJPY
Entry: 136.810
SL: 138.680
Clean, Simple, Concise. That's how I like my charts.
Price has been trending downwards.
Despite price gapping lower and making a new low, price came back to cover the gap. This was to be expected as gaps are generally covered. This provided me for a re-entry to go with the trend.
I currently see price forming sort of a flag pattern which is a continuation pattern. Should price break below I would add to my positions to compound the profits. Further, price is holding nicely below it's natural moving average.
This trade has a very nice risk/reward profile.
GBPUSD 4HR LONGGBP/USD May rise 100-150 pips
Insight -Price moving in a downwards trend, has broken previous support level with price now
below the 23% on the fib, may hit lower support at 1.2763, then test resistance at 1.2847 and go
long then reverse once price is at the golden zone.
Intraday - Buy
Trade: Buy
Buy or Above: 1.2763
Target TP: 1.2847 & 1.2915
Pivot and Support 1.2763
Trade: Sell
Sell or Below 1.2763
Target TP: 1.2738 & 1.2722
EURNZD [1-3 day view]Short EURNZD
Entry: 1.771350
SL: 1.775520
(Decided not to put TP because I believe trading should always be focused more on where we could possibly go wrong)
This would be an intraday short.
I am of the view that we should see a bearish drop towards my final TP.
Price has been drifting lower since the start of the month. Though on the longer term view, i maintain my bullish bias.
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Renko chart using OHLC
Renko Chart using CLOSE
Happy trading!
WTI Oil / USOIL [1-3 days view]Sell on strength
Buy: 52.75
SL: 53.65
Price expected to pull back towards 61.8% retracement (entry) before breaking below ascending trendline support and then continuing the drop towards 50.55 level.
Price is below what I call the natural moving average and MACD seems to be turning downward, heading into bearish territory as well.
Cheers.
Shorting the EUR/USDI have shorted this pair earlier this week due to the recent breakout around 1.08274 level. I know that most of the signs lead to a very exhausted and oversold currency but I don't see anything significant that this reverses soon. I'm targeting around 80 pips from the point of breakout or will close it manually if I see a major bullish engulfing candle at the current consolidation.
For now, I'll just watch and see where this goes.