Chart Patterns
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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NFP & Unemployment Rate Preview – April 4, 2025📉 NFP & Unemployment Rate Preview – April 4, 2025 🧨
Today traders will be waiting for one of the most overhyped news releases of the month — Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Buckle up for some wild swings, maybe even caused by… 10 fewer McDonald’s hires. 🍔💥
🧠 What’s Expected?
Jobs added: Around 135K, down from 151K.
Unemployment rate: Steady at 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings: Expected +0.3% MoM, +4.0% YoY.
🧨 What’s brewing?
Trump’s new import tariffs (yes, again) are shaking markets, pushing fears of inflation and recession to the surface.
Economic data has been mixed — some cracks are showing, and traders are ready to overreact either way. 🙃
🎙 Powell speaks — so if NFP doesn’t move the market, maybe a few carefully chosen Fed words will.
😏 Reminder for the impatient ones:
If the first 5-minute candle after NFP doesn’t go your way… maybe wait for the second one before tweeting “market is broken.” 🫠📉
#NFP #XAUUSD #Forex #Powell #GoldScalping #FOMC #VolatilityDay #PatienceNotPanic
USOIL: Key Levels and Bullish Prospects Amid Trade War ConcernsGood morning Traders,
Trust you are doing great.
Kindly go through my analysis of USOIL.
USOIL is currently experiencing market imbalance due to the nature of its opening range, following a gap-down decline last night in response to trade war concerns that have fueled recession fears. The price dropped from its weekly high of 72.22 to a key support zone at 69.00, which is near the week's low. As we anticipate the release of the ISM Services PMI at 3 PM GMT+1, I expect the demand zone to hold, driving the price higher—initially to fill the gap and subsequently toward the 71.35 region. Furthermore, this outlook is strengthened by the formation of a bullish Bat pattern on the M30 chart.
The key levels I will be monitoring for potential price action include the previous week's high at 70.10, the five-week high at 70.62, and the 71.35 region. These areas represent significant resistance levels that could be tested as price moves upward. A break below 68.80 will invalidate this outlook.
Cheers and Happy trading.
JP MORGAN won't give a better buy opportunity in 2025.Last time we looked at JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on November 27 2024 (see chart below), it gave us a clear sell signal that went straight to our $236 Target:
Now that the price rebounded not only on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, we are switching back to buying a we even got the first pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Given that the 1D RSI also rebounded from oversold (<30.00) territory like the October 27 2023 Low did, we expect a similar Bullish Leg to follow and thus our Target is $330 at the top of the Channel Up.
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Fri 4th Apr 2025 AUD/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a AUD/USD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
euraud analysis elliot. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Possible ScenariosWe had a great little pullback in the red circle and went up to the last big resistance.
From there we had a good rejection.
Now i would like to see a pullback to the next zones and like to expect a second try to breack the resistance
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Got any questins? Dont hesitate to aske me :)
EUR/USD: Euro Tested Before Tariff NewsIn the early trading session on Wednesday, the euro against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly around 1.0800. It had declined slightly for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and entered a consolidation phase around 1.0800 in the European morning on Wednesday. The short - term technical outlook failed to offer a clear price trend indication.
The disappointing macroeconomic data from the US on Tuesday made it hard for the dollar to strengthen, thus supporting the euro against the dollar. However, the cautious market sentiment prevented the currency pair from gaining upward momentum.
Later today, the ADP Employment Change data will be on the US economic calendar. But
investors are unlikely to respond to this data before President Donald Trump announces the tariff measures on "Liberation Day".
The RSI indicator continues to move sideways around 50, reflecting a lack of clear short - term directional momentum for the EUR/USD. If the euro remains below 1.0800 and this level is confirmed as resistance, technical sellers may act, opening the door for a further slide towards 1.0730 (200 SMA). On the upside, 1.0840 ( 20 SMA) is the first resistance level, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950.
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Has gold peaked and turned bearish? Trend analysisGold will focus on the impact of non-agricultural data. At that time, there will be large short-term fluctuations. In the 4H cycle, the weak shock will remain below the middle track. The upper pressure will remain at 3118 and 3135. The short-term weakness will also be accompanied by repeated detours. Therefore, the rebound will be mainly shorted, and the lower support will remain at 3080 and 3055.
Recommendation: Short gold near 3135, stop loss at 3143, target 3120, 3110!
Has gold peaked and gone short?So has gold peaked and turned bearish? Yesterday, it rebounded after a sharp drop. Although it fell back, it still closed above 3100, indicating that the market is not weak and has not completely turned bearish. Although the daily line turned negative yesterday, it closed with a long lower shadow and did not fall below the short-term moving average. We can only see long adjustments or corrections. There are generally two types of corrections: time correction and price correction. Time correction is to exchange time for space, and the price does not change much; while price correction is to complete the correction with rapid price fluctuations, mostly in the form of a high-rise fall or a bottom-out rebound. Yesterday's trend was a price correction.
4.4 Analysis of gold short-term operation strategy!!!On Thursday (April 3), spot gold experienced a surprising volatility, with a single-day fluctuation of nearly $114, and the price of gold finally closed down.
Analyze the technical outlook of gold intraday.
The 4-hour chart of gold shows that the price of gold is trading below the currently flat 20-period SMA, but it is still well above the bullish 100-period SMA, which provides support near $3040/oz. At the same time, technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings and stabilized within negative levels. If the price of gold falls below the above-mentioned $3040/oz area, the price of gold may fall sharply.
Support: $3086.70/oz; $3073.90/oz; $3061.10/oz
Resistance: $3123.10/oz; $3136.70/oz; $3150.00/oz
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(04/04/2025)Today will be gap down opening in banknifty. After opening if banknifty starts trading below 51450 level then expected downside upto 51050 level. For today's session 51000 level will act as a strong support for banknifty. Any major downside only expected below 50950 level. Strong upside rally possible if index starts trading and sustain above 51550 level.
Gold bullish trend remains unchangedGold surged and then fell back, with the highest price rising to 3167, but then the price fell back and gave up all the gains, falling to 3116. The daily line just touched the 5-day moving average support. As long as the 5-day moving average support is not broken, the short-term will continue to rise strongly. According to this momentum, we can see 3200 points in the non-agricultural data. However, one point worth noting at present is that the hourly MACD indicator has a dead cross signal. Coupled with the surge and fall of gold, the K-line has formed a combination of Yin and Yang, suggesting that the risk of high-level selling pressure is increasing. Once it falls below the key position of 3100 below, the market will be completely controlled by the bears. The current bullish structure of gold has not changed. The key support for the long-short watershed below is still 3100. Above 3100, the strong bullish idea remains unchanged. Short-term operations rely on 3100 for defense, and pay attention to the resistance of the 3140-45 area above.
Algorand Consolidation "Pointing" To An End??Here we can see COINBASE:ALGOUSD is about finished forming a Continuation Pattern, the Bullish Wedge!
Price has made an impressive .50 increase since Trump taking office but has slipped into quite a steep Consolidation Phase where Price has made run for the 88.6% Retracement and seems to be filling out the rest of the "Point" of the Wedge!
Accompanying the Chart Pattern is a Decrease in Volume as well, signaling the tight Consolidation could be looking to make a break soon!
*With a True Breakout, we will want to be vigilant of multiple factors coming into play with Increase of Volume to Validate the Break of Pattern!
Once the Pattern is Confirmed and a Breakout Validated, based on the "Flagpole" of the Pattern, we could expect a potential extension of price to go behind the current Swing High of .6133 and up into the .70 area!
USDCAD On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDCAD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.4161
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.4266
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.4101
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Closing multiple orders with ProfitAs discussed throughout my Wednesday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: The Price-action was once again seen Trading below the #3,152.80 benchmark extended decline where Sellers should finally prevailed and dragg the Price-action more than #57 points downwards (as was announced on one of my remarks lately that Gold always prints #57 point decline once the local High’s rejects the sequence and delivers the eminent rebound). Gold is dangerously approaching again the Higher High’s trendline of the Daily chart’s wide Ascending Channel, way above the #MA50 (aswell on Daily chart, representing in the same manner the Long-term Support zone) in Overbought waters, however every pullback on Gold is accumulation zone for new Bullish cycle."
First order I have engaged was Wednesday's Sell order (#3,132.80 - #3,111.80) and I have continued Selling every local High's throughout yesterday's session as I announced possible Selling correction ahead on Gold.
Technical analysis: Gold delivered Selling extension as I announced however it would be best for Short-term Sellers to wait for area to be engulfed, as today’s session will most likely represent the crossroads for the next Week, taking in consideration that one can never foresee the sequence until when Fundamentally driven rises and upswing (such as current one) will last and how Gold will digest today's session NFP numbers. Lagging upswing sequence comforted Sellers on it’s Intra-day basis, as Price-action was close to the #2-Month Bottom. The Price-action has altered the downtrend fractal near the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel’s Lower zone, as discussed on my latest commentary, with current mentioned configuration above representing former strong #1-Month Resistance zone. As long as this holds, there are Higher probabilities to reach the Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High’s Lower zone again on Spot prices however touch may be completed Lower depending on the aggression of the current variance. Technically, Gold should ease the Overbought levels, but on such Fundamental landscape (Bull bias), both sides are equally probable unless #3,137.80 gets invalidated to the upside once again. After all, on the Daily timeframe, the pattern is an healthy Ascending Channel which just touched the Higher High’s trendline and has a limit just over current structure, my main point of interests (depending on the impulse of the wave started early last Week). Above the #3,137.80, Short-term Selling pattern is invalidated and the relief attempt may be accelerated towards the Hourly 4 chart’s #3,152.80 benchmark.
My position: After excellent week behind me, I didn't had to Trade the NFP however I will as I do expect downside surprise on NFP which could skyrocket Gold upwards coupled with Powell's talks.