What to Watch For Next!💡 GBPUSD Bearish Trade Outlook – Detailed Analysis
The GBPUSD pair has recently shown a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) to the downside — a strong sign that bearish momentum may be taking control. Alongside this shift, we’ve also seen the formation of a Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4-hour timeframe, which adds further confluence to the potential for continued downside.
📍 What This Means:
The break in structure combined with the FVG suggests that institutional activity may be driving price lower, possibly targeting areas of untapped liquidity beneath previous lows. These are often high-probability setups when traded with confirmation.
🔎 What to Watch For Next:
At this point, it's best to wait patiently for the price to retrace into the 4H FVG zone. Once price taps this area, we should closely monitor lower timeframes (such as 15M or 5M) for bearish confirmation entries — like a bearish engulfing pattern, change in character (ChoCH), or internal MSS.
📉 Potential Trade Idea:
If confirmation occurs, we can look to enter a sell position, targeting downside liquidity levels, such as previous swing lows or equal lows — where the market often hunts liquidity.
⚠️ Risk Reminder:
As always, avoid entering blindly. Let the market give you a clear sign. Use proper risk management, and stick to your strategy.
📚 DYOR – Do Your Own Research!
The market doesn’t guarantee outcomes. Your own analysis, patience, and discipline are your best tools.
Chart Patterns
Bullish reversal off overlap support?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 1.3412
1st Support: 1.3320
1st Resistance: 1.3517
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 98.29
1st Resistance: 99.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX H1 | Rising into a 50% Fibonacci resistanceThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 23,533.74 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 23,750.00 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 23,306.20 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Bitcoin H1 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 106,682.50 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 107,900.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 103,612.00 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullish pattern morphing into existence for OilWhat a beautifully bullish pattern morphing into existence for crude oil !!!
With price being contained for over 3 years below that continuation breakout line, the 12 quarter moving average is squeezing, putting upwards pressure.
Oh boy, this could explode anytime soon ;-)
when price consolidates, its just setting upLooking for a bigger moving going into mid week. Tues spent the entire day consolidating. Now im thinking we getting ready for a bigger move. Just trying to be patient and wait for it. Price should give us some kinda sign on what it would like to do as we coming into the Asian Killzone.
SILVERWith wars intensifying Israel vs Iran, Ukraine vs Russia global tension is rising fast. 🌍⚠️
In times like this, high-quality defense equipment becomes a top priority for nations.
And guess what?
Silver is a key component in military tech from drones and missiles to satellites and radar systems.
That’s why silver might be one of the smartest assets to diversify into right now.
Not just for protection against inflation,
but also as a strategic metal in a global defense race.
CHFJPY - NeutralStory : We can see Bearish divergence on 1H time frame, which seems to be diluted followed by the consolidation region. however, if we look for the Bullish continuation signals we have Dow theory (HH and HLs) and bullish rectangular pattern which most likely shows upside control of Bulls. However, we also expect the market to break the rectangular pattern and thus we can see the bears in control.
Anticipate: we wait until market indicates a clear breakout either bearish of bullish with good engulfing candle.
Plan : we place a sell stop and Buy stop simultaneously on a chart with the R:R of 1:1 and 1:2. on whichever side market moves, we close the other trade accordingly.
however my 1st preference is bearish i.e breakout of rectangular pattern downside.
XAG USD LONG RESULT Silver price has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle and has been holding the support Trendline also creating consistent Higher Lows and increase in Demand Volume, all bullish indications for the asset, which was why I took the long position from the breakout point, and it moved better than I anticipated🔥
_THE_KLASSIC_TRADER_.
EURO/USD a sharp bearish move is anticipated.Key Technical Elements
1. Market Structure
BOS (Break of Structure):
Clearly marked where price breaks a previous high, indicating a shift in market structure.
Order Block:
A bullish order block is highlighted after the BOS, where price later retests — showing smart money interest.
Demand Zone:
A prior demand zone helped fuel the breakout to the upside earlier on the chart.
2. Resistance & Supply Area
A resistance zone is marked at the top (approx. 1.16067), where price previously reversed.
A red short-entry zone (supply area) indicates a potential sell zone where price could react.
3. Support Zones
Immediate Support around 1.1500
Deeper Support around 1.13995
These levels are potential take-profit zones or retracement targets.
---
Trade Idea Highlighted
Entry Zone: Around 1.15579 (current price)
Bearish Expectation:
Price is expected to rally slightly into the red zone (supply).
After rejection from this area, a sharp bearish move is anticipated.
Targets:
First Support Zone (~1.1500)
Second Deeper Support (~1.13995)
---
Professional Commentary
This setup reflects a Smart Money Concept (SMC) strategy:
It uses order blocks, BOS, and liquidity zones to anticipate market direction.
The trader anticipates a lower high formation near resistance and a continuation to the downside.
Good use of confluence between structure, supply/demand, and support/resistance.
Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):1. Overall Trend (Short-Term):
From early June onward, the trend has shown a clear upward movement, especially after June 11, suggesting bullish momentum.
However, in the most recent candles (last 24–36 hours), there is a consolidation/sideways movement, potentially indicating a pause or reversal.
2. Key Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance Zone: Around 3,460–3,470 (the recent high before price pulled back).
Support Zone: Near 3,380–3,390, previously tested before the last push upward.
3. Price Structure & Patterns:
There was a strong rally from June 11–13, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
This could be forming a bullish flag or pennant, which often precedes a continuation upward if confirmed by volume or breakout above resistance.
4. Recent Candlestick Behavior:
Current candles are small-bodied with wicks on both sides — this suggests indecision or low momentum, often found before a breakout or reversal.
🧭 Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):
Bullish Continuation: A breakout above the recent high (~3,460) could resume the uptrend toward 3,500+.
Bearish Reversal: A drop below the 3,380 support area could trigger a correction toward 3,340 or lower.
📌 Note: Watch for upcoming economic events marked on the chart — especially those with the U.S. flag, as USD news often significantly affects XAU/USD.
Oil’s Surge Stalls at Descending TrendlineLast week’s surge in crude oil following the escalating conflict in the Middle East sparked a wave of momentum buying as traders responded to the rising risk premium. But with prices now testing a key technical barrier, let’s take a look at whether this rally has legs or if it’s already starting to fade.
Escalation Risk Remains, but Has the Market Overreacted?
The threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East has brought renewed focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through that narrow waterway, and fears it could be disrupted are never far from traders’ minds. While there’s no shortage of tension, and risks remain elevated, actual supply has not yet been affected in any material way. Tankers continue to move through the region, albeit more cautiously, and there are signs of behind-the-scenes pressure to prevent further escalation.
In that context, the initial spike may have been more about emotion than fundamentals. Markets are forward-looking, but they can also overreact. Unless there is a clear supply shock or direct disruption to infrastructure, the recent jump could start to lose steam as attention shifts back to broader economic factors. For now, it feels like much of the premium is already priced in.
Technicals: Rally Meets Resistance
The breakout last week saw crude oil push beyond a prolonged consolidation phase, catching the attention of short-term traders. However, strong trends take time to reverse, and the rally has now run into the descending trendline that maps the swing highs from April and January. That trendline held firm on the first test, and momentum has started to waver.
Yesterday’s session opened with a gap higher but couldn’t push above Friday’s high. Instead, prices pressed briefly into the trendline before reversing and closing lower on the day — a sign of short-term exhaustion. On the hourly chart, we’ve now got the early shape of a double-top pattern forming, which often suggests a loss of bullish conviction at resistance.
Given the elevated macro risk, volatility is likely to remain high. Traders looking to participate here should consider using the Average True Range to size their stops more effectively. With the rally showing signs of fading and resistance still intact, near-term price action looks vulnerable to further cooling unless the trendline is taken out decisively.
Brent Crude (UKOIL) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Brent Crude (UKOIL) Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATEUSDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATE
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅1H order block
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GOLD 3HR LINE CHARTUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
EUR/USD Bearish Reversal AnalysisEUR/USD Bearish Reversal Analysis 📉🧭
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Trend Structure:
EUR/USD was trading inside an ascending channel, respecting both support and resistance trendlines.
🔴 Double Rejection at Resistance:
Price action faced strong rejection near the upper boundary of the channel and resistance zone (~1.16500), forming a lower high, suggesting bearish exhaustion.
🟠 Key Breakdown Zone:
A critical horizontal support around 1.13560 has been identified as a short-term target zone. This level previously acted as a demand zone and now may be retested.
🔽 Forecast Path:
A projected bearish wave is anticipated:
A potential pullback or consolidation may occur before resuming the downtrend.
Once 1.13560 is broken, price could drop further toward the major support zone around 1.12000, marked by the previous accumulation area.
🟦 Support Zone:
This final target aligns with a major structural support from late May, strengthening the bearish outlook if the breakdown continues.
📌 Conclusion:
EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish reversal after failing to sustain above resistance. As long as it remains below the mid-channel region, further downside toward 1.12000 is likely, with 1.13560 as the key short-term level to watch.