EUR/USD: Navigating Turbulence Amid Trade War UncertaintiesThe EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0950 early in the American session on Tuesday, stabilizing after a few days of intense turmoil. The US Dollar (USD) is under mild selling pressure as the mood improved: global indexes trade in the green, recovering part of the massive losses posted after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. As time goes by, hopes that some deals could reduce the impact of levies increased.
Nevertheless, the trade war remains the main market topic, with speculative interest paying little attention to macroeconomic data, while maintaining the focus on the potential effects of US protectionism on worldwide economic progress and inflation.
And indeed, the trade war is far from over. Tensions remain high between Washington and Beijing, as the Chinese Commerce Ministry said they would “fight to the end.” At the same time, the Eurozone (EU) plans to hit the US with tariffs of up to 25% on a wide range of goods. The European Commission will propose targeting tobacco, steel, textiles, eggs, dental floss, poultry, and numerous other US exports to the bloc, as reported by Reuters.
The EUR/USD pair is up for a second consecutive day, although still trading below Friday's close at 1.0957. The bearish potential has decreased, but the odds for a firmer advance seem limited, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The pair remains above all its moving averages, although the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains flat at around 1.0860. Technical indicators, in the meantime, ticked higher with limited strength, with the Momentum indicator still stuck at neutral levels.
In the near term, and according to the 4 - hour chart, EUR/USD is in a consolidative phase with the risk skewed to the downside. Technical indicators remain within negative levels with uneven directional strength, still suggesting buyers remain sidelined. At the same time, a directionless 20 SMA provides intraday resistance at around 1.0996, while a flat 100 SMA lies in the 1.0860 region.
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Chart Patterns
Gold has adjusted in place and continues to be bullish!Today is the fourth day of gold's decline, and the price stopped falling at 2956, which is the previous high point. At present, the first round of gold's decline in the short term has been completed. After three days of sharp decline, many people panicked. Those who bought the bottom dared not to buy the bottom, and those who did not short should not chase the short position, as the main force will continue to wash the market! Today, the correction rebound is the main resistance, and the upper resistance is 3015, then 3030-25 and yesterday's high point 3045-55. There are many risks and many opportunities, which gives us too many opportunities, so I have been emphasizing risk control first recently.
GBPUSD M15 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the M15 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2770, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 1.2849, an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is placed at 1.2707, a multi-swing low support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
[_] ONENTRYONENTRY
First attempt !
GBP/JPY - ONENTRY ' 2Fib Strategy '
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Session: London Pre-Market (00:00 - 06:30 +2GMT)
Step 1: Identify the Overnight Range
Mark the high and low of the price range between 00:00 - 06:30 (+2GMT).
Wait for a clear breakout with a candle closing above (for longs) or below (for shorts) this range.
Step 2: Apply Fibonacci Levels
After the breakout, use the Fibonacci retracement tool:
Anchor Point 1: Start at the close of the breakout candle.
Anchor Point 2: Drag to the start of the impulse move (first candle of the range).
Key level for entry: 0.5 and 0.35 retracement.
Step 3: Trade Execution
Entry: Enter on a pullback to 0.5 and 0.35 Fib level after the breakout.
Stop Loss :
Long trades: Below the low of the breakout candle’s body.
Short trades: Above the high of the breakout candle’s body.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.0 Fib (1:1 risk-reward).
TP2: 1.25 Fib extension.
TP3: 1.6 FIB extension
TP4: 2.3 Fib extension (runner position).
Step 4: Trade Management
Move SL to breakeven when price hits TP1.
TLT Short Term OutlookHere we have TLT moving according to our previously published chart. We think TLT will move sideways, consolidating in the near future before finding direction. Although the outlook for TLT and the Bond Market is positive, in the near short term we may see a decline in the bonds market and choppy movements. We anticipate a zigzag move followed by a possible price retest of near $85 before bouncing back up.
XAU/USD) Bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
This chart analysis is for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the idea shown:
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Key Points in the Analysis:
1. Current Price:
XAU/USD is around $2,982.92 at the time of the chart.
2. Trend:
The chart suggests a bearish outlook.
Price has been consistently rejected from the yellow supply zone (around 3,020–3,033).
EMA 200 (blue line) is above the current price, confirming downward momentum.
3. Rejection Zone:
Marked in yellow between 3,020 and 3,033. Labeled as “Reject points”.
Price failed to break above this zone multiple times.
4. Breakout Pattern:
Two descending rectangles highlight bearish continuation patterns.
A bearish flag or wedge is visible, followed by a breakout downward.
5. Target Zone:
Highlighted in yellow between 2,900 and 2,921, with target point at 2,920.615.
Price is expected to move down to this level.
6. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is declining and shows bearish divergence, supporting downside move.
Currently around 39.19, which is closer to oversold territory but still has room to drop.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Area: Rejection near 3,020–3,033 zone
Target: 2,920.615 (highlighted support zone)
Stop Loss: Could be placed above 3,033 (supply zone or EMA 200)
Confluence Factors:
EMA 200 rejection
Bearish RSI divergence
Repeated supply rejection
Breakout from bear flag structures
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
EUR/AUD H1 | Heading into resistanceEUR/AUD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.8198 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.8320 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.7877 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBP/USD possible bear set up/sell offAscending wedge channel 70% of bear breakout. We have 3 HHs printed with a possible 4th. We are currently in a strong bear trend. So trading with the trend here. Biggest target is a daily target. If a certain support level breaks on the daily I will target the wedge channel fill from the daily.
Gold Rebounds Off Key Support — Next Leg to $4,200 = 124,000 PIP
View our previous 120,000 PIPs (target hit) Gold trades at the bottom of this page.
Following our previously fulfilled short trade from the top of the ascending channel (TP2 hit at $2,960), gold has now landed precisely at confluence support — aligning with the psychological $3,000 level, ascending channel support, the quarterly dynamic support, and the prior swing high zone. We are now flipping bias long, with a macro continuation in mind, while still respecting the shorter-term range structure.
Structure & Setup:
Another clean reaction from the ascending channel’s lower boundary reaffirms the structure’s technical validity. Price has now tapped the $3,000 round number support, intersecting with the channel base and our prior short target zone — offering strong risk-defined long opportunities.
Macro Context Holds:
Our long-term thesis targeting $4,270 remains intact, backed by structural breakout on the quarterly chart and fundamental gold demand. This move is potentially the start of the next impulsive leg in a broader macro expansion, though we expect the asset to oscillate within the channel boundaries until at least July.
Entry Logic:
This long setup is based on:
– Channel base bounce
– $3,000 psychological round number
- $2,960 quarterly dynamic support
– Reversal at former Take Profit 2 (TP2) short target
– Tight invalidation just below $2,960
– Favourable 1:11+ R:R targeting macro highs
Invalidation:
A clean break and close below $2,960 would invalidate the long thesis and suggest breakdown risk. Until then, structure holds.
Pip Potential:
From $2,960 to $4,200 = 124,000 pips upside potential — aligning with macro projections and Fib extensions from previous cycles (-1.414 & -1.618 zones).
Outlook:
While $4,200 remains our long-term target, we anticipate ranging between $2,960–$3,200 for the next several months. This accumulation phase may precede a breakout leg that targets historical Fibonacci confluence zones.
Summary:
Short trade complete — bias flipped long. We’ve now transitioned from a completed 1:4 R:R short into a 1:11+ macro long off textbook technical levels. Price action is behaving cleanly within the multi-month channel, and this latest support reaction adds further credibility to the bullish continuation thesis.
Let price consolidate — buy positions accordingly. The macro expansion to $4,200 is likely underway.
Previous Short:
75,000 PIP idea (Target hit):
45,000 PIP idea (Target hit):
Gold fluctuates sharply, with bears dominatingYesterday, the gold market experienced violent fluctuations again. After hitting a high of 3055 during the session, the gold price quickly pulled back to a low of 2956, showing extremely high volatility. Recently, the fluctuation range of gold has been large, with fluctuations of about $100 for three consecutive trading days. Although this volatility is not common, it has become the norm in the current market environment.
Analysis of the causes of fluctuations:
The current violent fluctuations in the gold market are mainly affected by the global economic situation, especially the uncertainty of the international trade situation. In particular, the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the extreme volatility of market sentiment have provided strong momentum for gold prices. After China introduced countermeasures to increase tariffs by 34%, the market's expectations of whether the US will further increase tariffs by 50% before the 8th have made market sentiment more tense. Due to the instability of the global economy, the trend of gold will continue to be dominated by market sentiment, and volatility will be difficult to calm down in the short term.
Technical analysis of the gold market:
Daily trend analysis:
Yesterday, gold once again showed a "roller coaster" market, opening low and moving high in the morning, but fell sharply again during the European session and finally closed negative. The 100-point fluctuation range for three consecutive days indicates that market sentiment is highly tense and gold prices are under great pressure.
On the daily chart, after three consecutive negative declines, gold prices formed a large negative line with an upper shadow longer than the lower shadow, which means that they may still face adjustment pressure in the short term. Nevertheless, the market is in an oversold state and there is a need for rebound correction. Therefore, the current lower support of gold prices is around 2955, which constitutes a short-term top and bottom conversion position.
Short-term price range:
As the market still has a need for rebound correction, gold is expected to enter a range oscillation phase. In the short term, the support level of gold prices is in the 2956-2960 range, while the upper resistance is concentrated in the 3025-3030 area. In the context of range oscillation, it will be more effective to maintain a high-altitude and low-multiple operation strategy.
Operation strategy suggestions:
Short layout:
When it rebounds to 3030-3035, you can consider shorting, with a stop loss set above 3040, and a target of 3000-2995.
Long layout:
If the gold price falls back to 2970-2975, it is recommended to consider going long, with a stop loss below 2965 and a target of 2995-3000.
Since the current market sentiment is driven by external economic events and the market has not fully digested the relevant risks in the short term, it is recommended to remain flexible in operation and pay attention to changes in market sentiment and trends driven by news at any time.
Risk warning:
Volatility: The current gold market is extremely volatile. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of breaking news and remain cautious.
Time factor: Even if the gold price fluctuates sharply under the impetus of news, as mentioned earlier, a wave of topping and falling is usually not completed in just three days. Market sentiment may continue to ferment, so the short trend may still need to continue for some time.
Conclusion:
In the current market volatility, it is recommended to adopt a range oscillation strategy and operate flexibly. In the short term, the gold price may fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 2956-3030. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple strategy can be appropriately used to arrange near the technical support and resistance levels. At the same time, keep a close eye on external news to avoid being affected by emergencies.
GBPUSD: Pullback From Support 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD is likely to pull back from a key daily support.
I see a strong bullish pattern on an hourly time frame -
a double bottom formation.
Goal - 1.2825
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Pullback to 80KMorning folks,
So, our long-term bearish journey that we were following for 4-5 weeks comes to an end. BTC more or less hit our 74K target and strong weekly support area .
The next one stands around 69K, but market strongly needs a new driving factor to break ~70K support area, and hardly this will happen this week.
Taking in consideration that market is oversold, now we set a tactical target- pullback to 80K resistance area , and then we will see, should be sell again or not.
GBP-USD Strong Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD made a bearish
Breakout of the key wide horizontal
Level of 1.2851 then made a
Pullback so we are bearish
Biased and a further bearish
Continuation is to be expected
Sell!
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BTC SHORT TP:77,200 07-04-2025⚠️ Despite its recent recovery, Bitcoin is showing bearish patterns on the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes. That's why I'm targeting a short at 77,300.
This analysis is based on those timeframes, so we expect it to develop in the next 12 hours; otherwise, it will be invalidated.
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ATOM: Double Bottom Confirmed – Gap Fill to $10 in Sight#ATOM nailed the perfect bounce from the $3.611 support, confirming a clean double bottom pattern. The structure looks strong, and the next major target is the $10 level for a potential gap fill.
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Entry: 4.2
TP: 10
SL: 3.3
EURUSD: Short Signal Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.0896
Stop Loss - 1.0939
Take Profit - 1.0808
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Island Bottom CONFIRMED on $SPY IF we GAP up tomorrow!Island Bottom CONFIRMED on AMEX:SPY SP:SPX IF we GAP up tomorrow!
I only believe we can GAP up tomorrow if there is news of China coming to the negotiation table with the U.S. after they raise the Reciprocal Tariffs to 104%.
If this doesn't happen, then this isn't confirmed, and we see a retest of $482, IMO!
I'm not playing this as a trade until we get confirmation! Too dangerous!
Not financial advice
BTCUSDTBitcoin seems poised for a notable shift following the completion of a classic technical setup. The price has recently pushed above a critical level and appears to be testing this threshold again, a move that often hints at further momentum. Should this pattern hold, we might see a robust climb toward higher targets, potentially well beyond current levels. Keep an eye out for signs confirming this direction.
Gold 100% Trading StrategyGold plummeted at the opening of Monday, reaching the lowest point of 2972, and then rebounded to 3055. We successfully placed a short order at 3052, and have already made a profit. The hourly moving average of gold crosses downward, and the short position is arranged, and it continues to open downward. So gold is now the home of the shorts. Gold rebounds or continues to short. Gold is now in a short trend below the gap. We continue to pay attention to the short-term suppression of 3055 above, and continue to short if the rebound does not break.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper short-term resistance is 3055, and the lower line is 3000-3008. In terms of operation, the rebound pressure at this position continues to be short and follow the trend to fall. It is necessary to rely on the rebound to rely on 3055-60 to go short once, and the lower target continues to break the bottom.
Gold operation strategy:
1. If gold rebounds to 3055-3058, short it, stop loss at 3066, target 3015-3020, continue to hold if it breaks;
2. If gold falls back to 3000-3006 but does not break, you can buy it, stop loss at 2993, target 3045-53, continue to hold if it breaks