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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-16 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's Up-Down-Up Pattern suggests the markets will transition into a moderate upward trending price bar - which is quite interesting in the world we have today. War and a big weekend of events, protests and other new items could drive market trends over the next few days. Still, the SPY Cycle Pattern for today is an Up-Down-Up - which suggests last Thursday was an Up bar, last Friday was a Down bar, and today should be an Up bar. The Gold/Silver pattern is a POP pattern in Counter-trend. I believe the US markets are benefiting as a safe-haven for capital as the global turmoil drives global investors to seek safety and security for their capital. That means as long as the world continues to spin out of control, the US markets and the US-Dollar will act as a moderate safe-haven for capital. Gold and Silver should also benefit from this global chaos. Bitcoin is benefiting from the strength of the US markets (and the technology sector) as well. Let's see how this week start to play out. I'm waiting for some more news. Could be very interesting this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern formingThis is a 30-minute (M30) chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar), showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern forming, which is a classic bullish reversal setup. Chart Description: Pattern Formed: Descending wedge is clearly drawn with: Lower highs and lower lows, converging between two trendlines. Price action is respecting both boundaries of the wedge. Current price is mid-range inside the wedge. Projected Price Path (Dotted Arrows): The chart suggests: A possible fakeout or final dip towards the wedge's lower boundary. Followed by a rejection and bullish breakout. Target would likely be above 3,392+, possibly aiming toward the wedge's origin zone (~3,408 or higher). Market Implication: This setup is typically bullish, especially if: Volume increases near the lower edge. Price fails to make a new low and starts printing bullish structure (HL → HH). Summary: XAUUSD is consolidating inside a falling wedge on the 30m chart, suggesting potential for a bullish breakout. Traders may anticipate one last liquidity sweep before a breakout toward higher resistance levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by King_Maker_FX
Cup & Handle Breakout - NAVINFLOURCurrent Price: ₹4,703 Technical Analysis: Cup & Handle Breakout Pattern: The provided chart for NAVIN FLUORINE INT. LTD. shows a pattern that resembles a Cup & Handle. The current price action indicates it is at or near a potential breakout level. Waiting for Confirmation: Your statement "Waiting for confirmation" is crucial. A confirmed breakout typically involves the price sustaining above the resistance level with strong trading volume. Immediate Target: ₹7,000 Time Frame: 6 months to 1 year. Fundamental Analysis: Sales (Revenue from Operations): Consistently growing over the years, from ₹486 Cr in Mar 2014 to ₹2,349 Cr in Mar 2025. Operating Profit: Shows a strong upward trend, from ₹66 Cr in Mar 2014 to ₹534 Cr in Mar 2025. Net Profit: Also shows consistent growth, from ₹68 Cr in Mar 2014 to ₹289 Cr in Mar 2025. EPS in Rs.: Increased from ₹13.47 in Mar 2014 to ₹58.19 in Mar 2025. This indicates healthy year-on-year growth in earnings. Compounded Sales Growth: Healthy growth with 14% (TTM), 17% (3 Years), 17% (5 Years), and 15% (10 Years). Compounded Profit Growth: Very strong growth with 25% (TTM), -7% (3 Years), and 20% (10 Years). The negative 3-year profit growth needs to be investigated, as the net profit has consistently increased in the past 3 years (258 Cr in Mar 2022, 375 Cr in Mar 2023, 270 Cr in Mar 2024, 289 Cr in Mar 2025). This might be due to a specific high base year or non-recurring items impacting the compounded calculation for that period. Return on Equity (ROE): Strong and consistent, with 12% (Last Year), 13% (3 Years), 14% (5 Years), and 16% (10 Years). Dividend Payout %: Consistent dividend payouts, with 21% in Mar 2025. Stock P/E: While not provided in the specific image for Navin Fluorine's fundamental ratios, based on the current price of ₹4703 and FY25 EPS of ₹58.19, the trailing P/E would be approximately 80.82. This is a very high P/E ratio, indicating significant growth expectations are priced into the stock. Corporate Actions & Latest News: Dividends: The company has a consistent history of paying dividends. Capacity Expansion/R&D: As a specialty chemicals and fluorochemicals company, corporate actions and news for Navin Fluorine often revolve around: New project announcements or capacity expansions to meet growing demand. R&D initiatives for new products or applications. Strategic partnerships or collaborations. Client wins in niche chemical segments. Q4 FY25 Results: The latest news would include the Q4 FY25 financial results, which show a Net Profit of ₹289 Cr. Company Order Book: For a specialty chemicals company like Navin Fluorine, the "order book" typically includes long-term contracts with key clients and new project wins. A growing sales trend suggests a healthy order pipeline. Overall Assessment: Navin Fluorine International Ltd. presents a fundamentally strong picture with consistent growth in sales and net profit, along with robust profitability ratios like ROE. This strong fundamental performance supports the company's premium valuation. The Cup & Handle breakout pattern is a bullish technical indicator. If confirmed with strong volume, it could potentially lead to the stock moving towards higher levels. Key Considerations: High Valuation: The calculated P/E of approximately 80.82 is very high. This means the market is already pricing in substantial future growth. The company needs to continue delivering exceptional results to justify and sustain this valuation. Confirmation of Breakout: It's crucial to wait for proper confirmation of the Cup & Handle breakout with strong volume to validate the technical signal. Profit Growth Anomaly: Investigate the negative "Compounded Profit Growth" for 3 years, despite the increasing net profit trend shown in the table. This might be a calculation anomaly or specific high-base effect. Given the strong underlying business, consistent growth in key financial metrics, and the bullish technical pattern, the immediate target of ₹7,000, while ambitious, could be plausible within the 6-month to 1-year timeframe, provided the technical breakout is confirmed and the company continues its strong fundamental performance. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in stocks, especially those with high valuations, carries inherent risks. Always conduct your own thorough research, carefully analyze the stock chart, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The stock market carries inherent risks.
NSE:NAVINFLUORLong
by sara54654
Bitcoin Strategic Compression, ETF Inflows and Powell’s Shadow.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD - Binance - (CHART: 12H) - (June 17, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $105,324.51. ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (12H): ▦ EMA13 – ($106,094.47): ∴ The arcane speed line was briefly reclaimed but lost again in the latest candle close; ∴ Price has consistently failed to close above EMA13 since June 13th, indicating weakening momentum; ∴ It now acts as primary dynamic resistance in the 12H structure. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA13 has been rejected. Bearish pressure remains in control. ⊢ ▦ EMA44 – ($105,907.07): ∴ Price is currently below EMA44, though recent candles show no strong bearish conviction; ∴ This level functions as a neutral battleground - a true trend emerges only with decisive close above or below; ∴ The slope remains positive, preventing immediate breakdown. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA44 is the structural balance line. Below it, weakness persists. ⊢ ▦ VWAP (Session) – ($106,117.67): ∴ VWAP sits above current price, reflecting rejection of institutional value; ∴ All recent attempts to reclaim VWAP failed, signaling lack of dominant buy-side volume; ∴ Confluence with EMA13 and Donchian upper band creates a unified technical ceiling. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional control remains absent. Value zone denied. ⊢ ▦ Donchian Channel (20) – ($106,690.95 / $102,854.49): ∴ Bands remain narrow, and price consolidates between mid-channel and the lower range; ∴ Upper band has been precisely respected for multiple sessions; ∴ This signals imminent volatility release from compression. ✴️ Conclusion: Volatility is fully compressed. Expansion is near. ⊢ ▦ Volume - (MA20: 154): ∴ Volume remains below the 20-period moving average; ∴ No strong buying or selling pressure confirms indecision; ∴ Market stands in strategic silence. ✴️ Conclusion: Low activity zone. Observation mode prevails. ⊢ ▦ Stoch RSI (3,3,14,14) – (21.38 / 27.27): ∴ Oscillator is crossing upward from oversold, but with weak momentum; ∴ Attempt to recover above 40 still incomplete; ∴ Risk of fakeout unless next candle confirms with bullish volume. ✴️ Conclusion: Reversal signal is weak. Watch for trap conditions. ⊢ ▦ MFI (14) – (31.86): ∴ Money flow index stays in low liquidity zone - no signs of accumulation from large players; ∴ No clear bullish divergence, yet no panic selloff either; ∴ The flat trajectory since June 10 confirms institutional disengagement. ✴️ Conclusion: Capital remains cautious. No inflow to trigger reversal. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight — Technical Oracle: ∴ Indicators show compression, rejection at $106K and lack of institutional momentum; ∴ Price structure is neutral-bearish with volume confirming indecision; ∴ A breakout would only be valid with strong candle body and +180 BTC/12H volume. ✴️ Conclusion: Tactical patience advised. Await true breakout with confirmation. ⊢ ∫ III. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Inflow Total – (All Exchanges): ∴ Total BTC inflows remain below 10K/day, well beneath panic thresholds; ∴ No spikes above 50K BTC since early April - aligns with neutral market conditions; ∴ This reflects dormant whale behavior and no visible distribution phase. ✴️ Conclusion: The market is in structural silence. No signs of capitulation. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Inflow Mean = (MA7) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 7-day moving average of inflow size dropped to ~0.4 BTC - a historic low; ∴ Indicates retail-dominant transactions, not whales; ∴ Precedents show this pattern often occurs before breakout events. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional wallets remain inactive. Momentum awaits external ignition. ⊢ ▦ Spot Taker CVD - (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day): ∴ Buyers still hold slight dominance, but the curve is flattening; ∴ This signals demand exhaustion and growing equilibrium; ∴ Historically precedes redistribution or longer sideways action. ✴️ Conclusion: Spot market is neutralizing. Demand fades. No clear strength. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ All on-chain indicators confirm weak momentum, low inflows, and diminishing spot demand; ∴ There’s no signal of heavy sell pressure - but also no engine for rally; ∴ This is the seal of silence: light flows, thin volume, no imbalance. ✴️ Conclusion: Market waits for external driver. Watch for catalyst. ⊢ ⧉ IV. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus: ▦ Middle East Tensions – Israel / Iran: ∴ Dow and S&P futures drop as evacuation alerts from Tehran raise global concern - (InfoMoney); ∴ Crude oil rises up to +2% - markets brace for supply disruption via Hormuz - (CryptoSlate); ∴ Global capital flows to Treasuries and gold, reducing liquidity in risk-on assets like BTC. ✴️ Conclusion: Geopolitical risk increases macro fear. Bitcoin faces risk-off inertia. ⊢ ▦ ETF Activity vs Macro Outlook: ∴ Despite $1.7B ETF inflows last week, price failed to hold key resistances - (CryptoSlate); ∴ This divergence reflects growing fear and fragile confidence in crypto exposure amid global tension; ∴ Institutional demand is present, but impact is diluted by macro noise. ✴️ Conclusion: ETF flows bring no clear edge under macro instability. ⊢ ▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming): ∴ Jerome Powell will speak on June 19 - expected to comment on rate pause and forward guidance - (Cointelegraph); ∴ Retail data weakens U.S. outlook, but Fed’s stance remains cautious - (FXStreet); ∴ The speech will likely reset volatility across all assets. ✴️ Conclusion: Powell’s message is the next global pivot point. Market waits. ⊢ ⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢ ⊢ ⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note: The current bias is neutral with a bearish weight; No validated entry present at this time; Volume must confirm any breakout attempt; The Seal of Silence remains active - we watch, not react. ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Magister_Arcanvm
Buy GoldPrice is at a major Daily resistance,but becuz of the war between Israel and Iran, price may spike below to take out traders, then continue pushing upwards. However , all this is possible if this region hold support, if it does, I'd look to see a pattern been formed on the 1hr tf that indicates bullish momentum, if this doesn't happen, then there's a previous weekly resistant that price may fall in order to tap. But the most important thing is having a good psychology, that's what makes you a good trader, we can say so much about the market direction,but it should be noted that, things do change, anything can happen, so while waiting for the right setup or while anticipation for buys, only those with a strong and disciplined mindset will survive the chaos... Happy Trading 💹
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by scalpking2021
GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block ✅15' order block ✅Intraday 15' break of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURAUD BUY OPPORTUNITY!✅ Bias: Bullish You expect a reversal from the downside and a strong upward move toward the marked target. 🧱 Order Block (OB): A bullish Order Block is clearly marked around the 1.76800–1.76687 zone. This acts as your demand zone, where you anticipate institutional buying. 📉 FVG (Fair Value Gap): A Fair Value Gap is highlighted just above the OB. This typically suggests an imbalance that price might come back to fill before moving up. 📈 Entry Setup: You're expecting price to dip into the OB/FVG area before triggering a long entry. From there, price is projected to shoot up to around 1.78215. 🎯 Trade Setup (Approximate): Entry Zone: 1.76800 (within FVG/OB) Stop Loss: Below OB (~1.76687) Target: 1.78215 Risk-Reward (RR): Roughly 1:4+, a high probability reward setup if OB holds. 🔔 Things to Watch: Entry confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing, BOS (break of structure), or displacement after mitigation. Liquidity grab: Ensure the dip doesn’t sweep below OB before reversing. Session Timing: This could play out better during London or New York session when volatility increases.
by ashif030
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering around the newly created FVG.🚨 BITCOIN MARKET UPDATE 🚨 Bitcoin has recently broken below the previous BPR (Balanced Price Range), signaling a significant shift in market structure. Along with this breakdown, a Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) has also formed — a strong indication that the market may be preparing for a further move to the downside. 📉 What This Means: The break below BPR, combined with the emergence of a bearish FVG, suggests that bearish momentum is currently in play. This is often a sign that the market intends to seek out lower liquidity zones, potentially targeting new lower lows. 🔎 Current Setup: At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering around the newly created FVG. If price retraces into this zone and gives us a clear bearish confirmation (such as a rejection candle, bearish engulfing, or other MSS confirmation), it could provide a high-probability sell opportunity. 🎯 Target: The primary target would be liquidity below the most recent lower lows. ⚠️ Risk Management Reminder: Always wait for proper confirmation before entering a trade. These setups are best traded using MSS (Market Structure Shift) or BPR strategies for higher probability outcomes. 📚 DYOR — Do Your Own Research! Trading involves risk. Ensure you have a strategy in place and never trade blindly.
Short
by Peter_Wade
AUDUSD(20250617)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Revised version of the Republican tax cut bill in the US Senate: It is planned to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion, and the overall framework is consistent with the House version. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6512 Support and resistance levels: 0.6597 0.6566 0.6545 0.6480 0.6459 0.6428 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 0.6545, consider buying, and the first target price is 0.6566 If the price breaks through 0.6512, consider selling, and the first target price is 0.6480
Long
by NuggetsWarriors
1