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BTCUSD - Short the trend why don't youWe're in the pivot, if you know what pivots are ykyk. Im not gonna explain it here. Rejection is weaker than initial rejection. I think you get the idea what happens next. Trend is still (DOWN) if bears can't read it then they are pretty bad at being bears. Beyond my understanding of the previous design of yesterdays price action. Harmonic confluence digital assets microstrategy, buzzword, fluff up text so this can be published. Inverse law beyond delta 0.618 ratio fibbonaci confirms next weakpoint gap fillation gann squares? Square gann hypo asset appreciation buzzword buzzword logarithmic venn diagram of the universe. Cast fireball.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HorseyTim
Traders MindsetLet’s talk about mindset! You hear everyone saying; mindset is the most important in trading. But what is having “the right mindset” ? Now here is a little secret. Mindset is not just being focused on the money. “I must be profitable”. No. Having the right mindset is having a set of attitudes. Quite literally the definition.. Mindset /ˈmʌɪn(d)sɛt/ noun (usually in singular) the established set of attitudes held by someone. How you approach the market is very important. Have a set of rules for yourself. - Do I have a trading plan? Having a trading plan is important. It helps you follow something day in and day out. - Do I have good market conditions? Having good market conditions is important as it helps you make more clear decisions. Trading in sideways markets usually ends badly. It forces the trader to become impatient and entering too soon, expecting a breakout to either side usually leads to loses. - Do I know the risk? Understanding the risk before you enter the trade is important. Majority of traders over-leverage, meaning they use high leverage thus being able to open higher lot size positions. That usually leads to blown accounts. Knowing what you are risking, eliminates a lot of the emotions. - Do I have any confirmations? Whether that’s a break, a pullback, fundamentals supporting your view that’s great! Having confirmations on your analysis or trade is important. - Is this trade forced? Am I being nervous before entering? Am I not sure? Am I gambling on this trade? Understanding your emotions is important. Ever felt like this when you opened a trade, knowing you shouldn’t and it instantly went against you? Avoid these trades. One more thing I would like to add. Ever been stuck to your screen 24/7? Lost sleep over a trade. Here is a fact. You watching the chart, won’t change its path. Sad truth. There is nothing wrong with following your trade, but if you are watching your losing trade, then I already know where it leads. You do too. Avoid this. Going back to the #1 rule. Know your risk before entering. Eliminate emotions. Having the right mindset is following your own rules and having a set of habits. Habits that help you to grow as a trader. Eliminate bad habits. Review your past trades. You all know why you lost a trade. But will you look for an excuse? “Ah the market did a liquidity sweep” or “market is manipulated”. The market is never wrong. You as a trader are. Don’t celebrate wins or mourn loses on your account. Treat it as your full time job. You have some good days, you have some bad days. You win, you move on. You lose, you move on. As long as you are following the trading plan, you will succeed. Understanding this, combined with experience will grow you as a trader. And guess what the by product of this is? Money. So don’t focus on money. Focus on self-growth, mindset, experience and upgrading your skillset of trading. Money will be the byproduct of your journey. Create your mindset plan. A set of rules for yourself. Try doing it for 30 days. Come back to this post and tell us if you have improved. Nothing or no one is stopping you from being a successful trader but yourself. It’s not the market and no it’s not the broker. Majority of traders quit after blowing a few accounts. The rest stick around for years but make no progress. Only a few % of them actually find the meaning behind it and succeed. What’s the secret? Signals? Prop Firms? Account managers? EA’s? No. Sure all these things can benefit you slightly. But what truly is the secret to being successful in trading? You! You are the secret. Understanding yourself, your emotions, your reactions to certain events. Trading is a mirror of you. An amplified picture of you. Are you impatient? Scared? Nervous? Greedy? Forex will amplify those emotions. The biggest battle you have to win is the battle with yourself. Not the market. Trading is easy, you have a trading plan, you stick to it. Sometimes you may have a loosing week, happens right? But as long as you are sticking to your strategy, understanding the market, using a positive R:R and understanding the importance of consistency you should be fine. But here is the hard part. Your reactions. Your emotions. Let’s take for example NFP Data release. Weeks or even months of progress can be wiped out due to irrational decisions during news. Don’t be that trader. Suppress your emotions, don’t get greedy. Take a jab at the market, but only after the data is out. Remember, no one is stopping you from being a successful trader, but yourself. A key element added to a traders mindset is PATIENCE . patience /ˈpeɪʃns/ (noun) - the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, problems, or suffering without becoming annoyed or anxious. That’s the definition of patience. Trading is a stressful field. Not only does your analysis have to be on point, you have to be focused, have a trading plan, use proper risk to reward ratio… so many factors and then comes the patience. We already know that the market always provides unexpected problems. It plays with our emotions, ranges, does not move, goes against us etc. How many times have you entered in a position and the price started to range, while you float in loss? You start doubting, you get scared and you close the position. Or even worse, you get stopped out. Later in the day you check the chart and you see your Take Profit (TP) would have been hit, but only if you were more patient? Or how many times have you had an A+ setup, everything was going to plan but you closed it early because you wanted to secure the profit? Being a good trader is hard, but it’s not impossible. Discipline is everything as well as patience. Without patience you are bound to lose. From talking to many people, you would be surprised at how many of them want to “flip” their account. “Do you think I can make 2000$ this week” with 1000$ in their account. We will always advocate for patience. Playing the long game. Consistency + patience will get you far. Check some of the last trades you did. Were you patient? Ask yourself. Majority can find themselves in these stories. Work on your patience, and you will get far. For example, check out this long-term analysis on XAUUSD (Gold) posted on January 9th. Now we did close it earlier, but we still managed to secure +500 pips (50$ price action) in 3 days of holding. Patience. This post was made due to a high request of people liking our minds, so it has all been posted in a single educational post. FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FxPocket
1
XAUUSD New Highs incoming ?! Below is a top‐down synthesis of your Weekly, Daily, 4‐Hour, and 2‐Hour analyses on Gold (XAUUSD), culminating in a comprehensive trading framework. The goal is to integrate the multi‐timeframe insights (trend, structure, order blocks, indicators) into an actionable plan—including key price levels, confluences, and triggers on lower timeframes for entries and exits. 1. Weekly Overview • Trend: The weekly chart remains bullish; higher highs and higher lows are intact. • SMAs are stacked positively (10 > 50 > 100 > 200). • The price has respected an ascending channel since mid‐year, with a recent bounce from the channel’s lower boundary. • Key Levels: • Major horizontal support ~2,112, aligning with a weekly order block (far below current price). • Potential break of structure (BOS) above the previous all‐time high ~2,792 could open the door toward 2,986 (weekly extension target). • Bollinger Bands: Price held the middle (20SMA) band; now approaching or slightly outside the upper band, indicating strong momentum but possible short‐term overheating. • Fibonacci Extensions: • Approaching 0.5 weekly extension (~2,780–2,790). • 0.786 extension aligns with the upper channel line near 2,950. • Momentum & Volatility: • RSI ~66–67, bullish but not overbought. • MACD histogram still slightly negative; signal lines well above zero. Bearish momentum is waning. • ADX ~40—a strong trend reading; slight sign of bullish exhaustion during recent consolidation, but potential for re‐acceleration if price breaks higher. • ATR ~80 indicates high weekly volatility. • OBV is making overall higher highs, confirming bullish accumulation, though it did flatten during consolidation. Weekly Bias: Bullish. The ascending channel and SMA structure support higher prices, with the next major hurdle at the prior all‐time high (~2,792). 2. Daily Analysis • Trend: Overall bullish but was in a sideways/consolidative phase after the 31st October high. SMAs remained up/sloping, and the 100SMA provided support multiple times. • Key Levels & Structure: • Potential overhead near 2,786–2,790, the 1.618 extension and prior all‐time high zone. • Strong daily demand/OB around 2,718–2,740. • A weekly channel line near 2,704, should 2,740 fail. • Bollinger Bands: Briefly poked above the upper band, then closed back inside—often a sign of a short‐term fade or minor pullback. • Volume Profile: POC ~2,650, smaller HVN at ~2,743. A break below ~2,724 could accelerate selling, but the daily OB and weekly channel line could catch price. • Momentum: • RSI near 69, bullish territory but close to overbought. • MACD is above zero and green, confirming an uptrend with decent momentum. • ADX ~23, rising modestly, indicating an emerging trend strength. • ATR is declining, suggesting the market is moving up but with less day‐to‐day volatility. • OBV is climbing, consistent with renewed buying pressure. Daily Bias: Bullish. Watching for either a continuation above ~2,786 or a pullback toward 2,740–2,720 if short‐term signals weaken. 3. 4‐Hour (4H) Details • Trend: Strong uptrend (10 > 50 > 100 > 200 SMA). Price recently tapped channel resistance near 2,786 and is now drifting lower to short‐term support. • Key Levels: • 4H OBs near 2,720–2,740, with local support around 2,763–2,770. • Horizontal levels: ~2,722, ~2,704 as next layers of support if the pullback deepens. • Bollinger Bands: A candle closed outside the upper band and then re‐entered, hinting at a near‐term fade or consolidation. • Momentum: • RSI divergence formed (lower RSI high while price made a higher high). • MACD above zero but histogram is “waning green,” indicating diminishing bullish momentum. • ADX still elevated (~40), but a gap between +DI and ADX suggests potential short‐term exhaustion. 4H Bias: Bullish but cooling. A modest pullback seems likely unless bulls quickly reclaim the local high. 4. 2‐Hour (2H) Insights • Trend: Uptrend is intact, with multiple bullish breaks of structure. SMAs remain positively sloped. • Key Levels: • Immediate 2H OB ~2,770 (current area) • Next potential support ~2,757–2,760 (BOS pivot) • Deeper support ~2,730–2,740 if the short‐term retracement extends. • Momentum: • RSI (~58) rolled over from 72 → short‐term weakness. • MACD has turned negative (bearish cross on histogram), reflecting a short‐term slowdown. • ADX dropped from ~28 to 26, showing slight exhaustion. • ATR ~7.6, modest intraday volatility. • OBV still generally rising, but short‐term flattening. 2H Bias: Still bullish in structure, but momentum is fading. A dip toward 2,757–2,760 or even 2,730–2,740 is possible before another attempt at 2,786+. 5. Synthesis & Confluences 1. Weekly & Daily remain decisively bullish. 2. Intraday Charts (4H & 2H) signal a near‐term pullback or consolidation around 2,770–2,757 after testing ~2,786. 3. Order Blocks & Channels: Multiple OBs and channel supports converge around 2,720–2,760. Breaking below 2,720 would be more concerning for the bullish structure. 4. Momentum: Higher timeframes are strong; lower timeframes show a mild loss of upside momentum. Hence, the primary outlook is uptrend continuation with a possible short‐term retracement to reset momentum. 6. Trade Plan & Positioning Primary Bias: Long (Buy the Dip) 1. Rationale • The long‐term (Weekly/Daily) and medium‐term (4H) structures are bullish. • A controlled pullback would likely be bought as higher‐timeframe participants re‐enter on dips. 2. Key Levels to Watch for a Long Entry • 2,757–2,760: If price forms a bullish reversal pattern (pin bar, engulfing) or a lower‐timeframe BOS back upward (e.g., on the 15‐min or 10‐min charts), that suggests dip‐buyers have stepped in. • 2,730–2,740: Deeper support if the pullback intensifies. Again, look for bullish price action signals or positive RSI divergence on lower timeframes. 3. Indicator Triggers • Look for RSI (on 1H or 15‐min) to cross back above ~50 from below, confirming renewed bullish momentum. • MACD on the 1H or 2H crossing from negative to positive histogram can reinforce a buy signal. • Market Structure: A small BOS (e.g., on the 10‐minute or 15‐minute) above the local pivot high in the 2,757–2,760 zone is often a clean entry cue. 4. Stop‐Loss & Targets • Stops: Set 1–2× ATR below the OB or channel support. For instance, if the 2H ATR ~7–8, place stops ~15 points below the entry level to reduce false triggers. • First Target (T1): Revisit the 2,786–2,790 swing high for a quick partial profit. • Second Target (T2): ~2,820–2,840 or the weekly channel near 2,950 if momentum reignites. Ensure at least 1:1.5 or 1:2 R:R. Alternate Scenario: Short (Counter‐Trend Pullback) 1. Rationale • If the market breaks below 2,757 decisively (on a 2H close) and momentum indicators remain bearish, a short‐term retracement trade could unfold. • This is against the primary Weekly/Daily trend, so caution and tighter stops are advised. 2. Entry Trigger • Confirm a lower‐timeframe BOS below 2,757 on, say, the 15‐min or 10‐min chart, plus a continuation pattern. • RSI/MACD staying negative could support the short. 3. Stops & Targets • Stop above ~2,770 or above the newly formed swing high, about 1–2× ATR. • Target (T1): ~2,740, aligning with 4H OB / channel. • Target (T2): ~2,720 if momentum is strong. • Must ensure a 1:1.5+ R:R to justify a counter‐trend trade. 7. Execution on Lower Timeframes (10‐min, 15‐min) • For long entries, watch the 10‐min or 15‐min chart as price dips into 2,757–2,760 (or 2,730–2,740). Look for: 1. Bullish Engulfing or Pin Bar. 2. BOS on a micro‐level (15‐min breaks above a minor swing high). 3. RSI crossing back above 50–55. • For the short scenario, the same approach applies but reversed: a break below 2,757 with no quick reclaim, plus negative momentum signals on the 15‐min. 8. Conclusion & Final Notes • The dominant trend from Weekly down to Daily is up. Thus, the highest‐probability setup is buying a dip into well‐defined support (OB + channel confluence). • Shorting is purely a short‐term strategy if critical support breaks and momentum flips negative on lower timeframes. • Always monitor the 2H/4H indicators for early momentum shifts, then refine entries on the 10‐15 minute chart. • Maintain sound risk management: risk no more than 1–2% per trade, place stops logically beyond structural levels or ATR multiples, and target at least 1:1.5 or 1:2 R:R. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your risk tolerance before entering any trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Solana: long term trends...GM gents! Take a look at the trends that are active in the monthly and quarterly timeframe in $SOLUSDT. The most optimistic long term scenario implies a 42 to 1 reward ratio, and gains worth more than 1700% from here... It's easy to be swayed by short term noise and miss out on these insane gains, I have helped many people achieve such results in the past and can do it again, make sure to follow me here and in my socials. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2